When Will It All Go Wrong For The Tories/ Johnson

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Gloster

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If the PM/Cabinet/Party are finally forced to admit that a gathering did take place, but get around the question of it being illegal by obscure points of law and playing with words, it could be even more damaging than a straightforward admission of wrongdoing.
 

jon0844

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Considering how quiet some parts of the media have been, I have a few guesses.

Laura Kuenssberg seemed to lay into the Government this evening, and I had heard rumours that she'd attended. I am starting to assume she didn't, or else she's over compensating. Or she was invited but didn't attend (but would know it went ahead).

I think the next few days will be very interesting.. lots more stuff to get leaked and a lot more people having restless nights working out how to defend their own actions when they're named and shamed. How many people will say they weren't at the party but just popped in for some official business? Will people buy it? No, but they'll still say it.
 

DynamicSpirit

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Just searching through all the prominent newspapers/outlets and all mainstream outlets I could think of, bar 2, have this revelation prominently on their front pages (with the exception of the Telegraph and the Financial Times).

EDIT: The FT now has it too.

The Telegraph are now leading with the story online on their home page.

I think this is going to be very damaging for Boris. In political terms, it's basically Dominic Cummings and that drive to test his eyesight all over again.

I rather suspect a few more Tory MPs will tonight be thinking about handing letters of no confidence to Graham Brady.
 

MattRat

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Considering how quiet some parts of the media have been, I have a few guesses.
I wouldn't be surprised if there were MPs there from both sides of the commons. They like to pretend they are different, but they are all cut from the same cloth.
 

daodao

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The dour party-pooper Baron Keir von Sturmer will probably bring this matter up at PMQs, but most people probably couldn't care less if there was a little jolly at 10 Downing Street pre-Xmas 2020, after all they were probably participating in similar events themselves behind closed doors. Move along, there's nothing to see here.
 

John Hunt

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Interesting development on Breakfast Time BBC.

It appears that Sajid Javed was sheduled to appear today at 7.30 commemorating exactly 1 year since first covid jab. That has now been cancelled and the BBC has thrown down a gauntlet inviting ANY tory minister to appear at 7.30.

Telephone lines must be blistering at the moment LOL.
 

jon0844

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The dour party-pooper Baron Keir von Sturmer will probably bring this matter up at PMQs, but most people probably couldn't care less if there was a little jolly at 10 Downing Street pre-Xmas 2020, after all they were probably participating in similar events themselves behind closed doors. Move along, there's nothing to see here.

Interesting take.
 

Saint66

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Interesting development on Breakfast Time BBC.

It appears that Sajid Javed was sheduled to appear today at 7.30 commemorating exactly 1 year since first covid jab. That has now been cancelled and the BBC has thrown down a gauntlet inviting ANY tory minister to appear at 7.30.

Telephone lines must be blistering at the moment LOL.
Same thing on Sky News and Radio 4 this morning.
 

Darandio

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The dour party-pooper Baron Keir von Sturmer will probably bring this matter up at PMQs, but most people probably couldn't care less if there was a little jolly at 10 Downing Street pre-Xmas 2020, after all they were probably participating in similar events themselves behind closed doors. Move along, there's nothing to see here.

That seemed to be the general feeling last week when news first broke but that was before several blatant lies in the form of Downing Street continuing to deny it. Now there is footage of them openly mocking the public, there's plenty to see now.
 

alex397

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The dour party-pooper Baron Keir von Sturmer will probably bring this matter up at PMQs, but most people probably couldn't care less if there was a little jolly at 10 Downing Street pre-Xmas 2020, after all they were probably participating in similar events themselves behind closed doors. Move along, there's nothing to see here.
I don’t think you have read the room well about this story. People are very angry about this, and the story seems to be really gaining traction. People sacrificed a lot over that winter, so there is definitely something to see here.
Of course, some of the general public did do the same thing, but they were often heavily fined or prosecuted.
 

DarloRich

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The dour party-pooper Baron Keir von Sturmer will probably bring this matter up at PMQs, but most people probably couldn't care less if there was a little jolly at 10 Downing Street pre-Xmas 2020, after all they were probably participating in similar events themselves behind closed doors. Move along, there's nothing to see here.
That is an interesting view. There is plenty to see if you are willing to open your eyes. I wonder why you don't want to do that?
 

Typhoon

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That seemed to be the general feeling last week when news first broke but that was before several blatant lies in the form of Downing Street continuing to deny it. Now there is footage of them openly mocking the public, there's plenty to see now.
That is what I think is critical. Stratton's position is untenable - it may be a question of how long she can hang on or is allowed to hang on, the other speaker (a 'special advisor', what a surprise) is barely in vision so may escape. The problem the PM has is that Carrie is in the Stratton camp.

I don’t think you have read the room well about this story. People are very angry about this, and the story seems to be really gaining traction. People sacrificed a lot over that winter, so there is definitely something to see here.
One particular group were those unable to see loved ones who were in care homes over the holiday period - maybe husband or wife of long standing, children (themselves vulnerable or quite elderly), brothers and sisters. Some won't have survived, or may have physically or mentally deteriorated.
I have already seen interviews with upset relatives as we approach the anniversary of the holiday period, before the 'cheese and wine' was mentioned. There will be more.

These are often 'blue' voters, didn't like Corbyn - or change - at all. Even before this Johnson wasn't their type of Tory, it will be easy for them to stay at home and staying at home might become a habit.


EDIT: I've since seen this:
A Kent MP has become one of the first to break rank amid growing fury over the Downing Street Christmas party scandal.

North Thanet MP Sir Roger Gale said the controversy had 'all the hallmarks of another Barnard Castle moment'.

Now Gale is no signed-up BoJo-ite but he is a backbencher with some clout, who is never afraid to put his head above the parapet and is not on a particular wing of the party (he's an old school, my-word-is-my-bond Tory). He has worded his contribution carefully -
“No 10 clearly has some serious questions to answer. Fast,” tweeted the North Thanet MP.

Speaking to Sky News, Sir Roger said he wants Boris Johnson to say "there was no party and to say that on the record".

"If he says that, I will believe him.

"Because to deliberately mislead the House, if that turns out to be the case, would be a resignation matter."

https://www.kentonline.co.uk/thanet...owning-street-christmas-party-scandal-258781/
 
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nlogax

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That is what I think is critical. Stratton's position is untenable - it may be a question of how long she can hang on or is allowed to hang on, the other speaker (a 'special advisor', what a surprise) is barely in vision so may escape. The problem the PM has is that Carrie is in the Stratton camp.

There's not a great deal for her to hang on to. She's not been a No.10 Press Secretary since the spring and her Cop26 role is pretty much at an end.
 

jon0844

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So Sky News has reported that Attorney General Suella Braverman has been seen entering Downing Street, and it makes me think that given Boris wasn't at the party he will be advised to throw everyone else under the bus, issue a fake apology, and maybe shuffle a few people around to be seen to do something.

Given we can now see Matt Hancock starting on the circuit to reinvent himself, I expect those who get exposed will be advised to lay low for a few months until things blow over.

I can't really see how Boris can do anything else? Keep denying a party took place? Go with the 'yeah, there was a party but it wasn't illegal under XXXX law' line?

There seems to be no other option; just pretend you only just found out like everyone else how naughty other people were and you are equally outraged - then hope the public buys it.
 

birchesgreen

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There seems to be no other option; just pretend you only just found out like everyone else how naughty other people were and you are equally outraged - then hope the public buys it.
The problem with that is, if he says that then it is revealed he was present then he is in serious trouble.

However, if he doesn't say it a lot of people will take it that he was there anyway and is scared to admit it. He has been backed into a corner.
 

DarloRich

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So Sky News has reported that Attorney General Suella Braverman has been seen entering Downing Street, and it makes me think that given Boris wasn't at the party he will be advised to throw everyone else under the bus, issue a fake apology, and maybe shuffle a few people around to be seen to do something.
That is his only option now. Claim he was mislead, sack a few underlings, maybe a toothless enquiry, vaccine roll out. Captain Hindsight. levelling up, peoples priorities, wibble.

That, or he could just hide in a fridge.
 
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jon0844

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The problem with that is, if he says that then it is revealed he was present then he is in serious trouble.

However, if he doesn't say it a lot of people will take it that he was there anyway and is scared to admit it. He has been backed into a corner.

I am pretty sure it has been said by many that he was in Manchester at the time (possibly at another party?!). If he wasn't in Downing Street, I absolutely think he'll use that to save himself and try and sink everyone else.

That is his only option now. Claim he was mislead, sack a few underlings, maybe a toothless enquiry, vaccine roll out. Captain Hindsight. levelling up, peoples priorities, wibble.

That, or he could just hide in a fridge.


5x2qkc.jpg
Image: Meme from Jaws, saying 'You're going to need a bigger fridge'
 
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ainsworth74

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I am pretty sure it has been said by many that he was in Manchester at the time (possibly at another party?!). If he wasn't in Downing Street, I absolutely think he'll use that to save himself and try and sink everyone else.
Stupid of him to ever deny it of course though in that case. Would have been a lot smarter to play the: "I wasn't in Downing Street at the time but I'm sure the staff there would have followed all rules" card and then pivot it into: "I wasn't in Downing Street but this seems extremely concerning and will be fully investigated" into: "I wasn't in Downing Street and will be sacking the ring leaders immediately".

Blanket denials are somewhat harder to walk back. Though presumably they all just assumed that they'd be able to tough it out. Again.
 

brad465

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What's worth mentioning is the controversial Policing Bill is in the final Lords reading today, where Priti Patel snuck in a load more controversial protesting crimes without parliamentary scrutiny. While this latest party bombshell is not good news for the Government, it's a good distraction for passing a bill that will prevent people protesting about the party and/or anything else.
 

jon0844

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Rumour or Twitter heresay?

What's the difference? There were people saying she was there. I am of the opinion she can't have been, although whether she knew about the party is open to debate. If she did know all this time, why didn't she say? (Same goes to all other journalists of course; this wasn't intended to single her out).

It would appear she's making a real effort to attack the Government, which is what makes me think she surely can't expect to get away with it if and when the inevitable 'tapes' are released, along with names. They'll be coming, and that's why the Government is in a state of panic - they KNOW the evidence is out there, from saved texts or photos/video taken at the party itself.

When it comes to the Met Police action (or non-action), given Downing Street has a heavy police presence, how was it that no officer knew of the party? How come none of the officers reported it? Were they all isolating at home and there wasn't a single officer anywhere near the place?!
 

DarloRich

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This is all good fun but the serious point is that the government is losing/has lost the moral authority to govern. How can they impose further restrictions should COVID get worse? Surely many people (most?) will treat any "rules" imposed as guidance and advice rather than an instruction.

It is very worrying and could prove both damaging and costly.
 

jon0844

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This is all good fun but the serious point is that the government is losing/has lost the moral authority to govern. How can they impose further restrictions should COVID get worse? Surely many people (most?) will treat any "rules" imposed as guidance and advice rather than an instruction.

It is very worrying and could prove both damaging and costly.

I think people have been like that for over a year to be honest. Likely ever since the 'eye test' incident in fact.

I cannot imagine how the Government could ever hope to impose another lockdown if there was a new strain that was even more deadly (so far, it seems the new variant might actually be a blessing as it has milder symptoms and can help people build a stronger immunity if they inevitably contract it - although it's too early to tell).

As you say, the Government has lost the moral authority to govern, but plenty of blind eyes will be turned to allow the Tories to continue to carry out their mission to massively change laws in their favour - and the favour of people on the right.
 

dosxuk

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What's the difference? There were people saying she was there.

The vast majority of rumours on Twitter about kuenssberg are fabrications from people who don't understand that reporters report what people are saying and don't like that she reports things they don't agree with.

The vitriol, anger, conspiracy theories and downright nastiness she attracts from some quarters on Twitter makes me question why she even bothers posting on there (although if she didn't that would just start another conspiracy).

Basically, if people on Twitter are saying she was there, then take that with a very large grain of salt until you see any verifiable evidence of that.
 

ainsworth74

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I think people have been like that for over a year to be honest. Likely ever since the 'eye test' incident in fact.
I tend to agree but I think the wave in January 2021 probably shored things up a bit (certainly not back to the levels of compliance we saw in March/April 2020 though!). But this latest incident I think will likely have blown a gaping hole in people's willingness to comply and we'll be fully into "I'll do what I think is right" mode and the Government can do one. And I can't say I blame anyone for feeling like that. Especially as I'm basically at the same point myself!
I cannot imagine how the Government could ever hope to impose another lockdown if there was a new strain that was even more deadly (so far, it seems the new variant might actually be a blessing as it has milder symptoms and can help people build a stronger immunity if they inevitably contract it - although it's too early to tell).
I think fear would be the only way of doing it and then it would probably be the Government following the people rather than leading. If there were unambiguous reports that a new variant was more deadly and was vaccine resistant I think people would probably start to lock themselves down. But otherwise, considering the data for Omicron so far is not too worrying beyond it being more transmissible, I think they're stuffed if they wanted to impose another lockdown of the sort that we saw at the start of this year.
As you say, the Government has lost the moral authority to govern, but plenty of blind eyes will be turned to allow the Tories to continue to carry out their mission to massively change laws in their favour - and the favour of people on the right.
Indeed, perhaps the most depressing aspect of all of this is that whilst a couple of lambs might be sacrificed it seems extremely unlikely anything will actually change. Presumably why they keep behaving in this way. There doesn't appear to be a price for them to pay. At least for the 'important' people.
 

bspahh

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David Allen Green summarises the issues https://davidallengreen.com/2021/12...as-party-the-law-the-policy-and-the-politics/

Politics – in a democracy – is about words, authority, and power.
And this government could not have done more to compromise its political position.

There is a new Private Eye today. https://twitter.com/PrivateEyeNews/status/1468519823185489925 says
Why is the Sun’s coverage of the Downing Street Christmas party story so muted? Could it be because on the very same night in December 2020, the paper was hosting a rule-busting boozy bash of its own?
 

SteveM70

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Marvellous. He apologises “for the impression that was given”. Spineless as usual
 

DarloRich

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Told you: Claim he was mislead, sack a few underlings, maybe a toothless enquiry, vaccine roll out. Captain Hindsight. levelling up, peoples priorities, wibble

Playing politics seems to be the line. Floundering.

EDIT: God the SNP leader at Westminster is pompous windbag. There is a good question in there but cut the waffle and go for the jugular!
 
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