can public transport ever recover from COVID-19

[telstarbox]

It would be interesting to see the above graph broken down by business sector.

Sorry, the DfT only publish the headline figure derived from LENNON. The London Underground values are again similar but with more volatility from day to day.

 

[joncombe]

Also worth noting I think that the graph is ticket sales, not passengers. So presumably someone purchasing an annual season would be counted the same as someone buying a single to the next stop. I suspect a way lower percentage of those tickets are seasons compared to usual so I doubt revenue is at 40%

 

[Skimpot flyer]

If revenue protection is coming back I'd imagine that will indeed cause an uptick - a lot of people have presumably been fare dodging as they knew they wouldn't get caught.

Indeed. The true number of passengers has, for most of the last 3 months in particular, been masked ...

 

[Huntergreed]

Indeed. The true number of passengers has, for most of the last 3 months in particular, been masked ...

Excellent pun which is also extremely true!

 

[Bletchleyite]

Indeed. The true number of passengers has, for most of the last 3 months in particular, been masked ...

Good turn of phrase

 

[Skimpot flyer]

Thanks

 

[telstarbox]

Also worth noting I think that the graph is ticket sales, not passengers. So presumably someone purchasing an annual season would be counted the same as someone buying a single to the next stop. I suspect a way lower percentage of those tickets are seasons compared to usual so I doubt revenue is at 40%

The methodology does make an allowance for season tickets :

COVID-19 domestic transport data: methodology note

www.gov.uk

 

[yorksrob]

Sorry, the DfT only publish the headline figure derived from LENNON. The London Underground values are again similar but with more volatility from day to day.

Indeed. I think it might be in the quarterly/annual round up that usage is reported by sector.

On another note, the hoo-ha in the news about the lack of social distancing in a DWP office in Leeds this morning suggests that a large scale return to offices isn't likely for a while yet.

 

[Bantamzen]

Indeed. I think it might be in the quarterly/annual round up that usage is reported by sector.

On another note, the hoo-ha in the news about the lack of social distancing in a DWP office in Leeds this morning suggests that a large scale return to offices isn't likely for a while yet.

Having, shall we say something of an inside knowledge of said building, I can tell you that a lot of work has been done and a lot of information made available to staff in the building. The HSE report has more than a feel of clipboard box ticking than actual meaningful mitigation.

 

[yorksrob]

Having, shall we say something of an inside knowledge of said building, I can tell you that a lot of work has been done and a lot of information made available to staff in the building. The HSE report has more than a feel of clipboard box ticking than actual meaningful mitigation.

I expect there's a large element of "pour encourager les autres" going on here, but I think the effect will be the same.

 

[Bantamzen]

I expect there's a large element of "pour encourager les autres" going on here, but I think the effect will be the same.

You are probably right, I fully expect some dial-back on office returning with stories like these. Which means goodness knows how many more months of working from home. I am now giving very serious consideration to compressing my hours, I'm now averaging 9-10 hours 5 days a day at home which would be enough to allow me to work 4 days & get an extra day at the weekend.

 

[yorksrob]

You are probably right, I fully expect some dial-back on office returning with stories like these. Which means goodness knows how many more months of working from home. I am now giving very serious consideration to compressing my hours, I'm now averaging 9-10 hours 5 days a day at home which would be enough to allow me to work 4 days & get an extra day at the weekend.

If you can manage a 9-10 hour day, you might as well (I personally have to digest work in smaller lumps). An increase in such flexibility in favour of employees is probably overdue.

My own employer said yesterday that they wouldn't be reversing their first tentative steps in getting people back into the office (yet) but it's unlikely to be ramped up further for the timebeing.

 

[Bantamzen]

Even before WFH I was doing the odd day from here, and without the up to 3 hour a day commute I was starting at six and working until about four. So if its not likely to be anytime soon before we get back to the office, its starting to make a lot of sense.

 

[DorkingMain]

Commuter flows are definitely the thing we're missing at my TOC. Leisure travel has spiked hugely, probably partly due to things like the Eat Out To Help Out scheme and the fact that the novelty of going to the pub or going shopping is still there for now. There's been a lot more "point-to-point" travel, people travelling from smaller stations to a large local town or shopping area, while the number of people who bundle onto trains towards London and pour off at the terminus is far less.

 

[317 forever]

Sorry, the DfT only publish the headline figure derived from LENNON. The London Underground values are again similar but with more volatility from day to day.

The government should therefore also publish figures derived from McCARTNEY

 

[Jamesrob637]

The government should therefore also publish figures derived from McCARTNEY

They would be STARRs to get all info accurate and on time

 

[LiftFan]

Commuter flows are definitely the thing we're missing at my TOC. Leisure travel has spiked hugely, probably partly due to things like the Eat Out To Help Out scheme and the fact that the novelty of going to the pub or going shopping is still there for now. There's been a lot more "point-to-point" travel, people travelling from smaller stations to a large local town or shopping area, while the number of people who bundle onto trains towards London and pour off at the terminus is far less.

I'm wondering when commuters decide to ditch the roads again, cycling and walking is far less attractive on a cold dark winter morning and the amount of cars I've seen on the roads is huge! I'm already getting frustrated on my shifts (if I have to either start or finish at 1400) getting stuck behind every pensioner in the south west doing 35mph.

 

[Howardh]

For the first time since Covid, the late 2335 Oxford Road > Bolton and beyond ran, and I expected to be the only pax on it last night. But happily there were quite a few using it, so at least word has got round that it's been re-instated!

Also noted that the Village part of Manchester last night was well populated for a Monday, many enjoying the warm evening outside. Dunno if that was replocated around town, but really had a "normal" midweek feel about it.

 

[telstarbox]

Here's the weekly update - note there is some volatility as the Bank Holiday was in different calendar weeks in 2019 and 2020.
Sales still below 40% although there is a note that the last week will be an underestimate.

 

[Meerkat]

Here's the weekly update - note there is some volatility as the Bank Holiday was in different calendar weeks in 2019 and 2020.
Sales still below 40% although there is a note that the last week will be an underestimate.

View attachment 83597

Anyone want to estimate the level of ticketless travel at the moment!

 

[LowLevel]

Anyone want to estimate the level of ticketless travel at the moment!

Up to 80% on some of the trains I've worked.

 

[Jozhua]

The DfT have summarised NR ticket sales data since the start of the pandemic, in comparison to the equivalent week last year. At the end of August this is still below 40%.

The London Underground data largely matches the NR data, except for an earlier drop-off in March.

(Graph by me)
View attachment 83080

The services I have been on are filling up again. Now running at approximately 50% capacity off peak. Social distancing of two meters is definitely not possible! But I doubt it works anyway, so we're all good. Most passengers don't seem to mind either, as long as they aren't sat next to a stranger.

Well, it's creeping up anyway, although there's a limit to how far it will go without a full office return.

The key thing is not to impose knee-jerk cuts that are going to destroy the recovery in the sectors that are placed to bounce back quicker, such as leisure.

Knee-jerk cuts is this countries finest asset lol.

To be fair, I don't think that most UK cities have that many high rise office blocks - certainly not as many as London.

I get the feeling around 4 - 5 storeys is normal.

Yeah, most tall blocks in Manchester are residential. Think there's a few towers in Mediacity, but the lifts never seemed too crowded there pre-apocalypse.

I notice XC are still running their once an hour BHM - LEI service, with an alternate extension to Cambridge. I must admit, I won't use XC whilst I can drive to Nuneaton and jump on an WMT service.

Why use XC at all, when you can drive?

I'm more anti-XC than I am anti car.

Apparently Chiltern kicked a load of schoolkids off one their services this morning between Dorridge and Leamington (presumably at Warwick?) as it was too crowded and they had to wait an hour for the next one. What a complete farce.

Terrible! I bet they got it in the neck for arriving late too...

Why are younger people treated like second class citizens when they are paying just like any adult?

That's most of New York City stuffed then!

My uncle works in NYC and said that in a 2 square meter lift, there are like 5 boxes assigned for people to stand in to remain "socially distanced".

Here's the latest graph. Usage still hasn't broken through 40% of 2019 values.
(The last day is 31 August, a Bank Holiday which may explain the significant drop at the end.)

View attachment 83375

Thanks for keeping us updated! Helps to give some context to the conversation.

The amount of tickets I've been flogging on board to surprised passengers expect a spike shortly

Hahahha, I know some people who've been dodging whilst ticket checks were paused. Can't say who tho, coz snitches get stitches...

I didn't travel by train at all during lockdown, but now I travel at the same level I did before as ticket checks have restarted.

 

[Meerkat]

How much suppressed demand do you reckon there has been, both from employers not being able to afford central London offices and potential employees put off by crowded trains?
I was pretty much ruling out working in London, put off by the idea of standing on the train in and then crush loaded tubes, but if I was pretty much guaranteed a seat on the train and the tubes were just busy rather than a moving black hole of Calcutta I might well be tempted.
And if WFH means central London rents drop will there be employers moving in to fill that space, keen to take advantage of the agglomeration benefits and the much greater talent pool available (due to the London commuter network)?

 

[telstarbox]

The central London office market is quite diverse.

On one hand you have hotdesk and serviced buildings run by the likes of Regus. These might have between 1 and 10 people in each 'suite', with shared facilities like kitchens and toilets. You can rent these for just a day, or from month to month, so they're a bit like a hotel in terms of flexibility. I could see this sort of business staying around.

In the City and Canary Wharf a bank or large PLC might have several hundred people over a few floors, or even a whole building. These are generally locked in on multi-year deals and so represent a huge fixed cost. Some of these large companies have had all their staff at home for six months now and are signalling that they'll be looking to reduce their property costs significantly.

 

[Huntergreed]

I see Nicola Sturgeon advised in her briefing today for Scottish people to avoid non-essential travel going forward. I’ve got a bad feeling the “essential only” messaging might be making another appearance soon

 

[MDB1images]

It could have returned on many routes(particularly the leisure market which was getting stronger with each day).
The message of avoid public transport (which is put out without evidence)is now being trotted out by our batch of 'Politicians' so I fear the Rail industry will start to suffer again just as it was slowly building up!.

 

[jkkne]

The guidance is odd. Newcastle City Council have said they did not ask for any restrictions on public transport but it was the Government who released the 'essential journeys only' wording when the full local lockdown came into effect.

 

[Huntergreed]

The guidance is odd. Newcastle City Council have said they did not ask for any restrictions on public transport but it was the Government who released the 'essential journeys only' wording when the full local lockdown came into effect.

Is it just guidance, the “essential only” rule?

Also, isn’t it unlawful to specify that it’s essential only for public transport only, and not with cars, thus discriminating wilfully against those who do not own (or cannot afford) a car.

 

[telstarbox]

Which law is that?

 

[jkkne]

Is it just guidance, the “essential only” rule?

Also, isn’t it unlawful to specify that it’s essential only for public transport only, and not with cars, thus discriminating wilfully against those who do not own (or cannot afford) a car.

Yes, it’s just guidance. Go Ahead North East are actually pushing how safe bus travel is