Step 3 confirmed for 17th May

[liam456]

Indeed, because its easier to offer solutions that keep subjects in boxes than it is to offer solutions that have more variables (i.e. people interacting). SAGE are currently in full panic mode as their dreams of being the kingmakers to the elimination of SARS-CoV-2 are falling apart, hence the increasingly desperate attempts to stop relaxations in their tracks.

I don't think that's entirely fair, surely, as they have just presided over the confirmation of the relaxation only three days ago!

 

[chris11256]

I'm sure the concerns are perfectly valid if we didn't have vaccines which have broken the link between cases & hospital admissions/deaths.

Ideally we should immediatly ramp up vaccinations to absolutely everyone in areas which which levels of the indian variant.

 

[kristiang85]

Stop the press, according to Prof Christina Pagel, we are not yet worthy of our soon-to-be granted further freedoms. She's not sure B.1.617.2 is not a threat and that 'moving to Stage 3 of the roadmap right now risks adding fuel to the fire'.

https://twitter.com/chrischirp/s ... 1999466501

I've just replied, she's dangerous given how many people are lapping it up. All it does is put doubt in the vaccines, which is a much bigger problem.

 

[Class 33]

I'm staying away from checking the media for a few hours. It won't do my stress and anxiety levels any good keep checking whilst there's this stupid emergency SAGE meeting today and reports that the 21st June stage could be delayed. I'll check again about 3pm to see what's happening. It had better not be bad news that we get today in the form a Downing Street News Conference.

At this stage though I don't know how an earth they could justify saying that already the 21st June stage will be delayed. I thought the review day for the 21st June easing is 14th June? That's another 4 and a half weeks away yet! And by then chances are they'll be able to see that this "variant of concern" and the situation with the case numbers/infection rates in the Bolton area has NOT led to a surge in hospitalizations and deaths, and therefore absolutely no reason to delay the 21st June easing.

 

[liam456]

I've just replied, she's dangerous given how many people are lapping it up. All it does is put doubt in the vaccines, which is a much bigger problem.

For sure, although it is twitter after all. People trip over themselves to be the most virtuous in the replies! It seems like many of these types believe that if they are inconvenciencing themselves, they must surely be doing something for the greater good, right?

Ideally we should immediatly ramp up vaccinations to absolutely everyone in areas which which levels of the indian variant.

This is a good point as I have been seeing murmurings of jabs in arms happening slower than vaccine deliveries recently.

 

[Bantamzen]

I don't think that's entirely fair, surely, as they have just presided over the confirmation of the relaxation only three days ago!

It is entirely fair, because one can now model when SAGE will ramp up (hint its usually around the time that decisions on, or relaxations are due to start). Its becoming clear that they want us cooped up in our boxes until they "beat" the virus.

 

[YorkshireBear]

Aye, think its time to turn the news off for a few days. They are lapping up the Indian variant concern. If they are right, the hospital cases will show it in a few weeks and then they can announce something for June 21st. I very much doubt that hospital cases will surge.

 

[kristiang85]

Aye, think its time to turn the news off for a few days. They are lapping up the Indian variant concern. If they are right, the hospital cases will show it in a few weeks and then they can announce something for June 21st. I very much doubt that hospital cases will surge.

The only problem is if there are more positive tests on patients going into hospital for unrelated reasons, so then it will look as if COVID admissions are going up. But hopefully overall numbers will remain stable... just I know it won't be reported like that.

 

[philosopher]

I've just replied, she's dangerous given how many people are lapping it up. All it does is put doubt in the vaccines, which is a much bigger problem.

The thing is she is not even in the medical research field. She is a mathematician who just happens to do a lot of health related work. Which makes me wonder should she going on about how dangerous opening up is when it not really her field of expertise.

 

[kristiang85]

The thing is she is not even in the medical research field. She is a mathematician who just happens to do a lot of health related work. Which makes me wonder should she going on about how dangerous opening up is when it not really her field of expertise.

Yes definitely. That's the problem with getting bogged down in the numbers and graphs - it just has no relation to the real world context, and unintended/intended consequences and collatoral damage.

I really worry at the direction public health as a concept in general is going; it seems to be ignoring the bigger picture.

 

[YorkshireBear]

The only problem is if there are more positive tests on patients going into hospital for unrelated reasons, so then it will look as if COVID admissions are going up. But hopefully overall numbers will remain stable... just I know it won't be reported like that.

Oh absolutely. Hence trying to keep off the news websites. Although I didn't follow my own advice and now see Boris is saying nothing is ruled out.... But then is cautiously optimistic so I am not sure what tone he is trying to strike.

 

[bramling]

Indeed. Just because hospitality isn't to blame, won't stop SAGE scapegoating it. They would ensure it was first to the sword regardless.

I think that what may save hospitality this time round might be that we are so far down the road, the political backlash of changing the May relaxation would be unacceptable to the Government.

Yes I think a mass of people are at the point where enough really is enough.

The trouble is though for every few of those, there’s still one who demands no more from life than working at home, spending their leisure time sipping alfresco coffee in a town square, and a week in Cornwall during August no doubt. As long as Boris delivers them this they don’t really give a toss.

I must say I’ve been feeling pretty depressed these last couple of weeks. Having some time off work I had a whole list of things to do. The indifferent weather has already scuppered a lot of this, and it’s not helped by stuff still being closed (or pre-book only), no hotels open, which makes things very difficult to plan. We managed some disused railway tunnels on Wednesday, albeit getting totally soaked in the process. Thanks Boris!

 

[yorksrob]

Yes I think a mass of people are at the point where enough really is enough.

The trouble is though for every few of those, there’s still one who demands no more from life than working at home, spending their leisure time sipping alfresco coffee in a town square, and a week in Cornwall during August no doubt. As long as Boris delivers them this they don’t really give a toss.

I must say I’ve been feeling pretty depressed these last couple of weeks. Having some time off work I had a whole list of things to do. The indifferent weather has already scuppered a lot of this, and it’s not helped by stuff still being closed (or pre-book only), no hotels open, which makes things very difficult to plan. We managed some disused railway tunnels on Wednesday, albeit getting totally soaked in the process. Thanks Boris!

Yes, the weather really hasn't helped over the last few weeks.

Hats off to those venues that persevered. I was in one pub garden on Saturday that braved the elements. Fortunately they seemed to be doing plenty of trade.

 

[Class 33]

After a few hours break from checking the news, I've just checked it to be greeted with this headline...

Lockdown easing next week 'should be called off' due to Indian variant - as doubts emerge over vaccine booster shots​

This had better not happen! We were told by Johnson on Monday that the 17th May easing would definitely be going ahead! I think there will be hell to pay if that is now called off. This would be absolutely unacceptable. It will mess up many businesses in the hospitality and leisure industry who are already preparing to reopen(or reopen to more capacity) on Monday! Many of these businesses are already on their knees struggling to stay afloat. As well as the mental health implications this will cause to many people again!

Nothing definite announced as to what is happening yet though. But we may well find out within the next few hours. So I'll hold off more comments yet.

 

[yorksrob]

After a few hours break from checking the news, I've just checked it to be greeted with this headline...

Lockdown easing next week 'should be called off' due to Indian variant - as doubts emerge over vaccine booster shots​

Jesus christ! This had better not happen! We were told by Johnson on Monday that the 17th May easing would definitely be going ahead! I think there will be hell to pay if that is now called off. This would be absolutely unacceptable. It will mess up many businesses in the hospitality and leisure industry who are already preparing to reopen(or reopen to more capacity) on Monday! Many of these businesses are already on their knees struggling to stay afloat. As well as the mental health implications this will cause to many people again!

Nothing definite announced as to what is happening yet though. But we may well find out within the next few hours. So I'll hold off more comments yet.

Depends who's saying it.

 

[Class 33]

Depends who's saying it.

So called "leading scientists" are saying it should be called off. Hope Johnson tells them to bugger off with their nonsense, and that the 17th May needs to go ahead as planned without fail!

 

[yorksrob]

So called "leading scientists" are saying it should be called off. Hope Johnson tells them to bugger off with their nonsense, and that the 17th May needs to go ahead as planned without fail!

It will be intersting to see if they're prepared to stake their name and reputation on it.

 

[NorthOxonian]

After a few hours break from checking the news, I've just checked it to be greeted with this headline...

Lockdown easing next week 'should be called off' due to Indian variant - as doubts emerge over vaccine booster shots​

Jesus christ! This had better not happen! We were told by Johnson on Monday that the 17th May easing would definitely be going ahead! I think there will be hell to pay if that is now called off. It will mess up many businesses in the hospitality and leisure industry who are already preparing to reopen on Monday! Many of these businesses are already on their knees struggling to stay afloat. As well as the mental health implications this will cause to many people again!

Nothing definite announced as to what is happening yet though. But we may well find out within the next few hours. So I'll hold off more comments yet.

That headline is in reference to Christina Pagel's comments (which were reported in this thread). As with the rest of independent SAGE, if she told me the sky was blue I'd go out and check.

 

[yorksrob]

Oh, Independant SAGE.

Nuff said.

 

[nlogax]

Depends who's saying it.

Working backwards from having had to google for the specific headline, this all leads back to Pagel and her morning tweets.

Move along, etc.

 

[yorksrob]

Move along, etc.

Indeed !

 

[Class 33]

That headline is in reference to Christina Pagel's comments (which were reported in this thread). As with the rest of independent SAGE, if she told me the sky was blue I'd go out and check.

Ah right. So she's not even a government advisor anyway, and this is just in response to her Tweets! Yet Sky News goes and puts it as BREAKING NEWS on their website! Absolutely ridiculous these people and the likes of Sky News!

Still no news about a hastily arranged Downing Street News Conference later to give us bad news. Thought we'd have heard by now if that was happening. So chances are next week's roadmap easing should go ahead.

 

[brad465]

The BBC now have an article talking about use of surge vaccinations potentially in Indian variant-hit areas:

Covid: Boris Johnson 'anxious' about Indian variant

UK cases of the variant have more than doubled in the past week, says Public Health England.

www.bbc.co.uk

Surge vaccinations have not been ruled out as a way to deal with the rise of the Indian variant, No 10 has said.

On a visit to Durham, Prime Minister Boris Johnson said he was "anxious" about the variant and did not rule out reintroducing regional restrictions.

But he said there was no evidence to suggest England's planned lockdown easing could not go ahead.

Covid jabs are already being opened to all over-18s in parts of Lancashire to tackle the Indian variant.

The government's scientific advisers, known as the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), are meeting later to discuss the spread of the Indian variant.

The India variant - officially called B.1.617.2 - is one of four mutated versions of coronavirus which have been designated as being "of concern" by UK public health bodies, with others first being identified in Kent, South Africa and Brazil.

Experts believe the Indian variant has mutations that may make it more transmissible, but it is not yet known if it causes more severe disease or if it might make current vaccines less effective.

Speaking at a primary school in Ferryhill, County Durham, Mr Johnson said: "It is a variant of concern, we are anxious about it.

"At the moment there is a very wide range of scientific opinion about what could happen.

"We want to make sure we take all the prudential, cautious steps now that we could take, so there are meetings going on today to consider exactly what we need to do.

"There is a range of things we could do, we are ruling nothing out."

The surge vaccination plan would mean focusing extra doses of the Covid-19 vaccine in specific areas to immunise a larger section of the population, and reduce the spread of variants.

Extra doses of the vaccines have been given to Blackburn and Darwen in Lancashire in order to open up jab appointments to all over-18s in the area.

The younger age groups will be offered the vaccine from next week, when surge testing will also take place, Blackburn and Darwen Council said.

But sources told the BBC that surge testing in areas where the variant has been found "isn't working".

The current strategy was identifying cases but not stopping the spread, they told the BBC.

The sources added that cases of the variant were being seen in many places with no links to travel and case numbers have been "grossly underestimated".

The BBC's senior political reporter Matt Cole said sources told him that while England was still expected to move to stage three of the roadmap out of lockdown on 17 May and the PM is thought to have signed off some reduction in social distancing measures. a politically difficult rethink may now be under consideration.

Questions are also being raised about the potential need to delay stage four, due on 21 June, when the government hoped to remove all legal limits on social contact.

One of the four key tests for ending coronavirus restrictions rests on the Covid-19 risks not being fundamentally changed by new variants.

At the end of the article there's a bit on the roadmap stages, where while they still expect stage 3 to continue next week, a "politically difficult rethink may now be under consideration", as well as questions about stage 4. I think it's a safe bet a large amount of uproar will be generated if next week's easement is delayed, especially given what all the stats are showing, to the point I don't see it happening, at least not quietly, with a reversal being an embarrassing u-turn. One area though of finger pointing I can see being made if this variant is the reason for any delay is towards Johnson's delay in getting India on the red list; it cannot be coincidence that they were put on it hours after Johnson cancelled his trip to India.

 

[kristiang85]

Still no news about a hastily arranged Downing Street News Conference later to give us bad news. Thought we'd have heard by now if that was happening. So chances are next week's roadmap easing should go ahead.

There is absolutely no justficiation to delay based on this slight rise in the north west, and based on a theory that the variant *might* be vaccine resistant (when the broad weight of evidence says it won't be).

This graphic puts it into perspective - this is the % of population in Bolton with a positive test. Even in the highest age groups, its next to nothing.

 

[Drogba11CFC]

Well it didn't take them long did it?

The usual <expletive deleted> locktivist rabble including (surprise, surprise) Professor Pantsdown are saying that the easing of lockdown from next Monday is going to trigger ANOTHER COVID WAVE.

Why can't they just go and take a running jump and leave the rest of us in peace to get on with our lives?

SAGE warns Britain's next Covid 'wave' will start from next week

SAGE files released tonight show that the scientists advising the Government have become 'more optimistic' about the dangers of the virus resurging in Britain after next week's rule changes.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Don't get me started on twitterati such as Colin Lockdown, Zerocovidzoe and Lockdown4life. They should be in prison.

 

[yorksrob]

Hopefully next weeks easing won't be postponed. I'm not so fussed about the June easings being strung out a bit.

 

[nlogax]

Don't get me started on twitterati such as Colin Lockdown, Zerocovidzoe and Lockdown4life. They should be in prison.

Why do you even read their tweets other than to wind yourself up? From briefly looking at their content it's evident to me that at least one of them is taking the mick for that specific purpose.

 

[Trackman]

Hopefully next weeks easing won't be postponed. I'm not so fussed about the June easings being strung out a bit.

I just think it will be local lockdowns with places like Bolton.
Hancock didn't rule this out earlier.

 

[Drogba11CFC]

Why do you even read their tweets other than to wind yourself up? From briefly looking at their content it's evident to me that at least one of them is taking the mick for that specific purpose.

I'm worried that, however ludicrous this seems, they may try to enforce their agenda themselves if the government doesn't.

 

[yorksrob]

I just think it will be local lockdowns with places like Bolton.
Hancock didn't rule this out earlier.

If you ask me, local lockdowns are pointless. If the situation is severe enough for a local lockdown, then it's severe enough to prioritise the local over 16's for vaccination.