22nd February - Roadmap out of the pandemic, lifting of restrictions.

[Bald Rick]

So.... it looks like:

Schools back in England (all years) 8 March - confirmed

Two households (up to 6 people) allowed to meet outdoors, including in private gardens, from 29 March. Organised outdoor sport permitted for all age groups from the same date. This, and further easing at later dates subject to meeting 4 tests:

1) vaccinations progressing to plan
2) evidence that vaccinations are reducing hospitalisations and deaths
3) infection rates don’t have a risk of a surge in hospital cases
4) new variants don’t pose a risk to the above.

Currently we are meeting the tests and therefore 8 March is confirmed.

On this basis I guess 19 April for meeting indoors (two households), and (possibly) pubs to open outdoor only.

 

[bengley]

Far too slow.

 

[Class 33]

The plan has four stages, with gaps of several weeks between each, Health Secretary Matt Hancock confirmed to Sophy Ridge on Sunday. At the end of the fourth step, England will be much closer to being back to normal with some important caveats, albeit with social distancing still in place and uncertainty over foreign travel.

Gaps of SEVERAL weeks between stages? That means this could run though until about August/September! Also at the end of the fourth stage, social distancing still in place?? Social distancing still being in place is hardly back to normal!! The country really needs social distancing to be axed way before then for goodness sake! For many thousands of businesses, it's not financially viable to run with social distancing measures! And social distancing is still very restrictive and hassly for many of us. And for the unemployed(like me), it's darn near impossible to find work! For me, the thought of at least another 6 or 7 months of this nonsense and hassle is not a good thought atall.

After tomorrow's announcement, with the way things are looking with these press and media reports, then it looks like this summer's festivals and events industry is going to be an absolute write-off yet again for the second year in a row. Can see there being a flood of cancellations being reported from tomorrow night and the days after. For almost all festivals, it's either no social distancing atall or no festival atall.

And there was Hancock saying just last month "Everyone's going to have a fantastic summer, doing what they all enjoy again."!!! Well it doesn't look like it does it!

 

[Bald Rick]

Far too slow.

It’s clearly going to be slow start and quicker finish. A slow start buys us a lot of protection for the autumn resurgence.

 

[philosopher]

Here's what's currently being touted in the roadmap first phase (in two parts) and the 4 "conditions" for proceeding with easements:

Covid-19: Boris Johnson to unveil 'cautious' plan to lift England's lockdown

All schools are expected to reopen on 8 March, with some outdoor socialising allowed from 29 March.

www.bbc.co.uk

I'm pleased that the conditions do not focus solely on infections, but link them to a risk of increasing hospitalisations, so they're acknowledging the role of the vaccine rollout in reducing severe illness (i.e. if infections rise that alone won't influence decisions about restrictions). However the condition about new variants really shouldn't be as much of an issue as being made out, although I'm not surprised it's mentioned.

What concerns me is that there is no mention of non essential retail or hairdressers opening which I was somewhat expecting to open by the end of March or start of April. There does really come a point where the non essential starts to come essential.

For example I really need some new trainers, while these could be bought online, this would likely involve sending the item back several times, it really is the type of item that you do need to try before you buy. The same can be said for hairdressers.

 

[backontrack]

Probably be quite a long way down the list, but I’d like to see some progress towards allowing limited or controlled attendance at sporting events and live theatre.

I've got a concert ticket for August. Hoping things will be good enough for then.

 

[brad465]

What concerns me is that there is no mention of non essential retail or hairdressers opening which I was somewhat expecting to open by the end of March or start of April. There does really come a point where the non essential starts to come essential.

For example I really need some new trainers, while these could be bought online, this would likely involve sending the item back several times, it really is the type of item that you do need to try before you buy. The same can be said for hairdressers.

Yes it doesn't look like they'll be opening then, but I'm expecting this to just be phase one as a heads up and later phases will likely be announced tomorrow. I'm guessing non-essential retail will be phase 2.

I quote this post of mine earlier in this thread, saying that just because what's being announced tomorrow is what's planned, doesn't mean changes won't happen down the line that could be for the better (or worse, although less likely the way the vaccine rollout is going so far), particularly as the effects of 1-4 groups are not fully active, and 5-9 could be in the next 2 months. Should they lead to very good stats expect a lot of pressure from those arguing the measures are disproportionately harsh.

Whatever is announced on Monday, I highly doubt it will go 100% as outlined (even if no dates are offered). Partly because nothing ever works 100% as intended, but I suspect if it's more cautious than many would like, while stats constantly improve, huge pressure from key groups and MPs, along with further non-compliance, would force a change of approach. The idea that the approach is more cautious than many would like would not necessarily emerge straight after the announcement, but as weeks go by and the measures in place appear more disproportionally harsh.

 

[londonteacher]

Sky News Lockdown Release

All schools in England will reopen to all pupils on 8 March under the prime minister's roadmap out of lockdown to be announced tomorrow, with outdoor after-school sports and activities also allowed to restart.

And on the same date, outdoor recreation with one other person will also be permitted, meaning people will be allowed to sit together in a park with a coffee, drink or picnic.

From 29 March, larger groups will be able to meet outside - including in private gardens - up to a maximum of six people or two households.

Tennis courts, golf courses and other outdoor sport facilities will also reopen on 29 March, which is the first Monday of most schools' Easter holidays.

The relaxation of measures is the first stage of a four-part roadmap expected to include the reopening of non-essential retail and hospitality in the coming months.

Sky are reporting non-essential retail and hospitality in the coming months so probably May sort of time?

 

[lxfe_mxtterz]

What concerns me is that there is no mention of non essential retail or hairdressers opening which I was somewhat expecting to open by the end of March or start of April. There does really come a point where the non essential starts to come essential.

For example I really need some new trainers, while these could be bought online, this would likely involve sending the item back several times, it really is the type of item that you do need to try before you buy. The same can be said for hairdressers.

Agree with this. I'm in desperate need for a hair cut and as ridiculous as it sounds, it's bringing my mood down significantly as I slowly end up looking like some long-forgotten mess. On top of this, my only pair of shoes have gaping holes in them and, as you say, it's incredibly difficult to buy shoes online as they all fit differently.

Furthermore, I've also been trying to purchase a gilet for the past half a year (delayed by lockdowns) and it has been a real pain having to phone the company up countless times to ask for all the different measurements. If I do just buy it and it doesn't fit, by the time I send it back they'll be out of stock and I'll have to wait months for the next batch to come in (again, delayed by lockdowns) - and thus repeat ad infinitum. Soon I'll have nothing to wear!

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

Sky News Lockdown Release

Sky are reporting non-essential retail and hospitality in the coming months so probably May sort of time?

May for non-essential retail? What do SAGE and the government think people do when they're in shops? Go round kissing everyone?

I agree with the other comments here - far too slow, of course there is the option to bring dates forward but even then it will be rather slow. If this is what cautious means in England then I have absolutely no hope for what the Scottish government will announce on Tuesday... The impression I get is that they seem to think it's completely ok to have the adult population under house arrest whilst all schools go back and nothing else.

 

[londonteacher]

May for non-essential retail?

What do SAGE and the government think people do when they're in shops? Go round kissing everyone?

That's my prediction based on the article.

 

[yorkie]

This really is totally unacceptable; it's far too slow.

The Government is pandering to the "Zero Covid" fruitcakes, though not enough to avoid them being very angry that the Government is opening up too soon.

Our society remains deeply divided.

So, from 8th March, what most people are already doing will be legalised. And from 29th March what many people are already doing will also be legalised. Great (!)

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

That's my prediction based on the article.

There seems to be varying guesses by different media outlets - some articles saying end of March, some saying mid-April, others saying May.

 

[londonteacher]

What do SAGE and the government

I wouldn't blame SAGE as the government could choose to ignore them.

 

[Tomp94]

social distancing to continue indefinitely. Why?
how can leisure, hospitality and other such sectors function properly with this damaging rule?
If by July everyone has had the vaccine, why does SD need to continue. The threat of new variants doesn’t cut it, there will ***always*** be the threat of new variants unless COVID is eradicated completely which it’s not going to be.

 

[Yew]

So phase one is basically nothing for all adults then? Completely unacceptable, 'Phase Two' is the absolute minimum that could possibly be considered anywhere near reasonable.

It’s clearly going to be slow start and quicker finish. A slow start buys us a lot of protection for the autumn resurgence.

That's what the vaccines are for.

 

[Watershed]

The government have this fascination with opening up slowly so that it can be "irreversible". Except they admit that it's not irreversible at all because they'd put us all straight back into lockdown if it's "necessary".

Even if one accepts the premise of restrictions to reduce the spread - an idea through which the vaccination programme's success drives a coach and horses - the government plainly know and admit that they are still "forbidding" things which make very little difference.

For example, "banning" outdoor recreation, or indeed meeting people outside at all. People don't stop wanting to do these things just because it's suddenly illegal (or not - the poor drafting of many of the laws has left "banned" things legal!).

They will just do them anyway and in ways which are less safe - e.g. meeting indoors because they can't be seen together outdoors. The key focus should be on providing reasonable, and where necessary regulated, alternatives to indoor gatherings between different households.

There is also the matter of non-essential retail and, to a lesser extent hospitality. Both of these are significant contributors to the economy but cost very little in terms of infection to reopen. We know this from a year's worth of data over the location of outbreaks; there can be no suggestion it remains an unknown.

The government is being far too cautious because it is pandering to the masses whose very fear it instilled a year ago, and has stoked since. Sadly Bojo et al have shown no intention of going against public sentiment, and pleasantly surprising people, by demonstrating that reopening much of life is relatively risk-free.

The only thing I am glad to hear is some approximation of the criteria for continuing to ease lockdown, but even now they are very vague and still make reference to the number of deaths. That is, in fact, completely the wrong figure to be focusing on, as it simply reflects what happened 1-2 months ago.

 

[bramling]

This really is totally unacceptable; it's far too slow.

The Government is pandering to the "Zero Covid" fruitcakes, though not enough to avoid them being very angry that the Government is opening up too soon.

Our society remains deeply divided.

So, from 8th March, what most people are already doing will be legalised. And from 29th March what many people are already doing will also be legalised. Great (!)

It does seem that pretty much anything is “too soon” for some people.

I can see no reason why non-essential retail couldn’t have happened around the same time as schools.

As you say they are simply legalising what many are already doing. This isn’t wonderful as it’s simply causing many people to lose respect for law. Apart from stuff regarding mass gatherings (which to be fair I find rather easier to justify), how much enforcement is happening at the moment? Round here there seems to be none at all.

 

[DustyBin]

I wouldn't blame SAGE as the government could choose to ignore them.

I absolutely blame SAGE, they know exactly what they’re doing. We have a pathetically inept government and these “experts” are taking full advantage. The government are guilty of being incompetent, SAGE are guilty of leading them by the nose. The whole lot are responsible for this mess and should (but probably won’t be) held accountable.

 

[londonteacher]

I absolutely blame SAGE, they know exactly what they’re doing. We have a pathetically inept government and these “experts” are taking full advantage. The government are guilty of being incompetent, SAGE are guilty of leading them by the nose. The whole lot are responsible for this mess and should (but probably won’t be) held accountable.

My point was that the government can listen to SAGE but then turn around and say "Well let's do it our way instead".

 

[Class 33]

social distancing to continue indefinitely. Why?
how can leisure, hospitality and other such sectors function properly with this damaging rule?
If by July everyone has had the vaccine, why does SD need to continue. The threat of new variants doesn’t cut it, there will ***always*** be the threat of new variants unless COVID is eradicated completely which it’s not going to be.

Don't know about if social distancing is to continue indefinitely. But it looks like they're planning on dragging this hugely damaging(as you quite rightly also say) nonsense out until at least August or September. Many businesses in the hospitality, leisure, travel and various other sectors just won't be able to survive financially too much longer with this stupid nonsense. I saw on the news a week or so ago, one pub manager saying many in the hospitality sector can survive only a few more months now. If they can't reopen fully without social distancing within just a few months from now, many of them will go under. It seems Johnson and his cabinet don't seem very concerned about this!

Will wait for today's announcement for absolute confirmation of what Johnson's intended plans are for the coming months. But if it's as bad as it's currently being reported with this far too slow reopening plan and social distancing nonsense still dragging on with no apparent definite end date in sight, then I will be writing to him and numerous MP's to complain.

 

[bramling]

The government have this fascination with opening up slowly so that it can be "irreversible". Except they admit that it's not irreversible at all because they'd put us all straight back into lockdown if it's "necessary".

Even if one accepts the premise of restrictions to reduce the spread - an idea through which the vaccination programme's success drives a coach and horses - the government plainly know and admit that they are still "forbidding" things which make very little difference.

For example, "banning" outdoor recreation, or indeed meeting people outside at all. People don't stop wanting to do these things just because it's suddenly illegal (or not - the poor drafting of many of the laws has left "banned" things legal!).

They will just do them anyway and in ways which are less safe - e.g. meeting indoors because they can't be seen together outdoors. The key focus should be on providing reasonable, and where necessary regulated, alternatives to indoor gatherings between different households.

There is also the matter of non-essential retail and, to a lesser extent hospitality. Both of these are significant contributors to the economy but cost very little in terms of infection to reopen. We know this from a year's worth of data over the location of outbreaks; there can be no suggestion it remains an unknown.

The government is being far too cautious because it is pandering to the masses whose very fear it instilled a year ago, and has stoked since. Sadly Bojo et al have shown no intention of going against public sentiment by demonstrating that reopening much of life is relatively risk-free.

The only thing I am glad to hear is some approximation of the criteria for continuing to ease lockdown, but even now they are very vague and still make reference to the number of deaths. That is, in fact, completely the wrong figure to be focusing on, as it simply reflects what happened 1-2 months ago.

“Irreversible” means nothing. It’s happened three times now, people have essentially accepted it, anything they say about it being unrepeatable or the last time is utterly meaningless.

The genie went out of the bottle when lockdown progressed from being an emergency measure to becoming a policy tool.

 

[SouthEastBuses]

Anyway my hopes include:

This coming week: Being able to travel short distances for leisure, no matter whether by car or public transport

8th March: Schools and non essential services reopen

Two weeks later: People can now go on holiday either domestically or abroad, with travel corridors with low risk countries beginning once again. This means people will be able to skip quarantine, in time for the Easter holidays.

End of Summer/Beginning of Autumn: Complete removal of restrictions such as masks and social distancing. Not just for the UK but for the rest of Europe too.

 

[Watershed]

I absolutely blame SAGE, they know exactly what they’re doing. We have a pathetically inept government and these “experts” are taking full advantage. The government are guilty of being incompetent, SAGE are guilty of leading them by the nose. The whole lot are responsible for this mess and should (but probably won’t be) held accountable.

They are simply doing what they have been asked to do, which is to advise on what, in a technical sense, will minimise transmission of the virus.

There is clearly no-one with a proper voice at SAGE who has any idea how to translate these theoretical concepts into restrictions that people will follow and which therefore work in practice.

It's the government that should be held accountable, for giving far too much attention to the scientists with their heads in a utopian model, and for not listening to those experts who explain the severe costs of lockdown.

 

[DustyBin]

The government have this fascination with opening up slowly so that it can be "irreversible". Except they admit that it's not irreversible at all because they'd put us all straight back into lockdown if it's "necessary".

Even if one accepts the premise of restrictions to reduce the spread - an idea through which the vaccination programme's success drives a coach and horses - the government plainly know and admit that they are still "forbidding" things which make very little difference.

For example, "banning" outdoor recreation, or indeed meeting people outside at all. People don't stop wanting to do these things just because it's suddenly illegal (or not - the poor drafting of many of the laws has left "banned" things legal!).

They will just do them anyway and in ways which are less safe - e.g. meeting indoors because they can't be seen together outdoors. The key focus should be on providing reasonable, and where necessary regulated, alternatives to indoor gatherings between different households.

There is also the matter of non-essential retail and, to a lesser extent hospitality. Both of these are significant contributors to the economy but cost very little in terms of infection to reopen. We know this from a year's worth of data over the location of outbreaks; there can be no suggestion it remains an unknown.

The government is being far too cautious because it is pandering to the masses whose very fear it instilled a year ago, and has stoked since. Sadly Bojo et al have shown no intention of going against public sentiment, and pleasantly surprising people, by demonstrating that reopening much of life is relatively risk-free.

The only thing I am glad to hear is some approximation of the criteria for continuing to ease lockdown, but even now they are very vague and still make reference to the number of deaths. That is, in fact, completely the wrong figure to be focusing on, as it simply reflects what happened 1-2 months ago.

The only bit of this I disagree with is that the government are pandering to the masses. I’m not convinced the majority support this nonsense anymore, there is a definite change of mood. And that’s before any talk of the economic impact. I think there are a lot of people out there who are scared of being labelled as “granny killers” and there are an awful lot of hypocrites who say they support restrictions whilst happily breaking the rules themselves. Deep down, I think the majority have had enough.

 

[yorkie]

Anyway my hopes include:

This coming week: Being able to travel short distances for leisure, no matter whether by car or public transport

From 8th March they will either (a) remove the requirement to be out of the home for a specified reason or (b) add more reasons to the list to enable visiting open air places for physical or mental wellbeing (as was done last May)

The only bit of this I disagree with is that the government are pandering to the masses.

I agree; They certainly aren't! They might erroneously think they are, however.

 

[Watershed]

The only bit of this I disagree with is that the government are pandering to the masses. I’m not convinced the majority support this nonsense anymore, there is a definite change of mood. And that’s before any talk of the economic impact. I think there are a lot of people out there who are scared of being labelled as “granny killers” and there are an awful lot of hypocrites who say they support restrictions whilst happily breaking the rules themselves. Deep down, I think the majority have had enough.

It's probably a great deal less of the population compared to even just 2 months ago, that's true. But sadly I do fear that it is a massive percentage of the population that are, at least nominally, in favour of the restrictions. For as long as that doesn't change, we will continue to either labour under restrictions, or under the threat of them being reimposed at any minute.

People have been brainwashed into thinking that onerous impositions into every aspect of our life are the only way of stopping Covid. It worked for the first wave so many see it as the default answer. Anyone who suggests otherwise is branded a conspiracy theorist, an antivaxxer etc. You just have to look at the amount of "alternative history" about Sweden's approach, or the selective publication of news from countries with fewer restrictions.

I think it will not be until years into the future, when inquiries are held about everything that has gone on throughout this fiasco, that the public finally learns and accepts that much the same outcome could have been reached through significantly less restrictive rules.

You're quite right on the issue of the "silent objectors" or those who support restrictions as long as they don't affect their own lives. I think many of these have been kept quiet by the continued availability of furlough and other financial support schemes. Sadly I don't feel that any of those are ending any time soon - the government will just keep on printing the money. Inflation is near zero despite some of the greatest quantitative easing ever seen.

 

[DustyBin]

My point was that the government can listen to SAGE but then turn around and say "Well let's do it our way instead".

Apologies, reading that back it sounds like I’m having a go at you which wasn’t my intention. I know where you’re coming from and I agree, but I don’t believe SAGE et al are simply doing as they were asked. They consistently present the worst case scenario which at best could be seen as backside covering but is unacceptable. Again, none of this excuses the government who appear to be completely clueless.

They are simply doing what they have been asked to do, which is to advise on what, in a technical sense, will minimise transmission of the virus.

There is clearly no-one with a proper voice at SAGE who has any idea how to translate these theoretical concepts into restrictions that people will follow and which therefore work in practice.

It's the government that should be held accountable, for giving far too much attention to the scientists with their heads in a utopian model, and for not listening to those experts who explain the severe costs of lockdown.

As above; the buck stops with the government but that doesn’t excuse those who are advising them.

 

[MDB1images]

This really is totally unacceptable; it's far too slow.

The Government is pandering to the "Zero Covid" fruitcakes, though not enough to avoid them being very angry that the Government is opening up too soon.

Our society remains deeply divided.

So, from 8th March, what most people are already doing will be legalised. And from 29th March what many people are already doing will also be legalised. Great (!)

If that is all that's planned to happen then large amounts of people who I suspect have followed the rules and abided by the lockdown and Tier restrictions will pretty much start to self assess the risk and decide for themselves.

 

[Chester1]

It does seem to be based the assumption that they haven't got a hope in hell of enforcing travel restrictions over Easter so they are keeping businesses closed until afterwards.

The idea that most people aren't already using exercise as an excuse for general outdoor socialising is bonkers.

Edit: I suspect stay at home will continue in law until 29th March because its the only thing that bans non essential international travel. Everything else nudges people away from it with practical and financial obstacles but doesn't stop people going on holiday.