When will restrictions finally end?

[The Prisoner]

If social distancing is still required and capacity at festivals being severely limited, then for almost all festival organisers this will just be completely financially unviable for their festivals to go ahead! It's either no social distancing and festivals being able to accommodate their usual intended capacity, or not atall. And if many festivals have to cancel again this year, then I expect a fair number of them will not return again.

As mentioned Oliver Dowden said that he expects the events industry to be back to normal by Easter. Let's see if he turns out to be right on that. I and many many others are really hoping so.

I posted at the start of this thread - I run a festival - around 10,000 over a weekend. If we aren't back to normal by Easter we won't have much choice but to postpone because our ticket selling window would be too small and there would be too much uncertainty.

We have sold around 25% of our capacity so far having gone on sale on Valentines Day of this year - the sales were flying for three weeks and then we have been impacted by Covid ever since, firstly moving 2020 to 2021 (thankfully we kept all of our artists, but we had to bribe the punters to "keep their ticket" by adding more headliners - that was actually cheaper than having a run on refunds).

I've made a submission to a parliamentary commission on what needs to be done for the sector to come back for 2021 - major concerns are that events will be uninsurable as both venues and promoters will want to be insured against covid risk (and that doesn't exist right now), that social distancing and festivals are not compatible (any social distancing still needed and that's the festival season gone folks - the best we can do is a temperature zap), lack of punter confidence and lack of government support (take a look how many festivals were helped by the turd that was the Culture Recovery Fund - there were about three).

Mine isn't a major festival and we are only in our third year (although we have got 2-3 household names). It costs a six figure sum to put on. If there is ANY remotely significant doubt in March/April we have no choice but to postpone to 2022 on safety, logistical and commercial grounds

And you are right about it being the death knell for so many of these events. I know 2-3 that are clinging on for dear life. We will be OK because the event isn't my day job, but if it was we'd probably have given up by now.

 

[Cdd89]

Remember also that as the effect of the vaccine kicks in - which it will already be doing - the “average age of Covid death” will be pushed sharply downwards. Those pushing hardest for restrictions presently like to ignore this statistic as it is inconvenient but as it falls more will be made of it along with assertions that new strains are affecting younger people more.

 

[Freightmaster]

I agree with your sentiments about paying more tax. BUT, there are also 3 million self employed who were excluded from the govt support schemes. They, too, will resent paying more tax when we're out of this mess. There are millions of students racking up student loan debts for accommodation they can't stay in, courses where they've not seen their lecturers in person, etc - they will also resent paying more tax on top of their student loans with its extortionate interest rates. The "only" fair way is some kind of additional tax for those who benefited, i.e. those who were furloughed or the self employed/businesses who did receive support, but that's not going to happen.

That's not actually true - I claimed for and received the SEISS (Self-Employed Income Support Scheme) grants earlier in the year,
and they have to be declared on my tax return for this year, so I will be required to pay 40% of the money back within the
next 18 months, which I must stress that I have no problem with but as mentioned above, it seems rather unfair that those who
were furloughed won't have to do the same.






MARK

 

[Ian Cunningham]

That's not actually true - I claimed for and received the SEISS (Self-Employed Income Support Scheme) grants earlier in the year,
and they have to be declared on my tax return for this year, so I will be required to pay 40% of the money back within the
next 18 months, which I must stress that I have no problem with but as mentioned above, it seems rather unfair that those who
were furloughed won't have to do the same.

MARK

Furlough pay is still taxable as normal (plus NI, pensions etc) - so the treasury will be getting some money back from anyone who was earning over about £16000 per year normally.

The SEISS grants had to be planned and implemented in a realy quick and dirty way. My understanding is that, rather than try and develop a system to determine whether someone was actually impacted and by how much (which would have taken months to implement) a simpler more universal grant was created but made taxable so that there would be automatic clawback of at least some of the grants over time. This would also then both be proportional to the grant amount received and to the amount of work the person was able to do - folk who were pretty much shut down will pay back less, folk who could trade will pay back more


You shouldn't have to pay back 40% of the SEISS grant unless your taxable profit for 20/21 is already over the 40% threshold (£37000 (England & Wales) or £30000 (Scotland)) before you add in the SEISS money

 

[TPO]

The more people who moan that a term is trending, the more it trends. It happens all the time!

That said, I would not be surprised if we do see an announcement soon of a new Tier 5, which is similar to Tier 4, but sees schools shut

I hate to see your words being so prophetic Yorkie but................. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55475240

I am coming to the view is that no "expert" should be allowed to recommend tighter restrictions unless they also will have 50% of their income removed to support those impacted by the restrictions. See how enthusiastic they are then.

The short answer to the question posed by the OP is I think "when the money runs out." Which probably isn't too far away.

TPO

 

[duncanp]

I wouldn't mind placing a bet that restrictions are significantly eased on either March 20th (anniversary of pubs closing) or March 23rd (anniversary of first lockdown).

If restrictions are still in place after then it will speak volumes in terms of the failure of all governments in the UK to control the pandemic.

The second half of March is also when campaigning for the local and national elections will get underway, and no politician will want to have to account for their failure to manage the pandemic to the electorate.

I would still expect some restrictions to remain in place after March, but they would be more in line with what existed this summer. (ie pubs and shops open, but some social distancing and limits on household mixing.)

 

[yorkie]

I wouldn't mind placing a bet that restrictions are significantly eased on either March 20th (anniversary of pubs closing) or March 23rd (anniversary of first lockdown).

If restrictions are still in place after then it will speak volumes in terms of the failure of all governments in the UK to control the pandemic.

The second half of March is also when campaigning for the local and national elections will get underway, and no politician will want to have to account for their failure to manage the pandemic to the electorate.

I would still expect some restrictions to remain in place after March, but they would be more in line with what existed this summer. (ie pubs and shops open, but some social distancing and limits on household mixing.)

agreed

 

[LowLevel]

I wouldn't mind placing a bet that restrictions are significantly eased on either March 20th (anniversary of pubs closing) or March 23rd (anniversary of first lockdown).

If restrictions are still in place after then it will speak volumes in terms of the failure of all governments in the UK to control the pandemic.

The second half of March is also when campaigning for the local and national elections will get underway, and no politician will want to have to account for their failure to manage the pandemic to the electorate.

I would still expect some restrictions to remain in place after March, but they would be more in line with what existed this summer. (ie pubs and shops open, but some social distancing and limits on household mixing.)

With the influence of politics you may be on to something there.

 

[chris11256]

I wouldn't mind placing a bet that restrictions are significantly eased on either March 20th (anniversary of pubs closing) or March 23rd (anniversary of first lockdown).

If restrictions are still in place after then it will speak volumes in terms of the failure of all governments in the UK to control the pandemic.

The second half of March is also when campaigning for the local and national elections will get underway, and no politician will want to have to account for their failure to manage the pandemic to the electorate.

I would still expect some restrictions to remain in place after March, but they would be more in line with what existed this summer. (ie pubs and shops open, but some social distancing and limits on household mixing.)

In terms of political theatre that would make sense and if i'm honest it wouldn't surprise me. Just got to hope that the government doesn't muck up the vaccine rollout!

 

[brad465]

I wouldn't mind placing a bet that restrictions are significantly eased on either March 20th (anniversary of pubs closing) or March 23rd (anniversary of first lockdown).

If restrictions are still in place after then it will speak volumes in terms of the failure of all governments in the UK to control the pandemic.

The second half of March is also when campaigning for the local and national elections will get underway, and no politician will want to have to account for their failure to manage the pandemic to the electorate.

I would still expect some restrictions to remain in place after March, but they would be more in line with what existed this summer. (ie pubs and shops open, but some social distancing and limits on household mixing.)

I suggested something similar in an earlier post, but more on the lines of the mental realisation that life will more or less have been on hold for exactly a year will focus people's minds significantly in the desire to end all this, combined with hopeful progress on the vaccine front. I do agree with the wider political ramifications you suggest.

I also wouldn't mind betting infections are significantly lower by this point anyway, partly because the weather will improve, but also considering how high they are now and have been for a few months, they won't stay high forever and February and March seem like the months they'd most likely drop off.

 

[6Gman]

With masks specifically, I don't think they're likely to catch on here because there aren't that many people advocating for them passionately, and with a few exceptions you rarely see them outside. However, it will be very different in the US, where masks are really more of a political/symbolic thing now. I would expect in American cities, particularly ones which are more inclined towards the Democrats, masks are likely to be the norm long into the future, and possibly permanently.

Nantwich might be the exception! Around 20-30% seem to be wearing them outside.

 

[Class 33]

I posted at the start of this thread - I run a festival - around 10,000 over a weekend. If we aren't back to normal by Easter we won't have much choice but to postpone because our ticket selling window would be too small and there would be too much uncertainty.

We have sold around 25% of our capacity so far having gone on sale on Valentines Day of this year - the sales were flying for three weeks and then we have been impacted by Covid ever since, firstly moving 2020 to 2021 (thankfully we kept all of our artists, but we had to bribe the punters to "keep their ticket" by adding more headliners - that was actually cheaper than having a run on refunds).

I've made a submission to a parliamentary commission on what needs to be done for the sector to come back for 2021 - major concerns are that events will be uninsurable as both venues and promoters will want to be insured against covid risk (and that doesn't exist right now), that social distancing and festivals are not compatible (any social distancing still needed and that's the festival season gone folks - the best we can do is a temperature zap), lack of punter confidence and lack of government support (take a look how many festivals were helped by the turd that was the Culture Recovery Fund - there were about three).

Mine isn't a major festival and we are only in our third year (although we have got 2-3 household names). It costs a six figure sum to put on. If there is ANY remotely significant doubt in March/April we have no choice but to postpone to 2022 on safety, logistical and commercial grounds

And you are right about it being the death knell for so many of these events. I know 2-3 that are clinging on for dear life. We will be OK because the event isn't my day job, but if it was we'd probably have given up by now.

Indeed. If this darn social distancing is still going next summer, this will be next year's festival season a write off too. I am fairly confident that by early to late April, that social distancing will finally be scrapped. But I also have my doubts that the government may keep the ban on mass gatherings still going a month or so beyond that. But we'll have to see what happens. As you say, many festival organisers will have to know for sure by around March/April at the latest as to when the remaining restrictions will definitely be scrapped and whether their festivals can go ahead. I am not so confident that festivals in the early part of the summer(May to late June) will go ahead, but more confident of festivals later in the summer being able to go ahead.

Some here predicting that social distancing restrictions will still be in place until at least the latter part of this year! We just can't keep social distancing going for that long, now that the vaccines are being ramped up! It definitely needs to go by April at the very very latest now. Those people who still want social distancing and face mask wearing to continue forever, well they can do so on their own if they so wish. The large majority of us want to be rid of social distancing and face mask wearing once and for all, so that we can start getting back to normal and on with our lives again.

Good luck with your festival(whichever one it is!). Hope it is able to go ahead, along with many many other festivals next summer!

.........

Front page of today's The Times, reporting freedom by Easter and an accelerated end to social distancing.

Short snippets from that article....

Britain will open up by Easter with approval of the Oxford vaccine allowing an accelerated end to social distancing, Boris Johnson promised last night.

Mr Johnson told a press conference that by Easter "we really are confident that things will be very, very much better. And obviously we will try and bring that date forward as fast as we can. That's why the vaccine rollout is so important.". He added that if it went as hoped "then clearly a lot of the non-pharmaceutical interventions. the closure of hospitality and so fort, will recede into the past.".

Freedom and the end of social distancing by Easter. Let's bloody hope so! It just can't some soon enough. I for one will be glad to well and truly see the back of "social distancing" and "socially distanced"!!!

 

[island]

It‘s not “freedom” until all the face coverings can go in the bin.

 

[52290]

It‘s not “freedom” until all the face coverings can go in the bin.

As opposed to the footpath!

 

[PeterC]

I posted at the start of this thread - I run a festival - around 10,000 over a weekend. If we aren't back to normal by Easter we won't have much choice but to postpone because our ticket selling window would be too small and there would be too much uncertainty.

We have sold around 25% of our capacity so far having gone on sale on Valentines Day of this year - the sales were flying for three weeks and then we have been impacted by Covid ever since, firstly moving 2020 to 2021 (thankfully we kept all of our artists, but we had to bribe the punters to "keep their ticket" by adding more headliners - that was actually cheaper than having a run on refunds).

I've made a submission to a parliamentary commission on what needs to be done for the sector to come back for 2021 - major concerns are that events will be uninsurable as both venues and promoters will want to be insured against covid risk (and that doesn't exist right now), that social distancing and festivals are not compatible (any social distancing still needed and that's the festival season gone folks - the best we can do is a temperature zap), lack of punter confidence and lack of government support (take a look how many festivals were helped by the turd that was the Culture Recovery Fund - there were about three).

Mine isn't a major festival and we are only in our third year (although we have got 2-3 household names). It costs a six figure sum to put on. If there is ANY remotely significant doubt in March/April we have no choice but to postpone to 2022 on safety, logistical and commercial grounds

And you are right about it being the death knell for so many of these events. I know 2-3 that are clinging on for dear life. We will be OK because the event isn't my day job, but if it was we'd probably have given up by now.

I retired from editing a specialist music magazine just before everything started going pear shaped at the beginning of the year so I have not been seeing all the press releases but I know of 2021 festivals cancelling already. Some more specialist small events are putting off the go/no-go decision until Easter.

 

[C J Snarzell]

I retired from editing a specialist music magazine just before everything started going pear shaped at the beginning of the year so I have not been seeing all the press releases but I know of 2021 festivals cancelling already. Some more specialist small events are putting off the go/no-go decision until Easter.

I assume big festivals like Glastonbury & Parklife are under threat of being cancelled again.

A distant friend and his partner had Glastonbury tickets for 2020, which have been honoured for 2021 but its likely they will roll them over again until 2022.

CJ

 

[GrahamD83]

What worries me is no matter what effect the vaccine rollout starts to have on the number of cases, hospital admissions and deaths over the next few months, we are still going to have all the 'Scientists' and 'Experts' from SAGE claiming not enough is being done to slow the spread.

The current Daily Mail headline makes very grim reading, claiming the cycle of lockdowns will continue into the summer, and calls to extend mandatory mask wearing and bring back the hard 2m distance rule.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...-style-lockdown-not-contain-mutant-Covid.html

 

[chris11256]

I think it depends. The main impact we'd see would be a reduction in hospital admissions and deaths, not necessarily cases. Pending info on the vaccine stopping transmissions, we'd be in the situation where large numbers of cases translate to very few hospital admissions/deaths.

This is why restriction easing post vaccination of the vulnerable is a political risk issue, rather than a scientific problem. The vulnerable being vaccinated would upend the current thinking of cases = very bad as hospitals are overwhelmed and many people die, as that simply wouldn't be happening. So the risk of removing non pharmaceutical interventions(quoting Boris) would be much lower as you'd have much lower levels of hospitalisation & deaths.

But I do think that the Government should throw everything at vaccinating people as fast as possible.

 

[Luke McDonnell]

I have adapted to the restrictions very well considering I am on the autistic spectrum and I do not cope with change very well. I have adapted very well to working from home for instance. In March I was very anxious for a period of time as all this was new and the prospects of being isolated physically from my friends was very difficult especially with restrictions unprecedented in my lifetime coming into effect at short notice. But now, as we enter a new year I really want to see the light at the end of the tunnel. I want to be in a situation that by Spring - March or April at the very latest we have no draconian restrictions on meeting with friends or families indoors. On masks, I might be able to tolerate them a bit longer as I have got used to wearing masks in areas where they are required but do you think I will be in a situation were I can go and visit my friend who I used to see every week (travelling by train) again legally by March or at the very latest April. My Mum (and his Mum) should have had their vaccines by then but I really want something to look forward too for this year ahead especially considering we have had more negative news with 50K cases and nearly 1000 deaths - will things get a lot better in the new year? I think they will but there is a lot of negative news online still - even now I read a post on another thread saying that the approved vaccine regimen may not be effective? What are they going on about I know it is very likely to be incorrect but because of my condition I often find it too easy to be sucked in by negative comments by someone on an internet forum

 

[island]

I assume big festivals like Glastonbury & Parklife are under threat of being cancelled again.

A distant friend and his partner had Glastonbury tickets for 2020, which have been honoured for 2021 but its likely they will roll them over again until 2022.

CJ

Glastonbury said they wouldn’t be able to go ahead this year without government underwriting their insurance cover. They do not hold much in terms of reserves (as it’s donated to charity each year) and say they would be wiped out if they spent their usual sums preparing the festival and had to cancel without getting them back.

Given the attitude the promoters and the festival have historically displayed towards the government, I suspect their request for underwriting will have received a two-word answer.

 

[bramling]

Nantwich might be the exception! Around 20-30% seem to be wearing them outside.

Round my way I’ve noticed a lot more people wearing them outside in the last month or so, right down to on footpaths in the countryside, and when in a car on their own.

 

[chris11256]

To be fair, it does help keep your face warm in the cold!

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Freedom and the end of social distancing by Easter. Let's bloody hope so! It just can't some soon enough. I for one will be glad to well and truly see the back of "social distancing" and "socially distanced"!!!

As Johnson has promised this in his latest Covid briefing speech its highly unlikely to happen like all the other time hes over promised and under delivered.

There isn't enough vaccine being produce to get anywhere near the numbers required by Easter 21 but im not convinced this matters as by April the longer days and warmer weather will suppress transmission naturally like it does for all respiratory viruses every year. They will of course claim its because of the lockdowns and the rollout of the vaccine but the real test will be this Autumn and whether cases increase again or not.

What MPs need to press for before 27th Jan vote on these restrictions is why govt isn't applying the criteria its said it would about how areas move up and down a tier. If they refuse to make it a legally a part of the regulations then MPs should vote down an extension anything less is acquiescing to this country heading down the road of a dictatorship. Starmer also needs to start pushing the civil liberties narrative a lot more and less of the I told you so narrative which gets him absolutely nowhere with Johnson at PMQs - this is his forte after all from he days as a QC.

 

[PeterC]

Round my way I’ve noticed a lot more people wearing them outside in the last month or so, right down to on footpaths in the countryside, and when in a car on their own.

In the queue outside my local supermarket just before Christmas most people were masked despite maintaining proper distancing. My understanding was that masks provided a level of risk mitigation (not protection) if worn for a short period.

The silliest that I have seen is the couple who drove up to the supermarket wearing masks inside their car and then proceeded to take an unsanitised trolley from the car park. The risks from the trolley would be trivial but still greater than from catching covid inside your own car.

 

[Philip]

If 2 million vaccines per week are being given in another couple of weeks or so, then I don't see why we should be looking to Easter before things really improve. If it's going as well as hoped then about 7-8 million people should be vaccinated by the end of this month, make that about 15-16 million by the end of February. That along with those who already have immunity should see a big percentage of the people who are vulnerable protected by then, and so this should in turn see hospital admissions drop considerably which is the measure for restrictions. Really, if vaccination progresses as hoped then even by the end of this month the pressure should have eased quite a bit on the NHS, to the point where restrictions might start to be eased in February.

Easter is 3 months away, I don't know why there is this rhetoric by the media and by Johnson about things getting back to normal by then, it should be a progressive return to 'normal', starting imminently after vaccines start to have a positive effect on hospital admissions.

 

[C J Snarzell]

To prolong the restrictions beyond April would be complete and utter madness. All that will happen is that the NHS and emergency services will start to get flooded with the rise in mental health and drug/alcohol misuse.

The Scientist have never at any stage throughout all this given any consideration to the other important issues that are the 'fallout' from the tier restrictions. Cancer treatment is another issue relegated to the subs bench.

CJ

 

[Darandio]

If 2 million vaccines per week are being given in another couple of weeks or so, then I don't see why we should be looking to Easter before things really improve.

I'm not sure there is the capability to produce that much per week, never mind administer it.

 

[Philip]

I'm not sure there is the capability to produce that much per week, never mind administer it.

The BBC news article said that the hope is to give 2 million per week soon after the Oxford one is rolled out.

 

[Solent&Wessex]

The BBC news article said that the hope is to give 2 million per week soon after the Oxford one is rolled out.

That may be the hope, but there are only circa 500,000 Oxford vaccines available next week and whenever they (Ministers and the various officers like JVT) are quizzed about the delivery and / or vaccination schedule they just say "we will have millions of doses a week by March".

Millions of doses a week by March means, immunity won't be conferred on those vaccinated in March till April. That is cutting it very fine for significant normality by Easter in early April.

 

[LowLevel]

Round my way I’ve noticed a lot more people wearing them outside in the last month or so, right down to on footpaths in the countryside, and when in a car on their own.

It's cold. Seems obvious enough to me! If you were going to wear a scarf or a mask that you're comfortable enough with you may as well do the latter.

This last week I've taken to wearing mine in the car on the way to work because I've been leaving home at 3am, it has been freezing while I chip ice off the car and driving a fairly basic vehicle it has hardly warmed up during my 25 minute drive.

My employer mandates face coverings in public areas so I have to wear it when I arrive anyway.

I also don't bother taking it off when popping in and out of the shop.

It's actually less itchy than a scarf and quite nice and cosy.

Different ballgame to a hot summer's day!