Russia invades Ukraine

[DustyBin]

There's two ways of looking at this: one is an act of desperation on the part of Putin, the other is that North Korea will be used as a means for China to supply Russia indirectly to try and cover their tracks.

That’s a good point actually, or alternatively China replaces the supplied/donated NK kit with newer stuff which is even more indirect.

The question of how much China really wants to help Russia remains, however.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

If Russia gets North Korean-manufactured kit, then I wouldn't be too surprised if it mostly turns out not to work properly. If China gets indirectly involved in supplying either country, then that would be much worse, since I imagine Chinese equipment is well made and reliable.

Not particularly good news either way.

 

[najaB]

If China gets indirectly involved in supplying either country, then that would be much worse, since I imagine Chinese equipment is well made and reliable.

The low-tech stuff (mortars, artillery shells, etc.) yes. The high-tech stuff is questionable since the CCP generally single-sources their military equipment which, while it does reduce pork-barrel procurement, means that there is zero incentive to produce high-quality equipment.

 

[dgl]

The low-tech stuff (mortars, artillery shells, etc.) yes. The high-tech stuff is questionable since the CCP generally single-sources their military equipment which, while it does reduce pork-barrel procurement, means that there is zero incentive to produce high-quality equipment.

Though arguably there is a very good reason to make high quality kit, that being what will happen to you if the equipment you supply is found to be lacking, a bit more than a strong ticking off methinks!

 

[birchesgreen]

Fascinating, not something to really do if things are going well...

Cuba uncovers human trafficking of Cubans to fight for Russia in Ukraine

Cuba has uncovered a human trafficking ring that coerced its citizens to fight for Russia in the war in Ukraine, its foreign ministry said, adding that Cuban authorities were working to "neutralize and dismantle" the network.

www.reuters.com

Cuba uncovers human trafficking of Cubans to fight for Russia in Ukraine​

HAVANA, Sept 4 (Reuters) - Cuba has uncovered a human trafficking ring that has coerced its citizens to fight for Russia in the war in Ukraine, its foreign ministry said on Monday, adding that Cuban authorities were working to "neutralize and dismantle" the network.

The statement from Cuba's foreign ministry gave few details, but noted the trafficking ring was operating both within the Caribbean island nation, thousands of miles from Moscow, and in Russia.

"The Ministry of the Interior...is working on the neutralization and dismantling of a human trafficking network that operates from Russia to incorporate Cuban citizens living there, and even some from Cuba, into the military forces participating in war operations in Ukraine," the Cuban government statement said.

The Russian government has not commented on the allegations.

Russia last year announced a plan to boost the size of its armed forces by more than 30% to 1.5 million combat personnel, a lofty goal made harder by its heavy but of yet undisclosed casualties in the war.

In late May, a Russia newspaper in Ryazan city reported that several Cuban citizens had signed contracts with Russia's armed forces and had been shipped to Ukraine in return for Russian citizenship.

It was not immediately clear if the Cuban foreign ministry statement was associated with the Ryazan report.

But Cuba's government said it had already begun prosecuting cases in which its citizens had been coerced into fighting in Ukraine.

 

[najaB]

Fascinating, not something to really do if things are going well...

Cuba uncovers human trafficking of Cubans to fight for Russia in Ukraine

Cuba has uncovered a human trafficking ring that coerced its citizens to fight for Russia in the war in Ukraine, its foreign ministry said, adding that Cuban authorities were working to "neutralize and dismantle" the network.

www.reuters.com

First DPRK, then Cuba. Which will be the next ex-Soviet satellite state that Putin has to go to cap in hand?

 

[1D54]

How many are there that would be or are in a position to help them? Maybe a couple in Central Asia but that is surely your lot.

 

[edwin_m]

First DPRK, then Cuba. Which will be the next ex-Soviet satellite state that Putin has to go to cap in hand?

From the linked text, the Cuban authorities are trying to stop this happening, so it's not officially sanctioned (or possibly it was agreed between the governments but the Cubans have changed their minds). I guess there are a fair number of Soviet/Russian sympathisers in Cuba who might be open to persuasion to participate.

 

[brad465]

From the linked text, the Cuban authorities are trying to stop this happening, so it's not officially sanctioned (or possibly it was agreed between the governments but the Cubans have changed their minds). I guess there are a fair number of Soviet/Russian sympathisers in Cuba who might be open to persuasion to participate.

It also shows how bad the Russian regime is that Cuba can take the moral high ground on something.

 

[wilbers]

It would appear there are (unfortunately) now 13 rather than 14 Challenger 2 tanks in Ukraine.

British Challenger 2 tank hit in Ukraine

A video shared on social media appears to show a damaged British-made Challenger 2 tank.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[najaB]

It would appear there are (unfortunately) now 13 rather than 14 Challenger 2 tanks in Ukraine.

British Challenger 2 tank hit in Ukraine

A video shared on social media appears to show a damaged British-made Challenger 2 tank.

www.bbc.co.uk

That very much depends on how much damage was actually done. Some of the Leopards were hit but have been repaired and are back in service. Western reactive armour is actually effective, unlike Russian where in many cases the explosives have been removed and sold on the black market.

 

[Gloster]

It would appear there are (unfortunately) now 13 rather than 14 Challenger 2 tanks in Ukraine.

British Challenger 2 tank hit in Ukraine

A video shared on social media appears to show a damaged British-made Challenger 2 tank.

www.bbc.co.uk

It is in the nature of war that such things happen. It will be a nasty shock for the ‘hurrah, hurrah, we have solved the problem in one fell swoop,’ brigade, but material and human resources get used up and need replacement.

 

[Mogster]

That very much depends on how much damage was actually done. Some of the Leopards were hit but have been repaired and are back in service. Western reactive armour is actually effective, unlike Russian where in many cases the explosives have been removed and sold on the black market.

Its upright, the turret is still on, there doesn’t seem to be significant hull damage. There are RTR people on Twitter suggesting the crew would have been OK and it could be driving around again pretty soon. It’s difficult to comprehend how tough these vehicles are, they are designed to be hit, protect the crew, then be fixed close to the front and returned to action quickly. I seem to remember the CR2 that was immobilised in Iraq and attacked repeatedly with RPGs and a couple of ATGM was back in service in days.

If the tank can’t be fixed then it needs to be secured and dragged back home for investigation. Even if all 14 are destroyed beyond repair eventually the potential for learning is immense.

 

[dakta]

TBH they won't be invincible, so i'm surprised if there's any real shock that ultimately there's losses. It likely won't be the last.

if it is lost, what has it cost the russians to get to the point where they can say they've taken one?

It's not nice news, but it's not a gamechanger either.

 

[DustyBin]

That very much depends on how much damage was actually done. Some of the Leopards were hit but have been repaired and are back in service. Western reactive armour is actually effective, unlike Russian where in many cases the explosives have been removed and sold on the black market.

It’s hard to tell, but if it’s intact and hasn’t “exploded” it’s may well be repairable. The way ammunition is stored in western tanks vs their Russian equivalents is a significant advantage if hit, as the turret-throwing T-72s have demonstrated.

I may have missed something, but do we know what kind of reactive armour the donated Challenger 2s actually have? I suspect it’s not the full UK spec?

It is in the nature of war that such things happen. It will be a nasty shock for the ‘hurrah, hurrah, we have solved the problem in one fell swoop,’ brigade, but material and human resources get used up and need replacement.

Exactly. At the end of the day these tanks have entered a full blown peer conflict (I think we can call it that now), in which they’re advancing against well prepared positions with no air support. It’s as hostile an environment as one could imagine and they’re going to get hit. That said, the crew got out and the tank may well be repairable, so it’s not all bad news by any means.

 

[edwin_m]

I saw a report that it had hit a mine, puncturing a fuel tank and immobilising it. The crew then abandoned it and Russia later hit it with a drone.

 

[ainsworth74]

Exactly. At the end of the day these tanks have entered a full blown peer conflict (I think we can call it that now), in which they’re advancing against well prepared positions with no air support. It’s as hostile an environment as one could imagine and they’re going to get hit. That said, the crew got out and the tank may well be repairable, so it’s not all bad news by any means.

I think that last part is the crucial one. We'd of course love for our weapons and vehicles to be magic bullets and win the war for Ukraine in a week. But the reality is that they can't becuase they're not being employed in the way that NATO would employ them to get their best effect (mostly significant air power) and the crews using them have not had the benefit of as much training that NATO forces have (weeks or a few months ago many of these people would have been civilians). None of this is to sell the efforts and sacrifices of Ukraine short but it is a brutal truth.

But, crucially, the one area where, even fighting at a disadvantage, NATO kit excells is in keeping the crews alive after taking battle damage.

There are now plenty of reports of Ukrainian crews driving over mines, getting hit by enemy fire, enemy drones, etc and the crew bailing out, shaken up with cuts and bruises but alive (with the vehicle often recoverable) where if they'd been in an BMP, BTR, or T series tank they'd have been dead or at best most of them would be dead with a couple left with life altering (and war ending) injuries.

Considering Ukrainian manpower is not inexhaustible and, critically, more limited than Russian plus soldiers that survive are likely to come back and be more effective in the future, NATO equipment can make a massive difference just by keeping crews alive even if they can't deliver the decisive blow.

 

[Annetts key]

^ exactly what ainsworth74 said.

 

[brad465]

If true, has there ever been a war when one individual acting in a private capacity has had such a high level of influence on the war's outcome?

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1700057832886870481

So Musk had a chance to shorten the war, and chose not to.

Image is screenshot of an Elon Musk twitter reply saying "There was an emergency request from Government authorities to activate Starlink all the way to Sevastopol. The obvious intent being to sink most of the Russian fleet at anchor. If I had agreed to their request, then SpaceX would be explicitly complicit in a major act of war and conflict escalation."

 

[yorksrob]

I

If true, has there ever been a war when one individual acting in a private capacity has had such a high level of influence on the war's outcome?

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1700057832886870481

I'm surprised the US government are so in awe of their frat-boy businessmen.

I would have expected the question to be "may we borrow your satellites (or else your business career here is finished)".

 

[brad465]

I

I'm surprised the US government are so in awe of their frat-boy businessmen.

I would have expected the question to be "may we borrow your satellites (or else your business career here is finished)".

Trouble is if the US Government took over SpaceX, Musk, the GOP and countless others will be screaming "commie" and may even incite civil unrest as a result.

 

[yorksrob]

Trouble is if the US Government took over SpaceX, Musk, the GOP and countless others will be screaming "commie" and may even incite civil unrest as a result.

I know. It's ironic. You wouldn't have imagined such a thing during the actual cold war. "I'm sorry, I don't feel like cooperating with the sovereign government because it would be unfair on the Soviets".

One can't help but wonder whether the American Republican party is now the weak link in the Western alliance.

 

[simonw]

From the linked text, the Cuban authorities are trying to stop this happening, so it's not officially sanctioned (or possibly it was agreed between the governments but the Cubans have changed their minds). I guess there are a fair number of Soviet/Russian sympathisers in Cuba who might be open to persuasion to participate.

The politics of the present day governments of Cuba and Russia are at very different points on the scale. It's not as it was pre-1991.

 

[yorksrob]

I know. It's ironic. You wouldn't have imagined such a thing during the actual cold war. "I'm sorry, I don't feel like cooperating with the sovereign government because it would be unfair on the Soviets".

One can't help but wonder whether the American Republican party is now the weak link in the Western alliance.

I see from the BBC article that it was the Ukranian Government Musk was disobeying rather than his own.

Nevertheless, it is a salutary reminder of the danger of relying on foreign companies for your essential infrastructure !

 

[edwin_m]

The politics of the present day governments of Cuba and Russia are at very different points on the scale. It's not as it was pre-1991.

Probably not making myself clear. I was suggesting that there were probably Cuban citizens who looked favourably on Russia due to historic ties, similar to how some Russians appear to hark back to the Soviet Union. However, I did see a story suggesting that the Cuban government knew about this and only stopped it when it became more widely known.

 

[yorksrob]

Apologies - Silly ramblings.

 

[Pete_uk]

ATCMS may soon finally be on their way to Ukraine

 

[brad465]

So Kim Jong Un is on his way to meet Putin about providing weapons. Two men with Nodong energy are meeting to discuss providing Nodong missiles.

 

[DustyBin]

Ukraine have successfully hit the dry dock in Sevastopol overnight. How successfully remains to be seen, but there are videos circulating of some large explosions and fires, and the Russians have said that some missiles got through. It’s thought that there was a large landing ship and a Kilo class submarine in the dry dock but this needs confirming (only reported on social media currently). If true, and one or both have been damaged, it’s a good result for Ukraine.

 

[najaB]

If true, and one or both have been damaged, it’s a good result for Ukraine.

Even if they are undamaged (or aren't there) it's still a good result for Ukraine as far as the morale war goes. There will be a lot of Crimea-based Russians starting to look for property to rent in Moscow, Saint Petersburg, etc. Just in case.