Omicron variant and the measures implemented in response to it

[yorkie]

More emerging data:

Covid: Trigger of rare blood clots with AstraZeneca jab found by scientists​

Covid: Trigger of rare blood clots with AstraZeneca jab found by scientists

Researchers in Cardiff and the US work out how the Covid jab may be linked to the extremely rare clots.

www.bbc.co.uk

If you can add a quote as per forum rules that would be great, thanks

I have linked to the same article in the relevant thread for vaccine updates.

As I said previously, we are at an early stage with regards to these vaccines. A year or so after they first hailed them as the solution to all of this, the scientists are still making discoveries about the reason that this particular version has killed people. People who, in some cases, were at minimal risk from serious Covid illness. The scientists will of course reinforce how "rare" these lethal side effects are, but so also are deaths from Covid in the demographics of some of the victims here. And, of course, there are no figures for those who have succumbed to this vaccine (nor, probably will there ever be), unlike the multitude of stats showing that those dying from Covid in their 30s and 40s are a tiny, tiny percentage.

While I agree that those dying from Covid in their 30s and 40s are a tiny, tiny percentage, it is still a greater sum than have died due to rare vaccine side effects.

The AZ vaccine is estimated to have saved around 1 million lives.

I am not sure what this has to do with the latest variant though.

Some may well feel that the risk of Covid outweighs any risk from vaccination, be it the first, or the second, third, fourth or 20th shot, others the opposite. Both are perfectly reasonable viewpoints, but these issues do deserve far more recognition in the area of public discussion than they have received so far, IMHO.

I think for young children it is marginal but for adults it is very difficult to argue that the risk of vaccination is greater than the risk of Covid. I agree that for young people the risks from both are very small, but you also need to consider other ill effects and not just deaths.

Presumably there will be thousands of people having a dose of AstraZeneca put into their arms today, I wonder how many of them have had the opportunity to make a genuine apparaisal of that balance of risk. Any nation considering forcing needles into folks arms need to be choosing their vaccines very carefully.

I think if anything people are likely to over-estimate the risks of the vaccine given we are talking about a double figure number of deaths out of many millions of doses.

If no-one got vaccinated due to the small risk, we would either have restrictions on our freedom (which I would oppose) or we would have many more people requiring hospital treatment than we have capacity for.

Presumably people who make such a decision never go anywhere on the UK road network, due to the risk of death or serious injury; the risks from that are far greater than any vaccine and yet people take those risks every day.

I'm not sure what this has to do with the new variant though.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

We have now had up to 24 months of this virus and associated NPI's [Non-Pharmaceutical Intervention (infectious disease control strategy)]. It is time the 'experts' came up with a realistic strategy the public can understand and buy into. One size fits all never was appropriate, which is why the health person in Scotland, Professor Panzoff, Dominic Cummings, Mr Johnson Senior and so many others devised their own interpretation of the rules to suit themselves. Without a clear stategy going forwards people will continue guessing blind based on heresay and gut-feeling.

Just what are the risks faced by an individual;
going to to a supermarket at a quiet time,
going to the same supermarket at a busy time,
doing those things with or without a facecloth, a level 1, 2 or 3 mask?

ditto taking a quiet/busy train / bus / underground.
ditto sitting at a table/standing at the bar in a pub with known contacts or a constant mix of complete strangers.

The risk of crossing a road varies considerable depending upon the fleet-footed nature of the individual, the physical characteristics of the road and the volume of traffic. So it is with Coronabobs.

I do feel insufficient effort has gone into understanding this virus in how the human body deals with the virus and how it passes it on and we've gone straight to solution mode be that NPIs or vaccinations. Whilst im sure these are contributing to its management but by not properly understanding the basics we aren't really sure what the right approach is.

I also look at India which was portrayed as society on the verge of collapse many months ago yet it now looks a beacon of brightness with its case rate. To me that suggests their limited ability to manage its spread at the time means many have acquired the antibodies by natural means perhaps.

 

[yorksrob]

I see that the General Secretary of the UN is calling out travel restrictions on Southern Africa as deeply unfair and "travel apartheid".

That may be the case, but I don't recall the UN being so outspoken when everybody shut their borders to us when the Kent variant emerged.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Just what are the risks faced by an individual;
going to to a supermarket at a quiet time,
going to the same supermarket at a busy time,
doing those things with or without a facecloth, a level 1, 2 or 3 mask?

I do still have four new and unused facecloths in our bathroom at home that were left over from the two dozen that I bought for the daily care team for my dear now-deceased wife when she was at home for her carers to use on her.

I have never felt the need to take any of them to a supermarket with me.

 

[yorkie]

I have been following this and similar threads for some time. It appears to some extent to have polarised into two opposing groups, namely the ‘we have to react to COVID as far as reasonable group‘ and the ‘live with and accept the consequences group’. I realise that a pragmatic middle course is what the government have attempted to achieve and this is a difficult balance.

It's more nuanced than that. On one hand there are people who want a lot of restrictions on the basis that we must keep Covid cases as low as possible at all costs. On the other side you have conspiracy theoriists and anti-vaxxers.

In the middle you have people who call for more or less restrictions but are accepting some level of endemicity and accepting of some measures, but there is a wide disagreement even between people who see themselves as representative of the 'middle ground'.

As I respect that you have you have done much research and hold strong views could you offer your opinion on the following points that are in my mind.

1. Were the restrictions imposed last year I.e. lockdown and social distancing necessary to save lives without any vaccine or immunity

I do not think a full lockdown was warranted; Sweden did not lock down but had more voluntary measures and they had similar outcomes to us, for example. I believe that lockdowns were done with the intention to eliminate ("beat") the virus, which was never realistic. Some measures were required to avoid a huge peak, but imposing authoritarianism is never the solution.

2. There are still deaths being attributed to COVID, do we know to whether they are in effect the level normally expected at this time of year and if not should we accept them in the greater good. Do you have a view on whether these are actually other causes and not Covid.

Deaths 'within 28 days' of having Covid will include some deaths that are not caused by Covid, though it will also exclude some which are.

In a bad 'flu year, you would see similar numbers dying of 'flu to what we now see from Covid, and the numbers dying of Covid now are vastly lower than the numbers that we'd accept as dying from respiratory viruses (say) 40 years ago.

'Flu levels are low at the moment as it appears to have been pushed out by Covid, possibly due to viral interfearance. The new variant looks set to keep 'flu at bay for the rest of this winter, if predictions come true.

3. do you know whether any risk assessment have been carried out e.g. by Sage or the government comparing the risk of COVID after mass vaccination against the risks to poor mental health and the negative effects on society in general.

I doubt it, and if they were then they were not done satisfactorily. I believe that it was all done on the basis of panic and 'we must do something'.

I am exempt from wearing a face mask and have been pinged as a contact twice since being double vaccinated. On both occasions a lateral flow test has been negative, so this has made me more confident.

Yes being vaccinated does drastically reduce the chances of an infection developing, contrary to what some people claim. And whether or not a flimsy mask is worn is not going to make a difference.

I am reassured by your views and although initially sceptical of face coverings for the reasons expressed in this thread, I kept seeing evidence in apparently credible sources that they do have some impact In reducing transmission.

They are theoretical studies not based on real world experiences. A real world study was carried out (I've linked to it multiple times on the forum) where flimsy loose fitting masks were compared with tight fitting masks that are actually designed to filter virus particles and the difference in effectiveness was absolutely staggering. Flimsy masks failed to stop transmission and resulted in extremely high level of infections, while FFP3 masks were extremely effective.

Comparing a flimsy loose fitting mask with a correctly worn FFP3 mask is like comparing chalk and cheese; the former are not in any way designed to protect anyone against virus transmission.

I would like someone to make clear statement what is really the case but don’t expect this from the government. I believe we can and must get on with life as normal now or we never will.

The Government do not want to tell people about the difference between effective masks vs ineffective masks, because to do so would completely undermine confidence in mask mandates and destroy the entire argument for mandating them. But that's already been discussed in other threads!

Just what are the risks faced by an individual;
going to to a supermarket at a quiet time,
going to the same supermarket at a busy time,
doing those things with or without a facecloth, a level 1, 2 or 3 mask?

If you are in close contact with someone who is infectious, you are protected if you are wearign a tight fitting FFP3 mask. Wearing a flimsy loose fitting mask does not protect you. It's been discussed in other threads; I'll see if I can dig out a link...

Edit: here you go:
https://www.railforums.co.uk/thread...he-mandating-of-their-use.219985/post-5243882

....The question is actually whether standard flimsy masks are effective at preventing transmission.

FFP2/3 masks do prevent virus particles from spreading, I agree.

However the standard flimsy loose-fitting masks that complied with mask mandates do not, according to a member of SAGE:

Cloth face masks are 'comfort blankets' that do little to curb Covid spread, Scientist warns

Dr Colin Axon warned some cloth masks have gaps that are invisible to the naked eye, but are 5000 times the size of viral Covid particles

www.telegraph.co.uk

Robert Dingwall, who is a member of Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M), which reports to Sage, stated:

Experts divided on whether masks are needed after July 19

Experts appear divided on whether people in England should be asked to continue to wear facemasks after July 19.

www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk

A study, reported in this BBC article, found flimsy loose fitting masks did not protect against Sars-CoV-2 infection, whereas FFP3 masks did:

Covid: Masks upgrade cuts infection risk, research finds

Wearing a high grade FFP3 mask can almost entirely protect health workers from Covid, research finds.

www.bbc.co.uk

The study found high levels of infection with standard masks, which was 47 times higher than when effective masks were worn. Obviously we don't have a 'control group' with no masks, but the results are very damning for the standard, flimsy surgical masks.....

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

I see that the General Secretary of the UN is calling out travel restrictions on Southern Africa as deeply unfair and "travel apartheid".

That may be the case, but I don't recall the UN being so outspoken when everybody shut their borders to us when the Kent variant emerged.

The mention you make about Kent makes me think of those immigrants making the dangerous Channel crossing in inflatables. When they disembark, are they formally tested for viral infections and more worrying, what about those who cross and run away unchecked.

 

[yorkie]

The mention you make about Kent makes me think of those immigrants making the dangerous Channel crossing in inflatables. When they disembark, are they formally tested for viral infections and more worrying, what about those who cross and run away unchecked.

Purely in terms of virus transmission it's irrelevant. Sars-CoV-2 is endemic, it is adapting and evolving in line with expectations and in line with pre-existing HCoVs.

 

[MikeWM]

I see mandatory vaccination is now proposed for Germany. Creep, creep, creep...

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/worl...ctions-brought-in-for-unvaccinated/ar-AARof64

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has said parliament will consider a general COVID vaccine mandate from February and those who have not had a jab will be excluded from non-essential shops and recreational venues.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Purely in terms of virus transmission it's irrelevant. Sars-CoV-2 is endemic, it is adapting and evolving in line with expectations and in line with pre-existing HCoVs.

Thanks for that. I just wondered what those rescued or guided immigrants faced when they were landed onshore by the authorities or the lifeboat service which I think is a voluntary organisation.

I see mandatory vaccination is now proposed for Germany. Creep, creep, creep...

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/worl...ctions-brought-in-for-unvaccinated/ar-AARof64

Glad to see postings such as this, as at times, emphasis in postings seem to solely concentrate upon what happens in Britain and we are but a single country amongst countless others world-wide. But that being said, it suits certain website members as it gives them an opportunity to leap upon their political hobby-horse.

 

[greyman42]

Glad to see postings such as this, as at times, emphasis in postings seem to solely concentrate upon what happens in Britain and we are but a single country amongst countless others world-wide.

What laws they impose in Germany or any other country has no bearing on England.

That’s what government have suggested today so…

Has it?

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

What laws they impose in Germany or any other country has no bearing on England.

That comparison you state above was most certainly not the point I sought to make in my posting. It was that we are just one of a great deal of world-wide countries who are dealing with the matter in different ways, but at times when reading postings on this website, you tend to feel that some posting contributors still believe that we are still a world power with a great deal of the globe still coloured red.

 

[Freightmaster]

I do still have four new and unused facecloths in our bathroom at home that were left over from the two dozen that I bought for the daily care team for my dear now-deceased wife when she was at home for her carers to use on her.

I have never felt the need to take any of them to a supermarket with me.

You should give them a try - I bet they'd be significantly more effective than the flimsy face coverings that most of the public use!




MARK

 

[Bayum]

What laws they impose in Germany or any other country has no bearing on England.


Has it?

Work from home, various ministers suggesting to reduce socialising around parties, cancelling them etc. left hand doesn’t know what it’s doing from its right.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

You should give them a try - I bet they'd be significantly more effective than the flimsy face coverings that most of the public use!




MARK

But they don't have any fastenings to keep them in place.....

 

[initiation]

What laws they impose in Germany or any other country has no bearing on England.

While I agree that legally it has no bearing on England, it is completely and utterly wrong to say it has no bearing at all.

In an alternate universe where no other western countries enacted any sort of lockdown or had mandated masks, and had instead followed less intrusive/advisory pandemic mitigation measures do you really expect that Boris Johnson would have still announced a nation wide lockdown for months on end? Would Engand's course would have been completely unchanged? Of course not.

Of course there are always outliers and deviations, but as more and more countries adopt certain ideas it validates those ideas in the minds of politicians and authoritarians.
We saw this in the famous quote from N.Ferguson about realising they could get away with lockdowns once Italy did it.

It’s a communist one party state, we said. We couldn’t get away with it in Europe, we thought… and then Italy did it. And we realised we could.

Professor Neil Ferguson, The Times

 

[stevetay3]

I am a pensioner I don’t ware a mask unless forced to do so I go to shops I use public transport and see friends. I have not had as much as a cold during all this hysteria ramped up by the media. I have been triple injected as well. I know of no one who has had more than a mild illness from this let alone die.I don’t think anyone is expert in this yet and there is so much variation in what we are told by the various media. One side says omicron is worst ever as were all the others were supposed to be, and others say it’s very mild indeed. I know who I prefer to believe, as for what I believe it’s what I see and here with my own ears and eyes until firm facts are produced.

 

[quantinghome]

While I agree that those dying from Covid in their 30s and 40s are a tiny, tiny percentage, it is still a greater sum than have died due to rare vaccine side effects.

This is off topic, I know. But just to provide some (hopefully useful) information, over 2000 people in their 40s have died from Covid in England:

(Deaths in England | Coronavirus in the UK (data.gov.uk)) - it would be a bit more for the whole UK.

Obviously this is a very small number compared to the overall number of Covid deaths, but it is without a shadow of a doubt much higher than the small number of deaths due to vaccine side-effects.

 

[bramling]

While I agree that legally it has no bearing on England, it is completely and utterly wrong to say it has no bearing at all.

In an alternate universe where no other western countries enacted any sort of lockdown or had mandated masks, and had instead followed less intrusive/advisory pandemic mitigation measures do you really expect that Boris Johnson would have still announced a nation wide lockdown for months on end? Would Engand's course would have been completely unchanged? Of course not.

Of course there are always outliers and deviations, but as more and more countries adopt certain ideas it validates those ideas in the minds of politicians and authoritarians.
We saw this in the famous quote from N.Ferguson about realising they could get away with lockdowns once Italy did it.


Professor Neil Ferguson, The Times

I find that Ferguson quote rather chilling.

 

[greyman42]

Work from home, various ministers suggesting to reduce socialising around parties, cancelling them etc. left hand doesn’t know what it’s doing from its right.

So no new rules regarding working from home or the re-introduction of furlough.

 

[stevetay3]

Just do what they do

 

[quantinghome]

I am a pensioner I don’t ware a mask unless forced to do so I go to shops I use public transport and see friends. I have not had as much as a cold during all this hysteria ramped up by the media. I have been triple injected as well. I know of no one who has had more than a mild illness from this let alone die.

I am very glad to hear that no one you know has had a bad case of Covid. Unfortunately more than 140,000 people in the UK have died from Covid, and millions more worldwide. Many more still are suffering long-term ill health from Covid.

I don’t think anyone is expert in this yet and there is so much variation in what we are told by the various media. One side says omicron is worst ever as were all the others were supposed to be, and others say it’s very mild indeed. I know who I prefer to believe, as for what I believe it’s what I see and here with my own ears and eyes until firm facts are produced.

The truth is that no one knows what the effect of the Omicron variant will be yet - it will be a few more weeks until there is enough information to make a judgement. However, by getting most of the country vaccinated and rolling out boosters we have constructed a pretty big defensive wall.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Any nation considering forcing needles into folks arms need to be choosing their vaccines very carefully.

Many countries already have plenty of mandatory vaccines.

 

[Bayum]

I am a pensioner I don’t ware a mask unless forced to do so I go to shops I use public transport and see friends. I have not had as much as a cold during all this hysteria ramped up by the media. I have been triple injected as well. I know of no one who has had more than a mild illness from this let alone die.I don’t think anyone is expert in this yet and there is so much variation in what we are told by the various media. One side says omicron is worst ever as were all the others were supposed to be, and others say it’s very mild indeed. I know who I prefer to believe, as for what I believe it’s what I see and here with my own ears and eyes until firm facts are produced.

Lucky you. We've got a number of families who have lost close relatives to COVID-19 and 8 (in a relatively small school) admissions to hospital due to severe illness. Just because you've been lucky enough to know people with 'mild illness' doesn't mean that things aren't happening elsewhere.omic

 

[stevetay3]

I am very glad to hear that no one you know has had a bad case of Covid. Unfortunately more than 140,000 people in the UK have died from Covid, and millions more worldwide. Many more still are suffering long-term ill health from Covid.


The truth is that no one knows what the effect of the Omicron variant will be yet - it will be a few more weeks until there is enough information to make a judgement. However, by getting most of the country vaccinated and rolling out boosters we have constructed a pretty big defensive wall.

Thanks for your concern it is terrible that so many have died from this but can you tell me how many have died from other illnesses and how many on waiting lists may die. soon


As for vaccination being a defensive wall, why do the triple vaccinated still face restrictions.

 

[Bayum]

I do feel insufficient effort has gone into understanding this virus in how the human body deals with the virus and how it passes it on and we've gone straight to solution mode be that NPIs or vaccinations. Whilst im sure these are contributing to its management but by not properly understanding the basics we aren't really sure what the right approach is.

I also look at India which was portrayed as society on the verge of collapse many months ago yet it now looks a beacon of brightness with its case rate. To me that suggests their limited ability to manage its spread at the time means many have acquired the antibodies by natural means perhaps.

It's a relatively new virus - what did you want to have been achieved by now? We've got a good number of treatments and procedures in place to help reduce the impact of COVID-19 on the body. Steroids, Tocilizumab (which is being widely used and is now in short supply already), antiplatelet therapy because of the increased risk of clotting the infection brings.

 

[adc82140]

I am very glad to hear that no one you know has had a bad case of Covid. Unfortunately more than 140,000 people in the UK have died from Covid, and millions more worldwide. Many more still are suffering long-term ill health from Covid.

Just to be pedantic, 140,000 people have died for any reason within 28 days of a positive Covid test.

 

[greyman42]

Lucky you. We've got a number of families who have lost close relatives to COVID-19 and 8 (in a relatively small school) admissions to hospital due to severe illness. Just because you've been lucky enough to know people with 'mild illness' doesn't mean that things aren't happening elsewhere.omic

It is not all down to "luck". Lifestyle and underlying health conditions come into it.

 

[westv]

Many countries already have plenty of mandatory vaccines.

Do they? Which have them for their own citizens? Just wondering.

 

[brad465]

Many countries already have plenty of mandatory vaccines.

Existing mandatory vaccines are typically for ones that have been through years of safety checks/trials, something covid vaccines haven't yet had, and also the illnesses they protect from typically have protection that after 1-2 doses lasts for decades, if not for life, and to the extent one is at a very low risk of getting any level of illness. Covid vaccines so far are looking at at least annual boosters, or at the moment the rather insane 3-6 monthly booster frequency, to at best lessen the severity of illness. The bureaucracy, enforcement, ethical and health implications of mandating a vaccine that requires that frequency of boosters is very high and unmanageable. We'd also be talking about huge resources being consumed/blocked up for use on other health conditions, as GPs and other health professionals are already stretched to the point that extra covid focus means sacrificing other things.

What's more is all this mandating and increased rate of boosters is being talked about and rolled out while we still have no clarity on how mild/severe Omicron is and how effective current vaccines will be against it compared to Delta and other strains.

 

[stevetay3]

If this virus is so horrible and deadly. Why do Boris and co continue with such a soft attitude towards it. Surely plonkers like them would not sign there own death warrant