22nd February - Roadmap out of the pandemic, lifting of restrictions.

[PTR 444]

With all this talk about opening sectors of the economy earlier than scheduled if all goes well, part of me wonders whether the aim of this is to avoid crowds flocking to pubs/shops etc on day 1. What I mean by this is the government announces a set date to the public for each sector reopening, but they actually reopen 2-3 weeks earlier without anyone knowing apart from bosses and staff in the relevant industry.

 

[Watershed]

but they actually reopen 2-3 weeks earlier without anyone knowing apart from bosses and staff in the relevant industry.

Fat chance! This government is as leaky as a sieve, if they start telling people in the industry there's no way they can keep it a secret.

 

[ChrisC]

Just been reading the long report in today’s Daily Telegraph but not sure how accurate it will prove to be.

Great news that it sounds like all ‘stay at home’ and ‘stay local’ rules to go from 29th March. This along with allowing most outdoor activities and outdoor sports together with mixing of households outdoors will be good news for Easter. It will be so good to be able to go out for some day trips and see family and friends outside.

What I don’t understand is why overnight stays in hotels and Uk holidays seems to be one of the last things to be allowed and will not happen before June. Why can non essential shops open in April, pubs and restaurants serve inside in May yet hotels can’t open before June? Surely hotels could open as they did last summer with no mixing of households. I can’t see a stay in a Premier Inn being more of a risk than visiting a restaurant or pub. Overnight stays seem to be right at the end of the list after everything else.

 

[chris11256]

With all this talk about opening sectors of the economy earlier than scheduled if all goes well, part of me wonders whether the aim of this is to avoid crowds flocking to pubs/shops etc on day 1. What I mean by this is the government announces a set date to the public for each sector reopening, but they actually reopen 2-3 weeks earlier without anyone knowing apart from bosses and staff in the relevant industry.

I thought that the roadmap would include the 'easliest possible dates'. So dates could be delayed but not pulled forward was my understanding.

 

[initiation]

part of me wonders whether the aim of this is to avoid crowds flocking to pubs/shops etc on day 1.

We had dates fixed for shops, pubs, barbers etc... last year (remember 'super-Saturday'). There was no spike in cases caused by crowds flocking to them.

 

[philosopher]

Utterly unacceptable if true, though worth noting that everything after the end of Step One there is just the telegraph guessing.

You would hope the government would be pushing hard against the idea of social distancing and masks continuing after the vaccine. After all, outside the vulnerable groups, the vaccine is really being promoted as the way to get back to normal, but there is absolutely nothing normal (and never will be) about masks and distancing. Unfortunately it means the anti-vaxxers will have a field day and you'd think the government wouldn't want that.

This is from the Twitter thread:

https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1363623245291933700

Some rules also look unlikely to change any time soon - Keep two meters apart if poss - Wear a mask when needed - Work from home if poss

There appears to be no end date for social distancing, advice to work from home and masks. I do expect the first two will be increasingly ignored by many, but the social distancing advice will still makes many businesses unviable even if individuals can ignore it.

 

[PTR 444]

What I don’t understand is why overnight stays in hotels and Uk holidays seems to be one of the last things to be allowed and will not happen before June. Why can non essential shops open in April, pubs and restaurants serve inside in May yet hotels can’t open before June? Surely hotels could open as they did last summer with no mixing of households. I can’t see a stay in a Premier Inn being more of a risk than visiting a restaurant or pub. Overnight stays seem to be right at the end of the list after everything else.

I don’t understand either. With the stay at home message looking increasing likely to be dropped by March 29th, I can’t see why self-catered accommodation cannot reopen at the same time either. Staying in your own caravan or lodge surely poses no greater risk than staying at home so it seems very short sighted to leave this out, especially if it allows families living too far apart for a day trip to have a base near their relatives when they cannot stay with them at their home overnight.

 

[chris11256]

Laura Kuenssberg reporting that the gap between stages is expected to be about 5 weeks. This puts retail back to early May(5 weeks from end of March) and hospitality then in mid june

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/136376466688803225

Morning - a lot of detail to come thro the day about what rolling back regulations will look like - but gaps between the govt's four steps expected to be FIVE weeks

I suppose it depends whether they count 5 weeks from schools reopning or 5 weeks from outdoor housheold mixing.

 

[yorksrob]

Laura Kuenssberg reporting that the gap between stages is expected to be about 5 weeks. This puts retail back to early May(5 weeks from end of March) and hospitality then in mid june

I suppose it depends whether they count 5 weeks from schools reopning or 5 weeks from outdoor housheold mixing.

That would be disastrous for business. Hopefully the CRG will kick up a fuss.

 

[kristiang85]

I don't think my wedding is happening at the end of July then, is it?

(we've said we will postpone to 2022 if there is any kind of social distancing or mask mandates still in place).

 

[SouthEastBuses]

From Ben Riley-Smith‘s (political editor for the telegraph) Twitter feed:




(https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1363618743327330307?s=21)

It looks like my cautious optimism was misguided. It seems that, despite the success of the vaccination programme and 1/3 of all adults now partially immune, we will exit lockdown more slowly and that social distancing and masks will be mandatory throughout the summer. Goodbye mental health and economy.

No mention of international travel, and no mention of reinstatement of travel corridors / abolishment of quarantine for some countries.

 

[Class 33]

This is from the Twitter thread:

There appears to be no end date for social distancing, advice to work from home and masks. I do expect the first two will be increasingly ignored by many, but the social distancing advice will still makes many businesses unviable even if individuals can ignore it.

I expect many people will soon start to drift away from this social distancing nonsense when for instance passing people in the street or queuing up, etc. But as you say for many businesses, social distancing measures is just completely financially unviable for them. Many won't even be able to break even. But hopefully the CRG and many business chiefs will soon start putting huge pressure on the government to scrap all restrictions. All this really should not be dragging on into the summer and beyond with no end date in sight.

I expect today's announcements by Johnson won't even mention when social distancing and face mask wearing can be scrapped. And if these restrictions are mentioned it will probably be something like "Social distancing and face mask restrictions will still be required for the time being.".

 

[initiation]

I don't think my wedding is happening at the end of July then, is it?

(we've said we will postpone to 2022 if there is any kind of social distancing or mask mandates still in place).

Sorry to hear this. My sister is getting married in May next year and is already worried about restrictions

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1363764666888032257

Laura K from the BBC saying:

gaps between the govt's four steps expected to be FIVE weeks

Given the propensity for the press to be briefed ahead of parliament I would say these rumours are going to be broadly true.

 

[Class 33]

Sounds like this summer's festivals and events season is going to be an absolute write-off yet again then. This would be very unfair to both the organisers of these festivals and the thousands upon thousands of people who were hoping to go any of these festivals/events this summer. I can understand why it was a write-off this year, but will not understand atall if it's all a write-off again this year, when what with the success of these vaccines rollout to millions of people, the festivals and events season this summer could easily have been saved!

 

[DustyBin]

I don't think my wedding is happening at the end of July then, is it?

(we've said we will postpone to 2022 if there is any kind of social distancing or mask mandates still in place).

Nightmare. Ours isn’t yet officially postponed but that’s only because our insurance won’t pay out until six weeks before the wedding date. We’re only a few days away from that point now. Whether we can actually get a 2022 date is another matter, so cancelling altogether and starting from scratch may be the only option.

 

[chris11256]

There's speculation on Twitter that todays roadmap is another 'under promise and over deliver' with Boris annoucing a slightly faster easing in time to boost May election results.

 

[NorthOxonian]

Sounds like this summer's festivals and events season is going to be an absolute write-off yet again then. This would be very unfair to both the organisers of these festivals and the thousands upon thousands of people who were hoping to go any of these festivals/events this summer. I can understand why it was a write-off this year, but will not understand atall if it's all a write-off again this year, when what with the success of these vaccines rollout to millions of people, the festivals and events season this summer could easily have been saved!

If that happens it will send so many into absolute despair - virtually everyone I know is only getting through this winter because they expect the summer ahead to be much better. If that better summer doesn't materialise, and everything is still a bleak, distanced dystopia, then millions are going to really struggle.

 

[Bald Rick]

i.e. under the revised wording, gatherings of more than 6 are permitted, provided that between them they are from no more than two households?

That was my interpretation.

With all this talk about opening sectors of the economy earlier than scheduled if all goes well, part of me wonders whether the aim of this is to avoid crowds flocking to pubs/shops etc on day 1. What I mean by this is the government announces a set date to the public for each sector reopening, but they actually reopen 2-3 weeks earlier without anyone knowing apart from bosses and staff in the relevant industry.

This happened unofficially when lockdown 1 was eased, albeit a few days earlier rather than 2-3 weeks.

 

[Bantamzen]

Interestingly this morning on the BBC News live feed, one of the SAGE members is complaining about a lack of vaccination data being given them which is "upsetting". I wonder is this the first indicator that SAGE are being moved back to the sidelines?

 

[Tezza1978]

Sorry to hear this. My sister is getting married in May next year and is already worried about restrictions

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1363764666888032257

Laura K from the BBC saying:

Given the propensity for the press to be briefed ahead of parliament I would say these rumours are going to be broadly true.

I'm assuming the 5 week gap that Laura K has been told is from March 8, putting outdoor hospitality and shops to mid April, after Easter. So then indoor hospitality is mid May....

 

[chris11256]

I'm assuming the 5 week gap that Laura K has been told is from March 8, putting outdoor hospitality and shops to mid April, after Easter. So then indoor hospitality is mid May....

I've just read the same, 5 weeks from March 8th rather than 5 weeks from the end of March,

 

[Yew]

Just been reading the long report in today’s Daily Telegraph but not sure how accurate it will prove to be.

Great news that it sounds like all ‘stay at home’ and ‘stay local’ rules to go from 29th March. This along with allowing most outdoor activities and outdoor sports together with mixing of households outdoors will be good news for Easter. It will be so good to be able to go out for some day trips and see family and friends outside.

I'd hardly call that good news, there are continents that move more quickly.

 

[kristiang85]

Sorry to hear this. My sister is getting married in May next year and is already worried about restrictions

Yeah, it's a bit of a nightmare - but at least we were always planned for this year, and not postponed from last year to this year, unlike many. I feel for those couples in particular.

Nightmare. Ours isn’t yet officially postponed but that’s only because our insurance won’t pay out until six weeks before the wedding date. We’re only a few days away from that point now. Whether we can actually get a 2022 date is another matter, so cancelling altogether and starting from scratch may be the only option.

Sorry to hear. Luckily our suppliers are very understanding and 100% flexible, so we won't need to go to insurance. I've got a list of dates from the main ones for the weekends they are free next year, so we are going to make a decision probably tonight and rebook. Luckily we held off all the official invitations and just did email save the dates, so we haven't wasted money on that either.

Our original plan was get married this year and move house next year, so we can probably just swap that now. Hopefully Sunak will do some form of extension to the stamp duty holiday in the Budget, which will be a bit of a bonus. Right now the housing market is completely clogged up with people waiting to hear what he's going to do.

 

[bengley]

This is from the Twitter thread:

There appears to be no end date for social distancing, advice to work from home and masks. I do expect the first two will be increasingly ignored by many, but the social distancing advice will still makes many businesses unviable even if individuals can ignore it.

This is the farcical thing about it all. We are forced to 'socially distance' in businesses but in the real world, the people actually doing it are in a minority.

I am not 'socially distancing' from people I know at all - only from strangers to avoid them getting arsey.

 

[duncanp]

I'm assuming the 5 week gap that Laura K has been told is from March 8, putting outdoor hospitality and shops to mid April, after Easter. So then indoor hospitality is mid May....

5 weeks from March 8th is April 12th, which would be the date for non essential retail and outdoor hospitality

5 weeks from April 12th is May 17th, which would be the date for indoor hospitality.

But May 17th would be two weeks after the end of April, which was the current expected date for the vaccination of priority groups 1 - 9 to be completed. (at the end of April)

However this completion date has now been brought forward by two weeks, so I wouldn't mind betting that the May 17th date is brought forward by at least a week.

The BBC are reporting that the 5 week gap was made at the insistence of Chris Whitty. However, I am sure he can be gently "persuaded" to consent to an earlier reopening,and no doubt some suitable data on vaccines and transmission will magically appear to facilitate this, with an announcement to be made before the elections.

 

[Yew]

The BBC are reporting that the 5 week gap was made at the insistence of Chris Whitty. However, I am sure he can be gently "persuaded" to consent to an earlier reopening,and no doubt some suitable data on vaccines and transmission will magically appear to facilitate this, with an announcement to be made before the elections.

It is not Chris Wittys place to "insist" on anything.

 

[ChrisC]

I'd hardly call that good news, there are continents that move more quickly.

It’s certainly not bad news. Just the timing that’s a lot slower than I would have hoped for. I was hoping to start getting away for some short holidays in the UK by the end of April and can’t believe it could be as late as June before hotels can open or any overnight stays allowed.

 

[Bantamzen]

It is not Chris Wittys place to "insist" on anything.

Indeed, methinks he's getting to be a bit too big for his boots. As you say its not for him to demand anything, especially when the results don't affect him & his team.

 

[Cdd89]

I expect the only changes to the legislation on 8 March will be “open air recreation” being added back into the exceptions (from which it should frankly never have been removed - it wasn’t for the November lockdown; a cynic would suggest it was removed purely so they could give us something meaningless back!).

Then at the end of March the legislation will change from “no person may be leave from the place where they are living” to “no person may stay overnight away from the place where they are living”. That is how it worked last summer.

When the second of those happens it’ll become much harder for the government to stop people leaving the country unless there’s some further change to the legislation to prohibit it.

 

[Bald Rick]

5 weeks from March 8th is April 12th, which would be the date for non essential retail and outdoor hospitality

5 weeks from April 12th is May 17th, which would be the date for indoor hospitality.

But May 17th would be two weeks after the end of April, which was the current expected date for the vaccination of priority groups 1 - 9 to be completed. (at the end of April)

However this completion date has now been brought forward by two weeks, so I wouldn't mind betting that the May 17th date is brought forward by at least a week.

Indeed, although don’t forget it takes 2-3 weeks for the vaccine to build immunity. But I agree it has the potential to be done earlier.

However May 17th ties in nicely with the May timetable change, maybe that was in Government thinking