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Vaccine Progress, Approval, and Deployment

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Bertie the bus

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I've noticed a few comments in recent news shows that Israel is finding that one dose of the Pfizer vaccine is less effective at preventing infection than Pfizer's suggestion of about 50%. I think the suggestion I heard was it may be a third less effective.

This is worrying as it would seem to suggest a slower reduction in hospital admissions and deaths than previously assumed.

If further data suggests the same it could mean the 12 week gap between doses may prove a bad decision and need to be reviewed.

Hope it's proved not to be the case as it's only the first batch of data from Israel. Israel has I believe signed up to lots of research and data sharing with Pfizer to get extra doses early so it will be interesting to keep an eye on what happens there.
Sky News seem to be really going into overdrive with the doom and gloom and scaremongering with this. For a start there are 2 different sets of data - one suggests a 33% reduction in infection and the other suggests a 60% reduction, but Sky are just screaming about the one which suggests 33%. Secondly, the findings suggest there is no difference in infection rates at all up to 14 days after vaccination and the 33% or 60% reductions are based on 14 - 21 days after vaccination. Therefore, it is incredibly unlikely that on day 13 you have no immunity and day 14 you have quite a bit and that is it, it is going to build up and increase gradually so even if the 33% reduction in infection is true at 14 days it could still be higher as time progresses.
 
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Philip

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There's a lot of uncertainty about the level of protection against infection/transmission the vaccine gives, how much the one dose gives, how they protect against certain variants etc. It's all still in the trial phase. The important matter is how well they prevent people becoming seriously ill, or to the point of needing hospital treatment. So far there doesn't seem to be anything doing the rounds about people still becoming seriously ill more than 3 weeks after having a vaccine dose, so for now that's encouraging.
 

Typhoon

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Some good news. There are schemes to take housebound to have a vaccination. BBC South East Today mentioned Castle Cars of Tonbridge.
For those who will find transport to their Covid19 vaccine difficult, please do consider supporting some of our local transport operators who can help you safely. In Tonbridge Castle Cars have set up 'Cabs for Jabs'. They are trying to raise funds for elderly and vulnerable people to travel to their appointment. All the details are here and I know your support is welcome - https://www.gofundme.com/f/cabs-for-jabs-tonbridge-area…
Taken from MP Tom Tugendhat's Facebook page. There seems to be a similar scheme in Hampshire https://www.hampshirechronicle.co.uk/news/19012249.cabs-jabs-winchester---free-taxi-rides-elderly/. This should pick up some of the 'left behinds'.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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There's a lot of uncertainty about the level of protection against infection/transmission the vaccine gives, how much the one dose gives, how they protect against certain variants etc. It's all still in the trial phase. The important matter is how well they prevent people becoming seriously ill, or to the point of needing hospital treatment. So far there doesn't seem to be anything doing the rounds about people still becoming seriously ill more than 3 weeks after having a vaccine dose, so for now that's encouraging.
Umm no wonder there backtracking on when lockdown can be relaxed as if they have to now double back for a second dose on Pfizer that will slow things down. Its also concerning that they continue to avoid providing any information on supplies of vaccine even forcing Scotland to withdraw the plan they had published so much for the transparency promised.
 

Islineclear3_1

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Oh dear...

Yes, I know its The Sun


A HUGE fire has broken out at the site of the world's largest Covid-19 vaccine manufactuer in India.

Smoke was seen billowing from Serum Institute in India in the western city of Pune today.

The country exported its first batch of Covishield vaccines on Wednesday
1
The country exported its first batch of Covishield vaccines on WednesdayCredit: AP:Associated Press
 

Crossover

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Oh dear...

Yes, I know its The Sun


A HUGE fire has broken out at the site of the world's largest Covid-19 vaccine manufactuer in India.

Smoke was seen billowing from Serum Institute in India in the western city of Pune today.

The country exported its first batch of Covishield vaccines on Wednesday
1
The country exported its first batch of Covishield vaccines on WednesdayCredit: AP:Associated Press

It looks like it is true, but India Today reports that vaccine manufacture is unaffected


The major fire that broke out at a building in the Serum Institute of India's Pune campus is now under control. Five workers were killed in the tragedy. Officials said production of Covid vaccine has not been affected by the fire.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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It looks like it is true, but India Today reports that vaccine manufacture is unaffected

Very sad for those impacted. OK i don't know the details but I do know that standards in many countries are so much lower than what West would expect that many lives get lost through these sort of incidents yet it doesn't attract the level of concern that Covid does.
 

Gadget88

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I know it’s wild speculation but we should know the answer by the end of 2021 right? By the time we vaccine the younger the older groups may require a “top up”. How will they determine when the top up is due? Does someone have to catch it first?

And we know everyone over 18 will be offered it right so my next question is will they have the resources to vaccine 65 million each year or will they just do the at risk groups? Assuming they do there would be no difference between unvaccinated running around a year vs a healthy person jabbed and immunity worn off.

I think the official line has been yearly jabs but they have stopped short of saying if everybody is included so perhaps someone here would be educated to maybe have a guess?

This one suggests only at risk groups getting it yearly
 

Typhoon

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This one suggests only at risk groups getting it yearly
I don't think anyone can say for sure until we have experience of its mutations and their effects, and the impact of the vaccine. There are already differences reported in the impact of various vaccines. Its a talk show, they have to fill air time with something.
 

takno

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I know it’s wild speculation but we should know the answer by the end of 2021 right? By the time we vaccine the younger the older groups may require a “top up”. How will they determine when the top up is due? Does someone have to catch it first?

And we know everyone over 18 will be offered it right so my next question is will they have the resources to vaccine 65 million each year or will they just do the at risk groups? Assuming they do there would be no difference between unvaccinated running around a year vs a healthy person jabbed and immunity worn off.

I think the official line has been yearly jabs but they have stopped short of saying if everybody is included so perhaps someone here would be educated to maybe have a guess?
The requirement for a top-up isn't like an on-off switch. The vaccine isn't 100% effective at any point. The proportion of people who become susceptible again over time, and the proportion of them who become seriously ill are not really known even in relation to the current strains. To know more about that we will really need to see quite a lot of people catch it again.

Current tests suggests that the proportion of people who are functionally immunity drops reasonably quickly, so if we needed to keep people at that level we'd probably need to do everybody every year. It's conceivable but highly unlikely that we might need to do every six months. If we just need to vastly reduce the number of people getting very sick, we may be able to just vaccinate the over 50s, and just every couple of years. The decisions there aren't really medical, they're about working out how many people are dying or getting sick, and whether that is too many.

The new strains are a confounding factor. It's possible that the new strains aren't sufficiently good at by-passing the vaccines to make much of a difference. It's also possible in a better-vaccinated world there would be far fewer significant strains developing in a year, and in fact they wouldn't be a significant factor in a long-term vaccination strategy. However it's also possible that the vaccine needs to be modified every year like the flu vaccine to keep it effective. Obviously if this turns out to be the case, then more people will need vaccinating more often

Even in the worst case, doing 100m vaccinations a year isn't beyond us as a nation, and is better and more affordable than pretty much any other intervention on the table.
 

yorkie

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I know it’s wild speculation but we should know the answer by the end of 2021 right? By the time we vaccine the younger the older groups may require a “top up”.
It's too early to say but the signs are encouraging

...researchers in Singapore analysed people who had SARS 17 years ago and demonstrated that they still have rip-roaring T cell responses to the virus. This suggests that T cell responses can be quite long-lasting...
 

brad465

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Looks like we've now got to 10% of the population with at least one vaccine dose, which will hopefully, in combination with those found to have antibodies/active immunity, start to act as a good buffer for future infection rates.
 

Wychwood93

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Looks like we've now got to 10% of the population with at least one vaccine dose, which will hopefully, in combination with those found to have antibodies/active immunity, start to act as a good buffer for future infection rates.
A touch picky, but 10% of the adult population - the over 18s. Good to hear in any case - over 400k today and, who knows, I would hope for around 500k/day in a week or so. An average of the latter would be excellent. Be positive!
 

yorkie

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A touch picky, but 10% of the adult population - the over 18s. Good to hear in any case - over 400k today and, who knows, I would hope for around 500k/day in a week or so. An average of the latter would be excellent. Be positive!
And bear in mind it'll take at least 2-3 weeks after vaccination for the immunity to kick in. But still good news, and immunity through both vaccinations plus natural infections is likely to be having a very noticeable effect by 15 February.
 

Philip

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Looks like we've now got to 10% of the population with at least one vaccine dose, which will hopefully, in combination with those found to have antibodies/active immunity, start to act as a good buffer for future infection rates.

In December the report said about 1 in 10 in the UK had antibodies, this will be at the lower end of the scale and you can add another million or more since this report came out; so probably between 12-15% of the UK have been infected at some point. On top of the total vaccinations we can't be too far off 25% of the population having either natural immunity or vaccine immunity.

Hopefully by the end of February we should have about 20,000,000 vaccinated so this will be 30%, and on top of natural immunity, we should be approaching half of the population having some form of immunity by then.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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In December the report said about 1 in 10 in the UK had antibodies, this will be at the lower end of the scale and you can add another million or more since this report came out; so probably between 12-15% of the UK have been infected at some point. On top of the total vaccinations we can't be too far off 25% of the population having either natural immunity or vaccine immunity.

Hopefully by the end of February we should have about 20,000,000 vaccinated so this will be 30%, and on top of natural immunity, we should be approaching half of the population having some form of immunity by then.
71% >80 year olds have now received 1st dose from BoJo briefing earlier so that should be showing up in hospital admissions being significantly down for this age group come early Feb if the vaccines are doing there job and then mortality from this group should reduce as well come later in Feb. BoJo kept the door ajar for relaxation come the Feb review but my take is hes showboating to keep the CRG at bay.
 

takno

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71% >80 year olds have now received 1st dose from BoJo briefing earlier so that should be showing up in hospital admissions being significantly down for this age group come early Feb if the vaccines are doing there job and then mortality from this group should reduce as well come later in Feb. BoJo kept the door ajar for relaxation come the Feb review but my take is hes showboating to keep the CRG at bay.
The trouble is that any fall in admissions from this age group will lead to hand-wringing stories about how the average age of a hospital admission is getting younger and younger, the disease must be mutating to attack younger people, and we need to work through even more of the priority groups before we can finally say the risk to the NHS is behind us.
 

HSTEd

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NERVTAG released their report on the deadliness of the new variant.
.There is a realistic possibility that VOC B.1.1.7 is associated with an increasedrisk of death compared to non-VOC viruses
PHIA probability yardstick – to be used when expressing likelihood or confidence
Realistic possibility = 40% to 50%

They assess a "realistic possibility" it has a higher mortality risk.
Which the front page of their report helpfully says is 40-50% chance of the statement being true.
 
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Nicholas Lewis

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The trouble is that any fall in admissions from this age group will lead to hand-wringing stories about how the average age of a hospital admission is getting younger and younger, the disease must be mutating to attack younger people, and we need to work through even more of the priority groups before we can finally say the risk to the NHS is behind us.
This is where CRG needs to hold Hancock and BoJo to account over justification of lockdown 3 was to buy some time to get cohorts 1-4 vaccinated as this was the risk area can't keep moving the goalposts
 

takno

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This is where CRG needs to hold Hancock and BoJo to account over justification of lockdown 3 was to buy some time to get cohorts 1-4 vaccinated as this was the risk area can't keep moving the goalposts
The goalposts are jumpers, and there's certainly no referee. Boris figured out a long time ago that if he shouts "goal!", enough people will believe him that he'll get away with it
 

johntea

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I had my first vaccine at 5pm today (I swear I didn’t time that deliberately just so I could avoid Boris and co waffling on!)

The whole process was very efficient although I had to download the NHS app last night and jump through the verification procedure to find out what my NHS number was (I got vaccinated in my workplace so not sure if the general public require that) as I don’t get many letters from the NHS or my GP!

Not quite sure why they make you hang around 15 minutes afterwards compared to the flu vaccine where you can just leave, I appreciate side effects but would have thought it would take the body longer than 15 minutes to show those anyway!

The system let me book the second in 11 weeks rather than 12 and an email that went round yesterday said roughly 69% of staff had been vaccinated so far (of a workplace roughly 5000 strong)

I got a appointment card but no ‘I’ve had my vaccine!’ sticker...and NHS budget cuts seem to mean even the complimentary Kit Kat’s are out of the window these days! :D
 
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My Mum had her vaccine yesterday and is 71. She lives in Cumbria on the coast North of Barrow. The call came on Tuesday so pretty swift. She had the Oxford one though the previous week people in town were getting the Pfizer one. She will go back in 12 weeks.
 

ainsworth74

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I appreciate side effects but would have thought it would take the body longer than 15 minutes to show those anyway!
As far as I'm aware so far any side effects that might require actual treatment (anaphylaxis I believe) do occur basically immediately after injection.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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SAGE have released a paper (its actually Gove that decides when its released) on impact of the vaccine on mortality rates depending on levels of penetration, how much transmission vs relaxation of NPI's. Summary

The impact of immunisation on the epidemic critically depends on the effect of the vaccine on the infectiousness of those who have been vaccinated. This is currently unknown.

It is very important to get extremely high vaccine coverage in the most vulnerable groups before non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are eased (or adherence to them drops) if we are to avoid a very high death toll

To reach herd immunity from vaccination, coverage of the adult population would need to be very high and vaccines would need to be highly efficacious against transmission

If vaccines are not highly effective against infection and transmission, then they will not directly lead to herd immunity on their own; further naturally-acquired immunity would be needed as well

Once the vaccine has been rolled out to the most vulnerable people, there will be scope for partial relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions(or lower adherence to them), but the extent of this scope is highly dependent upon the impact of vaccines on viral transmission

Vaccines will prevent more COVID-19 deaths if restrictions are maintained and well-adhered to until a late stage of the vaccine rollout, and if prevalence kept low until that point.

paper is six week olds and so one hopes they are now starting to test the models against reality.

The last statement tells you that scientists don't want teh restrictions relaxed anytime soon
 

birchesgreen

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As far as I'm aware so far any side effects that might require actual treatment (anaphylaxis I believe) do occur basically immediately after injection.

Indeed, most side-effects occur later. My mum and uncle both had a sore arm for about 24 hours after their Pfizer jabs.
 

LAX54

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The requirement for a top-up isn't like an on-off switch. The vaccine isn't 100% effective at any point. The proportion of people who become susceptible again over time, and the proportion of them who become seriously ill are not really known even in relation to the current strains. To know more about that we will really need to see quite a lot of people catch it again.

Current tests suggests that the proportion of people who are functionally immunity drops reasonably quickly, so if we needed to keep people at that level we'd probably need to do everybody every year. It's conceivable but highly unlikely that we might need to do every six months. If we just need to vastly reduce the number of people getting very sick, we may be able to just vaccinate the over 50s, and just every couple of years. The decisions there aren't really medical, they're about working out how many people are dying or getting sick, and whether that is too many.

The new strains are a confounding factor. It's possible that the new strains aren't sufficiently good at by-passing the vaccines to make much of a difference. It's also possible in a better-vaccinated world there would be far fewer significant strains developing in a year, and in fact they wouldn't be a significant factor in a long-term vaccination strategy. However it's also possible that the vaccine needs to be modified every year like the flu vaccine to keep it effective. Obviously if this turns out to be the case, then more people will need vaccinating more often

Even in the worst case, doing 100m vaccinations a year isn't beyond us as a nation, and is better and more affordable than pretty much any other intervention on the table.

An 'interesting' interview with one of the 'Naked Scientists' this morning, responding to a question sent in to 'Breakfast' about the vaccine,and it was said, it may not always stop you getting C19, but it will only be on a level with a common cold, and not life threatening, or needing hospital, and, it would not stop you passing it on of you had it.
 

hwl

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Indeed, most side-effects occur later. My mum and uncle both had a sore arm for about 24 hours after their Pfizer jabs.
That isn't really a side effect though, it is a direct intended effect of the of cells near the vaccination site being taken over and turned into spike protein factories...
Be worried if this doesn't happen.
 

birchesgreen

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That isn't really a side effect though, it is a direct intended effect of the of cells near the vaccination site being taken over and turned into spike protein factories...
Be worried if this doesn't happen.
Well thats good to know!
 

takno

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That isn't really a side effect though, it is a direct intended effect of the of cells near the vaccination site being taken over and turned into spike protein factories...
Be worried if this doesn't happen.
More uncomfortable places to receive a vaccination are available...
 

hwl

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An 'interesting' interview with one of the 'Naked Scientists' this morning, responding to a question sent in to 'Breakfast' about the vaccine,and it was said, it may not always stop you getting C19, but it will only be on a level with a common cold, and not life threatening, or needing hospital, and, it would not stop you passing it on of you had it.
That isn't news it has been well known for months.
Effectiveness at reducing deaths > Effectiveness at reducing ICU admissions ***> Effectiveness at reducing hospital admissions > Effectiveness at reducing symptomatic infections* > Effectiveness at reducing asymptomatic infections**

The later category is where transmission reduction effects are seen, where where there is no data yet. Israel is measuring the lot which is why everyone is looking at them but patience is needed.
People can be highly effective at transmitting covid in the 48 hours before they start to show symptoms hence the speed of certain parts of the immune response is very important for reducing transmissions. This is where the 484K mutations in SA an Brazil are worrying scientists as those bits of the immune system respond slower if previous exposure (natural or vaccine) has been to older variants.

*Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna phase 3 trial effectiveness measure
**Oxford / AZ phase 3 trial effectiveness measure
*** 100% reduction Oxford / AZ and Moderna phase 3 trials

As always caveats about trial sizes and small number of older people in the trials

Well thats good to know!
Muscle tissue is chosen as it easily regenerates, similar to recovering from a heavy weights session / slight muscle tear etc.
 
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