Whither XC after HS2?

[JonathanH]

If capacity is an issue, the local service on the Cross City line could be permanently reduced from 6tph to 4tph with 2tph to Bromsgrove and Redditch each. Alternatively, all Cross City local services could go to Redditch since Bromsgrove would see a greatly improved service with trains from Cardiff and Bristol calling there.

This has been raised by another poster. Are we really in the thrall of cutting local services to make way for longer distance ones? Which option encourages the most modal shift?

My proposal is for this to replace the existing GWR service between Bristol and Worcester, and hence this would be the only service calling at Ashchurch for Tewkesbury.

I'm not sure who benefits from a train between Bristol and Birmingham that reverses at Gloucester and uses the Worcester loop. It would be horrendous to path because it needs to slot in front of and then behind another train on the route. Separate Bristol to Worcester and Hereford to Birmingham services are better. It just isn't worth trying to link this up because it doesn't create a large number of journey options that aren't otherwise available.

It's probably better to keep reversing at Derby as otherwise that city would only be left with 1tph direct to Nottingham. Also maintains the link between Wilnecote/Willington and Derby.

There are other routes that link Derby and Nottingham - not just Cross Country.

 

[PTR 444]

This has been raised by another poster. Are we really in the thrall of cutting local services to make way for longer distance ones? Which option encourages the most modal shift?

It's difficult when you're trying not to cut back 6tph local services on the Cross City line but at the same time try and improve frequencies to Hereford, Bristol and Cardiff. An idea to get around this issue could be to extend Bromsgrove terminators to Worcester and Hereford. It would provide a greatly improved service with no additional paths, but would require electrification to Hereford and I don't know how the locals on the line would feel about having a slower service to Birmingham, even if it was far more frequent.

I'm not sure who benefits from a train between Bristol and Birmingham that reverses at Gloucester and uses the Worcester loop. It would be horrendous to path because it needs to slot in front of and then behind another train on the route. Separate Bristol to Worcester and Hereford to Birmingham services are better. It just isn't worth trying to link this up because it doesn't create a large number of journey options that aren't otherwise available.

Now you have said it, I think it would be a challenge to path especially when we are trying to make rail services more takt-like. I think it is a good idea though to provide local passengers in Gloucestershire with better access to the West Midlands.

There are other routes that link Derby and Nottingham - not just Cross Country.

Currently there is only 1tph between Derby and Nottingham which isn't XC, and that is the Matlock to Newark service. Assuming this remains post-HS2, it would most likely be joined by a diversion of the Norwich-Liverpool service to Derby, but that would still be 1tph short compared to today (pre-covid). To make it up, I guess you could extend Derby-Crewe to Nottingham, Skegness-Nottingham to Derby or even better, join the two together.

 

[JonathanH]

I think it is a good idea though to provide local passengers in Gloucestershire with better access to the West Midlands.

Yes, by changing trains at Cheltenham. No one in Yate expects a direct train to Birmingham that goes via Gloucester and Worcester stopping everywhere.

London Midland tried to run to Gloucester and soon stopped doing so.

 

[Class172]

If capacity is an issue, the local service on the Cross City line could be permanently reduced from 6tph to 4tph with 2tph to Bromsgrove and Redditch each. Alternatively, all Cross City local services could go to Redditch since Bromsgrove would see a greatly improved service with trains from Cardiff and Bristol calling there.

I don’t think the infrastructure would allow any more than 3tph to Redditch if you diverted away the Bromsgrove terminators. It’s a single line branch with a passing loop at Alvechurch.

London Midland tried to run to Gloucester and soon stopped doing so.

If I recall however it wasn’t exactly the best timed service with respect to the existing GWR service. It definitely didn’t provide a consistent hourly interval which is why it was never popular. There is demand along the Worcester-Cheltenham axis for an improved frequency but timetabling would need to be improved.

 

[The Planner]

I don’t think the infrastructure would allow any more than 3tph to Redditch if you diverted away the Bromsgrove terminators. It’s a single line branch with a passing loop at Alvechurch.

Correct, it wouldn't work.

 

[JamesRowden]

HS2 will cater for some existing Crosscountry service demand, but makes no difference on many existing journeys in/out/through Birmingham. There will be a similar situation at other points where it meets the HS2 network. Crosscountry acts as the principle express service along many of its corridors, and significant locations along these corridors will not gain a HS2 service to other not significantly far away significant locations.

I would think, that with regards to the existing Manchester, Edinburgh, Plymouth and Bournemouth network, the regular service should at least run through to a point on the West Coast Mainline, Doncaster, Taunton and Basingstoke which, post HS2, could all potentially have frequent express services to significant end locations of interest. I think that there should be at least an every 30 minutes Crosscountry service to these nodes to provide connectivity (although parts of services could be transferred to other operators if better overall, if TOCs as we know them still exist at this future point in time). I do not think there will be a need to run via the Leeds detour since this demand can be effectively served by HS2, frequent Midland Mainline services between Leeds and London or Nottingham, and Transpennine Express.

The setup of the Crosscountry service pattern beyond the West Coast Mainline connection, Doncaster, Taunton and Basingstoke will need to be determined considering, or in conjunction with, the connecting services on those main lines, in order to create the optimum compromise between costs and journey opportunities for passengers.

 

[Purple Orange]

HS2 will cater for some existing Crosscountry service demand, but makes no difference on many existing journeys in/out/through Birmingham. There will be a similar situation at other points where it meets the HS2 network. Crosscountry acts as the principle express service along many of its corridors, and significant locations along these corridors will not gain a HS2 service to other not significantly far away significant locations.

I would think, that with regards to the existing Manchester, Edinburgh, Plymouth and Bournemouth network, the regular service should at least run through to a point on the West Coast Mainline, Doncaster, Taunton and Basingstoke which, post HS2, could all potentially have frequent express services to significant end locations of interest. I think that there should be at least an every 30 minutes Crosscountry service to these nodes to provide connectivity (although parts of services could be transferred to other operators if better overall, if TOCs as we know them still exist at this future point in time). I do not think there will be a need to run via the Leeds detour since this demand can be effectively served by HS2, frequent Midland Mainline services between Leeds and London or Nottingham, and Transpennine Express.

The setup of the Crosscountry service pattern beyond the West Coast Mainline connection, Doncaster, Taunton and Basingstoke will need to be determined considering, or in conjunction with, the connecting services on those main lines, in order to create the optimum compromise between costs and journey opportunities for passengers.

The north of Birmingham Crisd Country routes should be overhauled post HS2 - keep going the current service pattern is a waste of paths and capacity. The question in my mind is how do you satisfy the following routes?

1. WCML Route: Wolverhampton, Stafford, Stoke & Macclesfield to Manchester & Birmingham
2. MML Route: Tamworth, Burton, Derby, Chesterfield, Sheffield, Wakefield to Leeds & Birmingham

Not each of those towns/cities need the same service level to Birmingham and Leeds & Manchester. Also we may not have the full eastern branch which complicates the issue, however we could have the following services in place post HS2 running on the existing network:

• London, OOC, Stafford, Stoke, Macclesfield. I think this train should really continue to Stockport & Manchester.
• There will likely be 1 tph between London & Manchester via Stoke on the WCML providing connectivity to Milton Keynes, Watford & Rugby
• Coventry will still want a fast WCML service to London, therefore it makes sense for this service to continue to Wolverhampton.
• There is an opportunity to combine issue 2 & 3 in to one service.
• LNW will continue with WCML services between London, Birmingham, Crewe, Stoke and Liverpool. Perhaps the Birmingham-Liverpool model should be adopted for Birmingham-Manchester?

So what could be done?

1. If the eastern branch is not built in full, I’d say continue with XC via Sheffield as it is but terminate at York, Doncaster or even Scarborough or Middlesbrough.
2. If just the western branch is built and Trans Pennine Route Upgrade, Leeds/York/Newcastle to Birmingham will be better via Manchester HS2 to Curzon Street using 200m 8-car EMUs.
3. A combination of a 1 tph Manchester-Macclesfield-London HS2 service, a Manchester-Birmingham-London WCML service and a Manchester-Bristol XC service could facilitate an additional 1-2 stopping tph in to Birmingham & Manchester.

 

[adrock1976]

The north of Birmingham Crisd Country routes should be overhauled post HS2 - keep going the current service pattern is a waste of paths and capacity. The question in my mind is how do you satisfy the following routes?

1. WCML Route: Wolverhampton, Stafford, Stoke & Macclesfield to Manchester & Birmingham
2. MML Route: Tamworth, Burton, Derby, Chesterfield, Sheffield, Wakefield to Leeds & Birmingham

Not each of those towns/cities need the same service level to Birmingham and Leeds & Manchester. Also we may not have the full eastern branch which complicates the issue, however we could have the following services in place post HS2 running on the existing network:

• London, OOC, Stafford, Stoke, Macclesfield. I think this train should really continue to Stockport & Manchester.
• There will likely be 1 tph between London & Manchester via Stoke on the WCML providing connectivity to Milton Keynes, Watford & Rugby
• Coventry will still want a fast WCML service to London, therefore it makes sense for this service to continue to Wolverhampton.
• There is an opportunity to combine issue 2 & 3 in to one service.
• LNW will continue with WCML services between London, Birmingham, Crewe, Stoke and Liverpool. Perhaps the Birmingham-Liverpool model should be adopted for Birmingham-Manchester?

So what could be done?

1. If the eastern branch is not built in full, I’d say continue with XC via Sheffield as it is but terminate at York, Doncaster or even Scarborough or Middlesbrough.
2. If just the western branch is built and Trans Pennine Route Upgrade, Leeds/York/Newcastle to Birmingham will be better via Manchester HS2 to Curzon Street using 200m 8-car EMUs.
3. A combination of a 1 tph Manchester-Macclesfield-London HS2 service, a Manchester-Birmingham-London WCML service and a Manchester-Bristol XC service could facilitate an additional 1-2 stopping tph in to Birmingham & Manchester.

Is the HS2 spur connection to the ex Trent Valley near Lichfield still going ahead?

I was under the impression that had been dropped.

 

[Purple Orange]

Is the HS2 spur connection to the ex Trent Valley near Lichfield still going ahead?

I was under the impression that had been dropped.

If that is the spur that enables HS2 services to the north west to switch back on to the WCML, then I’d have thought so, otherwise how do they enable the proposed service patterns?

 

[Bald Rick]

Is the HS2 spur connection to the ex Trent Valley near Lichfield still going ahead?

I was under the impression that had been dropped.

If you mean the connection at Handsacre, yes it is happening, albeit in modified form.

 

[adrock1976]

If that is the spur that enables HS2 services to the north west to switch back on to the WCML, then I’d have thought so, otherwise how do they enable the proposed service patterns?

If you mean the connection at Handsacre, yes it is happening, albeit in modified form.

Many thanks.

 

[The Planner]

Is the HS2 spur connection to the ex Trent Valley near Lichfield still going ahead?

I was under the impression that had been dropped.

No, its still there, connection on/off the slow lines.

 

[greatvoyager]

The only thing that I would be reluctant about is changing trains. A few times I’ve missed a connection when my original train has been late.

 

[HSTEd]

The only thing that I would be reluctant about is changing trains. A few times I’ve missed a connection when my original train has been late.

Ultimately the best way the railway can counter this problem is by moving towards simpler, higher intensity timetables.

A missed connection with the Overground, as an example, is a minor inconvenient that will result in only a few minutes of additional delay.

Missing a 1tpd per connection is obviously a disaster.

 

[Purple Orange]

The only thing that I would be reluctant about is changing trains. A few times I’ve missed a connection when my original train has been late.

How would you travel to Liverpool from Exeter? Or would you not bother?

 

[greatvoyager]

How would you travel to Liverpool from Exeter? Or would you not bother?

That’s a journey that I’ve not had to do, I only really need trains to Birmingham, Sheffield and York, which fortunately I can catch direct.

 

[Purple Orange]

That’s a journey that I’ve not had to do, I only really need trains to Birmingham, Sheffield and York, which fortunately I can catch direct.

Well it is a hypothetical question: if you had to travel to Liverpool, how would you do it?

However, if Birmingham, Sheffield & York is all you need then you, as an individual, do not need a Manchester service. In all likelihood I’d have thought there would be a South-West to North East XC service post HS2, at least as far as York,

I’ve done Manchester - Plymouth twice in the last 10 years. The first time I took the train down and I hated it. Slow and being cooked up on a 4-car voyager sent me around the bend. The second time I opted to fly to Exeter and then the train to Plymouth, principally because the train couldn’t get me to Plymouth when I needed to, without spending an additional night in a hotel.

In short, if I was doing that journey again, I’d be glad of the HS2 service to get me as far as Birmingham in half the time and ideally connect at Moor Street for the onward journey.

 

[greatvoyager]

Well it is a hypothetical question: if you had to travel to Liverpool, how would you do it?

It would depend on where a change could be made. For example somewhere like Stafford would be easier than Birmingham in the current scheme, but if it changes, I’m not sure.

 

[Purple Orange]

It would depend on where a change could be made. For example somewhere like Stafford would be easier than Birmingham in the current scheme, but if it changes, I’m not sure.

So you’d make the change given that is the route to Liverpool. So therefore, what if the route to Manchester or Leeds became Exeter to Birmingham Moor Street, then Birmingham Curzon Street to Manchester or Leeds?

 

[greatvoyager]

So you’d make the change given that is the route to Liverpool. So therefore, what if the route to Manchester or Leeds became Exeter to Birmingham Moor Street, then Birmingham Curzon Street to Manchester or Leeds?

Hmm... I’m not really sure to be honest.

 

[Purple Orange]

Hmm... I’m not really sure to be honest.

Essentially it doesn’t really matter if the south west is connected to any specific point north of Birmingham. Yet if you’re going to make it a through service, it may as well be to a destination that is not duplicated by HS2.

Plymouth to any of Liverpool, Hull via Doncaster or Leicester has greater benefit with respect to connectivity than continuing with a service to Manchester or Newcastle/Edinburgh via Leeds.

 

[adrock1976]

Essentially it doesn’t really matter if the south west is connected to any specific point north of Birmingham. Yet if you’re going to make it a through service, it may as well be to a destination that is not duplicated by HS2.

Plymouth to any of Liverpool, Hull via Doncaster or Leicester has greater benefit with respect to connectivity than continuing with a service to Manchester or Newcastle/Edinburgh via Leeds.

Regarding Plymouth - Liverpool, do you envisage or would like the route to go via Severn Tunnel Junction > Hereford> Shrewsbury> Crewe then onwards to Liverpool?

That way, both the county towns of Herefordshire and Shropshire would have a direct train to England's fourth largest city, being as HS2 does not serve or call at Hereford or Shrewsbury.

 

[greatvoyager]

Essentially it doesn’t really matter if the south west is connected to any specific point north of Birmingham. Yet if you’re going to make it a through service, it may as well be to a destination that is not duplicated by HS2.

Plymouth to any of Liverpool, Hull via Doncaster or Leicester has greater benefit with respect to connectivity than continuing with a service to Manchester or Newcastle/Edinburgh via Leeds.

The way things are going, although I don’t really want too much to change, I can see XC being abandoned and the routes being split and transferred to other operators.

 

[Purple Orange]

Regarding Plymouth - Liverpool, do you envisage or would like the route to go via Severn Tunnel Junction > Hereford> Shrewsbury> Crewe then onwards to Liverpool?

That way, both the county towns of Herefordshire and Shropshire would have a direct train to England's fourth largest city, being as HS2 does not serve or call at Hereford or Shrewsbury.

I’d have thought Merseyside would want as fast as possible a connection to Birmingham, then on to Reading or Bristol.

The way things are going, although I don’t really want too much to change, I can see XC being abandoned and the routes being split and transferred to other operators.

Quite possibly. If Midlands Engine Rail comes off (which appears to be the banner under which the south-west to Birmingham and onwards appears to be sitting), there may be a specific franchise name there with various operators taking on the contract.

 

[Gareth]

I’d have thought Merseyside would want as fast as possible a connection to Birmingham, then on to Reading or Bristol.

Or even a proper HS2 service. Imagine that.

 

[cle]

Essentially it doesn’t really matter if the south west is connected to any specific point north of Birmingham. Yet if you’re going to make it a through service, it may as well be to a destination that is not duplicated by HS2.

Plymouth to any of Liverpool, Hull via Doncaster or Leicester has greater benefit with respect to connectivity than continuing with a service to Manchester or Newcastle/Edinburgh via Leeds.

I would say Manchester has more demand than anywhere else. And can justify a direct service to Bristol. And Reading/Oxford for that matter.

After that, it would be Leeds specifically - but moreso because Leeds mops up Derby and Sheffield demand also. But yes, beyond that, I agree that the other side destinations don't matter so much as it's all distilled.

Perfect example from today - Nottingham to Cardiff itself is arbitrary. It works but end to end demand I imagine is trivial.

 

[Purple Orange]

Or even a proper HS2 service. Imagine that.

Liverpool is getting a HS2 service. Is it that you want a new line to a new station too? Surely that is the NPR proposal, so Liverpool may get it all.

I would say Manchester has more demand than anywhere else. And can justify a direct service to Bristol. And Reading/Oxford for that matter.

After that, it would be Leeds specifically - but moreso because Leeds mops up Derby and Sheffield demand also. But yes, beyond that, I agree that the other side destinations don't matter so much as it's all distilled.

Perfect example from today - Nottingham to Cardiff itself is arbitrary. It works but end to end demand I imagine is trivial.

For what purpose would 2 tph XC Manchester-Birmingham-Bristol/Reading service be viable? The Manchester-Birmingham leg via Stoke wouldn’t need more than 1 tph, so you then need to pick a destination between Reading & Bristol. The other path must (and I can’t stress that more), be given to stopping services in to Manchester & Birmingham to tackle the huge suppressed demand and seek to reduce car dependency. Keeping 2 tph on the WCML between Birmingham & Manchester would just be carrying fresh air on the whole, while millions of journeys are made by car in parallel.

 

[Gareth]

Liverpool is getting a HS2 service. Is it that you want a new line to a new station too? Surely that is the NPR proposal, so Liverpool may get it all.

We're talking about Birmingham & XC, right? It's currently assumed by most that there'll be no Birmingham-Liverpool HS2 services, including yourself, seen as that's why your proposing Liverpool as a through destination to the South West after HS2 is built.

Also, you have no more belief in the NPR stuff happening than I have.

 

[Purple Orange]

We're talking about Birmingham & XC, right? It's currently assumed by most that there'll be no Birmingham-Liverpool HS2 services, including yourself, seen as that's why your proposing Liverpool as a through destination to the South West after HS2 is built.

Also, you have no more believe in the NPR stuff happening than I have.

Yes we are but if Liverpool really wants it to happen (the NPR/HS2 link) it needs to push for it. If the link is there, there could well be a Liverpool-Birmingham HS2 service.

Personally I see it as unlikely and nothing will be built in to Liverpool at all, but the city region needs to put the case forward. If it gets it, then I’d say there would be no need for through XC services to Liverpool on the WCML and send the service elsewhere instead.

 

[Gareth]

There could be a Liverpool-Birmingham HS2 anyway, even with the planned "do nothing in Liverpool" HS2 scenario. But, for whatever reason, the assumption is that there wont be.