Will people go back to normal after a vaccine?

[Islineclear3_1]

Most of them were already in a reasonably finished state back in April/May, some samples of the mRNA ones were done within a couple weeks of the genetic code being published. The rest of this time has been spent checking efficacy and safety. The regulators and companies have moved swiftly, mostly due to the record level of private and public sector investment and resources dedicated to the task. Every hoop has been jumped through though, and I'm confident that they have a good, safe offering.

Could you provide a link/source for this please

 

[david1212]

Even with today's excellent news that the vaccine has started to be rolled out, Patrick Vallance now saying face masks may be needed for another year yet!!!

COVID-19 vaccine: Chief scientific adviser urges public to stick to social distancing rules during vaccine rollout

Sir Patrick Vallance says masks could still be needed for some time because it is unclear if the vaccine prevents transmission.

news.sky.com

Another year or more into next Winter of having to wear face masks??!! You must be absolutely joking!!!! Now that this vaccine is being rolled out and by March/April the situation should be much much better than it is now, we then need to start getting back to normal pretty fast. Wearing horrible face masks in shops, in cinemas/theatres, museums, etc and on public transport is far from normal!! By April there will be simply no need for face masks! Though people who want to continue wearing them could do so if they wish. The vast majority of us want to stop having to wear these things as soon as possible. If face mask wearing requirements is still dragging on past the end of March, it will be absolutely ridiculous.

It's debatable whether these things actually stop the virus anyway. Because the requirements to wear them on public transport and in shops etc were brought in at a time when at that point the first wave of the virus was in decline anyway. And then once the second wave started in September, face mask wearing didn't stop infections from surging! So what evidence is there that these things actually prevent spread of the virus?

Vallance may well say we still have to wear face masks for another year or more yet, but Johnson doesn't have to do what Vallance says! Hopefully he will see sense and scrap face mask requirements by April.

Lets remember it was him that said the evidence regarding face coverings is "quite variable, quite weak"...

And neither he nor anyone else has since produced any evidence to counteract that! We are all just expected to accept it now as a matter of "fact" that masks are effective.

Just what I did NOT want to hear or read.

We all know it will take a while to vaccinate virtually all of the vulnerable and a good proportion of the rest of the population. I was though hoping to be able to travel by train again by June. There is no way I will travel for pleasure / leisure and for a couple of hours let alone an all day railtour wearing a face covering / mask / muzzle. While I think any benefit is very marginal as relatively this would be greatest in enclosed crowded places I would tolerate them on London Underground as my journeys would only be short.

 

[Richard Scott]

Just what I did NOT want to hear or read.

We all know it will take a while to vaccinate virtually all of the vulnerable and a good proportion of the rest of the population. I was though hoping to be able to travel by train again by June. There is no way I will travel for pleasure / leisure and for a couple of hours let alone an all day railtour wearing a face covering / mask / muzzle. While I think any benefit is very marginal as relatively this would be greatest in enclosed crowded places I would tolerate them on London Underground as my journeys would only be short.

No, exactly and I wish Vallence would back up his ideas with some hard scientific facts rather than pluck nonsense from thin air. He's supposed to be an intelligent individual but afraid I find him worryingly lacking.

 

[Ashley Hill]

Has anyone claimed how long the vaccine remains effective? Is it one shot for life or will it become an annual event like the flu jab. Perhaps they'll be combined in the future.

 

[Darandio]

Has anyone claimed how long the vaccine remains effective? Is it one shot for life or will it become an annual event like the flu jab. Perhaps they'll be combined in the future.

I'm fairly sure they have no firm idea at this point. Certainly in the case of the Oxford vaccine they were confident it was effective for at least 56 days, but that period of research ended at that point.

 

[duncanp]

Just what I did NOT want to hear or read.

We all know it will take a while to vaccinate virtually all of the vulnerable and a good proportion of the rest of the population. I was though hoping to be able to travel by train again by June. There is no way I will travel for pleasure / leisure and for a couple of hours let alone an all day railtour wearing a face covering / mask / muzzle. While I think any benefit is very marginal as relatively this would be greatest in enclosed crowded places I would tolerate them on London Underground as my journeys would only be short.

I think that once most of the vulnerable people plus a good percentage of the rest of the population have been vaccinated, then restrictions will start to be lifted, if only because the economic effects of COVID-19 will become too great to ignore.

The fact that there are local and national elections at the beginning of May will also have an impact, because if there are still substantial restrictions in place on election day, the parties in power in the various nations and regions will get a right good kicking at the ballot box.

Vaccination does not prevent you from catching the virus anymore than wearing a seat belt prevents you from being in a road traffic accident.

What vaccination does do is reduce the effect of COVID-19 to a manageable level, so that it becomes like seasonal flu.

After all, we have a vaccination against flu, but it does not stop people from catching flu or dying from it.

 

[Jozhua]

Could you provide a link/source for this please

Reuters | Breaking International News & Views

Find latest news from every corner of the globe at Reuters.com, your online source for breaking international news coverage.

uk.reuters.com

End of January was when the genetic code was published, March is when vaccine trials started. So just over a month.

Vaccination does not prevent you from catching the virus anymore than wearing a seat belt prevents you from being in a road traffic accident.

What vaccination does do is reduce the effect of COVID-19 to a manageable level, so that it becomes like seasonal flu.

After all, we have a vaccination against flu, but it does not stop people from catching flu or dying from it.

I don't think that's completely true. The antibodies you create will stop the infection from developing in the first place.

The reason the flu Vaccine doesn't stop the flu, is that not that many people get it. However, I think that may change in future years. I got the flu vaccine this year, and plan to do so going forward.

 

[duncanp]

I don't think that's completely true. The antibodies you create will stop the infection from developing in the first place.

The reason the flu Vaccine doesn't stop the flu, is that not that many people get it. However, I think that may change in future years. I got the flu vaccine this year, and plan to do so going forward.

Point taken.

But a vaccination will reduce the effect of COVID-19 to a manageable level, both by increasing the body's ability to fight the infection, and by limiting the severity of the infection in the first place.

It is unrealistic to try and pretend that we can eliminate COVID-19, at least in the short term.

 

[Spartacus]

I think that once most of the vulnerable people plus a good percentage of the rest of the population have been vaccinated, then restrictions will start to be lifted, if only because the economic effects of COVID-19 will become too great to ignore.

The fact that there are local and national elections at the beginning of May will also have an impact, because if there are still substantial restrictions in place on election day, the parties in power in the various nations and regions will get a right good kicking at the ballot box.

I'm expecting things to be lifted near the end of March. It'll be a year since the introduction of lockdown laws (carrying on much past that would be political suicide even without an election coming up), and will also be around the time electioneering would begin to ramp up. That's not to say there won't be any restrictions after that point, but I expect them to be mostly restricted to private venue's own rules. Travelling to where you want, whenever you want, seeing who you want, and going out for a pint without problems, all back on the agenda.

 

[Domh245]

I don't think that's completely true. The antibodies you create will stop the infection from developing in the first place.

The reason the flu Vaccine doesn't stop the flu, is that not that many people get it. However, I think that may change in future years. I got the flu vaccine this year, and plan to do so going forward.

Not so - antibodies (amongst the other immune responses) just means that the body can fight the infection off far quicker and more effectively. You still get infected, just for a much shorter length of time and with hopefully considerably fewer symptoms as your body fights the infection

That few people are vaccinated is part of the the reason that it continues to spread - other reasons include that the vaccine (as currently used) being non sterilising, and not necessarily effective if they've picked the wrong 'cocktail' of vaccines to use this year to fight against the prevailing strains.

 

[High Dyke]

To answer the title of the thread. There probably won't be much change, from normal. The world will still contain bigoted idiots, people that are abused, incompetent politicians and social injustice.

 

[Jonny]

Once those who have taken the vaccine for its personal peace-of-mind effects have done so, there should be a massive drop in the fatality rates (both overall/pro capita and as a proportion of cases) and so it will either be easier to return to normal or will seem to be more about control.

 

[LAX54]

Just what I did NOT want to hear or read.

We all know it will take a while to vaccinate virtually all of the vulnerable and a good proportion of the rest of the population. I was though hoping to be able to travel by train again by June. There is no way I will travel for pleasure / leisure and for a couple of hours let alone an all day railtour wearing a face covering / mask / muzzle. While I think any benefit is very marginal as relatively this would be greatest in enclosed crowded places I would tolerate them on London Underground as my journeys would only be short.

On Jeremy Vine this morning, the red headed Doctor he has on, also said that masks will have to be worn for another year, as they will still not know if someone is Asymptomatic and carrying C19 even after the jab ! talk about making everyone depressed !
And of course after the most recent lockdown, there will be of course another one in Jan....as it has had time to regain strength !

 

[Islineclear3_1]

The reason the flu Vaccine doesn't stop the flu, is that not that many people get it. However, I think that may change in future years. I got the flu vaccine this year, and plan to do so going forward.

The seasonal flu vaccine is usually based upon a predicted strain but often covers last year's strain

It is never guaranteed to prevent the flu; at best it might lessen its effects

From what I see first hand however, all of my colleagues who get the flu jab get the flu....

 

[MikeWM]

On Jeremy Vine this morning, the red headed Doctor he has on, also said that masks will have to be worn for another year, as they will still not know if someone is Asymptomatic and carrying C19 even after the jab ! talk about making everyone depressed !

We really do have to start to realise that there are a lot of people out there, for whatever reason, that want this tripe to go on and on and on. And unless those opposed to it get better at pushing back, there's no reason to expect it won't go on and on.

 

[trebor79]

The reason the flu Vaccine doesn't stop the flu, is that not that many people get it. However, I think that may change in future years. I got the flu vaccine this year, and plan to do so going forward.

The reason the flu vaccine doesn't "stop" flu is because there are many different strains of flu, and they mutate very quickly due to the way the flu virus replicates itself. The vaccine is reformulated each year to target a few flu strains which are thought to be most prevalent, but that's not a precise science, and further mutations soon render it less effective in any case.
Flu is a completely different proposition to COVID from a vaccination POV.

On Jeremy Vine this morning, the red headed Doctor he has on, also said that masks will have to be worn for another year, as they will still not know if someone is Asymptomatic and carrying C19 even after the jab ! talk about making everyone depressed !
And of course after the most recent lockdown, there will be of course another one in Jan....as it has had time to regain strength !

We really do have to start to realise that there are a lot of people out there, for whatever reason, that want this tripe to go on and on and on. And unless those opposed to it get better at pushing back, there's no reason to expect it won't go on and on.

Agree 100%.
I can't stand Jeremy Vine either.

 

[yorksrob]

On Jeremy Vine this morning, the red headed Doctor he has on, also said that masks will have to be worn for another year, as they will still not know if someone is Asymptomatic and carrying C19 even after the jab ! talk about making everyone depressed !
And of course after the most recent lockdown, there will be of course another one in Jan....as it has had time to regain strength !

The doctor on Jeremy Vine is a well known lockdown enthusiast as are many of the guests and callers he has on, such as Nina Myscow. I think Jeremy himself is more balanced.

 

[duncanp]

On Jeremy Vine this morning, the red headed Doctor he has on, also said that masks will have to be worn for another year, as they will still not know if someone is Asymptomatic and carrying C19 even after the jab ! talk about making everyone depressed !
And of course after the most recent lockdown, there will be of course another one in Jan....as it has had time to regain strength !

Someone may well be asymptomatic and carrying COVID-19 after having been vaccinated, but isn't the point of vaccination that it protects the individual who has been infected?

So someone who has been vaccinated will have an immune system that can fight the virus to a greater or lesser extent.

Therefore even if they are carrying the virus asymptomatically, any virus that they pass on to someone else is likely to be less severe.

The person who is infected will be less likely to develop complications and require hospitalisation, and if they have been vaccinated too then their immune system will be able to fight the virus.

So if we still need masks and social distancing, plus closed pubs, no crowds at football matches, no music festivals.... etc, etc, etc, after vaccination has been completed, then what excatly is the point of vaccination?

I think restrictions will be lifted gradually starting early in the new year, as Michael Gove said on Sky News this morning. (Although you can never trust what that snake in the grass says)

PS. I couldn't help indulging in a bit of schadenfreude when Kay Burley and Beth Rigby from Sky News were found out to have broken the Tier 2 rules by going out to a restaurant in a party of 8, not all from the same household. Hope they get sacked or severely reprimanded.

 

[MikeWM]

So someone who has been vaccinated will have an immune system that can fight the virus to a greater or lesser extent.

Therefore even if they are carrying the virus asymptomatically, any virus that they pass on to someone else is likely to be less severe.

And almost certainly less likely to pass it on in the first place.

This is part of the whole issue with supposed 'asymptomatic' people passing on the virus. Intuitively you have to expect that someone just sitting there is shedding significantly less virus into the surroundings than someone coughing and sneezing, because (a) they probably have less virus in them to begin with (else they'd probably have symptoms) and (b) what is expelled won't travel as far - so even if asymptomatic spread is possible, it must be much less likely then symptomatic spread. Nothing I have seen so far this year has convinced me this intuition is misguided.

 

[Scotrail12]

The doctor on Jeremy Vine is a well known lockdown enthusiast as are many of the guests and callers he has on, such as Nina Myscow. I think Jeremy himself is more balanced.

That doctor also fills in on GMB when the other lockdown enthusiast (Dr. Hilary) is off. I remember her coming off as quite condescending to an 80-something who was anti-lockdown.

 

[yorksrob]

That doctor also fills in on GMB when the other lockdown enthusiast (Dr. Hilary) is off. I remember her coming off as quite condescending to an 80-something who was anti-lockdown.

Goodness, I haven't seen Dr Hillary since TVAM. Perhaps he's been locked down for the past thirty years !

 

[Mag_seven]

The doctor on Jeremy Vine is a well known lockdown enthusiast

No doubt because they have a nice secure well paid job.

 

[Class 33]

Following up on my own comments about Vallance saying that face mask wearing may need to continue for at least another year yet. I wouldn't take that too seriously. It is only him saying this as a chief medical officer. Johnson does not have to do what he says. And so far, I'm not aware that Johnson or anyone else in the cabinet has actually said that face mask wearing may be needed for at least another year yet. Also in last week's Downing Street Briefing when Van Tam mentioned that face mask wearing may continue for many many months to come yet, Johnson looked flaberghasted in response to this and said "Well we want to get things back to normal soon....". To which Van Tam confirmed that what he actually meant that for some people the habit of wearing face masks may continue for many many months to come yet, and not that he suggested that the government would still mandate the wearing of face masks for many months to come yet. So let's see what happens. It's looking fairly promising that this blasted social distancing will finally be ending by April. And I for one can't wait to see the end of social distancing! Can't wait to see the end of face mask wearing requirements in shops, cinemas, museums, public transport, etc too. And with this vaccine starting to be rolled out now starting with the most vulnerable people, by April the daily Coronavirus deaths should easily be down to consistently single figures at the most, and it really will be absolutely ridiculous if they drag out face mask wearing beyond that, what with the economic effect this has/will continue to have on venues like cinemas, theatres, museums, etc.

 

[Islineclear3_1]

I know it's the Wail but...

Calls for calm over Covid vaccine roll-out amid allergy scare

Both the healthcare workers, who carried EpiPens, are recovering from anaphylactoid reactions following the first day of the mass vaccination programme.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Calls for calm over Pfizer vaccine roll-out after two NHS staff suffer 'anaphylactoid reaction': Scientists urge public not to panic after regulators warn people with history of 'significant' allergies NOT to have jab​

The nurses involved however already had a history of allergies

 

[HSTEd]

They should have given them a pile of money not to say anything for a few months......

 

[MikeWM]

All seems a bit careless. The protocols for the trials already performed explicitly say that it hadn't been tested on people with severe allergic reactions, so why didn't our guidelines reflect that?

Equally shouldn't someone with severe allergies be careful about taking it in the first place?

Happily it sounds like no particular harm was done, but really...

 

[Islineclear3_1]

Equally shouldn't someone with severe allergies be careful about taking it in the first place?

The nurses concerned may have thought that taking the vaccine was the right thing (for them) to do in order to protect their patients

 

[Jozhua]

Point taken.

But a vaccination will reduce the effect of COVID-19 to a manageable level, both by increasing the body's ability to fight the infection, and by limiting the severity of the infection in the first place.

It is unrealistic to try and pretend that we can eliminate COVID-19, at least in the short term.

Oh we'll never eliminate covid. And this I think is my main worry.

COVID will never be gone, even with risk reduced to less than that of flu, people are so terrified of it that even one case, or death per day will be seen as 'unacceptable', therefore we must lock down till it is gone.

This is an endemic virus we will learn to live with. Fortunately with good treatments, vaccine and available testing, the risk will be quite low across the board. Plus the main issue was overwhelming healthcare, which will be less of a concern when few patients are coming in with Covid.

I honestly think once a decent amount of the vulnerable are vaccinated, we can at least avoid lockdowns, then once all the vulnerable are vaccinated and everyone else starts receiving them, we should pull away tiers, relax social distancing, etc. Once most people who want one have had one, big events and the like should be able to resume, and international travel anywhere without quarantine.

I'm expecting things to be lifted near the end of March. It'll be a year since the introduction of lockdown laws (carrying on much past that would be political suicide even without an election coming up), and will also be around the time electioneering would begin to ramp up. That's not to say there won't be any restrictions after that point, but I expect them to be mostly restricted to private venue's own rules. Travelling to where you want, whenever you want, seeing who you want, and going out for a pint without problems, all back on the agenda.

I hope so.

Honestly, the business closures is another debate, but I hope the restrictions on our personal freedoms end as soon as possible. They shouldn't be on the table, and I'm sad that in a supposedly free country, I cannot be trusted to make my own decisions.

Some legal weight behind isolation is fine, but everything else, nope.

To answer the title of the thread. There probably won't be much change, from normal. The world will still contain bigoted idiots, people that are abused, incompetent politicians and social injustice.

True, true.

Once those who have taken the vaccine for its personal peace-of-mind effects have done so, there should be a massive drop in the fatality rates (both overall/pro capita and as a proportion of cases) and so it will either be easier to return to normal or will seem to be more about control.

Yeah true, once people have the vaccine, maybe they will feel safe. Bubble wrap can be distributed to wrap those up who still feel the need to tell everyone else what to do with their lives.

On Jeremy Vine this morning, the red headed Doctor he has on, also said that masks will have to be worn for another year, as they will still not know if someone is Asymptomatic and carrying C19 even after the jab ! talk about making everyone depressed !
And of course after the most recent lockdown, there will be of course another one in Jan....as it has had time to regain strength !

Hopefully with the first people having their boosters in January and continued initial jabs in many more, we shouldn't see a significant rise in hospitalisations or deaths in January.

The seasonal flu vaccine is usually based upon a predicted strain but often covers last year's strain

It is never guaranteed to prevent the flu; at best it might lessen its effects

From what I see first hand however, all of my colleagues who get the flu jab get the flu....

I got my jab quite early on, in September and have been fine so far this season! The jab will take a while to kick in, so they may very well have got ill soon after the jab. The vaccine is also about 50% effective due to the fact they can only cover a few strains, so there's that.

Still, it's worthwhile and does have a good impact on reducing the spread of the flu. Some more yearly uptake would help as well.

And almost certainly less likely to pass it on in the first place.

This is part of the whole issue with supposed 'asymptomatic' people passing on the virus. Intuitively you have to expect that someone just sitting there is shedding significantly less virus into the surroundings than someone coughing and sneezing, because (a) they probably have less virus in them to begin with (else they'd probably have symptoms) and (b) what is expelled won't travel as far - so even if asymptomatic spread is possible, it must be much less likely then symptomatic spread. Nothing I have seen so far this year has convinced me this intuition is misguided.

^Absolutely

I've listened to a lot of epidemiologists, even pro lockdown ones, on how the virus spreads. The general message I get is:
-Asymptomatic people are only a small proportion of spreading, in fact the majority comes from pre-symptomatic (who will later develop symptoms).
-Of those who develop symptoms, some will be 'super-shedders' who dump a significant viral load from their bodies. These will typically go on to develop symptoms.
-A lot of the spreading happens in "super spreading" events from "super shredders"

Plus, a lot of "asymptomatic" cases may be people testing positive weeks or months after the initial infection. They may not be infectious at all at the time they test PCR positive. So overall, I think asymptomatic is a bit of a misnomer and the health information now seems to reflect that.

No doubt because they have a nice secure well paid job.

Yeah, that definitely helps lol!

I know it's the Wail but...

Calls for calm over Covid vaccine roll-out amid allergy scare

Both the healthcare workers, who carried EpiPens, are recovering from anaphylactoid reactions following the first day of the mass vaccination programme.

www.dailymail.co.uk

The nurses involved however already had a history of allergies

All seems a bit careless. The protocols for the trials already performed explicitly say that it hadn't been tested on people with severe allergic reactions, so why didn't our guidelines reflect that?

Equally shouldn't someone with severe allergies be careful about taking it in the first place?

Happily it sounds like no particular harm was done, but really...

Yeah, whenever I get a jab I'm asked about allergies. It's probably on the medical staff who had it for taking it too, as they probably knew there was a chance of it happening.

Personally, I'm not too worried, they're both recovering now and this isn't unheard of. Shame everyone involved didn't use a bit more common sense. Oh well, the wonder of epipens!

 

[hwl]

...
Hopefully with the first people having their boosters in January and continued initial jabs in many more, we shouldn't see a significant rise in hospitalisations or deaths in January.
...

That isn't what is expected though. The initial level of vaccination with Pfizer vaccines is quite low due to logistics and supply.
The four CMOs (E,WS,NI) last Friday issued a joint statement urging caution and that it would take another 3 months to start seeing noticable effects on serious cases and deaths. Hospitalisation and deaths tend to lag case numbers by a week/2 weeks and 2-4 weeks respectively.

 

[yorksrob]

That isn't what is expected though. The initial level of vaccination with Pfizer vaccines is quite low due to logistics and supply.
The four CMOs (E,WS,NI) last Friday issued a joint statement urging caution and that it would take another 3 months to start seeing noticable effects on serious cases and deaths. Hospitalisation and deaths tend to lag case numbers by a week/2 weeks and 2-4 weeks respectively.

The effect on hospitalisations should be incremental as more of the most vulnerable get their second jab.

They need to be incrementally moving towards relaxing the most onerous restrictions as this takes place, and supporting the most vulnerable to avoid contact with others whilst they wait. Locking down everyone for as long as possible should not be the default option.