Russia invades Ukraine

[edwin_m]

Ukraine on the back foot against their properly equipped and trained units, such as the *cough* elite VDV managed to turn them back last time.

Why would they think it would work the second time?

It probably wouldn't, but they don't want to find out. Ukraine has to put troops and materiel into guarding a long northern border, which could more productively be used in active battles or new offensives elsewhere. If they left the border undefended then even whatever Russia and Belarus could scrat together could be enough to cause Ukraine a major headache.

 

[Annetts key]

I think Ukraine are well aware of this problem, as they have had forces along most of their northern border for some time. They are also putting up security fences and other defences in places. Obviously this will not stop a military force, but it does help to make it more difficult for individuals to wander into Ukrainian territory.

 

[Iskra]

And now talk of Russia leaving Zaporizhzhia NPP. It looks like Russia simply cannot cope with the constI tant bombardment.

On the other hand, I think we can expect an attack from Belarus at some point. Russia is building up forces there, and I increasingly suspect that their plan is either to try and seize territory in Western Ukraine (thus forcing Ukraine into a three-front war), or that they'll try again to attack Kyiv.

I still find it hard to believe that Belarus would enter the war, but perhaps Lukashenko has been told that the choice is to either comply or Russia will simply annex Belarus as a whole.

They tried that on Day 1 of the war and it didn't work. Without the element of surprise they stand even less chance. The terrain on the border is also not great. The Belarusian army is small, antiquated and would soon be annihilated, the Belarussian's know that too, which is why they aren't already at war with Ukraine.

 

[gingerheid]

On the other hand, I think we can expect an attack from Belarus at some point. Russia is building up forces there, and I increasingly suspect that their plan is either to try and seize territory in Western Ukraine (thus forcing Ukraine into a three-front war), or that they'll try again to attack Kyiv.

Between Belarus, Transnystria, the occupied lands and Russia proper, Ukraine has an awful lot of places to keep an eye on at the same time

I still find it hard to believe that Belarus would enter the war, but perhaps Lukashenko has been told that the choice is to either comply or Russia will simply annex Belarus as a whole.

I suspect it will become increasingly hard to identify Belarus and Russia as separate entities. The untold success of Russia's war in Ukraine is an occupation of Belarus that I don't see ending and that brings awkwardness to not very many miles at all from an EU capital (Vilnius).

 

[Iskra]

Between Belarus, Transnystria, the occupied lands and Russia proper, Ukraine has an awful lot of places to keep an eye on at the same time



I suspect it will become increasingly hard to identify Belarus and Russia as separate entities. The untold success of Russia's war in Ukraine is an occupation of Belarus that I don't see ending and that brings awkwardness to not very many miles at all from an EU capital (Vilnius).

A very pertinent point.

 

[brad465]

Between Belarus, Transnystria, the occupied lands and Russia proper, Ukraine has an awful lot of places to keep an eye on at the same time

Russia also have a lot of places to keep an eye on, albeit in different ways. They need to keep Belarus in line as a buffer authoritarian state, Azerbaijan and Armenia disputes involve Russian peacekeeping forces, and that has flared up in recent months, Kazakhstan is not politically stable either, and above all, they have to keep the areas within their own borders susceptible to conflict/breaking away in line, including most especially Chechnya, as well as their own population under control. That said, most of these will only become a major problem if/when Russia loses in Ukraine.

 

[Roast Veg]

Between Belarus, Transnystria, the occupied lands and Russia proper, Ukraine has an awful lot of places to keep an eye on at the same time

How is Russia supposed to resupply Transnistria? There's a reason such a staunch Russian ally hasn't entered the conflict, and that reason isn't going away any time soon.

The untold success of Russia's war in Ukraine is an occupation of Belarus that I don't see ending and that brings awkwardness to not very many miles at all from an EU capital (Vilnius).

It changes very little. Belarusian-Lithuanian relations have been approximately nonexistent since 1991, and Lithuania retains its Article 5 protection.

 

[Iskra]

How is Russia supposed to resupply Transnistria? There's a reason such a staunch Russian ally hasn't entered the conflict, and that reason isn't going away any time soon.

It changes very little. Belarusian-Lithuanian relations have been approximately nonexistent since 1991, and Lithuania retains its Article 5 protection.

It is quite important; Russia could absorb Belarus on Lukashenko's death. The buffer state no longer existing between Nato and Russia is a significant development.

 

[Roast Veg]

It is quite important; Russia could absorb Belarus on Lukashenko's death. The buffer state no longer existing between Nato and Russia is a significant development.

Why? I fail to see what purpose "buffer states" actually achieve in an age of intercontinental missiles.

 

[Iskra]

Why? I fail to see what purpose "buffer states" actually achieve in an age of intercontinental missiles.

I think the Ukrainians would have appreciated a buffer state...

Intercontinental missiles are a lovely weapon system, but are only a deterrent if people seriously think you will use them... ...which doesn't mean much against a macho dictator that thinks Western liberal democracies are intrinsically weak and scared to take decisive action.

 

[Trackman]

Just putting this out here as Biden seemingly wants to speak to Putin; what are the chances of a Christmas ceasefire?

 

[najaB]

Just putting this out here as Biden seemingly wants to speak to Putin; what are the chances of a Christmas ceasefire?

I'm not sure that it's quite right to say that Biden wants to talk with Putin, as much as it would be to say that Biden is trying to make it easy/easier for Putin to find a way to come to the table.

 

[gingerheid]

Low, I fear, as the Russian precondition for talks was Ukraine recognises the annexation of territory Russia hasn't even invaded. (Though also Russian and Ukrainian Christmasses are 6-7 January).

 

[brad465]

Just putting this out here as Biden seemingly wants to speak to Putin; what are the chances of a Christmas ceasefire?

Biden said what most world leaders not directly involved in a war would say, he doesn't want Russia to win, but he can't just say there are no conditions for peace talks as that would be highly undiplomatic and risk further escalation. He also said it likely knowing Putin would either not accept an offer, or in this case, make highly unsuitable demands that can easily be rebuked.

This could be significant:

Ukraine war: Russian military airfields hit by explosions

Three people are killed by explosions at the airfields, which Russia blames on Ukrainian drones.

www.bbc.co.uk

Several people have been killed in explosions at two Russian military airfields, according to reports.
A fuel tanker exploded killing three and injuring six in an airfield near the city Ryazan, south-east of Moscow, Russian state media is reporting.
Another two people are reported to have been hurt in an explosion at an airfield in the Saratov region.
It is not known what caused the blasts. Both areas are hundreds of kilometres from the Ukrainian border.
Long-range Russian strategic bombers are believed to be based at the Engels airbase in the Saratov region.
The Saratov regional governor said security forces were checking what he called "reports of an incident at military installations".
These reports - of two explosions at two different military sites - will fuel speculation that Ukraine may be behind them, the BBC's Russian editor Steven Rosenberg says.

 

[najaB]

This could be significant:

Ukraine war: Russian military airfields hit by explosions

Three people are killed by explosions at the airfields, which Russia blames on Ukrainian drones.

www.bbc.co.uk

It's about time they just outright banned smoking at Russian military facilities.

 

[Bletchleyite]

It's about time they just outright banned smoking at Russian military facilities.

Or maybe we should airlift them a load of cigarettes and matches?

 

[jon0844]

It's about time they just outright banned smoking at Russian military facilities.

Fuel tankers falling out of windows is a growing problem I'm told.

 

[DustyBin]

Biden said what most world leaders not directly involved in a war would say, he doesn't want Russia to win, but he can't just say there are no conditions for peace talks as that would be highly undiplomatic and risk further escalation. He also said it likely knowing Putin would either not accept an offer, or in this case, make highly unsuitable demands that can easily be rebuked.

This could be significant:

Ukraine war: Russian military airfields hit by explosions

Three people are killed by explosions at the airfields, which Russia blames on Ukrainian drones.

www.bbc.co.uk

I saw this on Twitter earlier, but it now looks to be official. Also, according to Twitter a third airbase has been hit at Shaikovka but that's not been reported by the mainstream media (yet anyway). Perhaps these attacks were pre-emptive of another wave of Russian strikes against Ukrainian cities and infrastructure?

Edited to add that there are now reports of widespread attacks against Ukraine (again Twitter is the source, nothing "official" just yet).

 

[Cloud Strife]

I'm not sure that it's quite right to say that Biden wants to talk with Putin, as much as it would be to say that Biden is trying to make it easy/easier for Putin to find a way to come to the table.

If the Americans want Putin to come to the table, then it's time to supply some serious hardware to strike at the heart of Russian operations. Giving Ukraine the ability to strike anywhere in Crimea at will would be a good start, as would giving them the technology needed to take down the Kerch Bridge once and for all.

Taking out the Crimean electricity supply would be a good start.

There's also the point that we should really be giving Ukraine the capability of building a serious amount of drones.

 

[gingerheid]

There's also the point that we should really be giving Ukraine the capability of building a serious amount of drones.

Things have been a bit silent re drones for a while. I wonder if Russia has worked out how to counter them effectively

 

[Cloud Strife]

Things have been a bit silent re drones for a while. I wonder if Russia has worked out how to counter them effectively

Apparently the initial hype over the Bayraktars was just that, hype. I've read an analysis somewhere suggesting that they weren't anywhere near as effective as first thought, and there was a report last week from the chief of the Indian Air Force saying that they weren't that useful in combat. It's why I think the only real option with them is to operate them in a swarm, so air defences cannot knock them all out.

I suspect this might also be why the US hasn't been in a hurry to supply them with US-built drones, because they don't want 'the enemy' to discover their limitations.

One interesting thing about this whole war is that we've seen some weapons prove themselves (HIMARS), and other weapons prove to be less than effective (the Bayraktar).

 

[DustyBin]

Apparently the initial hype over the Bayraktars was just that, hype. I've read an analysis somewhere suggesting that they weren't anywhere near as effective as first thought, and there was a report last week from the chief of the Indian Air Force saying that they weren't that useful in combat. It's why I think the only real option with them is to operate them in a swarm, so air defences cannot knock them all out.

I suspect this might also be why the US hasn't been in a hurry to supply them with US-built drones, because they don't want 'the enemy' to discover their limitations.

One interesting thing about this whole war is that we've seen some weapons prove themselves (HIMARS), and other weapons prove to be less than effective (the Bayraktar).

My understanding is that the Bayraktar was actually effective in the early days of the war, but only because the Russians didn’t bother to set up effective air defences (as they assumed they’d immediately establish air superiority and that the war would only last a few days). As soon as they got their act together (relatively speaking!) the slow, not particularly small, and un-stealthy Bayraktars became unable to operate effectively. At the end of the day they’re a cheap drone designed to operate against insurgents etc. as opposed to a peer adversary.

Edit:

There’s been another “careless smoking incident” at Kursk airfield this morning (first seen on Twitter but now mentioned on BBC).

 

[Giugiaro]

Concerning drones, even your run-of-the-mill DJIs have had much more success in Ukraine.

Long story short, what makes the drone appealing on the battlefield won't be the likes of the Bayraktar, but a swarm of cheap, expendable and relatively dumb drones, swarming the enemy and leaving them completely exposed.
Russia sent hundreds of kamikaze drones to cause the same kind of terror as the V1 and V2 did in London with the Nazis, and Ukraine is strapping hand grenades to drones and dropping them on trenches right over Russian soldiers.

The Youtuber Ordinary Things just went over this talking point a few days ago. It's worth a watch:

 

[brad465]

Zelensky and the "Spirit of Ukraine" have been awarded TIME Person of the Year 2022:

https://twitter.com/TIME/status/1600470652363866113

TIME's 2022 Person of the Year: Volodymyr Zelensky and the spirit of Ukraine


(TIME magazine front cover picturing Zelensky surrounded by different Ukrainian people in gatherings/professions)

 

[Trackman]

Zelensky and the "Spirit of Ukraine" have been awarded TIME Person of the Year 2022:

Well deserved.
Spits on the face of the 2007 winner.

 

[najaB]

Well deserved.
Spits on the face of the 2007 winner.

To be fair to Time, they do say "His final year as Russia's President has been his most successful yet..." Had it been his final year we wouldn't be where we are now.

 

[Class 33]

Putin today gives "rare update" on status of war. Says war could be a long process, and the threat of nuclear war is on the rise.

For god's sake Putin, just give up this pointless barbaric war and your umpteen threats of nuclear war will you!!!! Ukraine and the rest of the world doesn't need this any longer!!!!

 

[coppercapped]

Concerning drones, even your run-of-the-mill DJIs have had much more success in Ukraine.

Long story short, what makes the drone appealing on the battlefield won't be the likes of the Bayraktar, but a swarm of cheap, expendable and relatively dumb drones, swarming the enemy and leaving them completely exposed.
Russia sent hundreds of kamikaze drones to cause the same kind of terror as the V1 and V2 did in London with the Nazis, and Ukraine is strapping hand grenades to drones and dropping them on trenches right over Russian soldiers.

The Youtuber Ordinary Things just went over this talking point a few days ago. It's worth a watch:

Various Youtube and Twitter sources are claiming that the attacks on the airfields at Ryazan, Saratov and Kursk have been made by unmanned air vehicles ('drones') based on the Soviet era Tupolev Tu-141 (Wikipedia link here ) remaining in Ukraine after the collapse of the Soviet Union. This first flew in 1970 - 50 years ago - and was intended for battlefield reconnaissance, the idea it flew around taking pictures and then returned to base to get the photos developed. Nominally this model has long been withdrawn from service by the Russian forces being replaced by the Tu-143, a somewhat smaller aircraft.

What is significant is that the Tu-141 had a 1000km operating radius, so by replacing the cameras with a warhead and updating the navigation and targeting systems the Ukraine now has a platform capable of one way trips of up to 2,000 km... The attacks on Ryazan and Saratov were made about 2 hours before the Russian aircraft should have taken off for their regular attacks on the Ukrainian electrical grid system with the result that some 50% of the incoming missiles were not launched and the Ukraine air defence system was not overwhelmed; apparently only ten or so drones of the 70 that were launched got through. These missing 70 or so incoming missiles would have caused a lot more damage as most of these would have overwhelmed the defences and reached their targets.

If I have understood the history of the Tupolev design bureau correctly the Tu-141 was designed and made in Kharkiv when Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union. Oh, the irony!

Targets around Moscow and as far east as Yekaterinburg are now within range of Ukraine's military so I am not surprised that Putin called his weekly Friday security meeting early this week...

Edit: Wikipedia link added.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Various Youtube and Twitter sources are claiming that the attacks on the airfields at Ryazan, Saratov and Kursk have been made by unmanned air vehicles ('drones') based on the Soviet era Tupolev Tu-141 (Wikipedia link here ) remaining in Ukraine after the collapse of the Soviet Union. This first flew in 1970 - 50 years ago - and was intended for battlefield reconnaissance, the idea it flew around taking pictures and then returned to base to get the photos developed. Nominally this model has long been withdrawn from service by the Russian forces being replaced by the Tu-143, a somewhat smaller aircraft.

The USSR had drones in the 1970s???????

 

[Ediswan]

The USSR had drones in the 1970s???????

UAVs (drones) of one sort or another have been around since WWI.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_unmanned_aerial_vehicles#World_War_I

The first pilotless aircraft were built during World War I. From a suggestion that A. M. Low’s expertise in early television and radio technology be used to develop a remotely controlled pilotless aircraft to attack the Zeppelins[11][12] a remarkable succession of British drone weapons in 1917 and 1918 evolved.