When will restrictions finally end?

[Richard Scott]

Having some restrictions for 12 months is very different to bring in lockdown for 12 months.

I suspect that come Easter we would probably start to see some areas move down the tiers as the lockdown and vaccine start to reduce numbers.

By the end of the summer term it's likely that there would be very few in or above tier 2 and hopefully by the end of the summer holidays it may even be that there's limited numbers even in tier 1.

However even so it could still be that we are advised to try and limit the risk number of people we interact with without their being testing (so for instance the live watching of football or attending a gig could require a negative test within the last 48 hours).

The "problem" with vaccines is that they work very well when there's very low car numbers, however when there's already a lot of cases they don't work so well.

For instance if you've got 10 people with Covid-19 and everyone has 75% protection from the virus then even if those people meet with 50 people you're only going to infect at most 125 people (assuming that they are in close proximity and or near and inside fora long time). However, if you've got 1,000 people with it and they meet 10 people (due to being in lockdown) then that's at most 2,500 new infections.

As such the key is to reduce case numbers (i.e. what we'll be doing between now and Easter/the summer) so that vaccines can do their thing. If there's then outbreaks (i.e. when those 10 people infect 125 people) then that's when you bring in other measures to reduce spread (i.e. what we're likely to be doing from the summer until the end of the year).

However such ongoing measures would likely to be much more regional in nature and so the vast majority may not need to be involved in them.

Some changes due to Covid-19 could be here to stay, for instance:
- The retention of hand sanitizer at the entry to buildings (whether it's used is another matter, but I suspect that it's likely that it's use would still be fairly high) as well as better hand washing in general
- People WFH and/or being more cautious about socialising when they are unwell in any way
- People doing more of their shopping online
- Higher uptake of the flu vaccine

Some may even be mandated by law (such as work places not being able to penilise those who ask to work from home due to being ill if they are able to do their job), and so could be argued that they are a restriction because of Covid-19, yet actually the reality is that (subject to case numbers being more) most restrictions should be fairly limited in scale and geography at some point those year (ideally within 5 months).

These numbers make some unlikely assumptions, that no-one has had it and that all will get it. We had some cases at work, we all work within a reasonable proximity of those that had it and only 1 out of 10 actually got it.

 

[Crossover]

My estimate, based on no evidence other than reading the news, is:

1) restrictions eased w/c 22 Feb. (Schools back, some other easements)
2) back into Tiers a couple of weeks later
3) most of country back to Tier 1 (or less) by easter

I very much hope you are right

 

[VauxhallandI]

These numbers make some unlikely assumptions, that no-one has had it and that all will get it. We had some cases at work, we all work within a reasonable proximity of those that had it and only 1 out of 10 actually got it.

Indeed, I know of three households that have had an infected person in them isolating and no other members of the household have caught it (tested negative)

 

[yorksrob]

Just had BBC Breakfast on the tele in the background and my ears pricked up when, during the Covid discussion, the two experts (the always pessimistic Linda Bauld from Edinburgh University who the BBC always roll out to spread doom and gloom and the Virologist Chris Smith) were both suggesting that measures such as social distancing, mask wearing, etc would be needed for "quite some months" into the future, and "at least for the foreseeable future".

The justification seemed to be that as there is no evidence the vaccines reduce transmission then current rules need to stay to ensure the virus doesn't spread and infect people who haven't or can't be vaccinated, or someone for the whom the vaccine does not work.

There was a discussion whereby it was said that if the levels of infection dropped significantly to very low levels like last summer, and significant numbers had been vaccinated, then some restrictions could be eased for a bit to allow socialising and contact with relatives such as hugging etc.

If these clowns think we can stay in lockdown until everyones been vaccinated, they're deluded.

The public are only complying whilst the vulnerable are vaccinated. The mood will change after that.

 

[Bald Rick]

I very much hope you are right

So do I.

I did correctly estimate the week that the last lockdown would begin to be eased; you can take that as either I’m good at this estimating lark, or perhaps lucky once!

 

[takno]

If these clowns think we can stay in lockdown until everyones been vaccinated, they're deluded.

The public are only complying whilst the vulnerable are vaccinated. The mood will change after that.

The BBC live feed is now running with comments from a couple of health psychologists, which is apparently a job now, that the lockdown should be tightened. They're pearl-clutchingly terrified that schools are 30-50% full of key worker children (sounds like rubbish to me), and have a whole list of people they have determined themselves qualified to say are non-essential.

They even have the cheek to say that the government decision not to lock these people indoors is "political", without any apparent insight into just how political their own opinions are.

They're dangerous people, some of these trick-cyclists passing themselves off as scientists and experts.

 

[yorksrob]

The BBC live feed is now running with comments from a couple of health psychologists, which is apparently a job now, that the lockdown should be tightened. They're pearl-clutchingly terrified that schools are 30-50% full of key worker children (sounds like rubbish to me), and have a whole list of people they have determined themselves qualified to say are non-essential.

They even have the cheek to say that the government decision not to lock these people indoors is "political", without any apparent insight into just how political their own opinions are.

They're dangerous people, some of these trick-cyclists passing themselves off as scientists and experts.

I must admit, I do like the BBC, and it does have some insightful reporting, however you can tell when it's in full propaganda mode. This morning seems to be one of those times.

 

[Bertie the bus]

My estimate, based on no evidence other than reading the news, is:

1) restrictions eased w/c 22 Feb. (Schools back, some other easements)
2) back into Tiers a couple of weeks later
3) most of country back to Tier 1 (or less) by easter

1 and 2 are possible though I think 1 is a bit optimistic. Schools might be back by then but I don't think other restrictions will be eased. As for 3 - no chance. I don't see large swathes of the country being in anything less than tier 2 until May or June at the earliest.

 

[DB]

The BBC live feed is now running with comments from a couple of health psychologists, which is apparently a job now, that the lockdown should be tightened. They're pearl-clutchingly terrified that schools are 30-50% full of key worker children (sounds like rubbish to me), and have a whole list of people they have determined themselves qualified to say are non-essential.

They even have the cheek to say that the government decision not to lock these people indoors is "political", without any apparent insight into just how political their own opinions are.

They're dangerous people, some of these trick-cyclists passing themselves off as scientists and experts.

The number in schools probably is higher than last time, because many people think that it's better for their kids to be at school so will sent them if they can. From talking to colleagues who have primary-school age kids, it appears that unsurprisingly schools are writing their own rules on what is and isn't a key worker, and some are are only allowing the kids in if both parents are key workers, whereas some aren't bothered and will do so if only one parent is. As usual, the government clearly hasn't put any planning into it.

 

[yorksrob]

1 and 2 are possible though I think 1 is a bit optimistic. Schools might be back by then but I don't think other restrictions will be eased. As for 3 - no chance. I don't see large swathes of the country being in anything less than tier 2 until May or June at the earliest.

That's my fear. They'll get the kiddies back to school, then the rest of us will be expected to swivel for months on end.

 

[DB]

That's my fear. They'll get the kiddies back to school, then the rest of us will be expected to swivel for months on end.

There's still the financial issue though - sooner or later Sunak is going to have to start pulling back on the furlough scheme. Once that's done, most of the restrictions become unworkable.

 

[yorksrob]

There's still the financial issue though - sooner or later Sunak is going to have to start pulling back on the furlough scheme. Once that's done, most of the restrictions become unworkable.

One would hope that that might focus some minds in Government.

 

[Crossover]

So do I.

I did correctly estimate the week that the last lockdown would begin to be eased; you can take that as either I’m good at this estimating lark, or perhaps lucky once!

Or secret Government advisor

 

[Hawkwood Junc]

On the topic of easing of restrictions, I'm struggling to see much changing before Easter really. Possibly a return to meeting outside with Groups of 6 from the mid Feb date maybe along with the reopening of golf courses for groups of 2, plus tennis. I think much depends on the vaccination schedule maintaining a decent head of steam for the remainder of this month. The weariness is already setting in with many. The weather isn't as nice, the days are short and 'going for a walk' is losing its appeal when everywhere round here is either insanely busy/muddy. I think many who are OK with lockdown may start to find their acceptance of it reduces more quickly this time.

My release at the moment is going for a run a few times a week through a country park and some quiet side streets. It seems that Sadiq Khan in his desperate desire to be seen to be doing something other than being a load of hot air is asking for masks in crowded outdoor spaces. How long before the clamour comes for it to be everywhere, rendering going for a run virtually impossible. Exercise is important for general health but it seems that health is no longer holistic. It's either you have Covid or you don't have Covid.

I think in the past lockdown there were a number of professions who were counted as key workers that could have gone into the office but there wasn't any particular pressure to. Talking to some friends in the financial services industry, this isn't as much the case this time. Many are now expected back in the office and are therefore utilising their key worker status to keep their kids in school. There's also the fact that over the past 12 months, some kids will have been out of school for 6 months. A long time when you are a kid and sure to impact on their education and social development.

 

[northernchris]

I think in the past lockdown there were a number of professions who were counted as key workers that could have gone into the office but there wasn't any particular pressure to. Talking to some friends in the financial services industry, this isn't as much the case this time. Many are now expected back in the office and are therefore utilising their key worker status to keep their kids in school. There's also the fact that over the past 12 months, some kids will have been out of school for 6 months. A long time when you are a kid and sure to impact on their education and social development.

I work in financial services, and would agree with this. We had a call earlier in the week to run through the impact of the latest lockdown and was told that anyone who needs a letter confirming keyworker (I despise the term!) status for either childcare or travel could receive one whereas no-one in my team was offered last time. We're still working from home apart from some colleagues who have recently joined and due to the lack of laptops are office based, but the general consensus of those with kids is that they'd rather them be in school

 

[hwl]

Indeed, I know of three households that have had an infected person in them isolating and no other members of the household have caught it (tested negative)

With the old strain the estimate was that 70% of people didn't pass it on. 10% passed it on to one other and 20% passed it on to 2 or more others.

 

[Class 33]

I have largely cut down on both watching the TV news and frequently checking the online news about Coronavirus and lockdowns/restrictions, after the daily deaths unfortunately rose to over 1,000 this week. I expect the press and media have been going into overdrive this week about this, especially the likes of The Mirror and The Sun.

Anyway, just did a quick check on the Sky News website just now. And it says even tougher measures could be introduced within weeks!! For crying out loud, we don't need even tougher measures!! What could these tougher measures be? Not allowed outside our own houses atall without permits now? Support bubbles scrapped? If so this is going to drive people(in particular those living on their own) absolutely mad, and for some people it could unfortunately tip them over the edge unable to take all this any longer.

The sooner the effects of all these vaccinations which started on 8th December hurries up and kicks in and the healthcare and deaths starts starts falling, the better. It just can't come soon enough. But it unfortunately looks like this could still be at least a few weeks away yet, and in the meantime the lunatics running this asylum are going to make things even worst for us by introducing even tougher measures. What an absolute nightmare this is.

 

[philjo]

I’m not expecting much easement of restrictions for social gatherings until after 14th March (Mothering Sunday). The rise infections caused by Lots of people meeting up that day last year was one of the triggers of the first lockdown.
Though education and business activities could be eased before this.

 

[greyman42]

Even Tier 2 bans household mixing indoors and restricts pubs etc to meals only.

Where do you get that from?

 

[brad465]

I have largely cut down on both watching the TV news and frequently checking the online news about Coronavirus and lockdowns/restrictions, after the daily deaths unfortunately rose to over 1,000 this week. I expect the press and media have been going into overdrive this week about this, especially the likes of The Mirror and The Sun.

Anyway, just did a quick check on the Sky News website just now. And it says even tougher measures could be introduced within weeks!! For crying out loud, we don't need even tougher measures!! What could these tougher measures be? Not allowed outside our own houses atall without permits now? Support bubbles scrapped? If so this is going to drive people(in particular those living on their own) absolutely mad, and for some people it could unfortunately tip them over the edge unable to take all this any longer.

The sooner the effects of all these vaccinations which started on 8th December hurries up and kicks in and the healthcare and deaths starts starts falling, the better. It just can't come soon enough. But it unfortunately looks like this could still be at least a few weeks away yet, and in the meantime the lunatics running this asylum are going to make things even worst for us by introducing even tougher measures. What a nightmare this is.

Yes there doesn't seem to be any thought given to given the current restrictions a chance: that over 1000 deaths situation right now is a consequence of actions that date back to a time not even in this calendar year. The ONS infection survey data seems to suggest that infection peaks have been reached for London, the South East and the east (just about), and in London particularly have started falling, which this new variant hit first and hardest so far. There's also a clear drop in rates among school age children that correlates perfectly with the school Christmas holidays:



Of course it takes time for hospitalisations and deaths to filter through from these infection levels, but a continuation of this trend will see the wider picture improve, especially as the vaccine rollout is underway, and now two new drug treatments that have been found to improve recovery times in hospital are in place.

I’m not expecting much easement of restrictions for social gatherings until after 14th March (Mothering Sunday). The rise infections caused by Lots of people meeting up that day last year was one of the triggers of the first lockdown.
Though education and business activities could be eased before this.

I do wonder if the realisation that two Mother's days in a row not being able to see one's mother will cause people to come to their senses; SAGE actually advised lockdown a week before it happened in March, so I don't think last year's Mother's day behaviour could have prevented a lockdown being initiated. What will be different this time is last year the situation was clearly going to get (and did get) worse. Now a year on, the situation should be getting better, as vaccines are being rolled out, more drug treatments are available, and the current wave will likely be running out of steam by March after millions more vaccinated (hopefully) and some extra community immunity from all this wave's infections.

 

[hwl]

But once all the most vulnerable people have been vaccinated, if they then drag all this on into summer and then say something like "Well because of the effects of Long Covid, we still need to keep these restrictions going." or "Well we've got the winter cold/flu season coming up soon, so we still need to keep these restrictions going.", this will be just absolutely unforgiveable.

As I said before, those who want "The New Normal" to continue by socially distancing and face mask wearing forever, can do so on their own forever if they so wish. But the vast vast majority of the country wants those restrictions to end and to get back to a normal life again. We just can't stand much more of all this.

Have a look at this BBC article - 40% of hospital admissions are in the 40-65 age bracket

Are Covid patients getting younger?

What does the data show about the age groups being affected by the virus in the second wave?

www.bbc.co.uk

"In the last few weeks, for example, adults aged 18-64 have accounted for 40% of daily Covid admissions to hospitals, data from Public Health England shows. This compares to 40% for 65-84 year olds and 20% for the over-85s."

Since 18-64 age group aren't in Boris's by end of Feb target for 1st dose, hospitals will still have major covid issues especially if under 65s then go out and transmit it more as restriction are reduced. That age group also tend to stay in hospital far longer than older patients who tend to survive less.

 

[yorksrob]

Have a look at this BBC article - 40% of hospital admissions are in the 40-65 age bracket

Are Covid patients getting younger?

What does the data show about the age groups being affected by the virus in the second wave?

www.bbc.co.uk

I still don't see how they can lock us down all year. I expect to be back to going out and about by the time the vulnerable have been done.

 

[Mag_seven]

I’m not expecting much easement of restrictions for social gatherings until after 14th March (Mothering Sunday). The rise infections caused by Lots of people meeting up that day last year was one of the triggers of the first lockdown.
Though education and business activities could be eased before this.

Has that been proven - there appears to be a massive list of things that have claimed to cause a spike in infections but have never been proved as such e.g.

Mothers Day
Cheltenham Festival
VE Day
Pubs reopening
Bournemouth Beach crowds
Black Lives Matter protests
Schools going back
Christmas......

 

[brad465]

Have a look at this BBC article - 40% of hospital admissions are in the 40-65 age bracket

For now that maybe a concern, but if these two drugs that have been found to improve recovery rates in hospital by as much a week get widely used it, won't be so much of an issue later on.

 

[yorksrob]

Has that been proven - there appears to be a massive list of things that have claimed to cause a spike in infections but have never been proved as such e.g.

Mothers Day
Cheltenham Festival
VE Day
Pubs reopening
Bournemouth Beach crowds
Black Lives Matter protests
Schools going back
Christmas......

The supposed "massive spike" caused by Thanksgiving in the USA turned out to be non-existant.

 

[HSTEd]

The way things are going, it won't matter about hospitalisation figures meaning hospitals will be loaded until the entire population is vaccinated.

This will be over in a matter of a couple of months the way things are going.
It will burn to completion long before vaccination is complete.

 

[takno]

Yes there doesn't seem to be any thought given to given the current restrictions a chance: that over 1000 deaths situation right now is a consequence of actions that date back to a time not even in this calendar year. The ONS infection survey data seems to suggest that infection peaks have been reached for London, the South East and the east (just about), and in London particularly have started falling, which this new variant hit first and hardest so far. There's also a clear drop in rates among school age children that correlates perfectly with the school Christmas holidays:

View attachment 88407 View attachment 88408

Of course it takes time for hospitalisations and deaths to filter through from these infection levels, but a continuation of this trend will see the wider picture improve, especially as the vaccine rollout is underway, and now two new drug treatments that have been found to improve recovery times in hospital are in place.




I do wonder if the realisation that two Mother's days in a row not being able to see one's mother will cause people to come to their senses; SAGE actually advised lockdown a week before it happened in March, so I don't think last year's Mother's day behaviour could have prevented a lockdown being initiated. What will be different this time is last year the situation was clearly going to get (and did get) worse. Now a year on, the situation should be getting better, as vaccines are being rolled out, more drug treatments are available, and the current wave will likely be running out of steam by March after millions more vaccinated (hopefully) and some extra community immunity from all this wave's infections.

Clearly Mother's Day is important to you, and therefore I understand your frustration. I don't think I've ever heard it mentioned by anybody else though in the context of last year or this. I dearly love my mother but I don't think I've seen her on Mother's Day for 25 years. Is it really a big thing?

 

[hwl]

My estimate, based on no evidence other than reading the news, is:

1) restrictions eased w/c 22 Feb. (Schools back, some other easements)
2) back into Tiers a couple of weeks later
3) most of country back to Tier 1 (or less) by easter

1) Agree they will get the schools back after half term but will be testing pupils first to minimise schools case rates. They are non realising the scale of impact of schools and other education on spread so not much wriggle room for much else unless in more rural settings

Others - it will be a while longer I think, as above 40% of current hospitalisations are in the 18-64 age groups that groups will be unvaccinated and if restrictions are reduced more likely to go out and transmit or catch it. Most have focused on the 65+ age group with ~60% of hospitalisations as the major issue but that still leaves another big one.
Agree on the tapering back down through tiers when it does happen. I can see them wanting to avoid large events for quite a while.

I still don't see how they can lock us down all year. I expect to be back to going out and about by the time the vulnerable have been done.

No one is saying all year (The OECD message was addressed to all countries including those not at the forefront of vaccination).
I expect the inability of most of the cabinet to be able to do maths, do data analysis and over optimism to come back to haunt them (yet again).

 

[HSTEd]

Others - it will be a while longer I think, as above 40% of current hospitalisations are in the 18-64 age groups that groups will be unvaccinated and if restrictions are reduced more likely to go out and transmit or catch it.

That would allow us to sustain rather higher infection levels than now, especially with these drugs shortening the ICU stay.
That would mean the wave would burn out fairly quickly simply because it would run out of people to infect.

We are at 1-in-45 now, at double that it's going to run out of targets quite quickly.

Even if reinfection becomes an issue it would buy us several months at least whilst we are still going to be administering ~2m doses a week.

Be interesting to see what a study of vaccination priorities optimising for reduced ICU-days occupied would look like.

 

[Watershed]

A major contributor to current hospitalisation levels is the existence of treatments we didn't have in the first lockdown. People are surviving the disease in much higher proportions than they did back in March - thus inevitably involving a longer hospital stay than dying...

We have rather made a rod for our own backs by failing to explain this to the public. People are no less afraid (and thus just as supportive of restrictions), even though you are now much less likely to suffer serious consequences.