22nd February - Roadmap out of the pandemic, lifting of restrictions.

[chris11256]

I’m not expecting it, but will be extremely disappointed if there’s no mention of the removal of rule of 6, social distancing, you must work from home & such.

the reported timetable also flies in the face of ‘don’t meet up now, have your Christmas gathering at Easter’.

 

[Bantamzen]

So it could still be another 2-3 months before "non-essential" shops & the hospitality industry even begin to recover? Not only did they lose out over Christmas but could also be writing Easter & even the May bank holidays off? We've already lost over a million jobs in a year, how many more are going to be lost in the coming months?

 

[yorksrob]

As others have mentioned, it sounds as though it's very much going to be a matter of too little, too late.

We have the usual cherry-picking of sectors and activities that the health establishment approve of, and my concern is for businesses at the back of the queue, as this roadmap appears to be able to be blown off course at the drop of a hat. If there does turn out to be an increase in cases associated with one of the earlier stages, you can guarantee that it will be those businesses that are the ones penalised even more.

Unfortunately, this move still persists in the fallacy that lockdown is a "necessary evil", rather than simply being the wrong policy to start off with.

Labour generally continuing their theme of being not much use at all.

 

[Class 33]

I’m not expecting it, but will be extremely disappointed if there’s no mention of the removal of rule of 6, social distancing, you must work from home & such.

the reported timetable also flies in the face of ‘don’t meet up now, have your Christmas gathering at Easter’.

Indeed. The rule of 6, social distancing, and work from home really really needs to be finally gone within 3 to 4 months really. Certainly once near enough all(some people may not want it or unable to take it for medical reasons) over 18's have been vaccinated which is estimated to be around mid June-late July, there will absolutely no reason whatsoever for all of those restrictions to remain any longer. Social distancing in particular being the most damaging restriction there is to many thousands of businesses and the wellbeing and mental health of the nation. I don't think Johnson seems to realise this!

 

[alex397]

This insane government continues to astound me. Completely opening schools to everyone in 2 weeks sounds risky. We need a phased return, perhaps up until the Easter holidays and we could then look at completely reopening after Easter.

I want to see a phased reopening of everything else, such as hospitality in a few weeks. I don’t think that will happen if we get an increased R rate due to all the sudden mixing with schools.

Of course the right-wing press will blame lazy teachers not wanting to go back to work (even though most of them have continued to work).

 

[DelayRepay]

In terms of masks and distancing in shops, this probably isn't practical but I will say it anyway.

Could the supermarkets not return to having a 'vulnerable' hour where masks and distancing are mandatory? People who wish to partake can shop during that hour, and people who do not wish to partake can attend at other times.

I just think we need to get to a situation where people can make their own choices. Trying to make everyone follow the rules will not work but providing options so that people can decide what's right for them will work. Obviously if there is demand for masks and distancing, then they would increase the number of hours. If there was no demand then they would cease.

This insane government continues to astound me. Completely opening schools to everyone in 2 weeks sounds risky. We need a phased return, perhaps up until the Easter holidays and we could then look at completely reopening after Easter.

I want to see a phased reopening of everything else, such as hospitality in a few weeks. I don’t think that will happen if we get an increased R rate due to all the sudden mixing with schools.

Of course the right-wing press will blame lazy teachers not wanting to go back to work (even though most of them have continued to work).

I've seen a few people argue for a phased return of schools but I don't understand the logic.

If opening schools is going to cause an increase in cases, then all a phased opening will do is result in a slower increase of cases. But we'll still end up with the same number of cases. In the intervening period there will be more damage to children's education, and more pressure on teachers who will, presumably, have to continue to offer online learning for those who aren't in school, while teaching those who are.

 

[duncanp]

Indeed. The rule of 6, social distancing, and work from home really really needs to be finally gone within 3 to 4 months really. Certainly once near enough all(some people may not want it or unable to take it for medical reasons) over 18's have been vaccinated which is estimated to be around mid June-late July, there will absolutely no reason whatsoever for all of those restrictions to remain any longer. Social distancing in particular being the most damaging restriction there is to many thousands of businesses and the wellbeing and mental health of the nation. I don't think Johnson seems to realise this!

I suspect that social distancing will be abolished once every adult in the country has been vaccinated. The government are currently saying this will be at the end of July, but at current rates of vaccination, and even if the vaccination rate were to fall a little bit, this will be achieved in the second half of June. The government have therefore given themselves a bit of "wiggle room" whereby the target can be achieved even if things don't go according to plan, but also whereby reopening dates can be brought forward if the data is better than expected.

Similarly for reopening non essential shops and hospitality. I think this will be triggered when all priority groups have been vaccinated. Whilst this is currently set for the middle of April, it could be achieved a couple of weeks earlier than this if the vaccination program goes well. By the end of March, the government will be in a position to know whether the target of vaccinating all priority groups is going to be achieved, so this is when you might see an announcement about the next stage of reopening ("Stage 2" according to the papers this morning) If the figures are better than expected, you could see pubs reopening under Tier 1 rules, rather than Tier 2.

Remember that whatever is announced this afternoon, it may not turn out like that in practice, and I suspect that any dates have been chosen with the flexibility to bring some reopenings forwards if possible.

Also it is worth pointing out that whilst all the reopenings may increase the "R" rate, any increase in the "R" rate is going to be counteracted by the increasing numbers of vaccinations, which are known to prevent serious disease and reduce virus transmission. So the risk in all the reopenings is much less than it was last year.

 

[Philip]

Disappointing that it looks like 'stay at home'/no non-essential travel will remain in law for another 3 weeks after 8th March. That said if SAGE was deciding it would probably remain in law until June!

The 'stay at home' law was among the first easements of the first lockdown, from 13th May. I'm not sure why it is being kept in place longer this time.

Hospitality reopening for outdoors seating potentially in mid-April is ok if not pushed back, but pubs really need to be allowed to serve alcohol immediately. Too slow with non-essential retail though; I think this could be brought forward a month without too much risk.

 

[Bantamzen]

As others have mentioned, it sounds as though it's very much going to be a matter of too little, too late.

We have the usual cherry-picking of sectors and activities that the health establishment approve of, and my concern is for businesses at the back of the queue, as this roadmap appears to be able to be blown off course at the drop of a hat. If there does turn out to be an increase in cases associated with one of the earlier stages, you can guarantee that it will be those businesses that are the ones penalised even more.

Unfortunately, this move still persists in the fallacy that lockdown is a "necessary evil", rather than simply being the wrong policy to start off with.

Indeed, it does all have a feeling that politicians & experts alike have made their minds up that certain sectors deserve to be penalised more than others, even though the data doesn't support these sectors being the major area of infection. I am slightly concerned that in the midst of all these restrictions, there is an element of seeing what other health policies they might try want to push through.

Labour generally continuing their theme of being not much use at all.

Labour are pointless now.

 

[Jamesrob637]

Disappointing that it looks like 'stay at home'/no non-essential travel will remain in law for another 3 weeks after 8th March. That said if SAGE was deciding it would probably remain in law until June!

The 'stay at home' law was among the first easements of the first lockdown, from 13th May. I'm not sure why it is being kept in place longer this time.

Hospitality reopening for outdoors seating potentially in mid-April is ok if not pushed back, but pubs really need to be allowed to serve alcohol immediately. Too slow with non-essential retail though; I think this could be brought forward a month without too much risk.

Non-essential retail should be reopened from the 8th even if not every business jumps on the bandwagon straightaway.

 

[Carlisle]

May for non-essential retail?

Great! A world leading vaccination program but probably the last country in Europe to re open it’s High Streets.
It appears that aside from Schools, nothing’ else will be open by Easter either.

 

[PTR 444]

I do not see any justification for leaving hairdressers closed beyond the 29th March. If they do remain closed beyond then which looks increasingly likely, then I’ll just have to bite the bullet and get my hair cut in my parents’ back garden. That is if I can travel 30 miles by train to get there without being questioned whether my journey is essential by then.

 

[Simon11]

Why doesnt the government show data of the risk of reopening hospitality and non essential retail? I suspects because the impact is low or they don't know!

As posters have said, far too slow! I hope there is a protest to move things on and MPs support it.

After five months, I would do anything for a proper haircut! The amusing side fact is that dogs can still have their hair cuts and butts shaved.....

 

[birchesgreen]

Yet despite the overly slow lifting one of the first thing I saw online today was people screaming about Boris causing Lockdown 4 in a few months. I despair I really do.

 

[philosopher]

So it could still be another 2-3 months before "non-essential" shops & the hospitality industry even begin to recover? Not only did they lose out over Christmas but could also be writing Easter & even the May bank holidays off? We've already lost over a million jobs in a year, how many more are going to be lost in the coming months?

I dread to think what the High Street will look like in a year’s time.

 

[Ianno87]

Disappointing that it looks like 'stay at home'/no non-essential travel will remain in law for another 3 weeks after 8th March. That said if SAGE was deciding it would probably remain in law until June!

The 'stay at home' law was among the first easements of the first lockdown, from 13th May. I'm not sure why it is being kept in place longer this time.

Hospitality reopening for outdoors seating potentially in mid-April is ok if not pushed back, but pubs really need to be allowed to serve alcohol immediately. Too slow with non-essential retail though; I think this could be brought forward a month without too much risk.

I do not see any justification for leaving hairdressers closed beyond the 29th March. If they do remain closed beyond then which looks increasingly likely, then I’ll just have to bite the bullet and get my hair cut in my parents’ back garden. That is if I can travel 30 miles by train to get there without being questioned whether my journey is essential by then.

BBC News article implies that "stay local" proposed to be dropped on 29th March. Which I'd take to mean that train travel outside your area for a permitted reason is OK again.

Yet despite the overly slow lifting one of the first thing I saw online today was people screaming about Boris causing Lockdown 4 in a few months. I despair I really do.

Yep, I saw too. Just wonder what these people actually want. A cautious relaxation strikes me as the most pragmatic (much as I'd personally love it to be a little bit quicker)

I dread to think what the High Street will look like in a year’s time.

Really good if you like seeing boarded up windows.

 

[Huntergreed]

If this is England’s plan, and it’s far too slow, I dread to even imagine what Sturgeon and Drakeford are going to do, as they are undoubtedly going to be even slower than this.

 

[Bantamzen]

I dread to think what the High Street will look like in a year’s time.

Pretty much as it is now, a handful of large chain "essential" stores open with everything else sporting wooden boarding covering windows & doors.

 

[philosopher]

Yet despite the overly slow lifting one of the first thing I saw online today was people screaming about Boris causing Lockdown 4 in a few months. I despair I really do.

Those who say we need a very slow easing to prevent a fourth lockdown will be the same people demanding a lockdown if and when cases start going up next autumn / winter. The thing is a slow easing will not prevent a new wave, all it will do is delay it. Last autumn almost all European countries saw a second wave despite coming out of lockdown at differing paces in the spring.

 

[yorksrob]

Indeed, it does all have a feeling that politicians & experts alike have made their minds up that certain sectors deserve to be penalised more than others, even though the data doesn't support these sectors being the major area of infection. I am slightly concerned that in the midst of all these restrictions, there is an element of seeing what other health policies they might try want to push through.


Labour are pointless now.

Yes, it wouldn't surprise me if there are some additional agendas being pushed.

 

[Bald Rick]

it really is the type of item that you do need to try before you buy. The same can be said for hairdressers.

Try before you buy for a hairdresser?

That's what the vaccines are for.

Yep. And the Government is evidently taking the view that it wants as many people vaccinated before wholesale removal of restrictions to reduce the risk of a big wave in the autumn.

 

[Bantamzen]

Yes, it wouldn't surprise me if there are some additional agendas being pushed.

I am of the conclusion that there are now.

 

[Bald Rick]

Slight change in the wording this morning, it seems. The March 29th easing now says it allows outdoor gatherigns of either 6 people or two households. That’s different from last nights report of 6 people from two households.

 

[Huntergreed]

From Ben Riley-Smith‘s (political editor for the telegraph) Twitter feed:

NEW: Many more details have now been confirmed about Boris Johnson’s reopening plan.
This is what we know. There will be four stages in the road map, announced tomorrow. They roughly align with the coming months: March, April, May, June.
There will be specific dates but they will be ‘earliest dates’. So ones that can be pushed back if the data turns bad.
To move between each stage the country will need to meet four ‘tests’, linked to data. They are...

1) Vaccine rollout is going as planned
2) Vaccine is driving down deaths / hospitalisations
3) Cases won’t overload NHS
4) New variants aren’t changing risk assessment

Stage one of the reopening will (confusingly) have two parts.

STAGE 1, PART 1: MARCH 8

- All schools in England (primary + secondary) open. Some schools may stagger class return due to testing demands.

- All school sport returns. Both outdoor and indoor (so PE class allowed). Schools will make their own calls

- Care home residents can be visited by 1 person. After test and wearing PPE they can visit inside + hold hands!

- One-on-one outdoor chat allowed, not just exercise


STAGE 1, PART 2: MARCH 29 [

- Outdoor organised sport is back! For children and adults. Team and social distanced stuff. So five-a-side football, weekend golf, tennis, hockey returns

Group outdoor meetings are back! Rule of six returns, so 6 people from up to 6 different households can meet outside.

- two different households can meet outside! So two families can get together even if they make up more than 6 people

-‘Stay at home’ order goes, @Telegraph understands. People no longer told they must stay at home by law. (BUT message is still work from home if possible).

- Also... the ‘stay in local area’ guidance will go on March 29, @Telegraph understands. It means you can drive a few hours, see someone outside, and drive back in a day without breaking rules.

NB: All these rule changes in place for Easter Sunday, Apr 4.

Specifics of the next stages (two, three and four) are being more closely guarded by No 10.

A combination of hints from Gov sources and logic from previous road maps / PM statements would suggest something like this:


STAGE TWO: Possibly April

- Shops likely to reopen. Unclear how exactly, whether it will be click and collect or limits on people coming in

- Possibly pubs / restaurants could start serving outside. (By April 15 all aged over 50 will have been offered a jab, per Gov target).

- Chance universities could be allowed to return in stage two as well. An issue lots of people asking about, we’ll know tomorrow but looks like April at earliest.

STAGE THREE: Possibly May?
- Pubs / restaurants potentially opening inside?
- Hairdressers open?

STAGE FOUR: Possibly June?
- Hotels and B&Bs allowed to open with restrictions?
- Could ‘staycations’ be allowed?
- Will households finally be able to meet indoors?

Some rules also look unlikely to change any time soon
- Keep two meters apart if poss
- Wear a mask when needed
- Work from home if poss

(https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1363618743327330307?s=21)

It looks like my cautious optimism was misguided. It seems that, despite the success of the vaccination programme and 1/3 of all adults now partially immune, we will exit lockdown more slowly and that social distancing and masks will be mandatory throughout the summer. Goodbye mental health and economy.

 

[duncanp]

If this is England’s plan, and it’s far too slow, I dread to even imagine what Sturgeon and Drakeford are going to do, as they are undoubtedly going to be even slower than this.

When the landlord of my local pub came to deliver my weekend supplies of beer on Friday, he said that what he was hearing from "..various sources within the trade" was that hospitality would open for indoor service sometime in May, with outdoor service and takeaway booze being allowed in April. I don't know where he got this information from, but the hospitality sector has been having discussions with the government, and these dates may have been intimated to then on a strictly "off the record" basis. The reason I say this is that it was only confimed on 23rd June last year that English pubs could reopen on 4th July, and yet pubs that opened on that date seemed to have a plentiful of beer, despite them saying that they needed 2 - 3 weeks advance notice.

There is every prospect of these dates being brought forward, due to the success of the vaccination program, but also because of the fact that the COVID-19 legislation needs to be renewed by the end of March. Similarly for non essential retail

By the end of March, the government will be in a position to know whether it is going to hit its' vaccination target, so I suspect there will be an announcement then about a definite date for the reopening of non essential retail and outdoor hopsitality, and an updated date for the reopening of indoor hospitality. Indeed, I wouldn't put it past the government to make this announcement on the first anniversary of the lockdown (March 23rd) if only to placate increasingly restive Conservative MPs, as well as voters in the elections at the beginning of May.

Sturgeon (assuming she is still the First Minister of Scotland by then ) and Drakeford will no doubt be different just for the sake of it. They could open up earlier than England if they perceive this to be to their electoral advantage. If the brown stuff really hits the fan for the SNP after the Alex Salmond revelations, and Sturgeon is forced to resign, the Scottish Government will need to do something to curry favour with the voters.

 

[Ianno87]

Slight change in the wording this morning, it seems. The March 29th easing now says it allows outdoor gatherigns of either 6 people or two households. That’s different from last nights report of 6 people from two households.

i.e. under the revised wording, gatherings of more than 6 are permitted, provided that between them they are from no more than two households?

 

[Bessie]

We all need to pray to the weather gods for a sunny Easter so those back garden BBQs can begin. On a separate point when do we expect travel by train purely for leisure purposes will be allowed? I’d like to think this is 29 March.

 

[initiation]

I am so angry.

What is the point in all these vaccines if we have a longer lockdown than last year. I just want to be able to meet friends and family; nosey f***ers can mind their own business and hide behind the sofa if they want.

And yes they could bring things forward but can we recall a situation where they have done that and released earlier than expected?

I am 'safe' economically, can WFH, good job and salary. I feel sorry for all those who can't legally open their business.

 

[Ianno87]

Saw this Tweet from yesterday, for some perspective:

https://twitter.com/fact_covid/status/1363441672428920833?s=20

ROADMAP PREDICTION: Many will be very angry, and call for lockdown to end straight away. Those on the opposite extreme will say we’re relaxing too fast and risking another wave. The great majority will be somewhere in-between. You won’t hear as much from them on here. END.

 

[NorthOxonian]

From Ben Riley-Smith‘s (political editor for the telegraph) Twitter feed:




(https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1363618743327330307?s=21)

It looks like my cautious optimism was misguided. It seems that, despite the success of the vaccination programme and 1/3 of all adults now partially immune, we will exit lockdown more slowly and that social distancing and masks will be mandatory throughout the summer. Goodbye mental health and economy.

Utterly unacceptable if true, though worth noting that everything after the end of Step One there is just the telegraph guessing.

You would hope the government would be pushing hard against the idea of social distancing and masks continuing after the vaccine. After all, outside the vulnerable groups, the vaccine is really being promoted as the way to get back to normal, but there is absolutely nothing normal (and never will be) about masks and distancing. Unfortunately it means the anti-vaxxers will have a field day and you'd think the government wouldn't want that.