22nd February - Roadmap out of the pandemic, lifting of restrictions.

[philosopher]

I'm not. Many businesses cannot operate with limited capacity due to social distancing, and as been shown this week the government can no longer afford to prop them up. So I fully expect that social distancing will quietly be dropped, along with mandatory mask wearing.

I suspect most pubs cannot operate profitably if everyone has to be seated and all seats are a metre apart.

 

[DustyBin]

I suspect most pubs cannot operate profitably if everyone has to be seated and all seats are a metre apart.

Not true, fortunately (or unfortunately depending on how you look at it!). Under the initial July 2020 reopening rules we had sites trading at record levels. People seemed to like the table service and generally more civilised atmosphere (we didn’t go OTT with daft screens and hazard tape either). It was a pleasant surprise at the time but that’s not to say pubs should be forced into doing it again. Of course at the same time plenty of pubs and bars struggled or couldn’t open at all so it wasn’t all good news, and these places mustn’t be allowed to fall by the wayside.

 

[Class 33]

I’m expecting social distancing and possibly masks to remain for much or all of this year at least. It hasn’t been confirmed or denied but I keep picking up on comments such as the one above. To say I’m annoyed at the prospect is an understatement but I’m prepared for it. How they expect nightclubs to be able to operate I have no idea....

Well they said they're aiming for all restrictions to be scrapped on 21st June, including reopening nightclubs and festivals being allowed to go ahead. None of which can operate with this ridiculous social distancing nonsense. There will be a LOT of fuming people if they still drag this social distancing onwards after that, including me. And one of those reasons why I will be fuming, is that I'm unable to get a job all this time this drags on, because far fewer jobs are advertised. Social distancing needs to finally go on 21st June, if not before really. There's just absolutely no justification for any more. I'll be glad to see the bloody back of it, and it must be gone for good and never to return. I'm prepared to put up with it for just another 3 and a half months, but that's it, I won't be able to stand for it any longer than that.

I was watching ITV's coverage of The Budget on Wednesday and couldn't believe it when I heard the correspondent Joel Hills mention "We could still be living with social distancing in 12 months time.". Don't be stupid Joel, there's no way we will still be living with that nonsense in 12 months time!

 

[yorkie]

Really? Flu hospitalised 10% and killed 2-3% of people who caught it? Is there any data that shows that?

Without a vaccine, or natural immunity through previous infections, the figures would be much higher than that.

Coronaviruses are much slower to mutate and much less deadly than influenza viruses (when making like for like comparisons; it would be unfair to compare an immunologically naïve population to a population with strong pre existing immunity)

Coronaviruses pose very little danger to young people, which is a big contrast to influenza

The 2009 flu pandemic killed many young people but older generations were completely unaffected as they had strong pre existing immunity to the H1N1 strain.

 

[DustyBin]

Well they said they're aiming for all restrictions to be scrapped on 21st June, including reopening nightclubs and festivals being allowed to go ahead. None of which can operate with this ridiculous social distancing nonsense. There will be a LOT of fuming people if they still drag this social distancing onwards after that, including me. And one of those reasons why I will be fuming, is that I'm unable to get a job all this time this drags on, because far fewer jobs are advertised. Social distancing needs to finally go on 21st June, if not before really. There's just absolutely no justification for any more. I'll be glad to see the bloody back of it, and it must be gone for good and never to return. I'm prepared to put up with it for just another 3 and a half months, but that's it, I won't be able to stand for it any longer than that.

I was watching ITV's coverage of The Budget on Wednesday and couldn't believe it when I heard the correspondent Joel Hills mention "We could still be living with social distancing in 12 months time.". Don't be stupid Joel, there's no way we will still be living with that nonsense in 12 months time!

I agree with everything you say, I really do. I’ve maybe adopted a “hope for the best, prepare for the worst mentality” after the last twelve months. I can see a distinction being drawn though between “restrictions” and “sensible precautions that allow us to live our lives” if you know what I mean....

 

[Watershed]

Well they said they're aiming for all restrictions to be scrapped on 21st June, including reopening nightclubs and festivals being allowed to go ahead. None of which can operate with this ridiculous social distancing nonsense. There will be a LOT of fuming people if they still drag this social distancing onwards after that, including me. And one of those reasons why I will be fuming, is that I'm unable to get a job all this time this drags on, because far fewer jobs are advertised. Social distancing needs to finally go on 21st June, if not before really. There's just absolutely no justification for any more. I'll be glad to see the bloody back of it, and it must be gone for good and never to return. I'm prepared to put up with it for just another 3 and a half months, but that's it, I won't be able to stand for it any longer than that.

I was watching ITV's coverage of The Budget on Wednesday and couldn't believe it when I heard the correspondent Joel Hills mention "We could still be living with social distancing in 12 months time.". Don't be stupid Joel, there's no way we will still be living with that nonsense in 12 months time!

From what they are saying, the current intention is for social distancing to be a feature only of guidelines, rather than law (although it has only been a feature of English law to a limited extent).

Of course that doesn't mean places will stop adopting it - but they can then hide under the cover of "we're not forcing them to do anything", the same as how schools were never technically forced to close (but they know perfectly well that if they stayed open, they'd be given a direction forcing them to close).

 

[TheSel]

Well they said they're aiming for all restrictions to be scrapped on 21st June, including reopening nightclubs and festivals being allowed to go ahead. None of which can operate with this ridiculous social distancing nonsense. There will be a LOT of fuming people if they still drag this social distancing onwards after that, including me. And one of those reasons why I will be fuming, is that I'm unable to get a job all this time this drags on, because far fewer jobs are advertised. Social distancing needs to finally go on 21st June, if not before really. There's just absolutely no justification for any more. I'll be glad to see the bloody back of it, and it must be gone for good and never to return. I'm prepared to put up with it for just another 3 and a half months, but that's it, I won't be able to stand for it any longer than that.

I was watching ITV's coverage of The Budget on Wednesday and couldn't believe it when I heard the correspondent Joel Hills mention "We could still be living with social distancing in 12 months time.". Don't be stupid Joel, there's no way we will still be living with that nonsense in 12 months time!

Whilst agreeing with much of the sentiment above, we mustn't forget the Isle of Man, where after several weeks of no restrictions whatsoever, they're back in strict lockdown. Schools - and even nurseries - are even closed to the children of key workers.

I suspect the word "irreversible" may not have the meaning we might like to think.

 

[Huntergreed]

Whilst agreeing with much of the sentiment above, we mustn't forget the Isle of Man, where after several weeks of no restrictions whatsoever, they're back in strict lockdown. Schools - and even nurseries - are even closed to the children of key workers.

I suspect the word "irreversible" may not have the meaning we might like to think.

The Isle of Man went for a zero-COVID strategy and hasn’t completed its vaccination programme or built up sufficient population immunity to reach endemic equilibrium, so of course they’re in a different position to us.

 

[Watershed]

Whilst agreeing with much of the sentiment above, we mustn't forget the Isle of Man, where after several weeks of no restrictions whatsoever, they're back in strict lockdown. Schools - and even nurseries - are even closed to the children of key workers.

I suspect the word "irreversible" may not have the meaning we might like to think.

Yes. Bojo admitted as much when he was pressed on it, after his announcement.

It's irreversible, except it's completely reversible because they refuse to take lockdowns off the table as a tool.

The only way I would even remotely trust such a claim would be if the government pushed through a new Public Health Act which made lockdowns illegal.

It wouldn't stop them from changing their minds later, but it would require the assent of both houses to happen, rather than just the stroke of a minister's pen.

 

[Andy Pacer]

Yes. Bojo admitted as much when he was pressed on it, after his announcement.

It's irreversible, except it's completely reversible because they refuse to take lockdowns off the table as a tool.

The only way I would even remotely trust such a claim would be if the government pushed through a new Public Health Act which made lockdowns illegal.

It wouldn't stop them from changing their minds later, but it would require the assent of both houses to happen, rather than just the stroke of a minister's pen.

Much the same as the infamous "We will not be closing schools" and then two days later the schools closed.

 

[Eyersey468]

I'm not. Many businesses cannot operate with limited capacity due to social distancing, and as been shown this week the government can no longer afford to prop them up. So I fully expect that social distancing will quietly be dropped, along with mandatory mask wearing.

I drive buses and there is no way we can run profitablly at 50% capacity. The industry has been kept afloat by government funding but it can't continue indefinitely. Our management seems to be working on a June end to social distancing at the moment

 

[Andy Pacer]

I drive buses and there is no way we can run profitablly at 50% capacity. The industry has been kept afloat by government funding but it can't continue indefinitely. Our management seems to be working on a June end to social distancing at the moment

Agreed. Where I work in the initial opening up on society we are envisaging that we can remain on reduced service levels for a while as if the reduced advisory capacity is lifted that will be offset by the increase in passengers, but still not a massive hike initially. Maybe by September though if things continue to improve and education starts a new academic year ... although on the Andrew Marr show this morning the government adviser (can't remember her name) was intimating we may be back in trouble by then anyway!

 

[Eyersey468]

Whilst agreeing with much of the sentiment above, we mustn't forget the Isle of Man, where after several weeks of no restrictions whatsoever, they're back in strict lockdown. Schools - and even nurseries - are even closed to the children of key workers.

I suspect the word "irreversible" may not have the meaning we might like to think.

Wouldn't surprise me to be honest, given how many u turns they have done I simply can't trust them anymore or believe what they say

 

[DustyBin]

Agreed. Where I work in the initial opening up on society we are envisaging that we can remain on reduced service levels for a while as if the reduced advisory capacity is lifted that will be offset by the increase in passengers, but still not a massive hike initially. Maybe by September though if things continue to improve and education starts a new academic year ... although on the Andrew Marr show this morning the government adviser (can't remember her name) was intimating we may be back in trouble by then anyway!

I wouldn’t put it past them to have different rules (or guidance) for different industries. The problem is, on here we tend to think sensibly and logically, the government on the other hand....

 

[Eyersey468]

I wouldn’t put it past them to have different rules (or guidance) for different industries. The problem is, on here we tend to think sensibly and logically, the government on the other hand....

Good point, it wouldn't surprise me either

 

[Bantamzen]

I drive buses and there is no way we can run profitablly at 50% capacity. The industry has been kept afloat by government funding but it can't continue indefinitely. Our management seems to be working on a June end to social distancing at the moment

That's interesting to know, thanks. I must admit seeing all the buses around my local area running almost empty worries me greatly. As you say there's no way they can survive of half capacity, let alone practically zero.

 

[Andy Pacer]

That's interesting to know, thanks. I must admit seeing all the buses around my local area running almost empty worries me greatly. As you say there's no way they can survive of half capacity, let alone practically zero.

Of course it is *meant* to be essential travel only which does potentially account for the reduction in people. I recall we were getting up to the reduced capacity on a lot of occasions (admitedly on inner city services) before this latest lockdown (and that is in Leicester where there have supposedly been ongoing restrictions since June).

 

[Eyersey468]

That's interesting to know, thanks. I must admit seeing all the buses around my local area running almost empty worries me greatly. As you say there's no way they can survive of half capacity, let alone practically zero.

The government has been topping the revenue up to a break even point since last March. The concern is what will happen once the funding ends, we won't go back to 100% of passenger numbers straight away, I think the best we will get at first will be 80-85%. The manufacturers are worried as well as orders are few and far between just at the moment.

 

[Andy Pacer]

The government has been topping the revenue up to a break even point since last March. The concern is what will happen once the funding ends, we won't go back to 100% of passenger numbers straight away, I think the best we will get at first will be 80-85%. The manufacturers are worried as well as orders are few and far between just at the moment.

I think 80-85% would be achievable for most of the big groups, at least they can forecast through it. But there are bound to be further cuts on marginal services.
Conscious we are probably going off topic a little though.

 

[Eyersey468]

I think 80-85% would be achievable for most of the big groups, at least they can forecast through it. But there are bound to be further cuts on marginal services.
Conscious we are probably going off topic a little though.

Yes, sorry for the thread drift. Back on topic how feasible does everyone think the road map is?

 

[DB]

I'm not. Many businesses cannot operate with limited capacity due to social distancing, and as been shown this week the government can no longer afford to prop them up. So I fully expect that social distancing will quietly be dropped, along with mandatory mask wearing.

I hope you are right! Distancing and masks will make many businesses unviable as they won't be able to accommodate enough people, and anything which requires mask wearing for extended periods of time (theatres, cinemas, etc) will mean a lot of people decide not to bother going.

What they never make clear is the 'why?'. Despite all the lies and propaganda they have still not produced any evidence that masks actually have any role in reducing transmission. Distancing probably does, but once a sufficient proportion have been vaccinated, so what if it spreads a bit? The only strategy which continuing with it would fit is a zero Covid one, which they claim they aren't trying to follow.

Not true, fortunately (or unfortunately depending on how you look at it!). Under the initial July 2020 reopening rules we had sites trading at record levels. People seemed to like the table service and generally more civilised atmosphere (we didn’t go OTT with daft screens and hazard tape either). It was a pleasant surprise at the time but that’s not to say pubs should be forced into doing it again. Of course at the same time plenty of pubs and bars struggled or couldn’t open at all so it wasn’t all good news, and these places mustn’t be allowed to fall by the wayside.

That was in the middle of summer, and them opening again was a novelty - and many people were on furlough so didn't all have to pile in at the same time. It also only worked well for those pubs with a reasonable amount of space / outdoor space.

This isn't viable long-term - people will increasingly be back to work so won't have the same sort of flexibility, and once we get to autumn the outdoor seating won't really be usable again.

 

[Solent&Wessex]

Not true, fortunately (or unfortunately depending on how you look at it!). Under the initial July 2020 reopening rules we had sites trading at record levels. People seemed to like the table service and generally more civilised atmosphere (we didn’t go OTT with daft screens and hazard tape either). It was a pleasant surprise at the time but that’s not to say pubs should be forced into doing it again. Of course at the same time plenty of pubs and bars struggled or couldn’t open at all so it wasn’t all good news, and these places mustn’t be allowed to fall by the wayside.

I didn't dislike the table service idea per-se, and nor did many of my friends. We also didn't dislike the fact that places were less crowded,

BUT,

Going for a spur of the moment few pints or just popping out briefly to meet someone in the pub was almost impossible. All the pubs near me are small and whilst they were all open it was a major logistical exercise planning a trip to the pub. Do / can we book a table or not? How long have we got the table for? How many people? And if you don't book or get there early then you get there and find it is full, there are no spare tables, and you are turned away. Visiting more than one pub on an evening or going to a different town or village was almost impossible due to the need to examine every venue's arrangements in detail and plan a detailed timetable of where and when you would go and arrange appointments on who you were meeting and how long for all in advance. Fine if you wanted to go to a restaurant for a meal at a set time then go home afterwards, not fine if you just decided you wanted to pop out for a pint or two or catch up with some mates.

All in all a most unsatisfactory and disagreeable state of affairs which should be dispensed with asap.

 

[DustyBin]

I didn't dislike the table service idea per-se, and nor did many of my friends. We also didn't dislike the fact that places were less crowded,

BUT,

Going for a spur of the moment few pints or just popping out briefly to meet someone in the pub was almost impossible. All the pubs near me are small and whilst they were all open it was a major logistical exercise planning a trip to the pub. Do / can we book a table or not? How long have we got the table for? How many people? And if you don't book or get there early then you get there and find it is full, there are no spare tables, and you are turned away. Visiting more than one pub on an evening or going to a different town or village was almost impossible due to the need to examine every venue's arrangements in detail and plan a detailed timetable of where and when you would go and arrange appointments on who you were meeting and how long for all in advance. Fine if you wanted to go to a restaurant for a meal at a set time then go home afterwards, not fine if you just decided you wanted to pop out for a pint or two or catch up with some mates.

All in all a most unsatisfactory and disagreeable state of affairs which should be dispensed with asap.

I wholeheartedly agree, we need to return to normal, as in actual normal, ASAP.

 

[Eyersey468]

I wholeheartedly agree, we need to return to normal, as in actual normal, ASAP.

I third this

 

[packermac]

Yes. Bojo admitted as much when he was pressed on it, after his announcement.

It's irreversible, except it's completely reversible because they refuse to take lockdowns off the table as a tool.

The only way I would even remotely trust such a claim would be if the government pushed through a new Public Health Act which made lockdowns illegal.

It wouldn't stop them from changing their minds later, but it would require the assent of both houses to happen, rather than just the stroke of a minister's pen.

No Government can ever say a policy is irreversible be it lockdowns or devaluation of the currency.
It is only irreversible until you have to do it.

 

[Yew]

No Government can ever say a policy is irreversible be it lockdowns or devaluation of the currency.
It is only irreversible until you have to do it.

Unless it is unconstitutional, however in the UK we don't have as firm of a constitution.

 

[brad465]

Yes, sorry for the thread drift. Back on topic how feasible does everyone think the road map is?

Very unfeasible generally in terms of length, however that will be plain to see once deaths and numbers in hospital are right down (which in part they already are). We've got first doses in the 1-4 priority groups with very high uptake, with full effects now taking place given this was done 3 weeks ago. Now anyone in group 8 is being invited, suggesting 6 and 7 are at least nearly done, and completing 5-9 with the first dose, coupled with seasonal advantage, will get numbers down to relatively negligible levels. By this point everything should be able to open without concerns overwhelming healthcare facilities, while continuing with second doses and younger groups in the vaccine rollout to further the benefits.

There was a past thread on other viruses' behaviour impacted by Covid but is long locked, but there maybe some relevance here: Dr Susan Hopkins says we must prepare for a potential 'hard winter' of flu, citing reduced immunity to them given their almost non-existence this year:

Covid: UK must prepare for 'hard winter' of flu - expert

The population immunity to viruses other than Covid could be lower than usual, a top medic warns.

www.bbc.co.uk

The UK must prepare for a "hard winter" because the population immunity to respiratory viruses other than Covid could be lower than usual, one of England's top medics has warned.
Dr Susan Hopkins said the NHS must be "ready" for surges in flu and other similar illnesses.
It comes ahead of England's first step towards easing lockdown, with all pupils returning to school on Monday.
Most pupils have been learning from home since Christmas.
Dr Hopkins, who is in charge of Public Health England's Covid strategy, said the UK needed to be "better prepared" than it was last autumn, when new, faster-spreading variants of the virus emerged.
These drove infection rates up and forced further lockdown measures over the winter.
Dr Hopkins told the BBC's The Andrew Marr Show: "I think we have to prepare for a hard winter, not only with coronavirus, but we've had a year of almost no respiratory viruses of any other type. And that means, potentially the population immunity to that is less.
"So we could see surges in flu. We could see surges in other respiratory viruses and other respiratory pathogens."
Dr Hopkins said her role as a government advisor was to "prepare for worst-case scenarios".
"It doesn't mean that they'll necessarily happen, but my job is to make sure that we have options available for the country in case things are not as satisfactory as we'd all like them to be," she said.

While it's not certain I can certainly see how this is possible, and should really throw in question whether the long term pain of lockdowns is not just limited to economic damage and ignoring things like mental health and cancer, where here other viruses that Covid shut out "learn" to be more infectious to be in with a fighting chance once again.

Regardless of what if any restrictions are necessary though, I'm sure there is almost universal acceptance our health service must be ramped up as quickly as possible to cope, as well as issuing as many flu vaccines (and maybe covid boosters at the same time) as possible. I know staff take a long time to train, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't do it, and the last year should have seen more staff complete education already ongoing, with more in the following year. We need to make sure more training capacity exists and pay and conditions are good enough to retain existing staff too.

 

[Andy Pacer]

Yes, sorry for the thread drift. Back on topic how feasible does everyone think the road map is?

No problem, I was just waiting for it to be criticized!

I'm hoping its feasible, mainly for selfish reasons that I want to get out there and doing things again on my days off rather than my life seeming to revolve around Work-Home-Work-Home.

 

[Eyersey468]

No problem, I was just waiting for it to be criticized!

I'm hoping its feasible, mainly for selfish reasons that I want to get out there and doing things again on my days off rather than my life seeming to revolve around Work-Home-Work-Home.

That's all my life seems to be at the moment. There's quite a few places I'm hoping to get to this year

 

[Darandio]

Regardless of what if any restrictions are necessary though, I'm sure there is almost universal acceptance our health service must be ramped up as quickly as possible to cope, as well as issuing as many flu vaccines (and maybe covid boosters at the same time) as possible. I know staff take a long time to train, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't do it, and the last year should have seen more staff complete education already ongoing, with more in the following year. We need to make sure more training capacity exists and pay and conditions are good enough to retain existing staff too.

Universal acceptance from who? The public maybe, but I still don't see it from those who make the decisions. Next winter (and many after) it will still be the same underfunded mess that it was shown to be over the last 12 months.