The problem with randomly chucking around risk increases figures for the unvaccinated is that the risk is not spread evenly across demographics. We all know that the people most likely to suffer serious illness from the virus are predominantly older people and people with compromised immune systems (also true for many other diseases). Telling a healthy 20 year old that they are 8 times more likely to die from covid unvaccinated is like telling them they are 8 times more likely to be crushed by a falling tree than a piano. The risks either way are still minute.
Now that might seem like an absurd analogy, but its no more absurd than the notion that people in low risk groups (i.e. the majority) are suddenly at serious risk if they choose not to have the vaccine. That's not to say they shouldn't be encouraged, but nonetheless they should be making the decision based on their own perceptions of risk, not guilted, discriminated, bullied or insulted into it. As for those in higher risk groups, that should be an issue for the individual and their doctors, not for the media or forums like this.
Indeed, however few live in isolation, and so many will opt to have the vaccine so that they reduce the risk that they pass the virus to someone that they know who is in a high risk group.
However over time they are likely to move to higher risk group, either through age or potentially (although less likely) getting an underlying heath issue.
However define risk, yes the risk of dying is very low, going to hospital is higher, however being off work (even if you ignore any guidance on self isolating) is likely to be fairly high.
Whilst they each have different consequences there's still a level of risk to the individual. As someone who is only paid when they work that could harm their finances quiet a bit to be off work for a week.
Someone with a vaccine aged 50-60 has about the risk of hospitalisation as someone without a vaccine aged 18-30 and about the same death rate as someone without the vaccine aged 30-40.
However as I've highlighted even a 1% rise in the number with the vaccine and a fairly low (40%) level of protection can make a large difference to the number of cases even after a fairly short period of time. If those cases get too high it is more likely to have unintended consequences, even if it isn't causing healthcare too much of an issue.
As I've said before there was a case cited of a vaccine which caused harm on a rate of 1:20,000 (a rate which is a lot higher than anyone has been able to show for the Covid vaccine). However that's still half the risk of dying on the roads in the next 12 months (which at 1:10,000 is under half the risk it was 25 years ago where with less traffic there was about double the deaths), and tiny compared to the 1:250 chance of dying on the roads at any time (again much reduced from the near past). That's before we consider the risk of serious injury from using roads.
Yet few would say that we should do much about road safety, even though it's a higher risk to them than a high risk vaccine (which isn't the same as the Covid vaccine).
What would you say to the family of someone who, due to your petty bullying, decided to get the vaccine, then subsequently died of complications due to the vaccine?
(It's a realistic scenario, so just answer the question)
If we take the number of deaths in the yellow card system (which is comparable to comparing deaths with Covid, as such is likely to over report) and compare that to the number of first doses only and the rate is 1:30,000. This compares with about 1:700 (assuming that the entire population has had Covid and 100,000 of the deaths with Covid were of Covid).
Now assuming that is the rate for someone aged 65, someone aged 25 would need to have a rate for death of Covid about 1/40th of that (which does appear to be about right) however for each year that passes the risk increases.
However that's on data which is skewed to over estimate the death rate from the vaccine and assumes that everyone had already had Covid and that about 30% of people died with but not of Covid and ignores any deaths not registered before testing was able to confirm then (which skews the risk of death from Covid much too low).
As such the risk is likely to be bigger from getting the virus for the vast majority of the population (not adjusted for heath issues, but done so by age).
Now whilst heath issues will be another factor and is likely to reduce many people's risk below the average for the age group there have been some very fit and healthy people who have died with Covid who you wouldn't have expected to.
As such, whilst anything is a risk and anyone's death causes upset to those around them, I would say nothing. Not because I am embarrassed about the vaccine, but because anything I could say would likely just cause further unnecessary upset at a time when they are wanting to grieve.