Russia invades Ukraine

[1D54]

and Russians would be on the border with Poland right now"

Has Musk never heard of Kaliningrad?

 

[sor]

Musk responded: "Be quiet, small man. You pay a tiny fraction of the cost. And there is no substitute for Starlink" and Marco Rubio added "And say thank you because without Starlink Ukraine would have lost this war long ago and Russians would be on the border with Poland right now"

and of course the backup plan is in the works, with Eutelsat proposing to take more of a leading role (no doubt with prompting by the UK and French governments, who are major shareholders & the UK specifically has special "golden share" rights over the OneWeb subsidiary)

Eutelsat looms large to boot Starlink out of Ukraine

: Increasingly shaky relationship with the States has Europe considering options

www.theregister.com

Joanna Darlington, Chief Communications and Investor Relations Officer for Eutelsat, told The Register that, over Europe, Eutelsat offers the same capabilities as Starlink in terms of coverage and latency, and the company's LEO services were already deployed in Ukraine.
<snip>
Darlington said: "We are actively collaborating with European institutions and business partners to enable the swift deployment of additional user terminals for critical missions and infrastructure."

Eutelsat already has approximately 2,000 terminals in Ukraine. Berneke said reaching 40,000 would take "probably a couple of months, but it's not years."

The Trump government is doing its best to ensure the rest of the world never relies on an American product ever again.

 

[Ivor]

Musk responded: "Be quiet, small man. You pay a tiny fraction of the cost. And there is no substitute for Starlink" and Marco Rubio added "And say thank you because without Starlink Ukraine would have lost this war long ago and Russians would be on the border with Poland right now"

The Arrogance coming out of the Trump camp is staggering, sorry even more staggering, diplomacy is not in their vocabulary.

Pathetic.

And that’s being polite.

 

[Annetts key]

The Trump government is doing its best to ensure the rest of the world never relies on an American product ever again.

This.

Why would a country buy U.S.A. products and services when:

• Products that your country sells to America could at any time be subject to tariffs,
• U.S. supplied military equipment and/or services that you rely on could have restrictions placed on their use at any time, or support, spares and replacement ammunition could be cut off.
• Your country or your government may be subject to threats, insults or ridicule.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Musk responded: "Be quiet, small man. You pay a tiny fraction of the cost. And there is no substitute for Starlink" and Marco Rubio added "And say thank you because without Starlink Ukraine would have lost this war long ago and Russians would be on the border with Poland right now"

This obsession with saying "thank you" is becoming ridiculous. They seem absolutely convinced that we need them and that everything will fall to pieces without them, when in reality, it's their companies that need us. It's also a sign that they're willing to insult and betray even their close allies like Poland, and I think I can speak for most people in Poland when I say that we no longer feel protected by their presence.

The Trump government is doing its best to ensure the rest of the world never relies on an American product ever again.

It is absolutely crystal clear at this point that no European company should ever rely exclusively on American products, and that it's in Europe's best interest to transition away from them ASAP. Russia did it with their move away from Microsoft to Linux, and I would say that we need to develop European alternatives.

Many of the things that we use in IT are really nothing special: there are open source alternatives for pretty much everything.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Ukraine launched what must have been one of their biggest drone attacks on the Moscow region. I heard news of it on the radio that was playing in the barber's shop whilst I was waiting for a haircut in the town where I have moved to, One of the people waiting told me the barber who owns the shop has always had the radio on since he took the business over.

 

[YorkshireBear]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c51ypekv9xwt

Ukraine and US propose to Russia full 30 day ceasefire to allow talks on peace.

Ukraine seems to have moved some of its lines in the sand. I wonder if trumps pressure has caused a rethink. If so I didn't expect it to work, but it may at least stop the killing. Can't see the ceasefire lasting if Ukraine wants it's land back, hence me thinking they've changed their tune. Of course it's not agreed yet. But with Ukrainians nearly expelled from Kursk it could be a way out for Putin.

That was a busy few minutes as we heard that the US-Ukraine talks in Saudi Arabia had ended with Kyiv agreeing to back an immediate ceasefire with Russia.

Here's what you need to know:

• A joint statement has been released saying Ukraine is ready to accept a US proposal to enact an immediate, interim 30-day ceasefire with Russia - and for negotiations to begin to end the war
• US Secretary of State Marco Rubio - who's been key to the talks in Jeddah - told reporters "the ball is in the [Russians'] court', and he will take the offer to Moscow
• He said he hopes the Russians will agree to the ceasefire, but if they don't "we'll unfortunately know what the impediment is to peace here"
• Clarifying some details about the proposed ceasefire, Rubio said "the offer is to stop the shooting" - going beyond Zelensky's proposal for a partial truce in the sea and sky
• "Today people will die in this war, they died yesterday and - sadly - unless there's a ceasefire, they will die tomorrow," Rubio said, adding repeatedly that US President Donald Trump wants to put an end to the war in Ukraine

We'll have some analysis from our correspondents coming to you shortly. Stick with us.

Trump also Open to inviting Zelensky back to the white house.

The US is seemingly in Ukraine’s corner - for nowpublished at 19:42 11 March​

It might be an American tune, but Ukraine is finally singing from the same hymn sheet as the US.
This joint statement means their relationship is seemingly patched up. Donald Trump has even suggested he’d invite Volodymyr Zelensky back to the White House, in from the political cold.

We could likely see Ukraine’s leader sign a minerals deal which would open up the pathway for American investment. But there still aren't his much-wanted security guarantees in place.

However, Rubio tellingly talked about the security of Ukrainian people being central to this proposed ceasefire, which would be across the entire front line.

Perhaps now that Ukraine is “grateful” and “willing for peace”, America is prepared to secure its long-term future.

This proposal is littered with caveats and there is a huge “but”.

And that is: what will Russia make of it? Will it accept Washington’s idea and implement the ceasefire "immediately”?

If Vladimir Putin doesn't want to play with the “ball” America says is now in his court, this diplomatic breakthrough quickly collapses.

But the reason it’s still significant, is because the US is seemingly in Ukraine’s corner, for now.

What interesting times we live in.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Ukraine and US propose to Russia full 30 day ceasefire to allow talks on peace.

Russia won't agree, for one simple reason: they know fine well that Ukraine can only benefit from a ceasefire. Russia has serious structural problems that they can't resolve in 30 years, whereas Ukraine will throw absolutely everything at producing as many weapons as they can in those 30 days.

Ukraine launched what must have been one of their biggest drone attacks on the Moscow region.

Interestingly, it seems that it might actually have been a failure. They don't seem to have hit any significant targets despite sending a huge amount of drones in, although it's possible that this was intended as a show of strength and to ascertain where any holes in Russian anti-air defences might be.

 

[edwin_m]

Ukraine will throw absolutely everything at producing as many weapons as they can in those 30 days.

Hopefully also build some defences close-ish behind the front line.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

It seems strange that the person who wants to take Greenland and make Canada a state of the USA is dealing with the person who wants to bring back Ukraine into the full Russia orbit. The adage of the goose and the gander tends to spring to mind.

 

[edwin_m]

It seems strange that the person who wants to take Greenland and make Canada a state of the USA is dealing with the person who wants to bring back Ukraine into the full Russia orbit. The adage of the goose and the gander tends to spring to mind.

They have in common the desire to swallow up less powerful neighbours.

 

[Cloud Strife]

It seems strange that the person who wants to take Greenland and make Canada a state of the USA is dealing with the person who wants to bring back Ukraine into the full Russia orbit. The adage of the goose and the gander tends to spring to mind.

Trump is a child of the Cold War and sees it that way. The idea of the world being divided into spheres of influence makes perfect sense to him and to many Americans.

 

[Pete_uk]

The Long Neptune cruise missile that can allegedly fly 1000km has been tested against a target in Russia. I think it was one of the aviation fuel depots that had a 'incident' recently.

I hope they have lots of these stacked up and ready to fire to make the Russian army's job much more difficult.

 

[AlterEgo]

Russia and the USA are currently appointing teams to carve up Ukraine at the end of this grubby war.

U.S., Russia agree to "begin working on a path" to end Ukraine war, in meeting in Saudi Arabia with no Ukrainians

Senior officials from the U.S. and Russia meet in Saudi Arabia on improving ties and ending the war in Ukraine - but Ukraine isn't invited.

www.cbsnews.com

The Ukrainians are of course not present.

I regret that I was correct a couple of years ago and Great Power politics is back - and Europe is not one of them. A total passenger.

The USA and Russia continue to work on "dividing up certain assets":

Trump says he and Putin will discuss land and powerplants in Ukraine ceasefire talks

Trump says negotiators have already discussed ‘dividing up certain assets’ and that he will talk to Putin on Tuesday

www.theguardian.com

US President Donald Trump said he plans to discuss ending the war in Ukraine with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday and that negotiators had already discussed “dividing up certain assets”.

“I’ll be speaking to President Putin on Tuesday. A lot of work’s been done over the weekend,” Trump told reporters on Air Force One during a late flight back to the Washington area from Florida.

“We want to see if we can bring that war to an end. Maybe we can, maybe we can’t, but I think we have a very good chance,” Trump said.

Trump is on a promise to end the war, and looks weaker if he doesn't, while Putin's domestic troubles are not so critical, so it will be interesting to see how this plays out.

 

[Ivor]

The Long Neptune cruise missile that can allegedly fly 1000km has been tested against a target in Russia. I think it was one of the aviation fuel depots that had a 'incident' recently.

I hope they have lots of these stacked up and ready to fire to make the Russian army's job much more difficult.

I was reading this missile was produced in Ukraine or indicates such which I wasn’t aware of.

 

[DustyBin]

I was reading this missile was produced in Ukraine or indicates such which I wasn’t aware of.

Yes, it’s a domestic product. The original anti-ship version is what they sunk the Moskva with IIRC.

 

[brad465]

While we wait for Trump to give Putin everything he wants in their ongoing phone call, some positive news today is the German parliament has voted for the ability to significantly increase defence spending, which will be a huge boost for European defence and attempt to deter further Russian aggression:

Germany votes for historic boost to defence and infrastructure spending

The move alters the German constitution, allowing the country to increase its military spending.

www.bbc.co.uk

German lawmakers have voted to allow a huge increase in defence and infrastructure spending - a seismic shift for the country that could reshape European defence.

A two-thirds majority of Bundestag parliamentarians, required for the change, approved the vote on Tuesday.

The law will exempt spending on defence and security from Germany's strict debt rules, and create a €500bn ($547bn; £420bn) infrastructure fund.

This vote is a historic move for traditionally debt-shy Germany, and could be hugely significant for Europe, as Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine grinds on, and after US President Donald Trump signalled an uncertain commitment to Nato and Europe's defence.

 

[ThatOneWelsh]

While we wait for Trump to give Putin everything he wants in their ongoing phone call, some positive news today is the German parliament has voted for the ability to significantly increase defence spending, which will be a huge boost for European defence and attempt to deter further Russian aggression:

Germany votes for historic boost to defence and infrastructure spending

The move alters the German constitution, allowing the country to increase its military spending.

www.bbc.co.uk

Have to hope it passes the Bundesrat (it might but it is close I think) before the new Bundestag convenes on the 25th. They won't have the votes then.

 

[Strathclyder]

Musk responded: "Be quiet, small man. You pay a tiny fraction of the cost. And there is no substitute for Starlink" and Marco Rubio added "And say thank you because without Starlink Ukraine would have lost this war long ago and Russians would be on the border with Poland right now"

Arrogant. Pathetic. Enraging. So totally in keeping with the Trump admin. You can take this obsession with saying 'thank you' and stick it in your ear Rubio, you weasel. Didn't have the nerve to do anything more than squrim in your seat in the Oval Office shouting match you were present for, but you grow a spine behind your screen? Hardly a surprise given who you work for. I'm being excessively polite when I say this: Do one.

And 'no alternative' Musk? That'll be news to Eutelsat I wager. Arrogant bobble-headed idiot.

 

[sor]

And 'no alternative' Musk? That'll be news to Eutelsat I wager. Arrogant bobble-headed idiot.

and specifically the OneWeb element of it, which is the company the UK government saved from liquidation a few years ago when Dominic Cummings had the bright idea to use it as the basis for a "britnav" (since we'd lost Galileo access post brexit). We still hold a significant shareholding in Eutelsat and a "golden share" in OneWeb itself. I feel sick at the thought of having to credit the tory govt with having done so!

 

[najaB]

I feel sick at the thought of having to credit the tory govt with having done so!

A Tory government can do good, even if accidentally!

 

[Trackman]

US / Ukraine announce maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea.
About an hour later, Russia says - yes, but.... (see below)
I was waiting until sanctions were mentioned by the Russians. Why was this not discussed earlier today in Saudi? Is Trump going to lift some sanctions?

Ukraine war latest: Russia and Ukraine agree to ceasefire in Black Sea, White House says

But in its statement, Russia says certain sanctions must be lifted before the ceasefire comes into effect.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[edwin_m]

US / Ukraine announce maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea.
About an hour later, Russia says - yes, but.... (see below)
I was waiting until sanctions were mentioned by the Russians. Why was this not discussed earlier today in Saudi? Is Trump going to lift some sanctions?

Ukraine war latest: Russia and Ukraine agree to ceasefire in Black Sea, White House says

But in its statement, Russia says certain sanctions must be lifted before the ceasefire comes into effect.

www.bbc.co.uk

From what I read later on this live thread, I think it was discussed and it is worded in terms of enabling food and fertiliser exports but it does include lifting restrictions on financial transactions. We await to see what else the Russians manage to do with that.

There is a risk however that if Europe tries to block this they will be seen as getting in the way of a ceasefire or of feeding poorer nations.

 

[Ivor]

US / Ukraine announce maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea.
About an hour later, Russia says - yes, but.... (see below)
I was waiting until sanctions were mentioned by the Russians. Why was this not discussed earlier today in Saudi? Is Trump going to lift some sanctions?

Ukraine war latest: Russia and Ukraine agree to ceasefire in Black Sea, White House says

But in its statement, Russia says certain sanctions must be lifted before the ceasefire comes into effect.

www.bbc.co.uk

My answer to your question is that Trump will do what ever his pal ‘Vlad’ wants, after all Trump wants to to stamp his name in the history books that he stopped this war within 24 hours of coming back into office….
oh wait…

 

[najaB]

Trump wants to to stamp his name in the history books that he stopped this war within 24 hours of coming back into office…

It wasn't even 24 hours of taking office, it was with within 24 hours of becoming President elect.

 

[1D54]

It wasn't even 24 hours of taking office, it was with within 24 hours of becoming President elect.

Which of course he didn't have the power to do.

 

[Mogster]

Arrogant. Pathetic. Enraging. So totally in keeping with the Trump admin. You can take this obsession with saying 'thank you' and stick it in your ear Rubio, you weasel. Didn't have the nerve to do anything more than squrim in your seat in the Oval Office shouting match you were present for, but you grow a spine behind your screen? Hardly a surprise given who you work for. I'm being excessively polite when I say this: Do one.

And 'no alternative' Musk? That'll be news to Eutelsat I wager. Arrogant bobble-headed idiot.

and specifically the OneWeb element of it, which is the company the UK government saved from liquidation a few years ago when Dominic Cummings had the bright idea to use it as the basis for a "britnav" (since we'd lost Galileo access post brexit). We still hold a significant shareholding in Eutelsat and a "golden share" in OneWeb itself. I feel sick at the thought of having to credit the tory govt with having done so!

There are plenty of comparisons online, it seems Musk is correct, currently. There are significant challenges to replacing Starlink with Eutelsat, particularly for frontline use. Overcoming these difficulties will take significant investment from European countries.

The Feasibility of Transitioning from Starlink to Eutelsat in Ukraine

keeptrack.space

Transitioning from Starlink to Eutelsat in Ukraine presents a high-risk, high-reward scenario. While OneWeb’s current technical limitations—particularly its 5.5 Gbps capacity ceiling—make it unsuitable for direct replacement, the hybrid GEO-LEO architecture offers a viable path toward diversified connectivity. Strategic success hinges on three factors:

1. EU Funding Commitment: Covering the $400 million terminal cost and subsidizing subscription fees.
2. Manufacturing Acceleration: Securing component supplies amid global semiconductor shortages.
3. Interoperability Standards: Developing secure cross-constellation protocols to prevent Russian exploitation.

Ukraine’s ability to maintain battlefield initiative may well depend on whether Eutelsat can transform from a theoretical alternative into a combat-ready solution within the next 12 months. The coming weeks will prove decisive, as EU leaders finalize funding packages and Eutelsat ramps up terminal production.

In the fog of war, reliable communications can mean the difference between victory and defeat. For Ukraine, the stakes couldn’t be higher

 

[sor]

There are plenty of comparisons online, it seems Musk is correct, currently. There are significant challenges to replacing Starlink with Eutelsat, particularly for frontline use. Overcoming these difficulties will take significant investment from European countries.

The linked article gives off significant “written by LLM” vibes. Especially with references to the chip shortage, as isn’t that mostly over by now? At least until China makes a go for Taiwan. It’s all the same talking points that have rapidly materialised once people started talking about OneWeb as a serious alternative.

Headline capacity figures aren’t all that relevant here. Cost isn’t really a factor either. In the grand scheme of military spending even $10k per terminal is nothing, and I don’t take any article that compares to Starlink’s consumer grade terminal & service cost particularly seriously.

People seem to be confusing “good enough” with “seamless replacement”. The real question is whether OneWeb can provide what Ukraine actually *needs*, with the priority being to decouple from anything Musk or the US can turn off. Eutelsat and European governments seem to think it can, and they’re better informed than any of us

 

[Annetts key]

Especially with references to the chip shortage, as isn’t that mostly over by now?

The generic chip shortage is indeed over.

There may well be shortages of some types, but that's normal in that industry. As manufacturers discontinue older types or have not recently produced a new run of current types. Sometimes alternatives are available.

As long as the fabrication technicology is still available for the chip die needed, a manufacturers can arrange for another production run as long as there is enough demand.

And if they do plan to discontinue a type, the manufacturer normally issues a notice so that customers can order one last batch.

 

[Mogster]

The linked article gives off significant “written by LLM” vibes. Especially with references to the chip shortage, as isn’t that mostly over by now? At least until China makes a go for Taiwan. It’s all the same talking points that have rapidly materialised once people started talking about OneWeb as a serious alternative.

Headline capacity figures aren’t all that relevant here. Cost isn’t really a factor either. In the grand scheme of military spending even $10k per terminal is nothing, and I don’t take any article that compares to Starlink’s consumer grade terminal & service cost particularly seriously.

People seem to be confusing “good enough” with “seamless replacement”. The real question is whether OneWeb can provide what Ukraine actually *needs*, with the priority being to decouple from anything Musk or the US can turn off. Eutelsat and European governments seem to think it can, and they’re better informed than any of us

Regarding production issues it seems Eutelsat orders are so far small so there’s been no incentive to scale up production.

A major advantage of Starlink is the dish that uses Starlink’s internally developed phased array system. You don’t have to align the dish you just throw it on the ground and it just works. The dish aligns itself electronically and Starlink has so many satellites to connect to. The dish is small, 2kg, cheap €500 and several can be carried by soldiers. Eutelsat does have flat panels (Eutelsat flat panel) but they are heavy, 12kg, need a PC base station and appear more suitable for mounting to a truck. These systems cost €10,000 so I assume this is where the quoted cost comes from. This system doesn’t look suitable for a frontline soldier.

Providing alternatives to US kit is attractive. However I think it’s important to be realistic about what can be achieved in the short-medium term and at what cost.