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Transpennine Route Upgrade and Electrification updates

NotATrainspott

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I don't agree with the new policy, but it's entirely possible that the business case for bi-modes is now better than EMUs with electrification (over the lifetime of the rolling stock).
MML will go bi-mode and probably XC too.
The TP plans probably depend on what the route upgrade studies say in the autumn.
If they start talking about bi-modes on HS2 we will know electrification is dead.

Remember that the train fleet that will serve Sheffield is just beginning to be procured now. There's no sign of bi-mode or even BEMU in the spec, and given the intense requirements for reliability and mass I think it's highly unlikely they'll ever be. Not electrifying Clay Cross to Sheffield would be allowing the tail to wag the dog and messing up all of HS2's plans.
 
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Chester1

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According to the NR ranking of routes (2009 Electrification RUS), MML had the best business case of all, better than GW.
In fact it was so good it would be more expensive not to electrify than to electrify.
I suspect NR is now regretting making that statement.

Maybe but the costs might be different now, especially because of the long term target of reducing Manchester-Leeds to 40 and eventually 30 minutes. The political case for Transpennine is much stronger. Derbyshire County Council is in a turf war with Sheffield, Doncaster and Rotherham councils over Chesterfield District Councils wish to join the South Yorkshire City Region delaying South Yorkshire having a Combined Authority and elected Metro Mayor until 2020 at the earliest. Greater Manchester CA has been trusted with large devolution already and has been very vocal about further devolution and investment. The Tories have basically awknowledged that the north has been short changed on infrastructure for a very long time and have emphasised HS3/NPR etc, electrification and removal of pacers as part of their attempts to gain more footholds in the north.
 

LNW-GW Joint

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Remember that the train fleet that will serve Sheffield is just beginning to be procured now. There's no sign of bi-mode or even BEMU in the spec, and given the intense requirements for reliability and mass I think it's highly unlikely they'll ever be. Not electrifying Clay Cross to Sheffield would be allowing the tail to wag the dog and messing up all of HS2's plans.

This is from the Grayling statement:
We do not intend to proceed with plans to electrify the line from Kettering to Sheffield and Nottingham,
and there will be further investment to come to ensure Sheffield is HS2-ready.

The bold bit means either wires on the loop, or bi-mode trains on HS2 serving Sheffield.
 

Greybeard33

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One of the benefits of TP electrification would be to enable reintroduction of an hourly Northern Huddersfield to Manchester stopper. Then all six TPE services could run non-stop between Huddersfield and Stalybridge, instead of two of them having to make skip stop calls at the intermediate stations, as currently planned from May 2018.

A bi-mode or DMU stopper could not match EMU timings over the hills. The recent DfT announcements seem to have carefully ignored the benefits of electrification in speeding up stopping services and so increasing line capacity.
 

edwin_m

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The bold bit means either wires on the loop, or bi-mode trains on HS2 serving Sheffield.

I can't see bi-mode happening on HS2. Look at the fuss they made about the extra weight of tilting equipment, surely far less than having a diesel under each coach. To me also "Sheffield will be made HS2-ready" suggests infrastructure changes rather than a rolling stock solution.

It has the incidental benefit that the remaining bi-modes serving Sheffield on the conventional route can use electric power over the hilly section as far as Chesterfield.
 

Chris125

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Grayling is in FT talking about a Transpennine 'u-turn'(search google news for the story) - the MEN also cover it.


It *seems* Transpennine electrification may not be dead as feared, but discontinuous.

“We don’t need to electrify all of every route. There are places that are built in Victorian times where it is very difficult to put up electric cables. If there are bits of the Transpennine network that are complicated to do and we have a bi-mode train we can say, ‘Here is a section we can have a diesel’. We will be electrifying Transpennine but we can do it in a smarter way"


The extra platforms at Manchester Piccadilly are still under discussion too:

"I want them to see if it is question of additional platforms or whether they can do something with digital technology that actually increases capacity"
 

47802

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Grayling is in FT talking about a Transpennine 'u-turn'(search google news for the story) - the MEN also cover it.


It *seems* Transpennine electrification may not be dead as feared, but discontinuous.

“We don’t need to electrify all of every route. There are places that are built in Victorian times where it is very difficult to put up electric cables. If there are bits of the Transpennine network that are complicated to do and we have a bi-mode train we can say, ‘Here is a section we can have a diesel’. We will be electrifying Transpennine but we can do it in a smarter way"


The extra platforms at Manchester Piccadilly are still under discussion too:

"I want them to see if it is question of additional platforms or whether they can do something with digital technology that actually increases capacity"

I have to say I do think that is a bit of a nonsense much more so than the MML, to do the core electrification between Stalybridge if that's still happening and Colton Junction isn't a massive distance even if there are some difficult bits, you've got the bit around Leeds already done it would allow Newcastle/Edinburgh services to go all electric along with probably a local service, with bi-modes for the rest. Bi-mode is certainly the new electrification cop out which quite a few people said it would be and it looks like they were right.

Yes I think the Bi-mode concept is good but whether its good to point of just doing random bits of electrification on the basis of what is supposedly the most cost effective I'm not so sure.
 
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LNW-GW Joint

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It *seems* Transpennine electrification may not be dead as feared, but discontinuous.
“We don’t need to electrify all of every route. There are places that are built in Victorian times where it is very difficult to put up electric cables. If there are bits of the Transpennine network that are complicated to do and we have a bi-mode train we can say, ‘Here is a section we can have a diesel’. We will be electrifying Transpennine but we can do it in a smarter way"
The extra platforms at Manchester Piccadilly are still under discussion too:
"I want them to see if it is question of additional platforms or whether they can do something with digital technology that actually increases capacity"

It's difficult to tell if he's just bumbling away like minsters do, or trying to articulate a real policy.
His TP statement only makes sense if every train is a bi-mode, which at the moment is not the plan - there are only going to be 12 of them.
Victoria-Colton Jn is about 60 miles of mostly double track to wire - not a big scheme really.
Nobody has said that the two long tunnels (Standedge and Morley), or any other part of the route, are problematic to wire.

On the Piccadilly/Oxford Road scheme, he waves "digital railway" at it and expects miracles.
Nobody has ever solved the complex issues of pathing trains on this corridor to date despite major investment, and existing options go unused.
These are, eg, alternate platforming at Oxford Road, double-platforming at Piccadilly, and using the bi-di signalling.
It seems to me he is just kicking the can down the road.
 

Senex

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Victoria-Colton Jn is about 60 miles of mostly double track to wire - not a big scheme really.
Nobody has said that the two long tunnels (Standedge and Morley), or any other part of the route, are problematic to wire.

And by far the most complicated section — Leeds station — is already wired.

As to the tunnels, Standedge is the newer double-line tunnel which must have been built to full BoT requirements and no-one has ever mentioned problems with Morley — so as in other areas double-line tunnels should not be a significant problem.

On the Piccadilly/Oxford Road scheme, he waves "digital railway" at it and expects miracles.

And we've had the promises of how marvellous new signalling was going to solve all problems in the past. ETCS Level 3 anyone?
 

Chester1

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And we've had the promises of how marvellous new signalling was going to solve all problems in the past. ETCS Level 3 anyone?

I am not sure if the current signalling upgrade has finished yet but it should increase capacity on the Deansgate-Oxford Road-Piccadilly section to 12tph + 2tph terminating at Oxford Road. Building platforms 15 and 16 at Piccadily would enable platform 5 at Oxford Road to be closed allowing platforms 1-4 to be extended, increasing capacity to 16tph with no trains terminating at Oxford Road. Its not implausible that a further signalling upgrade could increase capacity but it would probably cost more than building the two extra through platforms at Piccadilly if it required every train to use ETCS! Sounds like Grayling is clutching at straws.
 

Greybeard33

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It's difficult to tell if he's just bumbling away like minsters do, or trying to articulate a real policy.
His TP statement only makes sense if every train is a bi-mode, which at the moment is not the plan - there are only going to be 12 of them.
Victoria-Colton Jn is about 60 miles of mostly double track to wire - not a big scheme really.
Nobody has said that the two long tunnels (Standedge and Morley), or any other part of the route, are problematic to wire.
Quite. TPE's 802 bi-mode fleet will only be able to work 2tph over the TP core. If electrification is discontinuous, the other 4tph will have to be diesel under the wires (68s and 185s). And the only benefit the 802s will get from the OLE, compared with running on diesel all the way, will be a slight saving on fuel and maintenance costs, plus perhaps a slight reduction in journey time. So the BCR for the investment in the discontinuous electrification will surely be atrocious?

Or maybe Grayling's "smarter way" of electrifying TP is really a coded way of saying that the wires will stop at Stalybridge, with the "bits that are hard to do" meaning Stalybridge to Copley Hill E Jn and Neville Hill to Colton Jn? <(
 

Bwlch y Groes

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Or maybe Grayling's "smarter way" of electrifying TP is really a coded way of saying that the wires will stop at Stalybridge, with the "bits that are hard to do" meaning Stalybridge to Copley Hill E Jn and Neville Hill to Colton Jn? <(

My gut feeling is this is probably about right - at best they'll do York-Leeds as well because it's straight forward and connecting cities, but that's about it. The cancellation of the other projects has been rumbling around in the background for some time, which is why some journalists were ahead of the game - I work for a TOC and it's effectively been an open secret that Windermere electrification was very likely to be canned for the last few months (hence the 319 Flexes - they were primarily meant for that route). This latest statement from Grayling feels like a preparation for another climbdown. I suspect it'll slowly leak out.

It's especially galling as he clearly has no idea what he's talking about - the obvious giveaway, as has already been pointed out, is the nonsense he's spouting about Man Picc being solved by digital somethingorother, because the expansion of Man Picc is absolutely critical to the Northern Hub/Powerhouse. I don't believe he is clueless as to what he's doing, though - he's just an ideologue.

It's very worrying, considering TP electrification had already been cut back with the cancellation of Selby-Hull electrification not so long ago. TPE will be gutted - they've based so much of their publicity campaign around the 802s on the eventual electrification. The bi-mode aspect was just meant to be a stop-gap for a few years.

Also is it just me or is there an allusion in the FT article (can't see it now as it's gone behind the paywall) to potentially canning HS3 as well? That would be even more disastrous.
 
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Senex

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Also is it just me or is there an allusion in the FT article (can't see it now as it's gone behind the paywall) to potentially canning HS3 as well? That would be even more disastrous.
That really would be adding insult to injury — multi-billions for London's HS2 (and no doubt for Crossrail 2 before too long) and just the sops for the Midlands and North, with no electrification of the MML and TPE and utterly inadequate new stock. What are the figures for transport investment per head for Greater London and the Sotuh-East on the one hand and for the East Midlands, Yorkshire, and the North-East on the other? (Oh, and I did notice the other day that the £1.5bn investment in the A14 between the M1 and Cambridge is forging ahead with massive works on site in their very early stages. No question of chopping that, of course .....)
 

Bwlch y Groes

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That really would be adding insult to injury — multi-billions for London's HS2 (and no doubt for Crossrail 2 before too long) and just the sops for the Midlands and North, with no electrification of the MML and TPE and utterly inadequate new stock. What are the figures for transport investment per head for Greater London and the Sotuh-East on the one hand and for the East Midlands, Yorkshire, and the North-East on the other? (Oh, and I did notice the other day that the £1.5bn investment in the A14 between the M1 and Cambridge is forging ahead with massive works on site in their very early stages. No question of chopping that, of course .....)

Yeah, even if I have misread it, I can see HS3 being delayed, downscaled or eventually cancelled, especially if HS2 ends up being the white elephant so many expect it to be and high speed lines go out of fashion here. Of course a new transpennine is probably far more necessary than HS2, and doesn't have to be high speed to be an improvement - Leeds-Hudd-Manchester is a great journey but it's not a particularly efficient one

And yes, I know it's a cliche now but it's very frustrating looking at all London is getting and seeing "our" projects cancelled or put on hold - not just Crossrail 2 being moved forward but also the Northern and Bakerloo extensions. I recently saw one political journalist on Twitter, without a hint of irony, call for "Crossrail 3, 4 and 5" and "HS4 and HS5". Ironically he also suggested moving the capital from London to Manchester for some reason
 

matacaster

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My gut feeling is this is probably about right - at best they'll do York-Leeds as well because it's straight forward and connecting cities, but that's about it. The cancellation of the other projects has been rumbling around in the background for some time, which is why some journalists were ahead of the game - I work for a TOC and it's effectively been an open secret that Windermere electrification was very likely to be canned for the last few months (hence the 319 Flexes - they were primarily meant for that route). This latest statement from Grayling feels like a preparation for another climbdown. I suspect it'll slowly leak out.

It's especially galling as he clearly has no idea what he's talking about - the obvious giveaway, as has already been pointed out, is the nonsense he's spouting about Man Picc being solved by digital somethingorother, because the expansion of Man Picc is absolutely critical to the Northern Hub/Powerhouse. I don't believe he is clueless as to what he's doing, though - he's just an ideologue.

It's very worrying, considering TP electrification had already been cut back with the cancellation of Selby-Hull electrification not so long ago. TPE will be gutted - they've based so much of their publicity campaign around the 802s on the eventual electrification. The bi-mode aspect was just meant to be a stop-gap for a few years.

Also is it just me or is there an allusion in the FT article (can't see it now as it's gone behind the paywall) to potentially canning HS3 as well? That would be even more disastrous.

I reckon HS3 was the answer to northern politicians moaning about all the investment going to London. The trouble is if you are in London and you look at a simple map, you can see the lines from Newcastle to Liverpool are all anything but in a straight line. However, as a southern politician, you might be forgiven for missing the barrier that is the pennines and also the proximity of the medium and large conurbations to each other that mean that a 300KMPH train will barely have got up to speed before it has to brake hard. I sa train from Manchester to Leeds going to miss out on 5M+ passengers at Huddersfield? To get a straight track between Leeds and Manchester, you would need massive and very lengthy tunnelling through Yorkshire stone. The existing tunnels would be pretty useless for high speed running.
 

HSTEd

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However, as a southern politician, you might be forgiven for missing the barrier that is the pennines and also the proximity of the medium and large conurbations to each other that mean that a 300KMPH train will barely have got up to speed before it has to brake hard. I sa train from Manchester to Leeds going to miss out on 5M+ passengers at Huddersfield?

Shinkansen experience says otherwise.
With stops every 20 miles you can average over 110mph, including stop allowances. Trains on the Tōkaidō Shinkansen do it every day.
 

edwin_m

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The government has created another elephant trap for itself with HS3. They've built up an expectation that it will be a high speed line right across the North, so when inevitably it turns out to be something less than that then lots of people will feel let down - even if that is actually the right thing to do in railway terms.
 

ac6000cw

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That really would be adding insult to injury — multi-billions for London's HS2 (and no doubt for Crossrail 2 before too long) and just the sops for the Midlands and North, with no electrification of the MML and TPE and utterly inadequate new stock. What are the figures for transport investment per head for Greater London and the Sotuh-East on the one hand and for the East Midlands, Yorkshire, and the North-East on the other? (Oh, and I did notice the other day that the £1.5bn investment in the A14 between the M1 and Cambridge is forging ahead with massive works on site in their very early stages. No question of chopping that, of course .....)

It's the section of the A14 between the A1 (not M1) and Cambridge that is (after many years of foot dragging and 'announcements') being upgraded. That part is shared between the M11-A1 north-south route and the A14 east-west route. These are both nationally important routes - the eastern end of the A14 is at Felixstowe (busiest container port in the country) and the M11-A1 carries a fair amount of cross-channel freight that's heading further north. Just stand on one of overbridges on that section and watch the trucks go by (slowly, due to congestion)...

Yes, more of that freight should go by train, but both of the routes west of Ipswich to the Midlands and the North are capacity constrained, and since people seem to want more passenger trains on the same routes that situation isn't likely to get much better for some time. One of the main reasons for building the southern part of HS2 is to free up capacity on the classic route to the Midlands for other traffic, including freight.

Geography and present-day trading and shipping patterns mean that inevitably a major part of our international trade flows though southern England - it needs the infrastructure to handle it, otherwise the whole country suffers.

Personally I've never really understood why at least one of the northern trans-Pennine rail routes wasn't electrified years ago. And as for 'discontinuous' electrification of a route with a very high frequency train service - I despair, it makes me feel embarrassed as an engineer that it's even being considered. It's not 'smart' it's just weasel-word penny-pinching.
 
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furnessvale

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Geography and present-day trading and shipping patterns mean that inevitably a major part of our international trade flows though southern England - it needs the infrastructure to handle it, otherwise the whole country suffers.

Personally I've never really understood why at least one of the northern trans-pennine rail routes wasn't electrified years ago.

Years ago, one was. Then it was closed. Nothing changes really! :(
 

ac6000cw

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Years ago, one was. Then it was closed. Nothing changes really! :(

Note I specifically said 'northern trans-Pennine' route. I assume you mean the Woodhead route (which is usually regarded as a southern trans-Pennine route).

That was electrified specifically for hauling coal across the Pennines (there were only 7 passenger EM2s built, versus 58 freight EM1s) due to the difficulties of using steam power for the heavy coal traffic. It was a 1930s scheme delayed by WW2 - by the time it was resumed in the late 1940s they probably could have more efficiently dieselised the traffic so as much as possible flowed directly from mines to destinations, without all the costly intermediate marshalling and traction changes that electrification introduced. It's a classic illustration of the issues with 'discontinuous' electrification - it becomes an incentive not to use it (or abandon it when the equipment becomes life-expired).
 

QueensCurve

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I don't agree with the new policy, but it's entirely possible that the business case for bi-modes is now better than EMUs with electrification (over the lifetime of the rolling stock).
MML will go bi-mode and probably XC too.
The TP plans probably depend on what the route upgrade studies say in the autumn.
If they start talking about bi-modes on HS2 we will know electrification is dead.

It is sadly true that this is the case. The last 8y offered the hope of network electrification but it has been killed off by engineering incompetence, regulatory incompetence, political incompetence and, yes, Brexit.
 

lejog

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My gut feeling is this is probably about right - at best they'll do York-Leeds as well because it's straight forward and connecting cities, but that's about it. The cancellation of the other projects has been rumbling around in the background for some time, which is why some journalists were ahead of the game - I work for a TOC and it's effectively been an open secret that Windermere electrification was very likely to be canned for the last few months (hence the 319 Flexes - they were primarily meant for that route). This latest statement from Grayling feels like a preparation for another climbdown. I suspect it'll slowly leak out.

Transpennine (non-?)electrification (now known as Transpennine Upgrade) has been widely discussed in the Stalybridge thread in the months this thread remained dormant. The DfT are not being as coy as Grayling and have publicly presented that "if target times of 40 minute to Leeds and 62 minutes to York from Manchester can be achieved by diesel traction then there will be no wires saving £1.3bn".

I'm afraid that Network Rail have done themselves no favours with politicians (both local and central government) by ploughing ahead with plans for straight electrification which resulted in zero reduction in Manchester to Leeds journey time. A classic example of focusing on a solution (electrification) at the expense of the requirement on which the business case was based (40 min journey time). As discussed in the Stalybridge thread, after unpausing, Network Rail have restarted the project with a combination of speed improvements and electrificaion, but cost estimates have ballooned from £250m to £x bns.

It's especially galling as he clearly has no idea what he's talking about - the obvious giveaway, as has already been pointed out, is the nonsense he's spouting about Man Picc being solved by digital somethingorother, because the expansion of Man Picc is absolutely critical to the Northern Hub/Powerhouse. I don't believe he is clueless as to what he's doing, though - he's just an ideologue.

The expansion of Man Piccadilly is certainly not critical to the Northern Hub, just another example of Network Rail focusing on engineering solutions. The business case for the Northern Hub depends on improved journey opportunities, which are being implemented in the joint Northern/TPE May 2018 timetable (subject to ORR approval). There are no further services planned during the current franchise, so its hardly surprising that decision makers are asking why anything should be done (or at least done yet).

It's very worrying, considering TP electrification had already been cut back with the cancellation of Selby-Hull electrification not so long ago. TPE will be gutted - they've based so much of their publicity campaign around the 802s on the eventual electrification. The bi-mode aspect was just meant to be a stop-gap for a few years.

TPE signed a franchise agreement that made it clear that there were no assumed dates for electrification or even that electrification would occur during the franchise.

Also is it just me or is there an allusion in the FT article (can't see it now as it's gone behind the paywall) to potentially canning HS3 as well? That would be even more disastrous.

HS3 has been dead for years now, its called NPR, no High Speed whatsoever. Which is good because as I posted on the relevant thread, Rail North have been busying themselves recently looking at what other cities/towns should be served - pertinent to this thread are Rochdale, Huddersfield, Bradford and York.

Rail North are due to announce details of NPR during 2018, Network Rail are due to have a preferred single option for improved line speeds/electrification/both by then also, since the two are interlinked I wouldn't expect any decisions to be made before next year.
 
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Senex

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It's the section of the A14 between the A1 (not M1) and Cambridge that is (after many years of foot dragging and 'announcements') being upgraded. That part is shared between the M11-A1 north-south route and the A14 east-west route. These are both nationally important routes - the eastern end of the A14 is at Felixstowe (busiest container port in the country) and the M11-A1 carries a fair amount of cross-channel freight that's heading further north. Just stand on one of overbridges on that section and watch the trucks go by (slowly, due to congestion)...

I travelled over that road twice last week. It was certainly very busy indeed, with huge numbers of HGVs, but traffic was moving quite quickly in both directions (and would have done even better but the number of HGVs trying to overtake one another with a minimal speed-differential) except for the 5 or 6 miles west of Cambridge where the widening works are just beginning, where we came to a brief standstill several times. There is absolutely no doubt that the rebuilding of the road between the M1 and Cambridge is fully justified. My point was simply that this £1.5bn project that has barely begun goes ahead without even being de-specked, whereas equally necessary improvements to railways in more northern areas of the country get cut back or cancelled — and much as I'm a supporter of the MML, it's more the appallingly overcrowded and low-quality route between Manchester and Leeds that I'm thinking of.

If we look back, the general south-eastern area has had HS1, Reading station, Crossrail, Thameslink, and Gordon Brown Cardiff-Labour-pleasing GW electrification in recent years, and now looks set to get Crossrail 2. The north-west has had some electrification infill (useful, but small-scale) and the Ordsall Chord scheme that may well run out of capacity in a very few years. What has the north-east had? The imbalance in transport investment of all sorts, not just rail, is enormous. Yet unless we accept that London is to continue to move away from the rest of the country economically investment in the so-called provinces really is needed. Will the City Regions help? It will be interesting to see.

Yes, more of that freight should go by train, but both of the routes west of Ipswich to the Midlands and the North are capacity constrained, and since people seem to want more passenger trains on the same routes that situation isn't likely to get much better for some time. One of the main reasons for building the southern part of HS2 is to free up capacity on the classic route to the Midlands for other traffic, including freight.

The capacity for freight was always there on the four-track main lines. What seems to have happened is that the inexorable growth and spread of London commuter traffic seems to have swallowed up the slow-line capacity, be trying its best to swallow up fast-line capacity too, and to be the main justification for the insistence on building the southern part of HS2 first. Other things being equal, I would be an HS2 enthusiast (in a slightly different form), having seen what high-speed lines in other European countries have done, but they are not equal, and if investment is limited, then I think the needs of the area bounded by Birmingham, Liverpool, Manchester, Leeds, Sheffield, and back to Birmingham are probably now greatest.

Geography and present-day trading and shipping patterns mean that inevitably a major part of our international trade flows though southern England - it needs the infrastructure to handle it, otherwise the whole country suffers.

No problem with that — but not at the expense of the rest of the country. A properly balanced policy is needed.

Personally I've never really understood why at least one of the northern trans-Pennine rail routes wasn't electrified years ago.

I agree completely. I put it down in part to the British Railways Regions which always seemed to be interested only in the main lines to and from London (with perhaps just a trifle of interest in the NE/SW line) and which seemed to leave Lancashire and Yorkshire lines languishing in very much the state they had been before WW2.

And as for 'discontinuous' electrification of a route with a very high frequency train service - I despair, it makes me feel embarrassed as an engineer that it's even being considered. It's not 'smart' it's just weasel-word penny-pinching.

Absolutely! Unfortunately, how British!
 

lejog

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Personally I've never really understood why at least one of the northern trans-Pennine rail routes wasn't electrified years ago. And as for 'discontinuous' electrification of a route with a very high frequency train service - I despair, it makes me feel embarrassed as an engineer that it's even being considered. It's not 'smart' it's just weasel-word penny-pinching.

Sorry to say this but IMHO its the engineers that have caused many of the problems. Politicians can't provide an infinitely flexible budget, if costs soar its quite simply the case that fewer projects will be done. If engineering solutions don't meet fundamental requirements (tp electrification), or turn out to be unnecessary to meet the requirements (Piccadilly), then these projects will be amongst those canned.
 
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Senex

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Sorry to say this but IMHO its the engineers that have caused many of the problems. Politicians can't provide an infinitely flexible budget, if costs soar its quite simply the case that fewer projects will be done.

I agree completely with both points.

If engineering solutions don't meet fundamental requirements (tp electrification), or turn out to be unnecessary to meet the requirements (Piccadilly), then these projects will be amongst those canned.

Who briefed the engineers for TP? Why were the initial electrification plans drawn up on the basis that all that was needed was stringing up the wires when there seem to have been plenty of people around able to point out that this wouldn't deliver either the desired speeds or the desired capacity?

With Piccadilly it's rather different. It may be that the station can squeeze by for some more years with the present platforms 13 and 14, but those platforms and the chaos that already all too regularly reigns on them don't really present an adequate railway environment for a major city in the present day.
 

ac6000cw

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Sorry to say this but IMHO its the engineers that have caused many of the problems. Politicians can't provide an infinitely flexible budget, if costs soar its quite simply the case that fewer projects will be done. If engineering solutions don't meet fundamental requirements (tp electrification), or turn out to be unnecessary to meet the requirements (Piccadilly), then these projects will be amongst those canned.

I actually doubt (for the most part) that the problems have been caused the design engineers 'at the coalface' - it's far more likely to have been a combination of changing requirements and poor project management. My experience (all non-rail related) is that most engineers are competent, a few are very talented, and a few are incompetent/disinterested. This is much the same in any job.

How projects can go wrong was nicely illustrated in a post on another thread:

I haven't worked for the government but I wouldn't be surprised if it suffers from the same failings as other large organisations. Here's a common IT scenario:

1) A director wants to implement a new IT system and guesses that it might cost £10m.

2) A working group puts a plan together and estimates that it's going to cost something like £50m.

3) The director throws a strop and demands that they figure out a way to reduce the cost to no more than £15m.

4) Under unrelenting pressure, the hapless project manager puts together a best-case "happy path" plan, in which everything goes perfectly, for an estimated cost of £20m.

5) The project is signed off. It ends up costing £50m, and somehow everyone is surprised and outraged.

Perhaps the railway is subject to the same sort of nonsense. In any event, I don't doubt that more deliberation is required but also more listening - yes, if you shout loudly enough you might eventually get the answer that you wanted, but only because you're incentivising people to lie to you.

I've seen the above general scenario play out so many times in the 37 years I've been designing electronics equipment (both as an employee and an outside contractor/consultant) that I almost expect it to happen to some degree. Most people involved in the project know what's going on, but someone up the decision making hierarchy doesn't want to listen. The problem is usually caused by a mixture of human nature and a lack of experience of the project costing process amongst the higher management (so they don't know how to properly 'sanity check' the information they are presented with. That works both ways, estimates can be unrealistically high sometimes rather than too low. If they know they don't have the knowledge they should get an 'uninvolved' competent person to advise them and ask the awkward questions).

Getting another view on a project estimate is a very *good* use of outside consultants - I know some people around this forum deride them, but if used carefully (don't give them a blank cheque and a vague spec!) they can provide a good sanity check.
 
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lejog

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With Piccadilly it's rather different. It may be that the station can squeeze by for some more years with the present platforms 13 and 14, but those platforms and the chaos that already all too regularly reigns on them don't really present an adequate railway environment for a major city in the present day.

I agree, although Northern have some responsibilities in their Franchise Spec to tackle overcrowding in the short term. But that still doesn't make it a critical part of the Hub, just that Network Rail tried (and may have now failed) to implement out it of the Hub budget.

Who briefed the engineers for TP? Why were the initial electrification plans drawn up on the basis that all that was needed was stringing up the wires when there seem to have been plenty of people around able to point out that this wouldn't deliver either the desired speeds or the desired capacity?

Dunno who "briefed" the engineers. I do know that where I've worked (not in the rail industry), continuously tracing that requirements are being met is a fundamental part of engineering processes during all stages of design/implementation. Accurately reporting these and deciding what to do about any deviations is part of the project management process. Failure to follow either (or both) of these often leads to the "green light, green light, green light, red light" phenomenon, seen here. It would be interesting to know what requirements tracing (oops a software engineering term) was being carried out during the project.

I actually doubt (for the most part) that the problems have been caused the design engineers 'at the coalface' - it's far more likely to have been a combination of changing requirements and poor project management. My experience (all non-rail related) is that most engineers are competent, a few are very talented, and a few are incompetent/disinterested. This is much the same in any job..

Its certainly not a change of business requirements in this case. The original requirements for Manchester-Leeds services coming out of the old Manchester Hub Phase 1 project were 4tph fast trains with a target journey time of 40 mins reducing to 30mins. This is still the case for the current Transpennine Upgrade project.

How projects can go wrong was nicely illustrated in a post on another thread:

I've seen the above general scenario play out so many times in the 37 years I've been designing electronics equipment (both as an employee and an outside contractor/consultant) that I almost expect it to happen to some degree. Most people involved in the project know what's going on, but someone up the decision making hierarchy doesn't want to listen. The problem is usually caused by a mixture of human nature and a lack of experience of the project costing process amongst the higher management (so they don't know how to properly 'sanity check' the information they are presented with. That works both ways, estimates can be unrealistically high sometimes rather than too low. If they know they don't have the knowledge they should get an 'uninvolved' competent person to advise them and ask the awkward questions).

Getting another view on a project estimate is a very *good* use of outside consultants - I know some people around this forum deride them, but if used carefully (don't give them a blank cheque and a vague spec!) they can provide a good sanity check.

As a sometimes project manager/programme director/bid manager/consultant I guess I come out level on that assessment. :D The reasons for project failures are well known - there have books on the subject for decades now. But they usually boil down to one thing, to produce accurate bottom-up costs, you really need to have carried out a design that is detailed down to a level where estimates of materials and labour of each component can be carried out, but is also complete (missing components always add to cost). Then as you say you have to ban (or attempt to manage) changes while the design is implemented and to avoid trends towards gold-plated solutions. These things are very much joint project management/technical responsibilities, I was lumping the two together as "engineering solutions".

Of course such utopian projects don't come along that often, for reasons such as those you give.
 
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snowball

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I travelled over that road twice last week. It was certainly very busy indeed, with huge numbers of HGVs, but traffic was moving quite quickly in both directions (and would have done even better but the number of HGVs trying to overtake one another with a minimal speed-differential) except for the 5 or 6 miles west of Cambridge where the widening works are just beginning, where we came to a brief standstill several times. There is absolutely no doubt that the rebuilding of the road between the M1 and Cambridge is fully justified. My point was simply that this £1.5bn project that has barely begun goes ahead without even being de-specked, whereas equally necessary improvements to railways in more northern areas of the country get cut back or cancelled — and much as I'm a supporter of the MML, it's more the appallingly overcrowded and low-quality route between Manchester and Leeds that I'm thinking of.
Once again, the A14 scheme starts on the A1, not the M1.

It's a massive contract in full swing. It would have been a legal, technical, administrative and financial nightmare to de-spec it. Started contracts are almost never de-specced. It's not comaparable to TP electrification or Oxenholme-Windermere, on which construction is not near to starting, or Kettering-Sheffield or Cardiff-Swansea, for which only isolated, self-contained preliminary works have been done.
 

IanXC

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Who briefed the engineers for TP? Why were the initial electrification plans drawn up on the basis that all that was needed was stringing up the wires when there seem to have been plenty of people around able to point out that this wouldn't deliver either the desired speeds or the desired capacity?

My impression was that this was another of those Government "we will electrify..." announcements? Always seemed to me that this project started up separate to the (then) Manchester Hub team, and that it is only since the Pause that the two projects have compared notes!
 

Olaf

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There has been no final decision made regarding the TP Electrification; there are however the proposals from TfL that will need to be considered to find the optimum, affordable, way forward.

In the meantime, there is a bigger problem with NR's ability to deliver which will be looked into through the summer and reported on around October/November time. That is pretty much what will determine what goes forward fro implementation.
 

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