Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
What of the following two options is more likely to be causing the virus to spread?
1 - people travelling more, going to pubs, going to restaurants, going on holiday (and ignoring the self isolation on return if it applies to the relevant country), visiting family indoors, having house parties indoors, using public transport, going to the office, going back to work if applicable, going to events like the trial sports events and concerts that have happened etc.
2 - masks.
It is pretty damn obvious list number 1 is going to have a much larger impact surely!
Certainly that's what one would expect. But it's categorically not how the graph has drawn itself. All those things in (1) have been happening with no uptick, just a gradual linear rise which may actually have been no rise as testing was also rising. Then (2) happened and cases have started to grow exponentially.
Now I'm not going to blame that on masks as others have (because other things have happened), but I think that shows that they had very little effect, other than possibly on public transport where they allowed distancing to be reduced. (And I don't think I'd blame that for the uptick, because outside of London, much to the dislike of this Forum of course, most people do not use public transport).
Personally I thought they would cause a noticeable downtick, but they didn't, which is why I'm starting to revise my view on them. I'm heading towards the line that their main effect is to stop the "Karens" from being scared of going out and spending their money (and there are rather more Karens than there are vehement mask-opposers).