Philip
On Moderation
I think these figures give ground for cautious optimism, as they definitely tip the balance in favour of loosening restrictions, and loosening them sooner, than keeping the lockdown going for longer.
If vaccines reduce infection by two thirds, then that has a downward effect on the "R" value which will reduce the risk associated with each reopening, and increase over time as more people are vaccinated.
The Telegraph are also reporting that the BMA are calling for "the near elimination of COVID before restrictions can be lifted"
But daily hospital admissions have fallen by 66% since the peak, and the number of patients in hospital has fallen by nearly 50%, so the excuse that the NHS is under pressure and "pushed to the brink of collapse" just will not wash anymore.
To be fair he is probably including all factors such as the huge backlog of non-covid operations and treatments that have been put on hold and the long waiting lists. And whilst hospital numbers are going nicely in the right direction, the numbers are still high and with a large percentage of the people who make up the bulk of the hospital admissions, still not vaccinated. Once it has been offered to everyone over 50 and those with pre-existing conditions, then we should be in a much much better position, particularly because of the good news about the effect on transmission.
I'm still hopeful that there will be some cautious easements from 8th March, along with schools going back.