Should restrictions be eased fully if Indian Variant case rates do not decline before June 21st?

If case rates do not decline before June 21st, what do you think should happen with the roadmap?

  • Go ahead with easing of all Covid restrictions on June 21st, assuming vaccinations are ramped up

    Votes: 174 52.9%
  • Go ahead with stage 4 of easing restrictions on June 21st, but keep masks and WFH guidance

    Votes: 29 8.8%
  • Ease some stage 4 restrictions on June 21st, but keep others for longer

    Votes: 36 10.9%
  • Postpone stage 4 easing to a later date in the worst affected hotspots

    Votes: 17 5.2%
  • Postpone stage 4 easing to a later date everywhere

    Votes: 47 14.3%
  • Impose new localised restrictions in the worst affected hotspots

    Votes: 7 2.1%
  • Impose new national restrictions

    Votes: 11 3.3%
  • Other (please specify)

    Votes: 8 2.4%

  • Total voters
    329
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NorthKent1989

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I would like to know from those who favour further restrictions where the line gets drawn here?

Zero Covid is impossible, and Covid will become seasonal, so we lockdown every autumn and winter for the next few years
 
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Failed Unit

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I do not rate my personal risk very high but I am getting my second dose as soon as I can as it will inevitably be necessary for the overseas travel that I sorely miss.
I am with you on that one - but the rock in the hard place continues. At the moment we have:

France and Germany won't let anyone from the UK in because of the "Delta variant"
The US doesn't seem in any hurry to let anyone in.
The restrictions on getting back into the UK are worse then they were last year.
The government can't win, people want to travel but then don't want to see countries on the red list (£1 for everyone that said you put India on the red list too late)
I have seen a lot of evidence to suggest the Autumn growth were sequenced to people bringing it back from abroad (although this could be simply to justify keeping boarders difficult)

I like you would love to travel again, however give the choice I would rather not travel again this year if it means I can do things in the UK without restrictions (in particular masks). But neither is looking likely now :(
 

Nicholas Lewis

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I am with you on that one - but the rock in the hard place continues. At the moment we have:

France and Germany won't let anyone from the UK in because of the "Delta variant"
The US doesn't seem in any hurry to let anyone in.
The restrictions on getting back into the UK are worse then they were last year.
The government can't win, people want to travel but then don't want to see countries on the red list (£1 for everyone that said you put India on the red list too late)
I have seen a lot of evidence to suggest the Autumn growth were sequenced to people bringing it back from abroad (although this could be simply to justify keeping boarders difficult)

I like you would love to travel again, however give the choice I would rather not travel again this year if it means I can do things in the UK without restrictions (in particular masks). But neither is looking likely now :(
My pounds in the post but had they clamped down on travel from India earlier they would have avoided seeding so many outbreaks I accept they wouldn't have stopped it but numbers would have been lower. This was an effective measure against the Brazilian an Sth African variants earlier in the year and as a result neither of the variants has gained traction. Keeping new variants at bay was mission critical to reopening and they should have acted as soon as it was suspicious and if proven not be an issue stepped it back up to Amber. This is on them but they won't admit just bull**** there way through it tonight aided and abetted by our hapless media.
 

yorkie

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My pounds in the post but had they clamped down on travel from India earlier they would have avoided seeding so many outbreaks I accept they wouldn't have stopped it but numbers would have been lower. This was an effective measure against the Brazilian an Sth African variants earlier in the year and as a result neither of the variants has gained traction. Keeping new variants at bay was mission critical to reopening and they should have acted as soon as it was suspicious and if proven not be an issue stepped it back up to Amber. This is on them but they won't admit just bull**** there way through it tonight aided and abetted by our hapless media.
It would have made only a few weeks difference as this is set to be te dominant variant worldwide (until another more fit variant emerges)

Ultimately the virus is adapting to suit human cells; we cannot change this evolutionary process, nor should we feat it, as we head towards endemic equilibrium for what will be the fifth human Coronavirus.
 

kristiang85

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Looking at the actual data, in Zoe the day to day increase is only up 2%, with the rate slowing.

The NHS triage data is a bit lower than last week, and the daily figure down.

Maybe a sign it's already peaked.
 

chris11256

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Looking at the actual data, in Zoe the day to day increase is only up 2%, with the rate slowing.

The NHS triage data is a bit lower than last week, and the daily figure down.

Maybe a sign it's already peaked.
I'm hoping so, fingers cross this trend carries on for a few days so that we can be certain.

That would mirror every time the Government has restricted things, each time cases have peaked within days/a week or so.
 

Cdd89

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I like you would love to travel again, however give the choice I would rather not travel again this year if it means I can do things in the UK without restrictions (in particular masks). But neither is looking likely now :(
This is a false choice, every last restriction doesn’t have to be gone in the U.K. for travel to open up. See: last summer.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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It would have made only a few weeks difference as this is set to be te dominant variant worldwide (until another more fit variant comes across)

Ultimately the virus is adapting to suit human cells; we cannot change this evolutionary process, nor should we feat it, as we head towards endemic equilibrium for what will be the fifth human Coronavirus.
Not sure i can agree with that by reducing the number of outbreaks you reduce the number of times a transmission event can occur whilst at the same time more of the population is being vaccinated. Also why is the UK the only country that is suffering from this variant and if other countries were that wary they wouldn't be open up to travel.
 

philosopher

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It would have made only a few weeks difference as this is set to be te dominant variant worldwide (until another more fit variant comes across)

Ultimately the virus is adapting to suit human cells; we cannot change this evolutionary process, nor should we feat it, as we head towards endemic equilibrium for what will be the fifth human Coronavirus.
Agree that putting India on the red list earlier would have only delayed things by a few weeks and that Delta variant is unlikely to pose much of threat given most people now have enough immunity to prevent them getting severely ill from Covid.

However the problem is that SAGE and the government still do consider Covid to be a serious threat, hence the delay to step 4. The government started to become concerned about the Delta variant in mid May. If putting India on the red list earlier had put its spread back a few weeks, then step 4 may have already occurred before the government had started to become concerned by the spread of the Delta variant and I don't think the government would have risked reversing restrictions after that point.
 

jumble

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Recent statements that the delta virus is now said to be 60% more infectious than other variants and that of the reported deaths said to have been from vaccinated people in the previous period where these people have had both of their vaccinations is now said to be 12 are yet another snippets of medical information that my next-door neighbour (who is a medical consultant) has passed on to me. He is based in one of the teaching hospitals in the North-West.

Do I have to take what he says "with a pinch of salt"?
Yes because the figure of 12 is completely meaningless unless he has told you that they died of Covid and can assure you that there was no co morbidity
I wonder if you are one of those naive people who believe that if Covid had not come along all 130K people who had been recorded as dying would happily be alive
In any event a sample of 43 is no where near big enough to extrapolate
 
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greyman42

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Well we can start by not wearing masks after next Monday. Even if we're still compelled to do table service in bars and keep 1m apart from those not in our social bubbles.
Agreed. My mask was discarded weeks ago.
 

initiation

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Also why is the UK the only country that is suffering from this variant and if other countries were that wary they wouldn't be open up to travel.
Page 6 of the is WHO report shows how far it has reached. Most countries including supposedly zero-covid New Zealand!

This is the problem with doing a huge proportion of sequencing - it's like we've just invented a microscope and are realising there are all these 'nasties' out there we couldn't see before.
 

nlogax

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Also why is the UK the only country that is suffering from this variant and if other countries were that wary they wouldn't be open up to travel.

Spain appears to be in an even less preferable position than the UK when it comes to this variant. A much higher cumulative rate per million and a marginally higher fortnightly rate per million. Even then - relatively tiny numbers.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...preading-rapidly-and-detected-in-74-countries
The Delta variant of Covid-19, first identified in India, has been detected in 74 countries and continues to spread rapidly amid fears that it is poised to become the dominant strain worldwide.

With outbreaks of the main Delta strain and several of its sub-lineages confirmed in China, the US, Africa, Scandinavia and the Pacific, concern increasingly is focusing on how it appears to be more transmissible as well as causing more serious illness.


In the US, according to the former Food and Drug Administration commissioner Scott Gottlieb, cases of the Delta variant are doubling roughly every two weeks and account for 10% of all new cases, while in the UK it accounts for more than 90% of new cases.

Screenshot 2021-06-14 at 15.39.18.png
 

Failed Unit

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Just looking at the governments interactive map


Most of the UK is green, some of the areas are turning blue (around Bolton and North Tyneside etc) But nothing to get excited about. Scotland seems to be increasing in numbers (but St Nicola is a little quiet at the moment)

Nothing that would justify the delay.
 

Yew

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Would some on this website prefer it if Johnson had been of the same opinion of the dangers inherent with Covid-19 as the head honcho of Brazil?
I’d have preferred if we’d stuck to an evidence based policy, as outlined in our pandemic planning.
 

Darandio

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Doing a comparison in a quiet moment, it appears that the cumulative death figure that seems to regularly appear in the media is now larger than the total population of Watford.

You should get on to party HQ because they could use that tonight, it's the kind of meaningless dross they like to use. Meanwhile the cumulative figure of deaths from cancer in every year is larger than the total population of Oxford.
 

Xenophon PCDGS

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Just looking at the governments interactive map


Most of the UK is green, some of the areas are turning blue (around Bolton and North Tyneside etc)
I wonder if anyone can explain the reasons why North-West England seems much worse statistically than other areas in the map.

You should get on to party HQ because they could use that tonight, it's the kind of meaningless dross they like to use. Meanwhile the cumulative figure of deaths from cancer in every year is larger than the total population of Oxford.
I bow to your superior medical knowledge, as I was unaware that cancer was an infectious disease.
 

TheBeard

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Our underfunded, understaffed broken down hospitals can't cope with an extra, and pointless 50000 deaths, and say 200000 unpleasant hospitalisations rather than waiting a month to do their vaccines. Otherwise, Lockdown 5. We still will have to go through a similar horrible wave after vaccines are complete. We all knew vaccination would take longer than June 21.
Also, fix the NHS!
 

dave87016

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For me the delay that is expected to be announced later is a result of the goverments incompetence and bumbling boris’s Failure to close the borders when the Indian variant first came to light and as a result businesses , jobs and the well being of people is at risk and almost single handedly their failure to close the border has undone the good work the vaccination programme has done

The date of the next review in July has to be a yes to ending restrictions as if they don’t I can’t see us getting rid of them till spring 2022 at the earliest as autumn and winter will soon be looming large on the horizon

It’s almost as if the goverment are deluding themselves and want it to be Covid free before they end the remaining restrictions

I think by mid July should be the end of restrictions and social distancing and back to normal as everyone knows the dangers and the risks and should be allowed to make their own judgements on their freedoms
 
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initiation

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Would some on this website prefer it if Johnson had been of the same opinion of the dangers inherent with Covid-19 as the head honcho of Brazil?

Strawman argument. Of course that is the only alternative :rolleyes:

I note that Peru, a neighbour to Brazil, followed the science. Peru had one of the earliest/longest lockdowns, permission slips needed to leave home, masks from March 2020. The current result? The highest death toll per capita in the world (double that of neighbouring Brazil)


Globally there is no consistent correlation between the severity of measures imposed and death tolls.
 

Yew

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Our underfunded, understaffed broken down hospitals can't cope with an extra, and pointless 50000 deaths, and say 200000 unpleasant hospitalisations rather than waiting a month to do their vaccines. Otherwise, Lockdown 5. We still will have to go through a similar horrible wave after vaccines are complete. We all knew vaccination would take longer than June 21.
Also, fix the NHS!
If you’re providing numbers, you’d better provide a source for those. Otherwise we have to assume you’re just making up scary situations to appeal to base fear; which is not conducive to rational and logical debate.
 

Darandio

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Our underfunded, understaffed broken down hospitals can't cope with an extra, and pointless 50000 deaths, and say 200000 unpleasant hospitalisations rather than waiting a month to do their vaccines. Otherwise, Lockdown 5. We still will have to go through a similar horrible wave after vaccines are complete. We all knew vaccination would take longer than June 21.
Also, fix the NHS!

Okay, which incorrect 'worst case' model did you pluck them from?

I bow to your superior medical knowledge, as I was unaware that cancer was an infectious disease.

You knew exactly the point I was making Paul.
 

brad465

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Would some on this website prefer it if Johnson had been of the same opinion of the dangers inherent with Covid-19 as the head honcho of Brazil?
Bolsonaro is a dangerous leader and I long to see the back of him, but when it comes to covid in Brazil I'd say poverty is playing a large part (which Bolsonaro hasn't done anything about either). I remember a study in India revealing a particular slum in Mumbai had over 50% of its population with antibodies near the end of 2020, before vaccines were approved, revealing how easily it spreads in such environments. Inequality is extremely deep in Brazil and many cities like Sao Paulo also have slums, which will be covid havens, and then of course their population spread the virus into the wider community through menial jobs they do to try and get by. This would certainly explain why they along with India have well reported variants associated with them.
 

35B

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Strawman argument. Of course that is the only alternative :rolleyes:

I note that Peru, a neighbour to Brazil, followed the science. Peru had one of the earliest/longest lockdowns, permission slips needed to leave home, masks from March 2020. The current result? The highest death toll per capita in the world (double that of neighbouring Brazil)


Globally there is no consistent correlation between the severity of measures imposed and death tolls.
A statistic that follows close re-review of Peruvian statistics which were previously much less damning. It is an important cautionary tale about relying on national statistics from countries with weak health systems, and gives reason to wonder how a similar exercise would alter the league table if carried out elsewhere.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-53150808 discusses the impact of Covid in Peru; the article includes interesting discussion on the limits of any set of social distancing policies in a poor country:
There are also several social and economic factors that can help explain why Peru has struggled to contain Covid cases.
About 70% of the employed population in Peru work in the informal sector, which is one of the highest rates in Latin America.
These jobs are by their nature unpredictable, and mean many workers have to chose between going out to work or not having enough money to survive.
The government has passed significant support measures to help people who lost their jobs and companies that lost income due to the pandemic - but only about 38% of Peruvian adults have a bank account, making quick digital payments largely impossible.
"Peruvians who went out to work had to use public transport, and to sell goods in very crowded markets," Peruvian economist Hugo Ñopo told the BBC.
More than 40% of households in Peru do not have a refrigerator, according to a 2020 government survey.
Many households "do not have logistics that allow them to stock up on food for many days", Ñopo says.
"They have to go out to stock up frequently and especially go to the markets," he adds.
Early in the pandemic, the markets which many Peruvians rely have been identified as "the main sources of contagion" by government.
On top of this, the latest National Household Survey suggests 11.8% of poor households in Peru live in overcrowded homes.
Cramped housing makes social distancing harder and allows the virus to spread more easily.

Bolsonaro is a dangerous leader and I long to see the back of him, but when it comes to covid in Brazil I'd say poverty is playing a large part (which Bolsonaro hasn't done anything about either). I remember a study in India revealing a particular slum in Mumbai had over 50% of its population with antibodies near the end of 2020, before vaccines were approved, revealing how easily it spreads in such environments. Inequality is extremely deep in Brazil and many cities like Sao Paulo also have slums, which will be covid havens, and then of course their population spread the virus into the wider community through menial jobs they do to try and get by. This would certainly explain why they along with India have well reported variants associated with them.
The difference between India and Brazil is that Indian leaders have at times tried to do something about Covid (arguably this spring's outbreak was because they got complacent), whereas Bolsonaro has actively tried to prevent anything being done.
 
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