Should restrictions be eased fully if Indian Variant case rates do not decline before June 21st?

If case rates do not decline before June 21st, what do you think should happen with the roadmap?

  • Go ahead with easing of all Covid restrictions on June 21st, assuming vaccinations are ramped up

    Votes: 174 52.9%
  • Go ahead with stage 4 of easing restrictions on June 21st, but keep masks and WFH guidance

    Votes: 29 8.8%
  • Ease some stage 4 restrictions on June 21st, but keep others for longer

    Votes: 36 10.9%
  • Postpone stage 4 easing to a later date in the worst affected hotspots

    Votes: 17 5.2%
  • Postpone stage 4 easing to a later date everywhere

    Votes: 47 14.3%
  • Impose new localised restrictions in the worst affected hotspots

    Votes: 7 2.1%
  • Impose new national restrictions

    Votes: 11 3.3%
  • Other (please specify)

    Votes: 8 2.4%

  • Total voters
    329
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Dent

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I would say offered rather than received. Otherwise you are at best sailing close to the wind, or even in breach of the current enabling act(s) - which (for England) is different to the Coronavirus Act 2020.
The post you quotes does say offered.
 
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Jonny

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The post you quotes does say offered.

Slight oops - but I will say that it should stick with doses offered, if not necessarily accepted. After all, the wording was taken from that enabling act (Public Health Act 1984 as amended) and placed into the Coronavirus Act 2020 for Scotland, which could be seen as an overall endorsement of the choice of words by the current UK Parliament.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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Slight oops - but I will say that it should stick with doses offered, if not necessarily accepted. After all, the wording was taken from that enabling act (Public Health Act 1984 as amended) and placed into the Coronavirus Act 2020 for Scotland, which could be seen as an overall endorsement of the choice of words by the current UK Parliament.
What does offered mean though - the day they say its now available to be booked or when they would have realistically vaccinated that age group?
 

Jamesrob637

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Just one reported death today. In Wales. From April 2020! So it's 0 if you do within 28 days. Okay I know it's a Sunday stat, but it's good going.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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Just one reported death today. In Wales. From April 2020! So it's 0 if you do within 28 days. Okay I know it's a Sunday stat, but it's good going.
English hospitalisation figures up from 805 to 860 over weekend with mechanically ventilated only up two to 133 so not so positive but well within SPI-M predictions after step 3. Lets hope figures drift back down over the week to show limited impact from higher case level so some elements of Step 4 can be taken.
 

nlogax

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with mechanically ventilated only up two to 133 so not so positive but well within SPI-M predictions after step 3

This is the metric everyone should be looking to. +2 on ventilation considering the fairly sizeable case increase is a very good result and yet more evidence of the increasing disconnect between cases and serious hospitalizations / deaths.
 

duncanp

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English hospitalisation figures up from 805 to 860 over weekend with mechanically ventilated only up two to 133 so not so positive but well within SPI-M predictions after step 3. Lets hope figures drift back down over the week to show limited impact from higher case level so some elements of Step 4 can be taken.

When you consider that English hospitalisations peaked at 34,015 on 19th January, you can see that this is chickenfeed.

Even if the numbers in hospital were to treble, the NHS would come nowhere near to being overwhelmed.

That hasn't stopped some NHS doctors saying that, not only should 21st June not go ahead, but that some of the easings of May 17th should be reversed.

I think you can park this proposal in the "...more likely to see Elvis Presley on the moon driving a double decker bus with Lord Lucan as the conductor..." category.
 

Jamesrob637

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English hospitalisation figures up from 805 to 860 over weekend with mechanically ventilated only up two to 133 so not so positive but well within SPI-M predictions after step 3. Lets hope figures drift back down over the week to show limited impact from higher case level so some elements of Step 4 can be taken.

I ignore hospitalizations on Sundays and Mondays but yes let's see how this week goes.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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This is the metric everyone should be looking to. +2 on ventilation considering the fairly sizeable case increase is a very good result and yet more evidence of the increasing disconnect between cases and serious hospitalizations / deaths.
Totally agree and an uptick was expected after Step 3 which didn't factor in the Delta variant so to have that as well and have data this positive is fantastic outcome. So they should be celebrating what a great job they've done with the vaccine roll out and openly bragging about how they got behind vaccine researchers and provided this salvation for the British Public and as a result some elements of Step 4 will go ahead.
 

Jamesrob637

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When you consider that English hospitalisations peaked at 34,015 on 19th January, you can see that this is chickenfeed.

Even if the numbers in hospital were to treble, the NHS would come nowhere near to being overwhelmed.

That hasn't stopped some NHS doctors saying that, not only should 21st June not go ahead, but that some of the easings of May 17th should be reversed.

I think you can park this proposal in the "...more likely to see Elvis Presley on the moon driving a double decker bus with Lord Lucan as the conductor..." category.

The NHS has not been under more severe pressure than usual since March. It was under pressure for most of the first lockdown, briefly at the end of 2020 and again from January to March 2021. But not now.

Those who advocate a reversal of three weeks ago probably should consider another career or furlough.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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I ignore hospitalizations on Sundays and Mondays but yes let's see how this week goes.
Generally Monday does show a slight uptick even when we were on a significant downtrend so i concur but this week has seen a broader rise especially in NE. However last issue of CO-CIN report shows majority of patients admitted are being cared for on wards with Oxygen therapy and that 75% of those admitted are released within 4 days. The point being is NHS can respond to the current levels with impacting overall response - they have c120k beds available in England although with SD in hospitals I believe its down around 100k currently.
 

Bald Rick

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English hospitalisation figures up from 805 to 860 over weekend with mechanically ventilated only up two to 133 so not so positive but well within SPI-M predictions after step 3. Lets hope figures drift back down over the week to show limited impact from higher case level so some elements of Step 4 can be taken.

I can’t see numbers going down in the next few weeks. Hospital occupancy is up 60% in the North West region in the last 3 weeks, with half that increase in the past 7 days. The rest of the country is broadly level, with perhaps a small (<10%) increase in a couple of areas.

The increase in infections across the north west continues, and is spreading outward from the Blackburn ‘epicentre’. It is fair to say the increase in hospital occupancy is somewhat lower than the increase in infections, which is good news. However I would expect there to be some detailed (and rapid) analysis going on of who has got infected, and who has landed in hospital with respect to their vaccination status and level of vulnerability. In my view a ‘wait for more data’ announcement on June 14th is more likely than not.
 

Peter Mugridge

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I would expect there to be some detailed (and rapid) analysis going on of who has got infected, and who has landed in hospital with respect to their vaccination status and level of vulnerability. In my view a ‘wait for more data’ announcement on June 14th is more likely than not.

Something like this?


Very important news from Matt Hancock in the Commons, confirming Covid jabs are working. Out of 12,383 Delta variant cases in UK till June 3rd: - 464 people went to emergency care - 126 admitted to hospital - 83 were unvaccinated - 28 had one jab - Just 3 both doses

1623108899672.png
 

yorksrob

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On the positive side, those seem like very good numbers to me, even on one jab.

On the negative side, I think that arguments about what countries should be on the green/amber list are going to be academic for some time, as foreign Governments aren't going to open their borders to us for fear of importing the delta varient.
 

initiation

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This interview on talkradio is with somebody who thinks restrictions shouldn't be eased and infact should last forever.

It is terrifying that somebody like this - educated at Cambridge, a trained Doctor, a former MP - can hold such selfish views. I fear there are many others like him.

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It seems inevitable that there will be a delay to 21st June. Always just out of reach...
 

nlogax

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This interview on talkradio is with somebody who thinks restrictions shouldn't be eased and infact should last forever.

It is terrifying that somebody like this - educated at Cambridge, a trained Doctor, a former MP - can hold such selfish views. I fear there are many others like him.

Luckily people with views such as these in positions of actual power and responsibility are few and far between.
 

kristiang85

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Luckily people with views such as these in positions of actual power and responsibility are few and far between.

I honestly think Gove is close to this opinion; or, at least, he hasn't done or said anything to dissuade me that he isn't.
 

Bald Rick

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Yes like that! Encouraging numbers, albeit I’m not sure how it accounts for the lag between testing positive and needing hospital attention. However, if you scale them up (a bit dodgy, but all we can do) it equates to 1% of those testing positive being hospitalised, which is an order of magnitude better than it was a year ago.

Albeit I’d be interested to know the vaccination status of the 12 people admitted to hospital who did not fall into one of the three categories of unvaccinated / 1 dose / 2 doses. o_O
 

nlogax

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I honestly think Gove is close to this opinion; or, at least, he hasn't done or said anything to dissuade me that he isn't.

He's not said much about lockdown easing for some weeks. Certainly one to keep a close eye on.

Albeit I’d be interested to know the vaccination status of the 12 people admitted to hospital who did not fall into one of the three categories of unvaccinated / 1 dose / 2 doses. o_O

Would assume their vaccination status can't be ascertained..records not yet updated, lost vax card etc.
 

BJames

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This interview on talkradio is with somebody who thinks restrictions shouldn't be eased and infact should last forever.

It is terrifying that somebody like this - educated at Cambridge, a trained Doctor, a former MP - can hold such selfish views. I fear there are many others like him.

-


It seems inevitable that there will be a delay to 21st June. Always just out of reach...
It is concerning, and these are the types of people to call us selfish for wanting to get back to normal life. He can stay cacooned up in his house for all I care - but he should not be trying to get the whole country to do the same. I think he's enjoying his comfortable life at home a bit too much and doesn't want to get back to reality.
 

Jamesrob637

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A recent poll within the travel industry (mine) suggests that three-quarters of staff prefer the choice of WFH or going into the office, and fewer than 1 in 10 people wish to work in the office full-time. Just over 1 in 10 prefer WFH full-time.

Based on this, we need a form of normality to resume, including this social distancing/obligatory masks malarkey to end, but not go back completely to how life was prior to mid-March 2020.
 

duncanp

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So only 1% of Indian variant cases were sufficiently ill to be admitted to hospital. (=126/12383)

Whilst the Indian variant may be more transmissible, it doesn't seem that it is more virulent, in that it is causing a lot of serious illness and death.

And two thirds of those admitted to hospital were unvaccinated.

These data clearly lend weight to the hypothesis that the vaccines are effective against the Indian variant.
 

TheBeard

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On this basis, Northern Covid Apartheid is being reintroduced. Despicable
 

Darandio

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It is concerning, and these are the types of people to call us selfish for wanting to get back to normal life. He can stay cacooned up in his house for all I care - but he should not be trying to get the whole country to do the same. I think he's enjoying his comfortable life at home a bit too much and doesn't want to get back to reality.

He's 86 years old, completely out of touch with reality, very comfortable financially and can let everyone else run around after him for the rest of his life. He hasn't got a care in the world. What is absolutely abhorrent is that he is suggesting everyone else needs to do the same, I cannot respect them any longer. These people have taken so much from us and when they have it so good themselves they couldn't give a toss about how it affects anyone else.

What is particularly galling is that I have accepted and received a vaccine that I didn't really care for having because it was claimed to be our way out. Ironically part of the bargain was to protect people like him.
 
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kristiang85

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He's 86 years old, completely out of touch with reality, very comfortable financially and can let everyone else run around after him for the rest of his life. He hasn't got a care in the world. What is absolutely abhorrent is that he is suggesting everyone else needs to do the same, I cannot respect them any longer. These people have taken so much from us and when they have it so good themselves they couldn't give a toss about how it affects anyone else.

What is particularly galling is that I have accepted and received a vaccine that I didn't really care for having because it was claimed to be our way out. Ironically part of the bargain was to protect people like him.

Yep, my feelings exactly.
 
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philosopher

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A recent poll within the travel industry (mine) suggests that three-quarters of staff prefer the choice of WFH or going into the office, and fewer than 1 in 10 people wish to work in the office full-time. Just over 1 in 10 prefer WFH full-time.

Based on this, we need a form of normality to resume, including this social distancing/obligatory masks malarkey to end, but not go back completely to how life was prior to mid-March 2020.
People should be free to choose what they want to do. If people want to social distance, wear masks or WFH most of the time, they should be free to do that. However providing they have no symptoms there should be no laws forcing people or guidance to do any of those things.
It is concerning, and these are the types of people to call us selfish for wanting to get back to normal life. He can stay cacooned up in his house for all I care - but he should not be trying to get the whole country to do the same. I think he's enjoying his comfortable life at home a bit too much and doesn't want to get back to reality.
Agree, I think it is now at the point that those advocating continuing restrictions, certainly once everyone has been offered the vaccines are the selfish ones.
 

big_rig

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He's 86 years old, completely out of touch with reality, very comfortable financially and can let everyone else run around after him for the rest of his life. He hasn't got a care in the world. What is absolutely abhorrent is that he is suggesting everyone else needs to do the same, I cannot respect them any longer. These people have taken so much from us and when they have it so good themselves they couldn't give a toss about how it affects anyone else.

What is particularly galling is that I have accepted and received a vaccine that I didn't really care for having because it was claimed to be our way out. Ironically part of the bargain was to protect people like him.
I almost feel sorry for the doddering old man because he was senile enough to say out loud what the rest of the Fake SAGE lot think but aren't silly enough to say in public - that they want this to last forever to 'save' every last life, no matter how many they ruin. At least unlike the rest of them he evidently realised by the end of it that he has absolutely no business opining on the matter in public.
 
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Crossover

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You can't really say that it was "inevitable" given that the relaxation of restrictions last summer didn't lead to any increase in infections.
But last summer we didn't have the Indian variant that you could catch by just looking at someone the wrong way. Neither did we have the Vietnamese hybrid variant that can be caught merely by being in the same postcode.
We also didn't have the mass testing that we do now - "the more you look, the more you'll find" and all that!
Tests carried out have notably dropped off in recent days, probably because of half term. What will be interesting is how much they go back up by afterwards as an indication of how much people care about this now; testing peaked between schools returning in March and Easter, but never returned to those levels after the Easter holidays, even though the twice weekly free tests' initiative was introduced by then.

Hospital admissions will need more time to see if there's a trend, but if a return to declines over the next few days emerges, or at least flatlining relative to rising cases, this will certainly look good.
Given testing was back around the 1.2m mark yesterday, it would seem the school holidays caused a temporary drop off
Just one reported death today. In Wales. From April 2020! So it's 0 if you do within 28 days. Okay I know it's a Sunday stat, but it's good going.
How do you find out the dates? I know about it for English hospitals, but not for others
 

YorkshireBear

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Local guidance extended from Bolton and Blackburn into Manchester and other parts of Lancashire. With the rate increases being seen in the north west and how localised it is I am concerned regional restrictions will make a comeback.

I am hopefully government will hold their nerve in the face of hospitals not becoming overrun.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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Local guidance extended from Bolton and Blackburn into Manchester and other parts of Lancashire. With the rate increases being seen in the north west and how localised it is I am concerned regional restrictions will make a comeback.

I am hopefully government will hold their nerve in the face of hospitals not becoming overrun.
NHS England data today certainly doesn't indicate NW Region is running ahead of any other area with total hospitalisations upto 879 from 860 yesterday with Midland region responsible for biggest numerical increase but its erratic from day to the next and over 7 day average Midlands is still in overall decline.
 
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