When will restrictions finally end?

[Alex C.]

I think we can expect most restrictions to be gone by early summer (I'm still somewhat optimistically hoping Isle of Wight festival can go ahead but I don't think it will).

I think masks will be one of the last things to disappear - regardless of your views on their effectiveness there is a negligible economic cost to them and many seem reassured by them so it's an easy intervention to keep in place to allow opening up whilst reassuring the population.

 

[hwl]

Is there any data on the pre-existing conditionof those admitted to hospital in the 18-64 age group? I can’t find any for admissions, only for deaths. That shows that of the 50,000 or so people who have died in hospital from Covid 19 (up to 31 December), only 394 (0.8%) were under 60 and had no underlying health condition. If hospital admissions follow a similar proportion, the vaccination of those in that age group with existing health conditions should go some way to solving this. They are the 6th priority, and would be donein late Feb - mid March; add a couple of weeks for immunity to build, another couple for that to feed through into reduced illness, and that’s Easter...



Me too! And, oddly, hangovers not as bad.

The best I can find is the latest ICNARC report from yesterday (75 page pdf)

https://www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Attachments/Download/326bbfc2-d851-eb11-912d-00505601089b

The picture is noticeably different from deaths.

 

[yorkie]

I’d restructure the tiers like this after this lockdown ends in February/March. No area would start any lower than tier 3. I’d also try to make it so larger areas were together in the same tier, for example all of Yorkshire as 1 tier. This is so you don’t have a situation like we’ve just had where York had a large spike as Tier 3 residents in the rest of Yorkshire came to York, which was in Tier 2.


Tier 1

• Rule of 6 indoors and outdoors
• Pubs and Restaurants open with alcohol sales , with max. 2 households in a booking
• Non Essential Travel allowed
• Schools fully open
• Non Essential Shops open
• Leisure Facilities open
• 10,000 Fans/Half capacity (whichever is lower) allowed at sporting events

Tier 2

• No indoor meeting outside of support bubble - Rule of 6 outdoors
• Pubs and Restaurants open without alcohol sales, with max. 1 household in a booking
• Non Essential Travel allowed
• Schools fully open
• Non Essential Shops open
• Leisure Facilities open
• 5,000 Fans/Half capacity (whichever is lower) allowed at sporting events

Tier 3

• No indoor meeting outside of support bubble - Rule of 6 outdoors
• Pubs and Restaurants open for meals with no alcohol sales, with max. 1 household in a booking
• Non Essential Travel allowed but advised against
• Schools open at a level that enables Social Distancing
• Non Essential Shops open
• Leisure Facilities closed
• No fans allowed at spotting events

Tier 4

• No indoor meeting outside of support bubble - Rule of 2 outdoors
• Pubs and Restaurants open for Takeaway and Delivery only
• Essential Travel only
• Schools open at a level that enables Social Distancing
• Non Essential Shops closed
• Leisure Facilities closed
• No fans allowed at spotting events

Tier 5

• No meeting of people allowed indoors or outdoors outside of support bubble
• Pubs and Restaurants closed
• Essential Travel only
• Schools closed with exceptions
• Non Essential Shops closed
• Leisure Facilities closed
• No fans allowed at spotting events

Leisure must reopen ASAP

And social distancing at schools is a non starter

 

[Richard Scott]

Leisure must reopen ASAP

And social distancing at schools is a non starter

Agree on both accounts. Unions trying to push for latter, not in touch with real world obviously.

 

[DB]

Agree on both accounts. Unions trying to push for latter, not in touch with real world obviously.

Indeed - and to be honest antisocial distancing is a non-starter for the hospitality and events industry too once the furlough scheme ends - there's no way many of them could operate profitably under those conditions.

 

[takno]

The best I can find is the latest ICNARC report from yesterday (75 page pdf)

https://www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Attachments/Download/326bbfc2-d851-eb11-912d-00505601089b

The picture is noticeably different from deaths.

I wouldn't like to comment too far on that paper, since it's way outside my experience, but overall it looks like the majority of people being admitted to critical care over the period would likely have survived outside of critical care, and certainly could have waited another day or two. Obviously that's only slightly reassuring since a lot of the admissions were in September and October when we know there was a lot less pressure on beds. I'd suggest that a lot of the cases going into critical care before it was, um, critical, would have been in the younger age groups, since the greater number of pre-existing conditions, DNRs and similar make them inherently less likely to benefit from the treatment. Really you'd need the basic hospital admissions to make a solid judgement on how capacity would be affected.

My best guess is that hospitals are in for a hell of a ride based on the people who are already infected, or continue to be in contact with those who are infected. By mid to late February, the benefits of vaccination will start to kick in, we'll also be past the absolute peak of the respiratory illness season, and illness-acquired herd immunity will start to reduce the R-value (this applies particularly if the new strain can easily reinfect people who had the old strain but not people who had the new strain already). Frustratingly we won't know exactly why the hospital admissions numbers are looking better, but it's very likely they will be.

The key thing is to take that reduction this year as the cue to loosen things up. If we don't wonder off into some kind of elimination fantasy again, and just accept that there will be ongoing cases over the summer. Hopefully by autumn we will have covered the over 50s as well, and can balance injecting the over-40s with looking at whether we need to re-inject the over 80s.

The absolute worst thing we can do is open up late, try to do the impossible and just leave ourselves worn out and completely unprepared for whatever comes our way next winter.

 

[DB]

The absolute worst thing we can do is open up late, try to do the impossible and just leave ourselves worn out and completely unprepared for whatever comes our way next winter.

Sounds like exactly the sort of thing which Johnson and Hancock plus Doom & Gloom will look at doing...

 

[Philip]

Do people really think we when we come out of lockdown some regions will go into tiers 3 or 4 and others into tier 2?

It might sound biased, but it would feel very unfair if, for example, Greater Manchester had to endure another month or longer of the toughest tiers after lockdown finishes, whereas other cities are allowed much more freedom, simply based on case or admission numbers, particularly since Greater Manchester has been under restrictions of some form since July, and has been either in lockdown or tier 3-4 restrictions since late October.

Once this lockdown finishes, the concept of regional restrictions has to be scrapped and besides, compliance would be much lower if certain regions are 'punished' for having bad numbers.

 

[6862]

Sounds like exactly the sort of thing which Johnson and Hancock plus Doom & Gloom will look at doing...

I agree. I'm sure they'll dress it up as either having 'learned from past lessons' or blame us peasants for inevitably having to do another lockdown.

 

[DB]

Do people really think we when we come out of lockdown some regions will go into tiers 3 or 4 and others into tier 2?

Absolutely - they will replace it with something convoluted and thoroughly confusing, applied with opaque "logic". They might well call them tiers, but will doubtless fiddle around and make them different to the last lot of tiers.

 

[brad465]

I wouldn't like to comment too far on that paper, since it's way outside my experience, but overall it looks like the majority of people being admitted to critical care over the period would likely have survived outside of critical care, and certainly could have waited another day or two. Obviously that's only slightly reassuring since a lot of the admissions were in September and October when we know there was a lot less pressure on beds. I'd suggest that a lot of the cases going into critical care before it was, um, critical, would have been in the younger age groups, since the greater number of pre-existing conditions, DNRs and similar make them inherently less likely to benefit from the treatment. Really you'd need the basic hospital admissions to make a solid judgement on how capacity would be affected.

My best guess is that hospitals are in for a hell of a ride based on the people who are already infected, or continue to be in contact with those who are infected. By mid to late February, the benefits of vaccination will start to kick in, we'll also be past the absolute peak of the respiratory illness season, and illness-acquired herd immunity will start to reduce the R-value (this applies particularly if the new strain can easily reinfect people who had the old strain but not people who had the new strain already). Frustratingly we won't know exactly why the hospital admissions numbers are looking better, but it's very likely they will be.

The key thing is to take that reduction this year as the cue to loosen things up. If we don't wonder off into some kind of elimination fantasy again, and just accept that there will be ongoing cases over the summer. Hopefully by autumn we will have covered the over 50s as well, and can balance injecting the over-40s with looking at whether we need to re-inject the over 80s.

The absolute worst thing we can do is open up late, try to do the impossible and just leave ourselves worn out and completely unprepared for whatever comes our way next winter.

In response to the hospital occupancy levels with Covid, I saw two suggestions that should have been looked at:

- Offering more remote care/monitoring for patients who need attention but don't require the specialist facilities found in hospitals
- Turning hospitals into either Covid-only or Covid-free ones, as a means of trying to greatly limit spread of Covid within hospitals

 

[DB]

- Turning hospitals into either Covid-only or Covid-free ones, as a means of trying to greatly limit spread of Covid within hospitals

Given the level of asynmptomatic cases, that one would be very difficult to manage, given that once it gets in the conditions in a hospital (lots of people with health problems) are ideal for a virus like this.

 

[VauxhallandI]

Someone I know was ill and waited as they were apprehensive about using the NHS. In the end he went to the Dr’s who didn’t let him in and sent him to the hospital who told him to go home as he wasn’t ill enough yet.

 

[rumoto]

I've found an interesting piece of news where it is mentioned that Government officials are looking at March 23 as a realistic date to start the easing of restrictions, and May Day bank holiday as the date when pubs may reopen.

Shock therapy: Boris Johnson’s critics say cabinet needs massive jolt

If Boris Johnson thought performing his biggest pandemic pirouette to date — closing schools that a day earlier he had declared would remain open — would be the low moment of his week, fate had

www.thetimes.co.uk

The prime minister has talked up the prospect of vaccinating all 15 million of the most vulnerable by mid-February before a review of the regulations, but privately officials are targeting March 23 — the anniversary of the start of the first lockdown — as a more realistic moment for an easing of restrictions. Another said: “The May Day bank holiday is more likely the moment you see pubs reopening.”


These tensions are only going to increase as the scientists demand action. Privately, these advisers are telling Johnson he cannot just vaccinate the most vulnerable and then lift restrictions. “They are saying that younger and lower-risk people shouldn’t leave home until they have been vaccinated,” said one official — a process that will take until at least the autumn.


But if Johnson follows this approach, it will put him on a collision course with the influential Covid Recovery Group on the Tory back benches, which argues that the costs, to wealth and health, will be too high. Steve Baker, the group’s organiser, said: “This idea that we can continue with periodic lockdowns and restrictions is for the birds. It is totally at odds with life in a free society. It is completely intolerable from any reasonable political perspective.”

 

[yorksrob]

I've found an interesting piece of news where it is mentioned that Government officials are looking at March 23 as a realistic date to start the easing of restrictions, and May Day bank holiday as the date when pubs may reopen.

What a load of c**p. These "advisors" need reigning in.

These cretins can say what they wish, but I will be leaving home once the vulnerable have been vaccinated.

 

[DB]

Good to see that Steve Baker is back on the case. His group really is the only hope for sense to prevail - the official opposition have become the unofficial supporters and are a waste of space.

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

"These tensions are only going to increase as the scientists demand action. Privately, these advisers are telling Johnson he cannot just vaccinate the most vulnerable and then lift restrictions. “They are saying that younger and lower-risk people shouldn’t leave home until they have been vaccinated,” said one official — a process that will take until at least the autumn."

Two words - and the second one is "off".

 

[DB]

Two words - and the second one is "off".

Indeed - these unnamed scientists (I think we can guess who they are) need to be told to take a hike.

 

[Class 33]

I think we can expect most restrictions to be gone by early summer (I'm still somewhat optimistically hoping Isle of Wight festival can go ahead but I don't think it will).

I think masks will be one of the last things to disappear - regardless of your views on their effectiveness there is a negligible economic cost to them and many seem reassured by them so it's an easy intervention to keep in place to allow opening up whilst reassuring the population.

Theatres are (currently) due to finally reopen on 30th April. If face mask wearing laws are still in place by then, then I really can't see many people wanting to goto the theatre for 2 to 3 hours and sat there wearing those bloody things on their faces!

By that time then with all the millions of vaccinations that would have been administered, there will just be no justification atall for social distancing and face mask wearing to continue. It's time to finally say goodbye once and for all to both of those blasted restrictions, and be able to let the hospitality, leisure, travel, retail, etc sectors get back to normal again. And for everyone to get back to a normal life again!

 

[yorksrob]

The article's a bit wishy-washy. It says a lot about removing Williamson, but not reigning in Whitty and the like.

Theatres are (currently) due to finally reopen on 30th April. If face mask wearing laws are still in place by then, then I really can't see many people wanting to goto the theatre for 2 to 3 hours and sat there wearing those bloody things on their faces!

By that time then with all the millions of vaccinations that would have been administered, there will just be no justification atall for social distancing and face mask wearing to continue. It's time to finally say goodbye once and for all to both of those blasted restrictions, and be able to let the hospitality, leisure, travel, retail, etc sectors get back to normal again. And for everyone to get back to a normal life again!

Some of these imbeciles are suggesting we're all locked down until we've had the vaccine - likely Autumn for some of us.

 

[brad465]

I've found an interesting piece of news where it is mentioned that Government officials are looking at March 23 as a realistic date to start the easing of restrictions, and May Day bank holiday as the date when pubs may reopen.

What a load of c**p. These "advisors" need reigning in.

These cretins can say what they wish, but I will be leaving home once the vulnerable have been vaccinated.

Good to see that Steve Baker is back on the case. His group really is the only hope for sense to prevail - the official opposition have become the unofficial supporters and are a waste of space.

The CRG will be quiet at the moment because the dire situation that Covid seems to be creating at the moment will make them and their arguments look really stupid. However, once vaccination levels are much higher and infections on the way down, combined with the onset of spring, I'm expecting them to come roaring back trying to exert their influence, and an improving picture with Covid, but no major easing of restrictions, will be enough for them to effectively say to Johnson, Hancock et al., "ease restrictions or you're out the door".

 

[NorthOxonian]

The article's a bit wishy-washy. It says a lot about removing Williamson, but not reigning in Whitty and the like.



Some of these imbeciles are suggesting we're all locked down until we've had the vaccine - likely Autumn for some of us.

Sadly, I worry that they'll get their wish (and no doubt they'd extend it through the winter too, just in case).

 

[yorksrob]

The CRG will be quiet at the moment because the dire situation that Covid seems to be creating at the moment will make them and their arguments look really stupid. However, once vaccination levels are much higher and infections on the way down, combined with the onset of spring, I'm expecting them to come roaring back trying to exert their influence, and an improving picture with Covid, but no major easing of restrictions, will be enough for them to effectively say to Johnson, Hancock et al., "ease restrictions or you're out the door".

I certainly hope so. However, with labour being so supine, it will be difficult.

Sadly, I worry that they'll get their wish (and no doubt they'd extend it through the winter too, just in case).

I'm coming to conclusion that these people will need to be held accountable for their actions in court.

 

[Bikeman78]

That's no basis for keeping social distancing in place. Obviously masks could still be worn so that people can demonstrate that they care and are good people, but I'd suggest wearing them pinned to the lapel like poppies, which would be more practical and just as effective

Well that made me burst out laughing so thanks for that!

 

[yorksrob]

As I've said so before about these SAGE types.

They have public compliance while the vulnerable are being vaccinated. That will not be there once that is completed and they try to impose further lockdown.

 

[Tezza1978]

I've found an interesting piece of news where it is mentioned that Government officials are looking at March 23 as a realistic date to start the easing of restrictions, and May Day bank holiday as the date when pubs may reopen.

That article looks like its referring to a certain subset of the "advisors" who might well be saying that- e.g. Susan Michie (Communist party member, demanded hospitality remain closed last summer, wants nurseries and construction sites closed immediately to tighten lockdown ) and a couple of her supporters on SAGE who have piped up recently, also people like Devi Sridhar . Even Whitty - who I am not a fan of - recently said the government has to accept an element of risk to reopen society -he isn't a Zero COVID fanatic by any means. Several press sources recently say that Neil Ferguson is viewed as a lockdown fanatic too and what he says is not taken at face value by the cabinet.

If cases and hospitalisations and deaths are dropping fast there is 0% chance keeping hospitality closed until May will be politically possible for Johnson, the only thing that would allow that would be something extremely unlikely eg vaccines don't work as expected. Much as I loathe Johnson he won't support keeping things closed longer than needed. Keir Starmer is also astute and a pragmatist - he won't listen to the insane Corbynistas who are demanding a zero COVID approach.

If Johnson did try and do that there would be a leadership challenge which he would lose. Sunak the favourite by far, Gove seen as treacherous and far to much of a lockdown fan by the CRG/ERG lot.

Much as I hate the Conservative party, as a "centrist" Labour member, the CRG will be useful here and will stop restrictions from rolling on too long. The dire economic, social and NHS waiting list consequences of all this will also be coming apparent.

 

[yorksrob]

That article looks like its referring to a certain subset of the "advisors" who might well be saying that- e.g. Susan Michie (Communist party member, demanded hospitality remain closed last summer, wants nurseries and construction sites closed immediately to tighten lockdown ) and a couple of her supporters on SAGE who have piped up recently, also people like Devi Sridhar . Even Whitty - who I am not a fan of - recently said the government has to accept an element of risk to reopen society -he isn't a Zero COVID fanatic by any means. Several press sources recently say that Neil Ferguson is viewed as a lockdown fanatic too and what he says is not taken at face value by the cabinet.

If cases and hospitalisations and deaths are dropping fast there is 0% chance keeping hospitality closed until May will be politically possible for Johnson, the only thing that would allow that would be something extremely unlikely eg vaccines don't work as expected. Much as I loathe Johnson he won't support keeping things closed longer than needed. Keir Starmer is also astute and a pragmatist - he won't listen to the insane Corbynistas who are demanding a zero COVID approach.

If Johnson did try and do that there would be a leadership challenge which he would lose. Sunak the favourite by far, Gove seen as treacherous and far to much of a lockdown fan by the CRG/ERG lot.

Much as I hate the Conservative party, as a "centrist" Labour member, the CRG will be useful here and will stop restrictions from rolling on too long. The dire economic, social and NHS waiting list consequences of all this will also be coming apparent.

I would hope that you're right in your assessment.

However, Dominic Cummings has been dismissed (whatever one thinks of him, he was apparently a leading voice in getting hospitality opened after lockdown one).

In the Times article, Hancock is being portrayed as being viewed as "optimistic" by Johnson and colleagues, which suggests that Johnson is less so.

It appears to me to be that Johnson is becoming more influenced by the lockdown obsessives than previously.

 

[Yew]

It appears to me to be that Johnson is becoming more influenced by the lockdown obsessives than previously.

It's an easy path, politically, you get to claim you've saved lives, and damage can be blamed on the virus.

 

[yorksrob]

It's an easy path, politically, you get to claim you've saved lives, and damage can be blamed on the virus.

Indeed. In this perverse world where it is seen as a public benefit for citizens to be confined in their homes by force, this could be seen as politically beneficial.

 

[bramling]

However, Dominic Cummings has been dismissed (whatever one thinks of him, he was apparently a leading voice in getting hospitality opened after lockdown one).

In the Times article, Hancock is being portrayed as being viewed as "optimistic" by Johnson and colleagues, which suggests that Johnson is less so.

It appears to me to be that Johnson is becoming more influenced by the lockdown obsessives than previously.

I suspect the issue with BJ is that 80,000 figure, which seems almost certain to surpass the 100,000 milestone. Unfortunately the word legacy will be etched into BJ’s mind, and that is going to inform his decision making. Economic armageddon, your or my wellbeing will barely register as it will be someone else’s problem.