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When will restrictions finally end?

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The Ham

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Absolute rubbish! With all these vaccinations being ramped up now, there's no way restrictions can or will last for the rest of the year at least! Whilst the healthcare and deaths stats situation is absolutely dire at the moment, there will come a turning point in the next few weeks when all these stats will come tumbling down week on week. And by a few months time, all the stats will be incredibly low and then there's now way the NHS can then be moaning and groaning that their hospitals are overloaded with Covid patients, and that we've got to "Stay Home. Protect the NHS. Save Lives.". All these silly restrictions will then have to be eased and scrapped altogether to get this country back up and running again and the people of this country to enjoy a return to normal life again.

Snippet from the Sky News website....

Restrictions 'lifted in the spring'

There's a difference between current restrictions, no restrictions and some restrictions.

The current restrictions are likely to be scaled back in the spring.

Some restrictions will likely be in place for most of the rest of this year (but this may not be across the whole country and may only be limited things, as an example there's been cases identified in location X so anyone with need to travel there will need to limit their contact with others).

No restrictions is likely to be beyond this year, however there's likely to be some things which people opt to continue to do or there maybe some changes which are brought in (such as allowing staff to work at home if they are ill to reduce staff away from the office sick as if the first staff member isn't in then they can't pass it on to others).

If we still have the same restrictions as even before Christmas by Easter is be very surprised and very worried as clearly something wouldn't be working as well as it should (and would probably highlight that lockdowns were of little benefit to everyone).

I'm frankly appalled at the attitude of people on here that say restrictions must say 'because it's not safe' or saying there's 'no way' restrictions will be going anytime soon. I think you ought to remember there is more in this world than just COVID, and once the vaccine has been rolled out to the most vulnerable, that will prevent a significant number of hospitalisations. It will be a gradual relaxation, as the vaccine rollout will have a gradual effect on hospital capacity, and I would expect the easing to follow this model. My guess would be

Lockdown -> Everywhere Tiers 3/4

Individual relaxations/tightening dependant on hospital capacity in certain areas.

When vaccine has enough impact on this, we will eventually all be in tier 1 (or thereabouts), and the government will finally call it a day on these restrictions once and for all.

There is NO such thing as a risk free society, and you will ALWAYS face certain risks when you leave your home. It is not the job of government to mitigate risks like this. The justification for the third full lockdown is due to hospital capacity, NOT due to people dying from COVID (despite what they say). It is not the duty of the state to protect us against respiratory viruses, that's a risk we choose to take in society, and frankly it needs to stay that way, or there will be a gross imbalance of prioritising quantity of life over quality of life.

Whilst there's lots of other risks in the last week more people died of Covid-19 than died on the roads during the whole of 2000 & 2001 (when road deaths were nearly double their current rate).

Unless we start to see deaths fall significantly then we could see over the next month deaths reach the same number as died on the roads over the last decade.

No I'm not living in a deluded fantasy world. Please don't say I am!

You're saying these restrictions are going to last for the rest of the year at least!!! That is absolute madness! If all these restrictions continued until at least the end of the year the whole country would just steadily fall apart. Thousands upon thousands of more businesses will go under, millions more will become unemployed, there would be a mental health crisis of absolute biblical proportions, more and more people would be committing suicide as they'd just be unable to take all these harsh restrictions any longer. I will be one of them.

Within a few months the daily deaths from Coronavirus will be miniscule as a result of all these vaccinations. And the hospitalisations and numbers in hospital should be steadily falling week on week by then too. Absolutely no need for all these absolutely ridiculous restrictions to continue much longer. When we get to this stage, just what an earth justifications would there be for keeping all these restrictions??

I am confident that by Easter, things should be much much better. It's what keeping me going right now. If we believe the likes of you who seem to think we'll be living with these restrictions for at least another year or so or even forever, then it will not do our mental health good.

If we see some limited restricts at the end of the year it may well be that they are so limited in scale that the impact on the economy is tiny.

And so has Matt Hancock, when he supported the police who fined those two women £200 for travelling 5 miles to get some exercise, and then said having a cup of coffee constitutes a picnic, and is not allowed.

I have never heard such ridiculous claptrap in all my life.

And then the silly twit says "Every flexing of the rules can be fatal".

More claptrap.

How do you know that travelling 5 miles from your home for exercise is fatal?

Those two women travelled by car, so weren't mixing with anyone else, and the open space they went to was sufficiently empty to enable social distancing to take place. So there was no more risk than if they had walked from their houses to the nearest public park.

A clear overreaction by the police, the problem with such a reaction is that it's likely going to have a similar outcome as that seen after Cummings' trip to Northumberland where people just give up the rules.
 
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HLE

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Perfect timing really for Steph Rigby to then ask why he supports fining 2 people who travelled locally to exercise (perfectly in line with the rules) but supported Cumming's actions last year. Obviously Dom was his boss at the time, but it'd show Hancock, and the other cabinet weasels to be completely hypocritical. Do as I say, not as I do mantra. It isn't the public's fault the NHS has been woefully underprepared for the early months of 2021.
 

Xenophon PCDGS

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Not at all impressed at those website members who seem to feel that masks are somewhat irrelevant in this current pandemic.

Going back quite a few years to my more younger days, there was a campaign in the media that said "Coughs and sneezes spread diseases, trap your germs in a handkerchief". If these website members had been posting should the internet be then avaiable for use, would they have also expressed reasons why they disagreed with that campaign.
 

Scotrail12

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Not at all impressed at those website members who do not seem to feel that masks are somewhat irrelevant in this current pandemic.

Going back quite a few years to my more younger days, there was a campaign in the media that said "Coughs and sneezes spread diseases, trap your germs in a handkerchief". If these website members had been posting should the internet be then avaiable for use, would they have also expressed reasons why they disagreed with that campaign.
I don't think anyone is advocating sneezing into air, it's just manners to use a handkerchief when sneezing and it's far from the inconvenience that masks are.
 

farleigh

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Not at all impressed at those website members who seem to feel that masks are somewhat irrelevant in this current pandemic.

Going back quite a few years to my more younger days, there was a campaign in the media that said "Coughs and sneezes spread diseases, trap your germs in a handkerchief". If these website members had been posting should the internet be then avaiable for use, would they have also expressed reasons why they disagreed with that campaign.
Were you allowed to go into shops without a handkerchief in those days?
 

initiation

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Not at all impressed at those website members who seem to feel that masks are somewhat irrelevant in this current pandemic.

Going back quite a few years to my more younger days, there was a campaign in the media that said "Coughs and sneezes spread diseases, trap your germs in a handkerchief". If these website members had been posting should the internet be then avaiable for use, would they have also expressed

1. If you are sneezing you obviously have some kind of bug (or possibly hay-fever in the summer). Masks are mandated to be worn by all regardless of if they are symptomatic.

2. Sneezing projects particles quite some distance whereas if you are not sneezing (see point 1) then the projection is nowhere near as significant.

3. Even if you had a cold, you would not be legally obliged to carry a handkerchief. Guidance is just that, advice. Of course common courtesy would be not to sneeze directly in someone's face and very few people if any did.

Or perhaps you think we should be obliged to use handkerchiefs when standing in a pub but we don't need to when seated?
 

DB

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In terms of pubs, the original ‘covid secure’ requirements last summer weren’t actually a disaster. Many saw takings increase believe it or not, in part due to the built up demand but also in part because a lot of people enjoyed the slightly more civilised environment. Table service was also a big hit

Food-led pubs with a reasonable amount of space, maybe (and I would still be surprised if none of them made use of the furlough scheme) - but distancing measures are crucifying wet-led and physically smaller ones.

Plus much of the events and leisure industry cannot operate at all with these sorts of measures.

Also plenty of people on long term furlough who are miserable, and probably feeling horribly guilty at being paid to do nothing, and worrying if they'll ever have a job to go back to.

Probably - but those people aren't the vocal ones!

He does not put any timeframe on it though other than saying obeying the lockdown will bring about normality quicker.

Surely he can't expect anyone to actually believe him? That line has been used repeatedly all year and has lost all credibility as the opposite always happens.

In this case, if this strain is actually more infectious (unproven so far as I know), wider spread would just lead to it running out of people to infect sooner.
 
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C J Snarzell

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I had a small bet of £5 with my brother yesterday about when the current lockdown restrictions will end.

I'm aiming for the first week in March then we will revert back to the tier b*****ks again - tier 3 for Greater Manchester until early April which the government will time nicely after the Easter weekend to stop the idiots partying over the long bank holiday.

By brother is optimistic - he's said six weeks for the current lockdown which brings it until mid February followed by the tier restrictions until late March with a lot of restrictions being relaxed around the first anniversary of the original lockdown on the 23rd.

We will see!

CJ
 

DB

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Let's call it what it is, a Chinese authoritarian type lockdown. That's what SAGE want, and seemingly what they have wanted for previous pandemics. Maybe it is time to seal SAGE into their homes, drip feed them cheap and nasty food & see how long it would be before they started to complain.

Plus so far as I know, even China only did one lockdown and that ws it - not repeatedly like here.

This country couldn't manage to deliver food to everyone anyway - the government is far too incompetent, and unlike China they don't have a major millitary force to use.
 

HSTEd

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1. If you are sneezing you obviously have some kind of bug (or possibly hay-fever in the summer).

Well either I have ben continuously infected my entire life or that isn't true.

I have a dust allergy that hits me al the time.
 

Xenophon PCDGS

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Apologies for playing "Devil's Advocate" earlier, but at my age, I well remember the relaxations of what was felt to be the norm of behaviour in those far-off days has now led to what some have described as a "more relaxed understanding of life" in this century.

That well-known occultist and satanist Aleister Crowley (1875-1947) founded his Creed of Thelema in which the guiding rule was "Do what thou wilt, be the whole of the law". He would be delighted at the relaxations that have come to pass.
 

DB

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Not at all impressed at those website members who seem to feel that masks are somewhat irrelevant in this current pandemic.

Going back quite a few years to my more younger days, there was a campaign in the media that said "Coughs and sneezes spread diseases, trap your germs in a handkerchief". If these website members had been posting should the internet be then avaiable for use, would they have also expressed reasons why they disagreed with that campaign.

You can be as unimpressed as you like! The fact is that there is no evidence that masks have led to any reduction in infection rates.

You seem to be using a strawman argument and claiming that anyone not wearing a mask sneezes all over everyone else under normal circumstances. I don't know what sort of people you spend time with, but that's not what people generally do.
 

initiation

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Well either I have ben continuously infected my entire life or that isn't true.

I have a dust allergy that hits me al the time.

Yes. Should perhaps state hay-fever or other allergy. In any case, the point still stands.
 

DB

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Apologies for playing "Devil's Advocate" earlier, but at my age, I well remember the relaxations of what was felt to be the norm of behaviour in those far-off days has now led to what some have described as a "more relaxed understanding of life" in this century.

That well-known occultist and satanist Aleister Crowley (1875-1947) founded his Creed of Thelema in which the guiding rule was "Do what thou wilt, be the whole of the law". He would be delighted at the relaxations that have come to pass.

Not quite sure what point you are trying to make? Is it that "people nowadays do things I don't approve of, it was all so much better back in the good old days"?
 

brad465

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I had a small bet of £5 with my brother yesterday about when the current lockdown restrictions will end.

I'm aiming for the first week in March then we will revert back to the tier b*****ks again - tier 3 for Greater Manchester until early April which the government will time nicely after the Easter weekend to stop the idiots partying over the long bank holiday.

By brother is optimistic - he's said six weeks for the current lockdown which brings it until mid February followed by the tier restrictions until late March with a lot of restrictions being relaxed around the first anniversary of the original lockdown on the 23rd.

We will see!

CJ
I'm of the belief that something will be being relaxed on or shortly before March 23rd, for the sake of it being the first lockdown anniversary. How much by I'm not sure, but in order to make the situation look better than a year ago they'll want to avoid whatever restrictions being in place taking the form of a "lockdown", and I expect they'll try and get hospitality open, even if there are still many restrictions on what can be done in such venues, because it was all very much shut a year earlier.
 

DB

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I'm of the belief that something will be being relaxed on or shortly before March 23rd, for the sake of it being the first lockdown anniversary. How much by I'm not sure, but in order to make the situation look better than a year ago they'll want to avoid whatever restrictions being in place taking the form of a "lockdown", and I expect they'll try and get hospitality open, even if there are still many restrictions on what can be done in such venues, because it was all very much shut a year earlier.

It's also likely to depend on the public mood. Currently a depressingly large number seem to just accept whatever Johnson comes out with. If cases are falling and the weather improving that may change, but I'm not confident - this whole situation has demonstrated just how easily populations can be manipulated.
 

Freightmaster

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Nothing whatsoever to do with what you state above about "my approval". Just a recognition of what once was viewed as the norm and how matters now stand in this century.
You do realise that cultural and social norms are constantly changing and evolving, don't you??



In those days, carrying a handkerchief was de rigeuer and was carried as part of how you dressed....well it was in my circle.

Xenophobe earlier today... ;)
0092da5dfe02144ce288c9f8b58946b9.jpg

(photo of 'Rowley Birkin QC' from the Fast Show)
 
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Luke McDonnell

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I have read today that hospitality like pubs may not be permitted to open until May if that's the case they will end up being closed for as long as the first lockdown which does sound pretty pessimistic considering they are expecting the vast majority of the vulnerable population to have been vaccinated by the middle of February and that hospitality venues only account for quite a small proportion of Covid transmission (compared with education settings for example). Why May does anyone think it will be May for indoor hospitality surely if the vaccination programme runs smoothly there will be a lot of pressure from the industry to open earlier?

Luke
 

Xenophon PCDGS

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It's also likely to depend on the public mood. Currently a depressingly large number seem to just accept whatever Johnson comes out with. If cases are falling and the weather improving that may change, but I'm not confident - this whole situation has demonstrated just how easily populations can be manipulated.

Is what the public at large being told that the new variant of the Covid-19 being much more infectious a "damned lie" with no truth whatsoever?

Do all these "supposed dangers" eminate directly from the fertile Etonian mind of Johnson or is he just repeating what he has been told by "the science monitors"?
 

DB

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Is what the public at large being told that the new variant of the Covid-19 being much more infectious a "damned lie" with no truth whatsoever?

Do all these "supposed dangers" eminate directly from the fertile Etonian mind of Johnson or is he just repeating what he has been told by "the science monitors"?

So far as I am aware it has not actually been demonstrated either way yet - now is the time of year when spread would be at its highest anyway for a seasonal virus like this. It may be more infectious, but as usual with Covid a suggestion that something may be the case has been presented as virtually a certainty when it suits the government.

Johnson is supposed to be taking a balanced view, also considering all other aspects. He has done that less and less as the year has gone on.
 

C J Snarzell

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I have read today that hospitality like pubs may not be permitted to open until May if that's the case they will end up being closed for as long as the first lockdown which does sound pretty pessimistic considering they are expecting the vast majority of the vulnerable population to have been vaccinated by the middle of February and that hospitality venues only account for quite a small proportion of Covid transmission (compared with education settings for example). Why May does anyone think it will be May for indoor hospitality surely if the vaccination programme runs smoothly there will be a lot of pressure from the industry to open earlier?

Luke

If it is May for the hospitality industry, Rishi Sunak will need to extend furlough....yet again!!!!

CJ
 

brad465

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It's also likely to depend on the public mood. Currently a depressingly large number seem to just accept whatever Johnson comes out with. If cases are falling and the weather improving that may change, but I'm not confident - this whole situation has demonstrated just how easily populations can be manipulated.
Falling cases, improving weather and potentially also events that were postponed/cancelled last year being so again will at the very least give traction to those demanding an end to all this to speak out more. Add an increasing proportion of the population vaccinated and they'll have good foundations from which to argue this.

Something else that might lead to concerns being raised about the sustainability of this approach is the next round of GDP and unemployment data: The monthly GDP estimate for November is due on the 15th January this week coming, which will almost certainly be a contraction given this was a (half hearted) lockdown month, and lay foundations for January's data being even worse (this won't come out till March, but it's inevitably poor data would help gain traction for ending all restrictions by this point). Unemployment is due at the end of this month and will be using data from the three months up to November. Given the Furlough scheme had a brief pause around then, there may have been some redundancies planned and made that the sudden u-turn in policy won't have stopped.
 

Carlisle

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I have read today that hospitality like pubs may not be permitted to open until May if that's the case they will end up being closed for as long as the first lockdown
If that date proves correct, nearly all of the country’s wet pubs will have ended up being closed for almost twice as long as they were during the first Lockdown
 
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Yew

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Xenophone sounds like a cross between the Greek chronicler Xenophon and the musical instrument known as a xylophone.... o_O
It does give an air of the musical devices used to communicate with the aliens in 'Close Encounters of the Third Kind'

(The scene from said film.)
 

hwl

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Is what the public at large being told that the new variant of the Covid-19 being much more infectious a "damned lie" with no truth whatsoever?

Do all these "supposed dangers" eminate directly from the fertile Etonian mind of Johnson or is he just repeating what he has been told by "the science monitors"?
From latest PHE data analysis: The older variants had an 11% probability of transmission per contact, the new strain is 15% per contact.
 

yorkie

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From my experience of people I know, the (very) few people who welcome the restrictions are those who have anxiety about the virus, and indeed many other things. I actually don’t know anybody who wants more restrictions - it seems to me that they are generally of a similar singular mindset (albeit polar opposites) of the anti-vaxx brigade, who will wheel out a Dr to say how the vaccine is dangerous etc and that we should all trust in the Lord to see us through this.
The extremists on both sides are bad; on one hand you have the extreme authoritarians and on the other you have the anti vax etc; both sides are an extreme danger to our society. My concern is that the extremes on one side are widely recognised as a danger and are not taken seriously, while extremes on the other have a foothold in the media and government policy. I find that worrying and therefore feel I need to highlight the danger of the authoritarians and I won't stop until I see the threat has dissipated.

Far worse and far more undermining of the message than his remarks about travelling a few miles is him saying every flex can be fatal the day after they said fishing is now permitted. So they flexed the rules because they admit that some of the rules are stupid and totally out of proportion and they then say flexing them is fatal. Clowns is the only appropriate word for some of these people.
That's a good point; if someone had gone fishing before the guidance changed that person could have been illegally fined as well as deemed to be responsible for deaths, but since the guidance changed they no longer are.

I personally am not interested in fishing whatsoever but I support this decision because it is harmless and I recognise the mental health benefits. But it should not have been against the guidance in the first place!

Not at all impressed at those website members who seem to feel that masks are somewhat irrelevant in this current pandemic.
I refer you to my posts in other threads. If you wish to disagree with me, quote which part you disagree with in the relevant thread. As for not being impressed, well the feeling is mutual!
Is what the public at large being told that the new variant of the Covid-19 being much more infectious a "damned lie" with no truth whatsoever?
It's almost certainly more infectious but it looks highly unlikely to be the 70% more infectious some were claiming. Don't forget the strain that swept Italy, then Europe and ultimately dominated the world was significantly more infectious than the original strain that swept through Wuhan (see my posts on that subject in other threads)

Do all these "supposed dangers" eminate directly from the fertile Etonian mind of Johnson or is he just repeating what he has been told by "the science monitors"?
Scientists are not saying one unified thing; there are many scientists who disagree with each other on a wide range of aspects of this pandemic. The Government appear to be selective as to which scientists they wish to believe, for example the disgraced Professor Ferguson is high up in their list, despite his calculations being very wrong.
 

C J Snarzell

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I have commented before about the 'end game' - this is when the needs of education, the economy, mental health, cancer treatments and quite a few others start to take precedence over the needs of tackling the virus.

Local police forces are also saying they are dealing with a recorded high of domestic incidents because people are spending prolonged periods cooped up indoors. One party cannot simply leave to go to another address with breaching restrictions. This is yet again another example of why there has to be an end game to lockdown/tiers.

I am hoping that very soon this government will realise that these restrictions cannot continue well into the year. However, I have no faith in what Boris Johnson does because he is simply blinded by scientists who have no interest in non-covid issues.

CJ
 
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