Indeed, it was postponed before Covid. Even if DB have now elected not to proceed (though this hasn't been said) then there's nothing to suggest that stuff like closing Sheerness depot and Pwllhelli outstation, flogging off Cannock and Yorkshire Tiger, and perhaps a few more sales of problem children, is a prelude to some trolley dash of disposals.
What is certain is that over the last 3/4 years, Arriva have totally lost whatever strategic direction and the comparisons with First ten years ago are something that I've mentioned a few times. The fleet age profile isn't as bad as First's was, but instead of DDA, we have increasing demands for low emission vehicles and a business that seems to have had relatively little capital to spend, and is suffering from a paralysis of decision making. Moreover, in the absence of a plan to develop the business (or staunch the decline), they have delayered their management teams. It was bad enough when Arriva Fox and Arriva Mids North were merged, so places like Shrewsbury and Oswestry were managed from Leicester (and still are) but then to add on half of the Shires for good measure. The idea that Luton is managed from Leicester but that Stevenage is managed from Maidstone....
First have learned that good local management is the best approach. Yes, there's a balance to be struck or each depot would have it's own MD (!) and First South West has a fair sized patch with Cornwall and Somerset. However, I see little in Arriva to suggest that their management has the sufficient depth or skill to manage disparate operations within the corporate strait jacket that they find themselves in.
Speaking as an ex assistant manager working out of Maidstone 5 years ago, we were well aware that new vehicle investment was undertaken if budget was achieved. How achievable that budget was didn't register in the decision making. As ASC didn't make it's budget and has been loss making ever since it has received very little in new investment. Subsequent people who've gone in also have made any money, so it has received little, to no investment in new buses. I managed 8 months before I left working in siege conditions with bullying management and directors, demand reschedule after reschedule. At this point they were going out to bait and switch people from other operators to join them in their quest to change the business and to make more money. There was the idea that each depot should have a general manager, which was instituted. In the case of Maidstone's, he had no office, just a phone and eventually found a spare one in the main depot building after a week!
You had people in the company who stayed out of loyalty - some long timers who had decades to their name, and who were treated extremely poorly by the higher ups in the company. Gone are the days of being loyal to an employer in the modern bus industry. No longer is it a job for life, it's something you do for a while, then move on elsewhere. Noticeable that those who go there seem to have a year, then go, or they stay for life.
This lack of new bus investment is quite surprising given the population density of the Medway Towns (compared to rural East Kent) - it should be decent bus territory but on the whole provides a poor quality unreliable service using vehicles which should be on a one way trip to Barnsley and charges eye watering fares. Successive First style service changes which eliminate a bus or two from the overall peak vehicle requirement (PVR) simply spreads the overhead over fewer and fewer vehicles, ultimately leading to the closure of the depots and further reductions in vehicles.
Having decided not to invest in new vehicles, instead old ones continue to operate on services. These old vehicles do not receive preventative maintenance, rather they receive reactive maintenance and they respond to issues, rather than trying to plan for them. So, buses break down, are towed in, the 'fault' is fixed, out it goes the day after and the same fault causes another breakdown, bus is towed in, rinse and repeat. Little if anything was done to address the causes of failure (say a light bulb went out on a bus and a replacement was fitted, then it blew) - you had this battle each morning to achieve PVR.
In the midst of trying to maintain a fleet of 16/17 year old DAF deckers and Dennis Tridents and the allegedly reliable 04 plate Volvo B7TLs a number of 02/52 reg DAF deckers arrived from Leicester, thanks to their new fleet of Enviro 400 MMC buses. Out of the batch that came, two were used briefly and the other ones parked up at the top of the depot as unserviceable. The very last one of these wasn't able to make the journey south under it's own steam, instead having a lift from a tow truck. I don't think that ever entered traffic!
Maidstone and Tunbridge Wells have some very good routes which are profitable, yet they want for investment in new vehicles. You should have regular investment in new buses there which do a few years, then get moved elsewhere in the company. Like First, Arriva expects new buses to generate growth, rather than be present because the other buses have left for the scrapyard. Some of the responses I got to the question of how were these good routes to get new vehicles were quite illuminating.
My Arriva experiences were eerily similar to those described in John Cash's series of 1997 Buses articles, one of which was where he wrote of his time running Macclesfield depot as C Line. Unachieveable budgets, antiquated buses which need engineering attention, endless service changes, low staff morale all resonate with me and are easily comparable with my short time in Kent!
Arriva seem to be in the same rut First was 10 years ago - ironic given their adoption of First's strategy from 2004/5. They have a number of areas which should generate good returns, Yorkshire being one but again here I see the same mishmash of vehicles, liveries and branding that doesn't really tell me what the product is about. Remote management doesn't work in what should be a local business. Remote ideas such as liveries and branding, can work nationally when rolled out properly with the right buy in from all involved. I don't see how Arriva is there, shows any sign of being there anytime soon or that it has an idea how to get out of it's present situation. There needs to be a lot of targeted money thrown at it, but given that Arriva is one of the profitable parts of DB that is unlikely.