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22nd February - Roadmap out of the pandemic, lifting of restrictions.

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duncanp

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Oh god. Just as I've been typing this, I see BREAKING NEWS of "Brazil COVID 'variant of concern' discovered in UK, health officials say". Oh for god's sake! Now what's going to happen next with the planned easing of lockdown?!

I think this news release has been timed to keep up the fear factor amongst the public.

As I posted on the lockdown support conversation, it is not certain that existing vaccines are less effective against this new variant - more work is needed to determine this. So it could all be a fuss about nothing.

Also, as the UK has some of the most advanced genomic sequencing capabilities in the world, it is inevitable that we are going to find new variants. We cannot delay the easing of lockdown every time a new variant is discovered.
 
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Darandio

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Oh god. Just as I've been typing this, I see BREAKING NEWS of "Brazil COVID 'variant of concern' discovered in UK, health officials say". Oh for god's sake! Now what's going to happen next with the planned easing of lockdown?!

Press conference tomorrow with some made up slides and figures over-egging now transmissable and dangerous it is. Tell us all not to blow it.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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The decrease in reported deaths was 32.3% yesterday, now after announcing 144 deaths today, the last 7 days have seen the rate of decline increase to 33.5%, practically a third. Come Easter I can see some serious questions about restrictions being asked if this keeps up, I wouldn't be surprised if daily deaths are around a dozen by then. Hospital admission drops are staying around 22%, but with over 20 million first vaccine doses exponential decay could soon be defied here as well.
As BoJo only controls England look at the English hospital stats. Admissions down to 832 (25/2) which is lowest since 18/10. Hospitalised dropped 3.2k last 7 days 3.3k previous 7 days so an accelerating decline. At regional level there bigger deviations emerging with some areas showing increasing weekly drops. As ive previously posted CO-CIN data backs this up with decreasing times of hospital occupancy showing with 1 in 4 admissions being of 24-48hrs duration down from 4-5 days in January. I also suspect that as beds have been freed up patients that could be accommodated previously are now being admitted as oxygen therapy remains one of the best treatments so that may slow down admission decline.

CRG are keeping a low profile and probably wise as the balance of opinion is still weighted to locktivists but as the data becomes demonstrably clear they need to pile on the pressure to accelerate relaxation.
 

brad465

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I have said elsewhere that Boris will want to confirm that stage 2 of lockdown easing can go ahead before the end of March, in order to persuade restive Tory MPs to renew the Coronavirus legislation. This is one week earlier than planned under the roadmap.

Similarly he will want to confirm the go ahead for stage 3 before the local and national elections, in order to persuade restive voters to back the Conservatives.
If by stage 2 you mean all the things planned to be eased from the 12th April we'd be talking 2 weeks earlier than planned under the roadmap, unless you're referring to part 2 of stage 1, which is currently the 29th March.

Oh god. Just as I've been typing this, I see BREAKING NEWS of "Brazil COVID 'variant of concern' discovered in UK, health officials say". Oh for god's sake! Now what's going to happen next with the planned easing of lockdown?!
Press conference tomorrow with some made up slides and figures over-egging now transmissable and dangerous it is. Tell us all not to blow it.
In contrast, stories around testing in areas for the South Africa variant have disappeared from news recently, it's possible they may eventually say the same about this one, but we'll have to wait and see. Either way, it questions the effectiveness of the PR quarantine measures they supposedly imposed a fortnight ago.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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In contrast, stories around testing in areas for the South Africa variant have disappeared from news recently, it's possible they may eventually say the same about this one, but we'll have to wait and see. Either way, it questions the effectiveness of the PR quarantine measures they supposedly imposed a fortnight ago.
The variant concern report produced by cov-lineages.org still shows relatively low prevalence of the Brazil variant worldwide compared to the Kent variant but for sure they will use to pour cold water on any good news.
 

duncanp

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If by stage 2 you mean all the things planned to be eased from the 12th April we'd be talking 2 weeks earlier than planned under the roadmap, unless you're referring to part 2 of stage 1, which is currently the 29th March.

By stage 2 I meant the easings planned for 12th April.

According to the roadmap, however, the government is only going to confirm the go ahead for each stage a week in advance, which in this case would be 5th April, so that they can "..study the data.." regarding the previous lockdown easing. But the Coronavirus legislation has to be renewed before 31st March, so it would placate restive Tory MPs if Boris could confirm the go ahead for stage 2 before the parliamentary vote.

Similarly with stage 3 on 17th May. The go ahead for this stage is due to be confirmed on 10th May, which is four days after the local and national elections.

If Boris could confirm stage 3, particularly the reopening of pubs indoors, before the elections, it would increase the feelgood factor and make people more inclined to vote Conservative.
 

greyman42

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Instead of being a big bang return to normality where everything goes to how it was in 2019 coupled with a lot of pent up partying in June, I think life will gradually return to normal from March onwards as restrictions ease and people gradually regain their confidence.
I don't know what you mean by people gradually regaining their confidence. As far as i can see, people cannot wait for all restrictions to be lifted.
 

birchesgreen

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I’m thinking in the workplace (unlike when I phoned a utility company this Friday just gone, and the person I spoke to was clearly on a beach and rather disgruntled at being disturbed!).
Bad customer service was of course non-existent prior to March 2020.

If WFH is not considered proper work that's fine, we shouldn't have to pay proper taxes then either. Fairs fair yeah?
 

Ianno87

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Bad customer service was of course non-existent prior to March 2020.

If WFH is not considered proper work that's fine, we shouldn't have to pay proper taxes then either. Fairs fair yeah?

People seem to think Working from Home and furlough are the same thing...

For 11 months I've been doing a full time job and looking after my children simultaneously. But that's not "proper work", apparently.
 

birchesgreen

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People seem to think Working from Home and furlough are the same thing...

For 11 months I've been doing a full time job and looking after my children simultaneously. But that's not "proper work", apparently.
I think a job isn't a proper job unless you spend a couple of hours a day in a crowded train carriage (or in a traffic jam) and buy a sandwich and coffee for lunch.
 

Bald Rick

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The decrease in reported deaths was 32.3% yesterday, now after announcing 144 deaths today, the last 7 days have seen the rate of decline increase to 33.5%, practically a third. Come Easter I can see some serious questions about restrictions being asked if this keeps up, I wouldn't be surprised if daily deaths are around a dozen by then. Hospital admission drops are staying around 22%, but with over 20 million first vaccine doses exponential decay could soon be defied here as well.

Rightly or wrongly, it’s the number of people in hospital that is the critical measure, as that drives wider healthcare provision. As @Nicholas Lewis says this is also reducing, but not as fast as death rates. The number of people in hospital with COVID has been falling by 20% (+/-1%) for nearly a month now. If it continues at this rate we’ll be at 4,000 by April 12th. Of course that may well be bettered, and I hope it is. Nevertheless, there’s a long way to go on this metric yet.

At 3m vaccinations per week (say) that would take it to about 47m by the end of April, maybe everyone over the age of 25 although that may be skewed by all sorts of factors, reluctance of some communities / groups to have the vaccine, ongoing supply etc ? Be interesting to see what people's views will be then. Happy or impatient ? Scotrail12 interesting that - prudence ?

Don’t forget the second doses, which will be picking up quickly within a few weeks. By end of April we will be well into the 40-50 age group with first dose, possibly into the 30-40 Group, and getting close to all the over 75s / healthcare / care home workers with second dose.
 

SouthEastBuses

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So, what's your recommendation guys?

Should I travel by car for day trips outside of my local area on the 8th of March or wait until the 29th of March?
 

bramling

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So, what's your recommendation guys?

Should I travel by car for day trips outside of my local area on the 8th of March or wait until the 29th of March?

If it were me ... I’d be inclined to do it. I’d avoid honeypot sites like beaches and some of the obvious beauty spots though.

One wonders to what extent the hotels which are open (in other words Premier Inn etc) are actually enforcing whether someone has “legitimate” reasons to be staying. Tick box on the booking page?
 

Jimini

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One wonders to what extent the hotels which are open (in other words Premier Inn etc) are actually enforcing whether someone has “legitimate” reasons to be staying. Tick box on the booking page?

I’ve stayed at a few Premier Inns in both the first lockdown and the current one, and I’ve had to provide my key worker status paperwork on each occasion to them before being allowed to check in.
 

Mills444

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So, what's your recommendation guys?

Should I travel by car for day trips outside of my local area on the 8th of March or wait until the 29th of March?
I mean we can't be seen encouraging lawbreaking :), but I've travelled most days either to Weymouth or Dorchester for deliveries and picking up and not one whiff of a police car. So it's really up to you.
 

yorkie

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So, what's your recommendation guys?

Should I travel by car for day trips outside of my local area on the 8th of March or wait until the 29th of March?
My recommendation is to adhere to the law; the law allows you to leave your home with a reasonable excuse. Various reasonable excuses exist. Providing you are complying with this, you are good to go. If you are not, don't go!


Restrictions on leaving home

5.—(1) No person may leave or be outside of the place where they are living without reasonable excuse.

(2) For the purposes of paragraph (1)—

(a)the circumstances in which a person has a reasonable excuse include where one of the exceptions set out in regulation 6 applies;

(b)the place where a person is living includes the premises where they live together with any garden, yard, passage, stair, garage, outhouse or other appurtenance of such premises.

(3) This regulation does not apply to any person who is homeless.
Exceptions: leaving home

6.—(1) These are the exceptions referred to in regulation 5.
Exception 1: leaving home necessary for certain purposes

(2) Exception 1 is that it is reasonably necessary for the person concerned (“P”) to leave or be outside the place where P is living (“P’s home”)—

(a)to buy goods or obtain services from any business or service listed in Part 3 of the Schedule, for—

(i)P or for those in the same household,

(ii)vulnerable persons, or

(iii)persons in the same household as a vulnerable person;

(b)to obtain money from or deposit money with any business listed in paragraph 43 or 44 of the Schedule;

(c)to take exercise outside—

(i)alone,

(ii)with—

(aa)one or more members of their household, their linked household, or

(bb)where exercise is being taken as part of providing informal childcare for a child aged 13 or under, one or more members of their linked childcare household, or

(iii)in a public outdoor place, with one other person who is not a member of their household, their linked household or their linked childcare household,

and paragraph (3) applies in determining whether a person is complying with the limits in this sub-paragraph;

(d)to visit a public outdoor place for the purposes of open air recreation—

(i)alone,

(ii)with—

(aa)one or more members of their household, their linked household, or

(bb)where exercise is being taken as part of providing informal childcare for a child aged 13 or under, one or more members of their linked childcare household, or

(iii)with one other person who is not a member of their household or their linked household,

and paragraph (3) applies in determining whether a person is complying with the limits in this sub-paragraph;

(e)to attend a place of worship;

(f)to attend an event commemorating Remembrance Sunday or to attend the gathering referred in regulation 11(18)(a)(ii);

(g)to undertake any of the following activities in connection with the purchase, sale, letting or rental of a residential property—

(i)visiting estate or letting agents, developer sales offices or show homes;

(ii)viewing residential properties to look for a property to buy or to rent;

(iii)preparing a residential property to move in;

(iv)moving house;

(v)visiting a residential property to undertake any activities required for the rental or sale of that property;

(h)to visit a member of a household which is a linked household in relation to P’s household;

(i)to collect food, drink or other goods which have been ordered from a business, or to access goods or services which are provided, in any way permitted by regulation 17 or 18;

(j)to visit a waste disposal or recycling centre.

(3) For the purposes of determining whether a person is complying with the limits in—

(a)paragraph (2)(c)(ii) and (d)(ii), no account is to be taken of any person who is present as a carer for a person with a disability who needs continuous care (a “carer”),

(b)paragraph (2)(c)(iii) and (d)(iii), no account is to be taken of a carer or a child below the age of five,

provided that, in either case, there are no more than two people present in the capacity of carer.
Exception 2: work, voluntary services, education and training etc

(4) Exception 2 is that it is reasonably necessary for P to leave or be outside P’s home—

(a)for the purposes of work or to provide voluntary or charitable services, where it is not reasonably possible for P to work, or to provide those services, from home;

(b)for the purposes of education or training;

(c)to provide care or assistance, including relevant personal care within the meaning of paragraph 7(3B) of Schedule 4 to the Safeguarding Vulnerable Groups Act 2006(1), to a vulnerable person;

(d)to provide emergency assistance to any person;

(e)to fulfil a legal obligation, including attending court or satisfying bail conditions, or to participate in legal proceedings;

(f)to access critical public services, including—

(i)social services;

(ii)services provided by the Department for Work and Pensions;

(iii)services provided to victims (including victims of crime);

(iv)asylum and immigration services and interviews;

(g)to access services provided by voluntary or charitable services, including food banks.
Exception 3: elite athletes

(5) Exception 3 is that P is an elite sportsperson, a coach of an elite sportsperson, or (in the case of an elite sportsperson who is under the age of 18), a parent of the elite sportsperson, and it is reasonably necessary for P to leave or be outside P’s home for the purposes of training or competition.
Exception 4: medical need etc

(6) Exception 4 is that it is reasonably necessary for P to leave or be outside P’s home—

(a)to seek medical assistance, including to take any medical tests, be vaccinated or access any of the services referred to in paragraph 47 of the Schedule;

(b)to donate blood or attend medical trials;

(c)to avoid injury or illness or to escape a risk of harm;

(d)to attend a person giving birth (“M”) at M’s request;

(e)to visit a person (“V”) receiving treatment in a hospital or staying in a hospice or care home, or to accompany V to a medical appointment and P is—

(i)a member of V’s household,

(ii)a close family member of V, or

(iii)a friend of V.
Exception 5: Support and respite

(7) Exception 5 is that it is reasonably necessary for P to leave or be outside P’s home—

(a)to attend a meeting of a support group which is permitted to meet under regulation 11(6);

(b)for the following purposes—

(i)respite care being provided for a vulnerable person or a person with a disability, or

(ii)a short break being provided in respect of a looked after child (within the meaning of section 22 of the Children Act 1989(2)).
Exception 6: Death bed visit

(8) Exception 6 is that it is reasonably necessary for P to leave or be outside P’s home to visit a person (“D”) whom P reasonably believes is dying, and P is—

(a)a member of D’s household,

(b)a close family member of D, or

(c)a friend of D.
Exception 7: funerals etc

(9) Exception 7 is that it is reasonably necessary for P to leave or be outside P’s home—

(a)to attend a funeral,

(b)to attend a commemorative event celebrating the life of a person who has died, or

(c)to visit a burial ground or garden of remembrance, to pay respects to a member of P’s household, a family member or friend.
Exception 8: marriages and civil partnerships

(10) Exception 8 is that it is reasonably necessary for P to leave or be outside P’s home to attend a marriage ceremony, a civil partnership ceremony or an alternative wedding ceremony permitted under regulation 11(11).

(11) For the purposes of this exception an “alternative wedding ceremony” is a ceremony based on a person’s faith or belief or lack of belief, to mark the union of two people, other than a ceremony conducted for a purpose mentioned in regulation 11(11)(a)(i) or (ii).
Exception 9: children

(12) Exception 9 is that it is reasonably necessary for P to leave or be outside P’s home—

(a)for the purposes of arrangements for access to, and contact between, parents and a child where the child does not live in the same household as their parents or one of their parents;

(b)for the purposes of arrangements for contact between siblings where they do not live in the same household and one or more of them is—

(i)a child looked after by a local authority, within the meaning of section 22 of the Children Act 1989, or

(ii)a relevant child, within the meaning of section 23A(3) of that Act;

(c)for the purposes of arrangements for prospective adopters (including their household) to meet a child or children who may be placed with the prospective adopters as provided for by an adoption placement plan drawn up in accordance with the Adoption Agencies Regulations 2005(4) (see regulation 35(2) of those Regulations);

(d)to access educational facilities, or to accompany a child to those facilities where P is the parent or has parental responsibility for, or care of, the child in question;

(e)subject to paragraph (13), for the purposes of—

(i)childcare provided by a person registered under Part 3 of the Childcare Act 2006(5);

(ii)supervised activities for children;

(f)for the purposes of informal childcare, for children aged 13 or under, provided by a member of a household to a member of their linked childcare household (see regulation 13).

(13) Paragraph (12)(e) only applies where the childcare is reasonably necessary to enable a parent, or a person who has parental responsibility for, or care of, the child in question, to work, search for work or to undertake training or education.
Exception 10: Animal welfare

(14) Exception 10 is that it is reasonably necessary for P to leave or be outside P’s home—

(a)to attend veterinary services to seek advice about the health and welfare of a pet or other animal owned or cared for by P, or for the treatment of such a pet or animal;

(b)to attend to the care of or exercise of a pet or other animal owned or cared for by P.
Exception 11: Returning home

(15) Exception 11 is that it is reasonably necessary for P to be outside P’s home to enable P to return home from any place where P was on holiday immediately before these Regulations came into force.
Exception 12: Prison visits

(16) Exception 12 is that it is reasonably necessary for P to leave or be outside P’s home to visit a person (“VP”) living in criminal justice accommodation, where P is—

(a)a close family member of VP, or

(b)a friend of VP.
Exception 13: Other visits

(17) Exception 13 is that it is reasonably necessary for P to leave or be outside P’s home for the purposes of a visit permitted under regulation 11(10).
(1)

2006 c. 47. Paragraph 7(3B) was substituted, with sub-paragraphs (1) to (3) and (3A) to (3E), for sub-paragraphs (1) to (3) by section 66 of the Protection of Freedoms Act 2012 (c. 9).

The law allows you to leave your home for any of the above reasons; there is no distance limit.

To give one example if you are bubbling with someone who lives a few hundred miles away, it is legitimate and lawful to travel to be with them (assuming the eligibility criteria are met)
 
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Cdd89

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I’ve stayed at a few Premier Inns in both the first lockdown and the current one, and I’ve had to provide my key worker status paperwork on each occasion to them before being allowed to check in.

Except work (and it doesn’t need to be essential work) is only one of many reasons someone may stay in a hotel. Are they alleging only key workers can stay?

If you carelessly miss the last train home, or drive somewhere and drink alcohol, exception (i) would immediately apply in my understanding?

https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/1374
provide accommodation for any person who—

(i)is unable to return to their main residence;

(ii)uses that accommodation as their main residence;

(iii)needs accommodation for the purposes of a house move;

(iv)needs accommodation to attend a funeral or following a bereavement of a close family member or friend;

(v)needs accommodation to attend a commemorative event to celebrate the life of a person who has died;

(vi)needs accommodation to attend a medical appointment, or to receive treatment;

[F153(via)needs accommodation for the purposes of access to, and contact between, parents and a child where the child does not live in the same household as their parents or one of their parents;]

(vii)is a carer of a vulnerable person or a person who has a disability and needs respite;

(viii)is isolating themselves from others as required by law;

(ix)is an elite athlete or the coach of an elite athlete and needs accommodation for the purposes of training or competition or, where an elite athlete is a child, their parent,

[F154(x)needs accommodation to visit a person who is dying,]

(b)to provide accommodation for any person who needs accommodation for the purposes of their work or to provide voluntary or charitable services,

(c)to provide accommodation for any person who needs accommodation for the purposes of education or training of a kind mentioned in paragraph 4(4) or, where that person is a child, their parent,

(d)to provide accommodation for the purposes of a women's refuge or a vulnerable person's refuge,

(e)to provide accommodation or support services for the homeless,

(f)to provide accommodation for any person who was staying in that accommodation immediately before these Regulations came into force or (if later) immediately before the time when the area in which the accommodation is located became part of the Tier 3 area,

(g)to provide accommodation for any person who is staying in that accommodation in order to provide care or assistance to a vulnerable person or a person who has a disability who is staying in the same accommodation,

(h)to host blood donation sessions or food banks, or

(i)for any purpose requested by the Secretary of State or a local authority.
 

Bertie the bus

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You can't seriously be suggesting driving somewhere to have a drink during lockdown and being over the limit would be considered a valid reason for staying in a hotel.

Exception i obviously means can't return home due to something like flooding, i.e. the home is not in a state to return to.
 

Cdd89

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You can't seriously be suggesting driving somewhere to have a drink during lockdown and being over the limit would be considered a valid reason for staying in a hotel.
Of course I wasn’t, but it wasn’t intended to be facetious - what else can someone in that situation do?

I don’t agree exception (i) obviously means the problem has to be intrinsic to the physical state of the property. If the draftsmen wanted it be so then it would have been worded more specifically. As it stands it could relate to almost anything and I’d suggest has been written accordingly to account for any form of unforeseen issue.
 

bramling

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You can't seriously be suggesting driving somewhere to have a drink during lockdown and being over the limit would be considered a valid reason for staying in a hotel.

Exception i obviously means can't return home due to something like flooding, i.e. the home is not in a state to return to.

What would happen if you were to drive somewhere for the purposes of exercise or buying something from a local business, then suffer a migraine, causing blurred vision meaning you couldn’t drive? Or have to take some medication labelled as making you drowsy?

That would seem to meet the requirement listed above.
 

yorkie

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Breaking news from Adam Brooks on Twitter:
*BREAKING* 1/3 The reason there is not a Substantial Meal rule in current road map. Someone in Hospitality stood up to the unscientific restrictions & won. ALL future restrictions imposed ,will have to be backed up with evidence! Small win with HUGE consequences @Sacha_Lord

*BREAKING* 2/3 I am pleased to have been speaking with @Sacha_Lord & made aware of his NEW fight against the delayed opening of Hospitality. A challenge will be made to allow us to open at the SAME TIME as Non-Essential retail Sacha will be donating his court costs to charity

SUMMARY 3/3

  • Substantial meal rule will NEVER be brought back
  • Any future restrictions MUST be evidence based,or get immediately challenged in the Courts.
  • April 12th “Outdoor only” restriction will NOW be challenged & determined by the Courts.
  • Curfew gone for good

Good news.

What would happen if you were to drive somewhere for the purposes of exercise or buying something from a local business, then suffer a migraine, causing blurred vision meaning you couldn’t drive? Or have to take some medication labelled as making you drowsy?

That would seem to meet the requirement listed above.
Yes I think it would.

Obviously any such booking would be made at very short notice!

I don't know what you mean by people gradually regaining their confidence. As far as i can see, people cannot wait for all restrictions to be lifted.
Very much depends on the person. Most people are in the latter category, but some are still in the former.
 
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Bertie the bus

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What would happen if you were to drive somewhere for the purposes of exercise or buying something from a local business, then suffer a migraine, causing blurred vision meaning you couldn’t drive? Or have to take some medication labelled as making you drowsy?

That would seem to meet the requirement listed above.
This is getting surreal. You drive to the local supermarket, get a debilitating migraine and so need to book into a hotel. I’m sure that sort of thing happens constantly.
 

Cdd89

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This is getting surreal. You drive to the local supermarket, get a debilitating migraine and so need to book into a hotel. I’m sure that sort of thing happens constantly.
If we’re after more common and mundane examples, what about someone being told by their partner that they’re not welcome to return home that night?

Or someone believing they have Covid symptoms while away and deciding to spend money protecting their cohabitants (and those on the train they’d need to use to return home) by booking into a hotel.
 

Mainline421

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If it were me ... I’d be inclined to do it. I’d avoid honeypot sites like beaches and some of the obvious beauty spots though.

One wonders to what extent the hotels which are open (in other words Premier Inn etc) are actually enforcing whether someone has “legitimate” reasons to be staying. Tick box on the booking page?
Premier Inn and others say they aren't requesting proof.
 

dan5324

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Face coverings were brought in to appease the bed wetters of society. And give “reassurance” to the worried well. Well the bed wetters have had their way for nearly a year now. Time to ditch the face cloths and open up to everyone.
 

kez19

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Premier Inn and others say they aren't requesting proof.


I remember a few months back I was on a hotel site (company’s own - can’t remember name) but they had stated you must tell them why, did think at time a bit much but hopefully all this gets ditched

 

DelayRepay

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What would happen if you were to drive somewhere for the purposes of exercise or buying something from a local business, then suffer a migraine, causing blurred vision meaning you couldn’t drive? Or have to take some medication labelled as making you drowsy?

That would seem to meet the requirement listed above.

No, the official advise is to test your eyesight by driving to Barnard Castle. Chances are you will be fine and can then go home.
 

yorksrob

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That really is excellent news.

It is about time that SAGE and the Government were forced to justify their interventions scientifically, rather than scapegoating sectors that they dissapprove of.

Fingers crossed they are succesful in scrapping the delayed opening of indoor hospitality.
 
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