The Future of Avanti Liverpool Stock Allocations

[Sorcerer]

I was originally intending to post this in the thread about the 2022 timetable changes in general, but I feel like it may spark discussions on it's own or at least risk going too off-topic, so therefore I have decided to make my own thread about this particular allocation. I hope this was the right decision on my half. But with that said, the December timetable change retimes the London to Liverpool services to xx:43 in both directions and will be pathed as an 807 service but will remain a 390 for the obvious reasons of the 807s not even being anywhere near ready for service. That is at least according to Realtime Trains when checking on the 12 December.

So with that in mind, does this set a precedent for the 807s eventually replacing the 390s on the Liverpool routes, or will the planned two trains per hour still eventually be going ahead in the future? As I previously understood it, one Liverpool train would be a 390 and the other would be an 807. However with the way Avanti's timetable has been lately, I just don't know what to expect from them anymore, so what's the planned stock allocations for the Liverpool services for Avanti in future if anyone knows? Is it still the current plan for a mixture of 390s and 807s, will it stay as a single train per hour with the 807s replacing the 390s eventually, or is it genuinely uncertain as of now? All I can say with confidence is that the second Liverpool service and 807s won't be coming anytime soon.

 

[The Planner]

I was originally intending to post this in the thread about the 2022 timetable changes in general, but I feel like it may spark discussions on it's own or at least risk going too off-topic, so therefore I have decided to make my own thread about this particular allocation. I hope this was the right decision on my half. But with that said, the December timetable change retimes the London to Liverpool services to xx:43 in both directions and will be pathed as an 807 service but will remain a 390 for the obvious reasons of the 807s not even being anywhere near ready for service. That is at least according to Realtime Trains when checking on the 12 December.

So with that in mind, does this set a precedent for the 807s eventually replacing the 390s on the Liverpool routes, or will the planned two trains per hour still eventually be going ahead in the future? As I previously understood it, one Liverpool train would be a 390 and the other would be an 807. However with the way Avanti's timetable has been lately, I just don't know what to expect from them anymore, so what's the planned stock allocations for the Liverpool services for Avanti in future if anyone knows? Is it still the current plan for a mixture of 390s and 807s, will it stay as a single train per hour with the 807s replacing the 390s eventually, or is it genuinely uncertain as of now? All I can say with confidence is that the second Liverpool service and 807s won't be coming anytime soon.

Second Liverpool still didnt have rights last time I checked. 807s are still a year off anyway.

 

[Jack Hay]

There was discussion a year or two ago suggesting that the second hourly Liverpool service should run on the historic route via Earlestown; not stopping there, but with calls at Lea Green or St Helens Junction to give St Helens a London service for the first time in decades, and a call at Warrington to give two London trains an hour there. This was seen as having better revenue generating potential than a second hourly service at Runcorn. Last time there was a big timetable recast, Liverpool-Earlestown hadn't been electrified so this wasn't possible, but now it is. Has the idea been abandoned? It sounded promising to me.

 

[Johnny Lewis]

There was discussion a year or two ago suggesting that the second hourly Liverpool service should run on the historic route via Earlestown; not stopping there, but with calls at Lea Green or St Helens Junction to give St Helens a London service for the first time in decades, and a call at Warrington to give two London trains an hour there. This was seen as having better revenue generating potential than a second hourly service at Runcorn. Last time there was a big timetable recast, Liverpool-Earlestown hadn't been electrified so this wasn't possible, but now it is. Has the idea been abandoned? It sounded promising to me.

I understood that Avanti's plan was for the second train per hour to stop at Liverpool South Parkway, so it would have to run via Runcorn. I think it's unlikely that they'd run via Runcorn but not stop there, but not impossible - who knows what Avanti might come up with these days?!

 

[Peter0124]

There was discussion a year or two ago suggesting that the second hourly Liverpool service should run on the historic route via Earlestown; not stopping there, but with calls at Lea Green or St Helens Junction to give St Helens a London service for the first time in decades, and a call at Warrington to give two London trains an hour there. This was seen as having better revenue generating potential than a second hourly service at Runcorn. Last time there was a big timetable recast, Liverpool-Earlestown hadn't been electrified so this wasn't possible, but now it is. Has the idea been abandoned? It sounded promising to me.

Doesn't Warrington already have two trains an hour to London? One of them is via BHM admittedly.

Otherwise yes that would be a decent routing, stronger Warrington BQ to Liverpool links since most of the Northern services via Earlestown got scrapped according to RTT.

 

[507020]

I understood that Avanti's plan was for the second train per hour to stop at Liverpool South Parkway

Based on this, my understanding was that the current hourly service, for which sufficient Pendolinos obviously already exist, will continue as a booked Pendolino and shortly be supplemented by a 2nd hourly service calling at Liverpool South Parkway and formed of an 807, which unlike a Pendolino will fit in the platforms at Liverpool South Parkway.

What I don’t know how much to expect of is whether the 390s and 807s will be able to stay on their diagrams or whether the services with the wrong stopping patterns will be run by the wrong units.

 

[dk1]

I would never be surprised if the planned 807 routes/timetable change again. As said we are a long way off their introduction yet & with Avanti in the mess it is with traincrew & overtime, it’s going to be delayed even further unless something gives.

 

[TT-ONR-NRN]

If Liverpool remains hourly permanently, a seven carriage 807 will not be sufficient for all the services that an eleven carriage Pendolino currently work.

 

[Peter0124]

The diagrams for the London Euston to Liverpool Lime Street services in December Mon-Fri are generally self contained now and units mainly just shuttle between London and Liverpool only except for a few in the morning/evening. Whereas beforehand most Liverpool arrivals went onto Glasgow. This is all according to RTTs platforming data. Which could suggest it was prepared to run using 807s.

 

[Taunton]

I've used the Liverpool service for many years, and in that time the use of Runcorn by long distance travellers seems to have slowly dimished. The rundown of the chemical industry on both shores of the river is one cause, and speaking to some locals the imposition of tolls on the bridge has dissuaded more than might be thought from the north side from crossing to the south, apart from the new bridge being far less convenient for driving to the station than the old bridge..

Quite why Liverpool South Parkway was built at great expense with platforms of insufficient length for trains to Liverpool's principal Inter-City destination, London, which pass through, but necessarily nonstop, has doubtless been discussed before. Last time I used it from London I had to wait so long at Runcorn for an onward connection that I might as well have gone through to Lime Street and come back.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The diagrams for the London Euston to Liverpool Lime Street services in December Mon-Fri are generally self contained now and units mainly just shuttle between London and Liverpool only except for a few in the morning/evening. Whereas beforehand most Liverpool arrivals went onto Glasgow. This is all according to RTTs platforming data. Which could suggest it was prepared to run using 807s.

807s would not provide enough capacity on an hourly service. 11 car Pendolinos are needed, even 9 is mostly insufficient. Hard to think of anywhere the 7 car 80x would be useful if the second Liverpool and the Brum semifast didn't end up running.

 

[TheBigD]

807s would not provide enough capacity on an hourly service. 11 car Pendolinos are needed, even 9 is mostly insufficient. Hard to think of anywhere the 7 car 80x would be useful if the second Liverpool and the Brum semifast didn't end up running.

Whilst i do not know the specific seating plans of the 807, if it has a similar interior layout to the LNER azuma/GWR IET, then the 7 car 807 will have a similar capacity to the 9 car pendolino, around 450-470 seats.

If they go for a Lumo style interior it would be a fair bit more.

 

[507020]

Liverpool's principal Inter-City destination, London

Surely Liverpool’s principal InterCity destination is Manchester?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Whilst i do not know the specific seating plans of the 807, if it has a similar interior layout to the LNER azuma/GWR IET, then the 7 car 807 will have a similar capacity to the 9 car pendolino, around 450-470 seats.

If they go for a Lumo style interior it would be a fair bit more.

As I said, 9 car is insufficient if hourly.

 

[Taunton]

What is it about UK rolling stock allocation that, just when there is the (occasional) ability to have some extra accommodation, things are switched around and you end up with even less.

Happens time after time. I quite expect if such new, shorter trains are put on Liverpool services to be passing full length Pendolinos sat in sidings. Wasn't long ago I used to go for an evening Euston to Birmingham train, and it turned out to be a 5-car Voyager.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Surely Liverpool’s principal InterCity destination is Manchester?

Nowhere near. I'd say that for every station in England with at least an hourly direct service to London, London will be the primary rail destination. Not necessarily because people don't want to go to the other places, but because driving to the other destinations is a lot less fraught than driving to London, so many will.

Liverpool is not as dependent on Manchester as one might think, indeed there is a strong anti-Manchester feeling in some so it's suppressed somewhat.

 

[43096]

Liverpool is not as dependent on Manchester as one might think, indeed there is a strong anti-Manchester feeling in some so it's suppressed somewhat.

That goes back to the building of the ship canal!

 

[frodshamfella]

I understood that Avanti's plan was for the second train per hour to stop at Liverpool South Parkway, so it would have to run via Runcorn. I think it's unlikely that they'd run via Runcorn but not stop there, but not impossible - who knows what Avanti might come up with these days?!

I understood that Avanti's plan was for the second train per hour to stop at Liverpool South Parkway, so it would have to run via Runcorn. I think it's unlikely that they'd run via Runcorn but not stop there, but not impossible - who knows what Avanti might come up with these days?!

I also heard then stop was to be Liverpool South Parkway to provide a London link for South Liverpool.

Nowhere near. I'd say that for every station in England with at least an hourly direct service to London, London will be the primary rail destination. Not necessarily because people don't want to go to the other places, but because driving to the other destinations is a lot less fraught than driving to London, so many will.

Liverpool is not as dependent on Manchester as one might think, indeed there is a strong anti-Manchester feeling in some so it's suppressed somewhat.

And that works the other way too, I would say.

As I said, 9 car is insufficient if hourly.

Quite so.

 

[Taunton]

Surely Liverpool’s principal InterCity destination is Manchester?

That's a regional destination.

Reminiscent of the DfT official back in BR days, in a discussion of the Newcastle-Carlisle line for rural support. Said official questioned why, surely it was an Inter-City service, as both Newcastle and Carlisle were cities.

 

[Bletchleyite]

That's a regional destination.

Reminiscent of the DfT official back in BR days, in a discussion of the Newcastle-Carlisle line for rural support. Said official questioned why, surely it was an Inter-City service, as both Newcastle and Carlisle were cities.

Are we back to "the busiest inter-city service is between the city of Westminster and the city of London"?

 

[Peter0124]

Nowhere near. I'd say that for every station in England with at least an hourly direct service to London, London will be the primary rail destination. Not necessarily because people don't want to go to the other places, but because driving to the other destinations is a lot less fraught than driving to London, so many will.

Liverpool is not as dependent on Manchester as one might think, indeed there is a strong anti-Manchester feeling in some so it's suppressed somewhat.

Don't mean to go off topic but Glasgow for example, would the principal Intercity destination be Edinburgh or London?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Don't mean to go off topic but Glasgow for example, would the principal Intercity destination be Edinburgh or London?

No idea, but the possibility of different demand profiles within Scotland and Wales was why I specifically said England

I'd expect for Edinburgh it's London, though, because of all the tourists.

 

[8A Rail]

Doesn't Warrington already have two trains an hour to London? One of them is via BHM admittedly.

Otherwise yes that would be a decent routing, stronger Warrington BQ to Liverpool links since most of the Northern services via Earlestown got scrapped according to RTT.

As far as I am aware the Northern Liverpool Lime St to WBQ (& rtn) service was temporary suspended due to Covid and latterly staffing issues. Currently there is a single mid afternoon train on that route during the week but it needs to be fully re-instated asap to assist with the sometimes overcrowding on the existing hourly LV - M/C stopper service. Weekends are especially terrible, to the extent I will not use them! The new December timetable still remains an hourly stopper service - just NOT good enough! The last thing the L&M route needs is an unwanted Avanti train going via Earlestown, as it won't do anything for the local people.

Hopefully by the time the Class 807's are ready, either the second hourly LV-Ldn service has been introduced or the Units are carted off somewhere else. They are NOT sufficient for the existing service, therefore (especially 11 car) Pendo's must remain on the service.

 

[Sorcerer]

I think it's safe to say that if Liverpool to London remains hourly then Pendolinos will be an absolute must because of capacity needs, and even half-hourly you'd need them because only ten 807s are being built, and you'd need at least five for self-contained round trips. Even assuming the others don't go the Birmingham semi-fast, you wouldn't have all ten units in service on a given day. That said, I would imagine a half-hourly Liverpool service would mean we'd have less need for an 11 coach Pendolino which could instead be used on busier London to Scotland routes.

 

[frodshamfella]

Considering how many tourists pour off at Lime Street from London, you wonder why this route wasn't made 2 per hour years ago.

 

[507020]

That's a regional destination.

Reminiscent of the DfT official back in BR days, in a discussion of the Newcastle-Carlisle line for rural support. Said official questioned why, surely it was an Inter-City service, as both Newcastle and Carlisle were cities.

Liverpool - Manchester does have an InterCity TransPennine Express service run with an 802 which will have its frequency doubled in December. Newcastle - Carlisle LNER diverts are indeed InterCity services but the Tyne Valley stopper not so much.

Don't mean to go off topic but Glasgow for example, would the principal Intercity destination be Edinburgh or London?

It will certainly be Edinburgh. There will be many more passengers using the high frequency services on 4 direct electrified lines between Edinburgh and Glasgow than the 2 lines between Edinburgh and London, or the 1 line between Glasgow and London, on which several trains run to Manchester Airport as opposed to continuing to Euston.

As far as I am aware the Northern Liverpool Lime St to WBQ (& rtn) service was temporary suspended due to Covid and latterly staffing issues. Currently there is a single mid afternoon train on that route during the week but it needs to be fully re-instated asap to assist with the sometimes overcrowding on the existing hourly LV - M/C stopper service. Weekends are especially terrible, to the extent I will not use them! The new December timetable still remains an hourly stopper service - just NOT good enough! The last thing the L&M route needs is an unwanted Avanti train going via Earlestown, as it won't do anything for the local people.

You won't be happy to know that even the daily 14:00 departure is withdrawn in December. 2F36 LIV - WBQ becomes 2A18 LIV - MIA running in the path of it at 14:00 when the Lime Street - Crewe service is split at Manchester Airport and retimed to depart on the hour.

 

[TT-ONR-NRN]

It will certainly be Edinburgh. There will be many more passengers using the high frequency services on 4 direct electrified lines between Edinburgh and Glasgow than the 2 lines between Edinburgh and London, or the 1 line between Glasgow and London, on which several trains run to Manchester Airport as opposed to continuing to Euston.

Surely you cannot count Edinburgh Glasgow as InterCity

 

[507020]

Surely you cannot count Edinburgh Glasgow as InterCity

The ScotRail services and intermediate stations are not InterCity, but the end to end flow is. Are CrossCountry and LNER services via Carstairs the only true InterCity ones?

 

[dk1]

The ScotRail services and intermediate stations are not InterCity, but the end to end flow is. Are CrossCountry and LNER services via Carstairs the only true InterCity ones?

I think they have to be now. Before electrification HSTs that operated beyond Edinburgh ran to Glasgow Queen St & where part of the half-hourly timetable between to two cities.

 

[8A Rail]

You won't be happy to know that even the daily 14:00 departure is withdrawn in December. 2F36 LIV - WBQ becomes 2A18 LIV - MIA running in the path of it at 14:00 when the Lime Street - Crewe service is split at Manchester Airport and retimed to depart on the hour.

I am aware of that already, as am aware the second train in the hour is a semi fast to and from Manchester Airport, neither use or ornament for the majority who use that line during the day in Merseyside. It's OK for me I just avoid using the train in the busy periods and at weekends, continue to use the car instead!!