What Sage Really think.

[87electric]

That's right. Viruses are not living organisms. Bacteria is a living organism. People need to understand the basics.

 

[swissrailpassion]

I know viruses are not technically living organisms but they are dynamic, they reproduce and evolve.

 

[Kite159]

Aaah so1/3 trillion on lockdown spending might have been better spent on building completely new hospitals and calling them something like Bluebirds.

Oh wait.....

Building hospitals is one thing, getting the staff in to run said new hospital is probably harder.

 

[AshBod]

That's right. Viruses are not living organisms. Bacteria is a living organism. People need to understand the basics.

Although science cannot agree on whether viruses are actually alive or not so its not as simple as a 'basic' understanding of fact.

Are viruses alive?

Viruses seem to be more than more than just simple, inert bundles of genetic material – but do they count as living organisms?

www.newscientist.com

Are viruses alive? | Ask A Biologist

[caption caption="Viruses reproduce by inserting genetic material into a host cell. Image by NIAID." align="right"][/caption]Scientists are not sure whether viruses are living or non-living. In general, scientists use a list of criteria to determine if something is alive. Let’s look at some...

askabiologist.asu.edu

 

[Bantamzen]

The virus is a living thing and changing. The spread now is far worse and the lockdown in November was too late and not extensive enough as schools and universities were open. This has allowed the virus to establish itself more widely and the relaxation on December 2 allowed it once more to spread.
Since then a more virulent strain has made things worse.

The new variant has been around since at least September, but probably much earlier. And here's a theory for you, it is possible that the first lockdown which slowed the previous variant gave the new one a foothold which it might not have had otherwise if the previous one had continued to spread. It happens all the time in nature, when one genetic line is suppressed new ones able to take advantage do so.

 

[Bikeman78]

The new variant has been around since at least September, but probably much earlier. And here's a theory for you, it is possible that the first lockdown which slowed the previous variant gave the new one a foothold which it might not have had otherwise if the previous one had continued to spread. It happens all the time in nature, when one genetic line is suppressed new ones able to take advantage do so.

The obsessive use of hand sanitiser is likely brewing another problem. It's noticable that there are fewer coughs and colds going around; my kids have only had one since March. Sooner or later one will turn up which is resistant to hand gels etc. and then half the country will get it.

 

[DustyBin]

The obsessive use of hand sanitiser is likely brewing another problem. It's noticable that there are fewer coughs and colds going around; my kids have only had one since March. Sooner or later one will turn up which is resistant to hand gels etc. and then half the country will get it.

I don’t think we’ll see alcohol resistant ‘germs’ due to the mechanism by which it destroys them (i.e. it physically breaks them down). We’re certainly running the risk of weakening our own immune systems though.

 

[Bantamzen]

The obsessive use of hand sanitiser is likely brewing another problem. It's noticable that there are fewer coughs and colds going around; my kids have only had one since March. Sooner or later one will turn up which is resistant to hand gels etc. and then half the country will get it.

And no doubt someone will call for a series of lockdowns and compulsory daily sheep dips for the population. Just as an aside I have had a series of colds all winter thus far, and I've barely been anywhere, worn face coverings, used sanitisers. So maybe I am patient zero of the new, improved cold causing virus....

 

[Bikeman78]

And no doubt someone will call for a series of lockdowns and compulsory daily sheep dips for the population. Just as an aside I have had a series of colds all winter thus far, and I've barely been anywhere, worn face coverings, used sanitisers. So maybe I am patient zero of the new, improved cold causing virus....

This just proves there is no logic to this at all. I've been out on trains all over the country whenever restrictions permit it, never used hand sanitiser and not had so much as a sneeze!

 

[Richard Scott]

This just proves there is no logic to this at all. I've been out on trains all over the country whenever restrictions permit it, never used hand sanitiser and not had so much as a sneeze!

Probably have a very good immune system through exposure to other pathogens. I'm the same, get occasional sore throat but that seems to coincide with times I have to wear a mask frequently.

 

[MikeWM]

I don’t think we’ll see alcohol resistant ‘germs’ due to the mechanism by which it destroys them (i.e. it physically breaks them down). We’re certainly running the risk of weakening our own immune systems though.

Sadly that doesn't appear to be the case; see here for example

https://stm.sciencemag.org/content/10/452/eaar6115

Increasing tolerance of hospital Enterococcus faecium to handwash alcohols​

Alcohol-based disinfectants are a key way to control hospital infections worldwide. Pidot et al. now show that the multidrug-resistant bacterium Enterococcus faecium has become increasingly tolerant to the alcohols in widely used hospital disinfectants such as hand rub solutions. These findings may help explain the recent increase in this pathogen in hospital settings. A global response to E. faecium will need to include consideration of its adaptive responses not only to antibiotics but also to alcohols and the other active agents in disinfectant solutions that have become so critical for effective infection control.

Personally I'm far more concerned about the long-term health implications of antimicrobial resistance than I am about the long-term effects of Covid and similar.

 

[DustyBin]

Sadly that doesn't appear to be the case; see here for example

https://stm.sciencemag.org/content/10/452/eaar6115

Increasing tolerance of hospital Enterococcus faecium to handwash alcohols​

Personally I'm far more concerned about the long-term health implications of antimicrobial resistance than I am about the long-term effects of Covid and similar.

Every day's a learning day as they say, thanks! We may need to go back to good old hydrogen peroxide, surely they can't develop resistance to that....

I totally agree with the point you make, we need to be careful.

 

[21C101]

There is no correlation in effect of spreading the virus between lockdown/no lockdown an no correlation with fierceness of lockdown either.

The only thing that seems to have worked is sealing of borders and quarantining incomers in islands which are not densely poplated and where it didn't get a major foothold.

Even that though is starting to break down with new outbreaks in Australia and even an antarctic research station.

The biggest flaw in lockdown theory is that it is almost universally spread in person to person close contact.

If the thing is able to stay alive on organic material like chilled or frozen food or even paper then lockdown is futile. We already know that viruses can persist for hours or even days on chilled or frozen inorganic surfaces (which makes the current constantly near freezing weather disastrous).

 

[TheBeard]

I think we may be in store for adverts in the future, something like
"Were you harmed by Lockdown and SAGE?
Are you unable to leave the house due to fear of Covid25? Did you suffer anxiety or depression? Did a medical condition worsen due to the Annual Winter Lockdown? Was your business irreparably damaged? Did you lose your job/marriage/socialising/kids education?" and so on. The future is now, and needs curtailing. Let's get those vulnerable vaccinated, and start getting back to normal.

 

[DB]

There is no correlation in effect of spreading the virus between lockdown/no lockdown an no correlation with fierceness of lockdown either.

Indeed, and not just in this country either. Plus the same applies to masks, and the majority of (possibly all) other restrictions.

Take an infections/deaths graph for most countries and ask anyone to pinpoint whether lockdowns and mask mandates occurred, and if so to mark them on the graph. It's highly unlikely that they will be able to.

There is a fairly compelling view of thought that most countries (unless they supress it early, close borders and jump on all cases) will at some point have a noticeable spike in deaths, and once that's dropped back down again it's back to a graph which is very similar indeed to that for a bad flu year.

 

[Kite159]

Maybe we should relocate some of those Sage scientists who are all for a heavy lockdown into a small flat in a high rise tower block to see how they will like it being told to stay at home if they haven't got large gardens or home offices.

Assuming they live in those larger houses with private gardens so they can get fresh air without coming into contact with anybody etc.

 

[kristiang85]

I think we may be in store for adverts in the future, something like
"Were you harmed by Lockdown and SAGE?
Are you unable to leave the house due to fear of Covid25? Did you suffer anxiety or depression? Did a medical condition worsen due to the Annual Winter Lockdown? Was your business irreparably damaged? Did you lose your job/marriage/socialising/kids education?" and so on. The future is now, and needs curtailing. Let's get those vulnerable vaccinated, and start getting back to normal.

It's already happening

Welcome | PCR Claims.co.uk

pcrclaims.co.uk

 

[bramling]

I think we may be in store for adverts in the future, something like
"Were you harmed by Lockdown and SAGE?
Are you unable to leave the house due to fear of Covid25? Did you suffer anxiety or depression? Did a medical condition worsen due to the Annual Winter Lockdown? Was your business irreparably damaged? Did you lose your job/marriage/socialising/kids education?" and so on. The future is now, and needs curtailing. Let's get those vulnerable vaccinated, and start getting back to normal.

Inevitable I’d say. PPI will be nothing by comparison!

 

[londiscape]

It's already happening

Welcome | PCR Claims.co.uk

pcrclaims.co.uk

From lockdownsceptics.org - part of this is picking up where Simon Dolan was forced to leave off after the Supreme Court refused to hear him.

Not entirely sure how I feel about PCR Claims, on one hand I resent the fact that if they get anywhere the only ones paying for it will be taxpayers, on top of Boris's mates squirrelling billions of pounds on dodgy PPE contracts. But on the other hand, everything their website seems to stand for is right, and those who have been ruined physically, mentally, economically and socially (or any combinations thereof) through no fault of their own, do deserve restitution.

Personally I'd start by sequestering all cash, real estate and valuable assets owned by members of SAGE, leave them to live on £75 a week or whatever JSA is these days, and use that as compensation for lockdown victims. And as for Ferguson, I'd give him the option of emigrating to China with no right of return, or life incarceration for what is morally equivalent to treason.

 

[Ian Cunningham]

Personally I'd start by sequestering all cash, real estate and valuable assets owned by members of SAGE, leave them to live on £75 a week or whatever JSA is these days, and use that as compensation for lockdown victims. And as for Ferguson, I'd give him the option of emigrating to China with no right of return, or life incarceration for what is morally equivalent to treason.

The problem with an action like that would be the complete and permanent loss of all expert advisors to government. No scientists, epidemiologists, virologists, economists, medics, nothing, all gone- nobody would touch it with a bargepole

 

[21C101]

The problem with an action like that would be the complete and permanent loss of all expert advisors to government. No scientists, epidemiologists, virologists, economists, medics, nothing, all gone- nobody would touch it with a bargepole

The bigger problem is that if these so called experts are insulated from the consequences of their actions they will keep doing this every time we have a bad flu or other winter virus season with the threshold getting lower and lower as the ratchet tightens.

If people don't start small businesses, the main driver of the economy, we will as a nation face ruin and poverty and be unable to pay for pensions, welfare, schools and health.

Who in their right mind would now risk their savings and put their house up as collateral to start a business, given that we now know that the government could at any time issue a dictact which would either close the business down or drive away customers for months on end?

It's already happening

Welcome | PCR Claims.co.uk

pcrclaims.co.uk

My views on outfits like that are unprintable.

Suffice to say the sooner contingency fees (no win no fee) and advertisement of legal services are outlawed (as was the case until the 1980s) the better.

Any benefits in widening access to justice are grossly outweighed by the destructive effect on society they have.

This, not health and safety law, is what causes the extreme risk aversion that makes the headlines as "health and safety gone mad" as insurers, having to spend a fortune defend themselves from large numbers of claims of little merit (which cost the claimants little or nothing to persue, even if they lose); settle said claims and pay out, as it is cheaper than defending them. Consequently they hike their prices hugely to recover the money and impose increasingly draconian clauses on businesses cover (compliance of which increase the osts substantially and impose ever greater restrictions on the public) in a vain effort to stem the tide of such claims.

We pay for this in higher taxes and purchase costs. Thatcher was warned by the top legal experts of the time that this would be the consequence, but pressed on anyway.

 

[DustyBin]

The problem with an action like that would be the complete and permanent loss of all expert advisors to government. No scientists, epidemiologists, virologists, economists, medics, nothing, all gone- nobody would touch it with a bargepole

The bigger problem is that if these so called experts are insulated from the consequences of their actions they will keep doing this every time we have a bad flu or other winter virus season with the threshold getting lower and lower as the ratchet tightens.

If people don't start small businesses, the main driver of the economy, we will as a nation face ruin and poverty and be unable to pay for pensions, welfare, schools and health.

Who in their right mind would now risk their savings and put their house up as collateral to start a business, given that we now know that the government could at any time issue a dictact which would either close the business down or drive away customers for months on end?

You both make very good points. We need experts without a doubt. They do however need to be accountable. People like Ferguson certainly have no place on SAGE.

 

[21C101]

You both make very good points. We need experts without a doubt. They do however need to be accountable. People like Ferguson certainly have no place on SAGE.

Until Blair changed the rules, councillors making poor decisions could be surcharged. The bar was set high, but it did occur and councillors who fell foul of it had their homes reposessed.

This never resulted in a lack of candidates standing for councils.

Similarly the onerous restrictions financial advisors operate under, with huge penalties for mis-advising, dosen't seem to have caused a lack of financial advisors.

While the threshold needs to be set high, there needs to be a mechanism where those who give damaging advice are hit in the pocket.

Perhaps a professional council as with doctors with the power to fine, disbar and disgrace such advisors.

 

[DustyBin]

Perhaps a professional council as with doctors with the power to fine, disbar and disgrace such advisors.

I would have thought most of SAGE would be members of a professional body? As a member of a (non medical) professional body myself, this is what I don’t understand. If I were found to have acted with such negligence or sheer incompetence, or had serious conflicts of interest (a la Vallance, and simply disclosing it isn’t enough) I’d face disciplinary action. These guys are a law unto themselves apparently!

 

[david1212]

I would like to arrange a swap between the leaders of both SAGE and independent SAGE and a cross-section of the population for a month. Examples are those on furlough so reduced income, those whose employed job is under threat due to lack of orders to the business, company directors and managers plus self-employed trying to keep their business viable, those trying to run hospitality just as a take-away, those juggling child care let alone home schooling with either working from home or still going to work. Afterwards overall would they then present a more balanced approach ?

 

[notlob.divad]

You both make very good points. We need experts without a doubt. They do however need to be accountable.

I would like to arrange a swap between the leaders of both SAGE and independent SAGE and a cross-section of the population for a month. Examples are those on furlough so reduced income, those whose employed job is under threat due to lack of orders to the business, company directors and managers plus self-employed trying to keep their business viable, those trying to run hospitality just as a take-away, those juggling child care let alone home schooling with either working from home or still going to work. Afterwards overall would they then present a more balanced approach ?

Advisors advise, ministers decide. You are falling hook line and sinker for the trap the politicians have set you. The problem is not the advisors being accountable or not. The problem is the government ministers in the cabinet (particularly the PM) who have tied themselves to letter of what one particular set of advisors are saying in an attempt to shield themselves from accountability. It is not the job of advisors to present a balanced approach. It is the job of ministers to provide advise in their specific area of expertise. It is then up to the politicians to weigh this advise against similarly unbalanced advice from other advisors about other aspects of government and society. Then crucially make the decisions no pass the buck at every opportunity.

David1212's suggestion of and cross-section of the population advising the government is not a terrible idea. It is the basis of the idea of a citizen's assembly, and ould be certainly more accountable than the 'think tanks' and 'focus groups' that politicians so love. But I would argue it should very much be in addition to the specific expert advice from SAGE not instead of it.

 

[21C101]

Advisors advise, ministers decide. You are falling hook line and sinker for the trap the politicians have set you. The problem is not the advisors being accountable or not. The problem is the government ministers in the cabinet (particularly the PM) who have tied themselves to letter of what one particular set of advisors are saying in an attempt to shield themselves from accountability. It is not the job of advisors to present a balanced approach. It is the job of ministers to provide advise in their specific area of expertise. It is then up to the politicians to weigh this advise against similarly unbalanced advice from other advisors about other aspects of government and society. Then crucially make the decisions no pass the buck at every opportunity.

David1212's suggestion of and cross-section of the population advising the government is not a terrible idea. It is the basis of the idea of a citizen's assembly, and ould be certainly more accountable than the 'think tanks' and 'focus groups' that politicians so love. But I would argue it should very much be in addition to the specific expert advice from SAGE not instead of it.

If I was in Johnnsons place, much as I would hate myself for doing it I would probably have done the same as him.

With nearby European countries like France doing it, the opposition shroud waving in full "if it saves one life whatever the cost mode, the newspapers hysterial and the TV news constantly broadcasting doom from hospitals, no PM who didn't do it would last in office and would probably be replaced with an authoritarian who would impose curfews.

Sweden have a sober media and don't have a cynical opposition who exploit the issue for political gain.

 

[DustyBin]

Advisors advise, ministers decide. You are falling hook line and sinker for the trap the politicians have set you. The problem is not the advisors being accountable or not. The problem is the government ministers in the cabinet (particularly the PM) who have tied themselves to letter of what one particular set of advisors are saying in an attempt to shield themselves from accountability. It is not the job of advisors to present a balanced approach. It is the job of ministers to provide advise in their specific area of expertise. It is then up to the politicians to weigh this advise against similarly unbalanced advice from other advisors about other aspects of government and society. Then crucially make the decisions no pass the buck at every opportunity.

David1212's suggestion of and cross-section of the population advising the government is not a terrible idea. It is the basis of the idea of a citizen's assembly, and ould be certainly more accountable than the 'think tanks' and 'focus groups' that politicians so love. But I would argue it should very much be in addition to the specific expert advice from SAGE not instead of it.

Not at all, I’m fully aware of what Johnson et al are doing, or will try to do. They’re ultimately to blame as they make the decisions. That doesn’t however alter the fact that they have received terrible advice. Ferguson is incompetent at best. It’s unbelievable that a person in his position can make such catastrophic miscalculations with impunity. This isn’t the first time either. Then there’s Michie for example, who’s motives I genuinely question. These people need to be held to account in the way that other professional people are. As I said in post #84, my regulating body would come down on me like a ton of bricks if I were to provide such poor advice, yet these people seem to be above criticism, and certainly punishment.

 

[philosopher]

So this morning John Edmunds who is on SAGE has said in the media that the end of February is too early to lift restrictions.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-55687463

A leading epidemiologist says it would be "a disaster" to lift lockdown measures in the UK at the end of February, when the government hopes to have the most vulnerable groups vaccinated.

Professor John Edmunds - who works on the Government's coronavirus response as part of the scientific advisory group for emergencies (Sage) - warns vaccines are not 100% protective, and cautions only a small fraction of the population will have been vaccinated by then.

"If you look at the hospitalisations at the moment, about half of them are in the under-70s, and they are not in the first wave to be vaccinated," he tells BBC Radio 4's Today programme.

"If we relaxed our restrictions we would immediately put the NHS under enormous pressure again."

From how I read that is that he is against any easing of restrictions at the end of Feb, even say the opening of primary schools. If certain SAGE scientists get their way then there would probably be no significant easing until late spring or early summer.

 

[21C101]

So this morning John Edmunds who is on SAGE has said in the media that the end of February is too early to lift restrictions.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-55687463

From how I read that is that he is against any easing of restrictions at the end of Feb, even say the opening of primary schools. If certain SAGE scientists get their way then there would probably be no significant easing until late spring or early summer.

If they had had their way we would have had a continious last March style lockdown ever since then.