Russia invades Ukraine

[najaB]

The USSR had drones in the 1970s?

Yes. Why is that surprising?

 

[Ediswan]

Yes. Why is that surprising?

It may come as surprise to some because in the 1970s the likes of the TU-141 were not referred to as "drones". For many years, the term "drone" was only used for a limited variety of UAVs. From recollection, the relatively dumb variety. The term "target drone" was fairly common. It is only relatively recently that the terms "drone" and "UAV" have become close to synonymous. (There was a rearguard campaign to prevent the re-purposing of the term "drone". If failed.)

 

[DynamicSpirit]

UAVs (drones) of one sort or another have been around since WWI.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_unmanned_aerial_vehicles#World_War_I

Wow, that's interesting. Somewhat boggles the mind at the human ingenuity to be attempting to build unmanned aircraft in 1917! Seems hard to imagine that the technology of the time could have been at all up to it.

 

[ainsworth74]

If I have understood the history of the Tupolev design bureau correctly the Tu-141 was designed and made in Kharkiv when Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union. Oh, the irony!

It's arguable that one of the reasons that Russia wants Ukraine back is to regain the factories/shipyards and design bureau's that were lost with the break up of the Soviet Union. Kharkiv in particular has (or maybe had sadly) big facilities which historically produced all sorts of vehicles, designed others for assembly elsewhere as well as a variety of engines. Mykolaiv hosts major shipyards which can build large ships (and built Moskva which was sunk by Ukrainian forces as well as Russia's only aircraft carrier). Antonov is based in Ukraine (at Hostomel which was scene of heavy fighting in the first few days) who have designed, built and operate some of the largest transport aircraft in the world.

I, personally, strongly suspect that one of the big reasons that Putin and his cronies wanted Ukraine back was to get back these crucial industries into the fold. Though I fear the state of them now seeing as Russia has clearly decided that if they can't have Ukraine then they'll inflict as much damage as possible upon it instead.

 

[nw1]

They tried that on Day 1 of the war and it didn't work. Without the element of surprise they stand even less chance. The terrain on the border is also not great. The Belarusian army is small, antiquated and would soon be annihilated, the Belarussian's know that too, which is why they aren't already at war with Ukraine.

Also Belarus would be universally loathed by the international community if they acted as Putin's sycophants in attacking Ukraine, and would never withstand the embargoes and boycotts placed on it as a result.

 

[ainsworth74]

Also Belarus would be universally loathed by the international community if they acted as Putin's sycophants in attacking Ukraine, and would never withstand the embargoes and boycotts placed on it as a result.

Well in that circumstance they'd just be folded back into Russia proper. I do wonder if the reason that so many Belarussian politicians appear to be dying unexpectedly at the moment is that the ground work is being laid for a formal "mutually agreed" annexation to occur.

 

[takno]

I, personally, strongly suspect that one of the big reasons that Putin and his cronies wanted Ukraine back was to get back these crucial industries into the fold. Though I fear the state of them now seeing as Russia has clearly decided that if they can't have Ukraine then they'll inflict as much damage as possible upon it instead.

A lot of the value is in the people and the knowledge, although of course that may be as badly damaged and scattered as the factories themselves.

Whether this is worse than the damage they'd suffer under even 5 years or so of Putin-led cronyism is questionable. The state of the Russian armed forces suggests that they can't hold any kind of organisation together

 

[nw1]

Well in that circumstance they'd just be folded back into Russia proper. I do wonder if the reason that so many Belarussian politicians appear to be dying unexpectedly at the moment is that the ground work is being laid for a formal "mutually agreed" annexation to occur.

As in, anti-regime Belarussian politicians being bumped off? (Genuinely not sure, but if that is the plan, it wouldn't surprise me...)

 

[Giugiaro]

Wow, that's interesting. Somewhat boggles the mind at the human ingenuity to be attempting to build unmanned aircraft in 1917! Seems hard to imagine that the technology of the time could have been at all up to it.

As long as radio existed, you just needed a way to turn radio signals into mechanical inputs to control anything from a distance.

Nikola Tesla demonstrated his remote controlled boat in 1898, which was basically wizardry at the time. WWI was essentially 15 years later, and we know from experience what 15 years can do to technology.

The only two big things that caused issues to UAVs at the time was the lack of proper tele-vision or some sort of artificial intelligence.

 

[najaB]

As long as radio existed, you just needed a way to turn radio signals into mechanical inputs to control anything from a distance.

Nikola Tesla demonstrated his remote controlled boat in 1898, which was basically wizardry at the time. WWI was essentially 15 years later, and we know from experience what 15 years can do to technology.

The only two big things that caused issues to UAVs at the time was the lack of proper tele-vision or some sort of artificial intelligence.

You didn't even need radio. The V1 buzz bombs were basically UAVs that flew a preprogrammed route.

 

[swt_passenger]

Putin is now defending the strikes against Ukraine’s infrastructure on the basis that he didn’t start it. So that’s ok then…

 

[Annetts key]

With regards to UAVs and drones, as electronics has improved, so has the abilities and accuracy. Be that internal inertial navigation systems or combined with GPS, radio control links, or terrain following.

And as the power requirements have fallen, plus the size and weight of the electronic systems, that allows for more fuel or a larger warhead.

And of course, modern warheads are available that are substantially better than in the past.

 

[DustyBin]

The latest “careless smoking incident” occurred overnight in a shopping mall in Moscow. I’m not sure what started the initial fire(s) or what subsequently goes boom (it’s a big boom!) but there are an awful lot of accidents happening in Russia of late!

 

[edwin_m]

The latest “careless smoking incident” occurred overnight in a shopping mall in Moscow. I’m not sure what started the initial fire(s) or what subsequently goes boom (it’s a big boom!) but there are an awful lot of accidents happening in Russia of late!

The "smoking incidents" have all been at Russian military facilities, and I can't see the Ukrainians targeting something like this because they know it will damage their case for no military gain. No doubt the Russian side will be making those accusations, and I suppose we may even have a false flag operation here.

 

[Annetts key]

It is possible that an incident happened due to some reason that has nothing to do with the war, but although not a deliberate act by Ukraine or people sympathetic to Ukraine, and not a deliberate false flag operation by Russia, it will still be blamed on Ukraine by Russia.

 

[dosxuk]

Wow, that's interesting. Somewhat boggles the mind at the human ingenuity to be attempting to build unmanned aircraft in 1917! Seems hard to imagine that the technology of the time could have been at all up to it.

By World War Two, we'd progressed to far more advanced technology - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Pigeon

During World War II, Project Pigeon (later Project Orcon, for "organic control") was American behaviorist B. F. Skinner's attempt to develop a pigeon-controlled guided bomb.

 

[DustyBin]

The "smoking incidents" have all been at Russian military facilities, and I can't see the Ukrainians targeting something like this because they know it will damage their case for no military gain. No doubt the Russian side will be making those accusations, and I suppose we may even have a false flag operation here.

We don't know the actual cause, obviously.

I think generally there are four kinds of "careless smoking incident":

1. Attacks on military facilities etc. carried out by Ukraine.

2. Incidents involving infrastructure, buildings etc. probably as a result of some kind of partisan activity.

3. Actual accidents, which of course can and do happen.

4. Potential false flags as you've stated.

Some incidents are obviously the result of 1 in particular, but we'll probably never know the truth behind a lot of the others.

 

[Giugiaro]

By World War Two, we'd progressed to far more advanced technology - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Pigeon

They used the same principle in the US Coast Guard "Project Sea Hunt" for search and rescue missions.

 

[Trackman]

We don't know the actual cause, obviously.

I think generally there are four kinds of "careless smoking incident":

1. Attacks on military facilities etc. carried out by Ukraine.

2. Incidents involving infrastructure, buildings etc. probably as a result of some kind of partisan activity.

3. Actual accidents, which of course can and do happen.

4. Potential false flags as you've stated.

Some incidents are obviously the result of 1 in particular, but we'll probably never know the truth behind a lot of the others.

At first they thought it was arson, officials are now saying 'a welding incident'

 

[gingerheid]

A shopping centre recently emptied of western shops could also be an insurance job.

 

[DustyBin]

A shopping centre recently emptied of western shops could also be an insurance job.

Yes I saw that mentioned elsewhere, it certainly sounds feasible!

 

[Loppylugs]

A shopping centre recently emptied of western shops could also be an insurance job.

Highly probable. The bloke that now owns it bought it for the equivalent of 8 quid!

 

[Cdd89]

Contrary to his earlier statements, Putin is now making some statements around finding a settlement:

Putin suggests possibility of settlement to end war in Ukraine

Russian president still claims ‘special military operation’ going to plan during Kyrgyzstan press conference

www.theguardian.com

“The settlement process as a whole, yes, it will probably be difficult and will take some time. But one way or another, all participants in this process will have to agree with the realities that are taking shape on the ground,” the Russia (https://www.theguardian.com/world/russia) president said during remarks at a press-conference in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan.

The remarks came just days after Putin appeared to be girding Russians for a protracted war in Ukraine, saying that his military operation could be a “long-term process”. Initially, Russian commanders expected the war would last just a matter of weeks before a Russian victory, according to plans captured at the beginning of the war
. It is now in its 10th month and Russia has been forced to retreat for several months.

I think “all participants” is an interesting term, since that includes Russia.

It also implies that he thinks an impasse is being reached in terms of military developments on the ground (whether Ukraine agrees with this will likely determine whether settlement discussions are fruitful).

 

[edwin_m]

We don't know the actual cause, obviously.

I think generally there are four kinds of "careless smoking incident":

1. Attacks on military facilities etc. carried out by Ukraine.

2. Incidents involving infrastructure, buildings etc. probably as a result of some kind of partisan activity.

3. Actual accidents, which of course can and do happen.

4. Potential false flags as you've stated.

Some incidents are obviously the result of 1 in particular, but we'll probably never know the truth behind a lot of the others.

Any actual or staged attack on the Russian military, unless 100% repulsed, makes them look weak. This is in the eyes of their own people, to Ukraine, and to the other nations that surround Russia and have intentions that they haven't been able to follow up due to fear of Russian intervention. A false flag operation against a civilian target has none of these downsides and is more likely to create public support domestically and internationally. The same applies to falsely claiming Ukrainian involvement if it is a genuine accident.

Contrary to his earlier statements, Putin is now making some statements around finding a settlement:

Putin suggests possibility of settlement to end war in Ukraine

Russian president still claims ‘special military operation’ going to plan during Kyrgyzstan press conference

www.theguardian.com

I think “all participants” is an interesting term, since that includes Russia.

It also implies that he thinks an impasse is being reached in terms of military developments on the ground (whether Ukraine agrees with this will likely determine whether settlement discussions are fruitful).

Saying something like this is a win-win for Putin. If people actually fall for it then the result would be a ceasefire that allows Russia to regroup, consolidate their defences, and bring more mobilised troops into the field. If Ukraine refuses then it makes them look unreasonable in the eyes of some.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Well in that circumstance they'd just be folded back into Russia proper. I do wonder if the reason that so many Belarussian politicians appear to be dying unexpectedly at the moment is that the ground work is being laid for a formal "mutually agreed" annexation to occur.

The thing with annexation is that it may not be so simple to execute. The Belarusian security forces are not particularly enthusiastic about union with Russia, as witnessed by the way that the two countries (still) don't have a common visa space.

 

[ainsworth74]

The thing with annexation is that it may not be so simple to execute. The Belarusian security forces are not particularly enthusiastic about union with Russia, as witnessed by the way that the two countries (still) don't have a common visa space.

Sure, I doubt it would be easy. After all we're only a few years removed from massive pro-democracy protests and I doubt that a) that sentiment has substantially changed nor b) that they'd be happy being Russian! But since when has whether something is a good idea or indeed practical stopped Putin and his cronies?

 

[Cdd89]

Saying something like this is a win-win for Putin. If people actually fall for it then the result would be a ceasefire that allows Russia to regroup, consolidate their defences, and bring more mobilised troops into the field

If a settlement is viewed as a scam that people would be “falling for”, then I suppose the war is destined to go on forever. I am a little more optimistic, though.

 

[jon0844]

If a settlement is viewed as a scam that people would be “falling for”, then I suppose the war is destined to go on forever. I am a little more optimistic, though.

I expect Russia will be given something at the end of the day, as Putin needs a way to save face. If he can't get a win of sorts (and declare that this was the objective of the operation) then we are set for things to carry on forever.

 

[Cloud Strife]

I expect Russia will be given something at the end of the day, as Putin needs a way to save face. If he can't get a win of sorts (and declare that this was the objective of the operation) then we are set for things to carry on forever.

I do wonder if the end result won't be the reintegration of Donetsk/Luhansk into Ukraine, with Crimea being still under Russian control but with NATO weapons surrounding it, along with Belarus finally becoming part of Russia. It might be a realistic outcome in the end, as the former "LDPR" is in economic ruin.

But before that, I fully expect a Russian kamikaze attack on Western Ukraine from Belarus.

 

[brad465]

Reports of a Russian base attack in Melitopol, a sign that Ukraine could try to push for the coast in that area and split Russian forces:

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1601658989582102528

Melitopol right now. Allegedly 8 hits were recorded which sounded like HIMARS projectiles.

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1601671273452822528

More than 10 powerful explosions hit Russian barracks in occupied Melitopol, Zaporizhzhia Oblast

Now got BBC reporting:

Ukraine war: Exiled governor reports strike on 'Wagner HQ'

Kyiv's forces hit a hotel used by the Russian mercenary group, a Ukrainian official says.

www.bbc.co.uk

Southern Ukraine has been hit by strikes from both sides in the war, with Russia launching drones at Odesa and Kyiv fighting back in Melitopol.
The Ukrainian army said it shot down 10 drones on Saturday but another five had hit energy facilities, leaving some 1.5 million people without power.
Later on, the exiled Ukrainian mayor of Melitopol said a strike had been carried out on the Russia-held city.
Images shared by a Russia-installed official there show a big fire.
Russia's drone attack on the Ukrainian port city of Odesa saw Moscow fire Iran-made drones at key infrastructure, Ukrainian officials said.
"The situation in the Odesa region is very difficult," President Volodymyr Zelensky said in his nightly video address. "Unfortunately the hits were critical, so it takes more than just time to restore electricity. It doesn't take hours, but a few days."
Since October, Moscow has been targeting Ukraine's energy infrastructure with large waves of missile and drone strikes.
In Melitopol, pro-Moscow authorities said a missile attack had killed two people and injured 10, while Ivan Fedorov, the exiled mayor, said scores of "invaders" had been killed.
"Air defence systems destroyed two missiles, four reached their targets," Yevgeny Balitsky, the Moscow-appointed governor of the occupied part of the Zaporizhzhia region, said on the Telegram messaging app.
He added that a "recreation centre" where people were dining had been destroyed in the Ukrainian attack with Himars missiles.
Occupied by Russia since March, Melitopol has been described as key to the defence of the south by Oleksiy Arestovych, an advisor to President Zelensky.
"All logistics linking the Russian forces on the eastern part of the Kherson region and all the way to the Russian border near Mariupol is carried out through it," Arestovych said in a video interview on social media.
"If Melitopol falls, the entire defence line all the way to Kherson collapses. Ukrainian forces gain a direct route to Crimea."