What Sage Really think.

[Richard Scott]

Err, you couldn’t be more wrong.
I’ve been very honest in saying that I’ve changed my mind on lockdowns. I don’t care one way or the other if people follow the rules, I’m too busy getting on with my own life as best I can.

I think you will find on these threads that it’s rather the opposite of what you claim. Anyone who doesn’t support ‘old lives don’t matter’ are the ones who are shouted down.

To be honest I don't think it's anything to do with 'old lives don't matter' but it's wanting a sensible approach. Allow those who want to shield and who have been medically advised to, to do so and let rest of us get on with life, keeping economy going and actually having this virus so it goes around the population and means those shielding should spend less time doing so. We're the ones prepared to take the risk as we see it as worth it.

 

[43096]

Err, you couldn’t be more wrong.
I’ve been very honest in saying that I’ve changed my mind on lockdowns.

Fair enough - happy to be corrected on that (and previous posting altered).

My general point around "locktivists" (and those taking the moral high ground) still stands.

 

[sjpowermac]

Fair enough - happy to be corrected on that.

My general point around "locktivists" (and those taking the moral high ground) still stands.

Apology accepted and appreciated

Just for a bit of background. I work in a school and without wishing to sound like a hero I volunteered for extra shifts even during the early part of the first lockdown. I’ve definitely not been at home hiding behind the sofa

I did broadly support masks, I’ve no idea at all if they work, but I hoped they would be a route to the railway dropping the ‘key workers only’ narrative. I genuinely don’t notice if people do or don’t follow the rules by wearing them, I largely keep myself to myself. I completely agree with you about those taking the moral high ground and anyone who claims that lockdowns don’t come at an enormous cost to society in terms of finance/mental health/education.

The point I was making is that I actually respect the original poster (and your post too for what it’s worth) for honesty.

Many thanks again for your reply, it is genuinely appreciated

 

[duncanp]

And here is today's SAGE scare story, just when you were wondering where it had got to.

(Courtesy of the Daily Mail)

So we have only just entered tier 4 (well most of us, anyway) and now SAGE are saying that even tier FIVE will not be enough.

Why don't they all shut the **** up?

They don't know whether the current tier 4 measures will work any more than anyone else.

Only time will tell that, and you need to wait until the end of January before you decide what to do next.

Even a March-style national lockdown with schools mainly closed might not be enough to hold the coronavirus R rate below one, government scientists have warned.

A grim assessment from SAGE says the new variant appears so much more contagious that the brutal blanket restrictions imposed in November would be 'highly unlikely' to contain the spread.

Closing schools to all but the children of key workers and the vulnerable, as happened in the Spring, could bring the crucial reproduction rate down further but it is still 'not known' whether it would succeed in suppressing the outbreak.

The dire picture was revealed as the government published minutes from a meeting of the top scientists on December 22, shortly after Boris Johnson announced the existence of the Covid mutation and tore up plans for Christmas 'bubbles'.

It will fuel fears that the country is now doomed to brutal Tier curbs until at least the Spring - and even that would be assuming that vaccines can be rolled out widely enough by then to allow the squeeze to end.

Speculation is mounting that schools will need to face even more draconian restrictions, despite the threat of damage to a generation of children - and the advice will also raise questions about why ministers waited another week before changing their approach yesterday.

Education Secretary Gavin Willliamson today refused to apologise to furious parents after a dramatic U-turn that means around a million children at primaries in Covid 'hotspots' in London, Essex, Hertfordshire, Buckinghamshire, East Sussex and Kent will stay at home when term begins on January 4.

Amid signs of a bitter row in Cabinet, Mr Williamson said the government was having to move at 'incredible pace' due to the mutant strain of coronavirus.

But the decisions over what areas are classified as high-risk were branded 'illogical', with primaries in neighbouring streets getting starkly different orders and little clarity over the criteria being used to set the rules. London councils are calling for all classes to be cancelled.

Secondaries also face an anxious wait to find out whether they will be able to reopen fully on the new target date of January 18.

The Department for Education is racing to put a mass testing system in place, but has warned the curbs could need to be even wider than for primaries as older children are more likely to spread the disease. The situation is not expected to become clear until the next review date of January 13.

The minutes of the SAGE meeting from December 22 offer little optimism that the situation can be resolved without further curbs.

'It is highly unlikely that measures with stringency and adherence in line with the measures in England in November (i.e. with schools open) would be sufficient to maintain R below 1 in the presence of the new variant,' the scientists said.

'R would be lower with schools closed, with closure of secondary schools likely to have a greater effect than closure of primary schools. It remains difficult to distinguish where transmission between children takes place, and it is important to consider contacts made outside of schools.'

The minutes added: 'It is not known whether measures with similar stringency and adherence as Spring, with both primary and secondary schools closed, would be sufficient to bring R below 1 in the presence of the new variant.'

The experts said the Tier 4 measures in England, combined with the school holidays would be 'informative' about how strong measures need to be to control the new variant - but 'analysis of this will not be possible until mid-January'.

They also highlighted the threat of universities returning in the New Year - with Mr Williamson having now announced tougher restrictions on face-to-face teaching.

 

[21C101]

---

A Despairing Doctor Writes:

Full article here. Extracts below:

What is left to say?

30th December 2020 I have not written much about COVID19 recently. What can be said? In my opinion the world has simply gone bonkers. The best description can be found in Dante’s Inferno, written m…

drmalcolmkendrick.org

"I even got attacked by factcheckers, the self-appointed know-it-alls who are, it seems, capable of judging on all matters of scientific dispute. Truly, the Gods have descended to live amongst us. Those who can determine what is true, and what is not. No need for any further clinical trials, or any more scientific studies of any sort, ever. We just need to ask the Fact Checkers for the answer, to any given question.

Anyway, it appeared that tens of thousands died in some countries, almost none in others. What I was waiting to see, was the impact on the one outcome that you cannot alter, or fudge. The outcome that is overall mortality i.e. the chances of dying, of anything......

"There are so many cases where – even if the COVID19 test was accurate – COVID19 would have had nothing whatsoever to do with the death. Another thing known, or at least we probably know, is that the vast majority of people who die had many other things wrong with them...

"So, again, what have I learned about COVID19? I learned that all Governments are floundering about, all claiming to have exerted some sort of control over this disease and ignoring all evidence to the contrary. In truth, they have achieved nothing. As restrictions and lockdowns have become more severe, in many cases the number of infections has simply risen and risen, completely unaffected by anything that has been done.

The official solution is, of course, more restrictions. ‘We just haven’t restricted people enough!’ Sigh. When something doesn’t work, the answer is not to keep doing it with even greater fervour. The real answer is to stop doing it and try something else instead.

I have also learned that, in most countries, COVID19 appears to be seasonal. It went away – everywhere – in the summer. It came back in the autumn/winter, as various viruses do.

On its return is has been, generally, far less deadly. Much you would expect. The most vulnerable died on first exposure, and far fewer people had any resistance to it, at all. Now, a number of people do have some immunity, and may of the vulnerable are already dead.

Which means that, in this so-called second wave COVID19 is of no greater an issue than a moderately bad flu season.

If I were to recommend actions. I would recommend that we stop testing – unless someone is admitted to hospital and is seriously ill. Mass testing is simply causing mass panic and achieves absolutely nothing. At great cost. We should also just get on with our lives as before. We should just vaccinate those at greatest risk of dying, the elderly and vulnerable, and put this rather embarrassing episode of mad banner waving behind us.

Hopefully, in time, we will learn something. Which is that we should not, ever, run about panicking, following the madly waved banners… ever again. However, I suspect that we will. This pandemic is going to be a model for all mass panicking stupidity in the future. Because to do otherwise, would be to admit that we made a pig’s ear of it this time. Far too many powerful reputations at stake to allow that."

 

[Bikeman78]

Let's be honest, the whole premise of the last 9 months has been to extend the life of vulnerable people (mostly older) at the expense of the young, and in particular their education, mental health, employment prospects and future prosperity (we'll be paying the £0.3 trillion borrowing back for decades). As an "investment" it is utterly nuts, as a way of treating that generation it is immoral.

Yet there are plenty who are wedded to this lockdown is the only route. Debate is shut down. Those who disagree are shouted down, belittled and bullied. There is a thoroughly nasty streak visible from people getting on their moral high horse and lecturing others about not following the "rules". I'll bet those superior beings aren't entirely following the rules themselves - exhibit A being "Shagger" Ferguson himself.

The whole messaging around the pandemic has been shocking. It is purely negative - don't do this, don't do that. Unsurprisingly people don't take too well to that, particularly when those doing the messaging ignore their own rules. How much better would it have been if it was "We really need your help...".

There are people out there who claim they haven't left their house since March. Some have children so I guess they haven't been to school for nine months? I'm not sure I believe them but even if I did, how do these people think the world would work if everyone did the same? No gas, water, electricity, no internet, no one to deliver their food to their homes. No hospitals.

 

[WessexEclectic]

---

A Despairing Doctor Writes:

"Mass testing is simply causing mass panic..."

Is this a bug or a feature?....

Thanks to those who are keeping these discussions civil - a rare thing on t'internet.

 

[bramling]

---

A Despairing Doctor Writes:

Full article here. Extracts below:

What is left to say?

30th December 2020 I have not written much about COVID19 recently. What can be said? In my opinion the world has simply gone bonkers. The best description can be found in Dante’s Inferno, written m…

drmalcolmkendrick.org

Perhaps the bit which strikes the most is where he says that will will do the same for future pandemics, because to not do the same will mean admitting things were got wrong this time. That's worrying, as I foresee exactly that. Indeed I get the feeling that a lot of our response right now is the result of having gone so far down a policy blind alley and being unable to dial back.

 

[21C101]

Perhaps the big which strikes the most is where he says that will will do the same for future pandemics, because to do the same will mean admitting things were got wrong this time. That's worrying, as I foresee exactly that. Indeed I get the feeling that a lot of our response right now is the result of having gone so far down a policy blind alley and being unable to dial back.

Indeed. The precedent this sets is perhaps the most dangerous thing of all because of how it will influence future behaviour.

My greatest fear is that, as with anything else to do with health and safety, the ratchet will slowly tighten and this will end up being done every time there is a bad flu year.

Who in their right mind would risk their savings and house to start a small to medium size business, with the credible possibility that these bureaucrats can stop you trading for weeks on end at any time without notice.

It is the road to what happened to Russia in 1991, when the state went bust and pensions, welfare payments and free health care largely vanished overnight.

 

[david1212]

There are people out there who claim they haven't left their house since March. Some have children so I guess they haven't been to school for nine months? I'm not sure I believe them but even if I did, how do these people think the world would work if everyone did the same? No gas, water, electricity, no internet, no one to deliver their food to their homes. No hospitals.

Exactly.

As to all who in some way are the public voice of SAGE and Independent SAGE I'll wager virtually all are in positions ( I'm specifically not saying jobs ) that are long term secure and either come with a good package of pension etc or their income is such that they can comfortably fund these themselves.

There are many businesses that now will be struggling for years to come. Just one example are those that in some way are fundamentally dependant on aerospace development. Orders from airlines to Boeing, Airbus etc are going to be reduced hence so will development budgets. Defence spending is inevitably going to get deferred too. If any business locksdown as SAGE would like others will fill their place with the prospect of no way back.

 

[21C101]

Peter Hitchens has seen to it that Fergusons comments will reach a wide audience.

He has played a unique role among UK journalists during this, politely and eruditely dissenting, backing his arguments with sources and avoiding the crazy conspiracies and their proponents who play into the governments hands.

PETER HITCHENS: Guess where Professor Lockdown got his ideas ... China’s police state - Mail Online - Peter Hitchens blog

PETER HITCHENS: Guess where Professor Lockdown got his ideas ... China’s police state

hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk

 

[Hawkwood Junc]

Ferguson comes across as someone who has an incredibly high opinion of himself. Not only that, he seems to enjoy the control element of this situation and has a one track mind in terms of restrictions and how this impacts anything wider. Not only that, he appears to love the publicity, and the media are only too happy to give it to him.

 

[Skimpot flyer]

I disagree, they should emigrate to North Korea to enjoy the authoritarianism

I have a friend in North Korea. He says government controlling every aspect of a citizen’s life, arrests for protesting, no right to travel abroad, a crazy leader, no opposition, government corruption and state-controlled media is terrible. He sends his sympathies to all in UK

 

[SouthEastBuses]

I have no respect for Prof Ferguson; he is a failure and he is disgraced (more so than Cummings I would argue; he really ought to have have been given at least the same amount of flak)

Also, while they thought they could get away with it, and to some extent they did, there are some flaws:

Firstly, although authoritarians in this country are very vocal in their support for lockdowns, they are a minority.

Most people would accept a lockdown if they knew it would be short and effective; people were mislead to believe this and therefore there was mass support at the start. But not now that the truth is known.

We did not lockdown in the way China did and we could never have done so; people who had symptoms that indicated they might have had the virus were forcibly removed from their homes and placed in huge halls. People could not leave their house for any reason. Food had to be delivered. No exercise, and so on.

The original D614 strain which caused the epidemic in Wuhan was less transmissible than the G614 strain which became dominant in Europe. Many reports claimed the D614 strain, which is the strain that drove the high rate of infections in Italy, was up to 10 times more transmissible than the original strain.

This report includes a graph showing how the G614 strain came to dominate:

Tracking Changes in SARS-CoV-2 Spike: Evidence that D614G Increases Infectivity of the COVID-19 Virus

A SARS-CoV-2 variant carrying the Spike protein amino acid change D614G has become the most prevalent form in the global pandemic. Dynamic tracking of…

www.sciencedirect.com

View attachment 87897


So, at the time European countries were imposing lockdowns, they were never going to work because:

• the lockdowns could never be anywhere near as strict as the Wuhan lockdown; and
• the new strain was far more transmissible and could not so easily be eliminated by lockdowns.

Someone at my workplace still goes round telling people that if we locked down long enough and hard enough we would have eliminated it; apart from a hard lockdown being impossible in the UK, this ignores the fact that European countries had a very different strain to deal with compared to the original strain from Wuhan. But pro-lockdown authoritarians do not want to do this level of research as it does not suit their authoritarian agenda.

I wish Prof Ferguson and all pro-lockdown authoritarians would emigrate to China, or South Koera, where they can indulge in authoritarianism and leave the rest of us in peace.

Excellent post, and I fully agree with you with what you said.

Also, everyone: I recommend this amazing website Lockdown Scepitcs (www.lockdownsceptics.org) , which is made of proper scientists who you can trust (like Mike Yeadon) and not those at Sage.

 

[Bertie the bus]

Any website that has sceptics in its name might be amazing but not for the reasons you think. As for Mike Yeadon, I see he was a VP at Pfizer. Does anybody know what a VP at Pfizer is because I used to work for a large US company and VP was not what the vast majority of British people would assume. A VP was a middle manager. The hierarchy was - nothing, Associate, VP, Senior VP, MD and that was in each area of the company. There were literally hundreds of VPs in the company as a whole.

 

[SouthEastBuses]

Any website that has sceptics in its name might be amazing but not for the reasons you think. As for Mike Yeadon, I see he was a VP at Pfizer. Does anybody know what a VP at Pfizer is because I used to work for a large US company and VP was not what the vast majority of British people would assume. A VP was a middle manager. The hierarchy was - nothing, Associate, VP, Senior VP, MD and that was in each area of the company. There were literally hundreds of VPs in the company as a whole.

Mike Yeadon said that Ferguson's model was completely wrong and that not much people will die in the second wave. He has been correct so far, as the graph predicted something like 2000 to 4000 deaths a day, whilst we've normally only had around 600, even less!

 

[kristiang85]

Mike Yeadon said that Ferguson's model was completely wrong and that not much people will die in the second wave. He has been correct so far, as the graph predicted something like 2000 to 4000 deaths a day, whilst we've normally only had around 600, even less!

Also Ferguson's model was based on people actually contracting COVID and dying from it.

The real numbers are positive tests before death, so likely to be less than stated.

The 2000-4000 figure was insane though.

 

[Yew]

Excellent post, and I fully agree with you with what you said.

Also, everyone: I recommend this amazing website Lockdown Scepitcs (www.lockdownsceptics.org) , which is made of proper scientists who you can trust (like Mike Yeadon) and not those at Sage.

Mike is a bit much, but there are some reasonable articles on there.

 

[brad465]

In the latest of random Twitter trends, #SackWhitty is currently going around. However being Twitter it's actually more dominated by users attacking the fact it's trending rather than demanding what is stated in the hashtag, where they often follow it up with saying it should be Johnson being sacked. Of course in an ideal world it would be both of them leaving.

 

[swissrailpassion]

The Dr Shipman school of medicine seems to have a worrying number of adherents.

 

[takno]

The Dr Shipman school of medicine seems to have a worrying number of adherents.

Shipman killed a lot of people, on purpose, many of whom weren't particularly ill. That approach may and may not have a lot of adherents but none of them appear to be on this thread.

 

[DustyBin]

Shipman killed a lot of people, on purpose, many of whom weren't particularly ill. That approach may and may not have a lot of adherents but none of them appear to be on this thread.

I thought that was a bizarre analogy as well! There are a few of us on here that believe the old and vulnerable should be shielding and supported in doing so in order to keep them safe while the rest of us keep the economy going. I’ve not seen anybody advocating murdering and stealing from them though....

 

[Yew]

I thought that was a bizarre analogy as well! There are a few of us on here that believe the old and vulnerable should be shielding and supported in doing so in order to keep them safe while the rest of us keep the economy going. I’ve not seen anybody advocating murdering and stealing from them though....

Surely in terms of actions that cause intentional and avoidable death, the Shipman approach would be to lockdown and lead otherwise healthy people to suicide?

 

[swissrailpassion]

The reason we lockdown is that we do not have a health service that can support any other option.

 

[farleigh]

The reason we lockdown is that we do not have a health service that can support any other option.

Aaah so1/3 trillion on lockdown spending might have been better spent on building completely new hospitals and calling them something like Bluebirds.

Oh wait.....

 

[Richard Scott]

The reason we lockdown is that we do not have a health service that can support any other option.

Doesn't seem to make any difference though.

 

[Yew]

Doesn't seem to make any difference though.

Indeed, has there been any case where an entire health service of a nation has been overwhelmed?

 

[swissrailpassion]

Indeed, has there been any case where an entire health service of a nation has been overwhelmed?

The virus is a living thing and changing. The spread now is far worse and the lockdown in November was too late and not extensive enough as schools and universities were open. This has allowed the virus to establish itself more widely and the relaxation on December 2 allowed it once more to spread.
Since then a more virulent strain has made things worse.

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

Since then a more virulent strain has made things worse.

The "virulent strain" has been in circulation since September.

 

[Richard Scott]

The virus is a living thing and changing. The spread now is far worse and the lockdown in November was too late and not extensive enough as schools and universities were open. This has allowed the virus to establish itself more widely and the relaxation on December 2 allowed it once more to spread.
Since then a more virulent strain has made things worse.

No it isn't, viruses are definitely not living organisms by definition. They also mutate all the time, this is nothing new. No evidence it's become more dangerous just more contagious, admittedly could argue by default this does make it more dangerous but for any one person the risk of death is no higher from infection.