Should Northern scrap direct trains between Cumbria and Manchester?

[Philip]

Since there is little prospect of either the Barrow or Windermere lines being electrified anytime soon, could it be a smart idea for Northern to consider either removing the service completely, or alter it so that it becomes a portion working between Preston and Lancaster; a 331 off one of the Manchester-Blackpool services?

Having a DMU running all way from Manchester Airport to Carnforth/Oxenholme under wires isn't particularly good, so this would remove this problem. Also it'll save a bit of money for Northern without impacting on travel convenience too much and it'll free up another path along the Castlefield line. Bolton and Chorley won't actually lose a service compared to now as it still currently runs via Wigan.

The Oxenholme-Windermere shuttle could be operated by a 769 or 195, likewise the Lancaster to Barrow shuttle. Ideally a half hourly Lancaster to Manchester frequency would be retained by using a 331 off the Blackpool service, detaching at Preston. But if Lancaster isn't suitable for turning back then you can probably get away with an hourly Lancaster to Manchester frequency (the TPE Scotland).

Perhaps TPE themselves could use an 802 diagram and remove a couple of Scotland services to instead provide two direct services per day between Manchester and Windermere, running in the existing Scotland paths.

 

[Killingworth]

A lot of people in Cumbria are already arming themselves to resist any such idea - and maybe one or two in Manchester who like a through train.

 

[Philip]

A lot of people in Cumbria are already arming themselves to resist any such idea - and maybe one or two in Manchester who like a through train.

If Northern end up going ahead and removing it then there will be little the people of Cumbria can do, short of the usual complaints.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Windermere should be electrified and gain an hourly 4 car 331 through service to Manchester. Barrow should start back at Preston, as the connections are much better than Lancaster and it is only a short section of under the wires running.

Alternatively order new bi modes (or have TPE use 80x) and leave as is.

 

[adamedwards]

Agree, Oxenholme to Windermere is a very quick simple electrification only cancelled because I cynically think the Conservatives don't want a LibDem MP getting a good news story. Passing loop at Burnside too please so we can have a regular 30 min service. Then look at the mainline platforms at Carnforth.

 

[MattRat]

The Oxenholme-Windermere shuttle could be operated by a 769 or 195, likewise the Lancaster to Barrow shuttle.

If we are talking about 769s, why not try to use them on the Manchester to Cumbria services?

 

[TT-ONR-NRN]

If we are talking about 769s, why not try to use them on the Manchester to Cumbria services?

It’s a bit of a long journey for what the 769s are

 

[Starmill]

There are several things to be aware of here. One is that these services will be running via Chorley again from December. We currently do not know what the unit diagrams will look like but it seems unlikely that the diesel diagrams can provide the required capacity between Manchester and Bolton / Chorley. Who knows though, they might pull something clever out of the bag involving two car units being attached and detached at Preston so that between Preston and Manchester Airport they're all five car.

The other issue is that a 'clean' hourly path between Preston and Barrow-in-Furness is probably generally deliverable and could certainly operate as a standalone DMU service without any serious hardship. The same cannot quite be said of Preston - Windermere because of the freight paths, the problems with the single line and the variable stopping patterns of the other express passenger services on the main line. Northern's rights are a bit of a mess between Oxenholme and Preston, and getting them to line up with the fixed slot between Manchester Airport and Preston is a nightmare.

The class 769s are very unlikely to be released from their current duties in time for December.

Finally, long term there actually is a reasonable prospect of Oxenholme - Windermere being electrified, much more than there is of Carnforth - Barrow-in-Furness.

 

[MattRat]

It’s a bit of a long journey for what the 769s are

Every journey is a bit of a long journey for the 769s

But if we are going to talk about them, assuming they work as intended, then they would be of better use on this journey than some others.

 

[Philip]

There are several things to be aware of here. One is that these services will be running via Chorley again from December. We currently do not know what the unit diagrams will look like but it seems unlikely that the diesel diagrams can provide the required capacity between Manchester and Bolton / Chorley. Who knows though, they might pull something clever out of the bag involving two car units being attached and detached at Preston so that between Preston and Manchester Airport they're all five car.

The other issue is that a 'clean' hourly path between Preston and Barrow-in-Furness is probably generally deliverable and could certainly operate as a standalone DMU service without any serious hardship. The same cannot quite be said of Preston - Windermere because of the freight paths, the problems with the single line and the variable stopping patterns of the other express passenger services on the main line.

The class 769s are very unlikely to be released from their current duties in time for December.

Regarding Windermere, how about my suggestion of TPE running a couple of through services each way, in place/path of Scotland-bound services? Northern could operate the near-hourly Oxenholme-Windermere shuttle and when the 802 is due the Northern unit could run back to Lancaster or Carnforth sidings so that it's out of the way for an hour or so.

I don't think it is essential to maintain a consistent hourly Manchester-Scotland frequency; for nearly 2 years it has been 2-hourly at best and even when the timetables get back to 'normal', I think you could get away with a couple of gaps, bearing in mind the connections available at Preston and York.

 

[Starmill]

Regarding Windermere, how about my suggestion of TPE running a couple of through services each way, in place/path of Scotland-bound services? Northern could operate the near-hourly Oxenholme-Windermere shuttle and when the 802 is due the Northern unit could run back to Lancaster or Carnforth sidings so that it's out of the way for an hour or so.

Are you proposing that some of TPE's rights between Oxenholme and Glasgow / Edinburgh should be given up?

 

[Philip]

Are you proposing that some of TPE's rights between Oxenholme and Glasgow / Edinburgh should be given up?

Yes, see my edit above. Hourly Manchester to Windermere just isn't necessary, but a skeleton service as suggested would be good and for this I think TPE with a high quality bi-mode intercity train would be the more appropriate operator.

I'm suggesting in place of a couple of Scotland trains because I'm guessing there isn't enough track capacity, nor enough 802s, to run the service separately/additionally.

 

[yorksrob]

Those Manchester to Barrow services do seem quite busy when I catch them at Carnforth. I think that the railway has more to lose by getting rid.

Plus, other than the Scotlands, there seem to be comparatively few services between Manchester Pic and the North West around Preston and Lancaster as it is.

 

[Starmill]

Yes, see my edit above.

I don't think that's at all realistic I'm afraid.

The only thing that I could see working out is combining Glasgow services in the three hours where Liverpool Lime Street - Glasgow Central services run. If it is possible to run Manchester Airport - Preston services separately to connect to and from the Glasgow services, which it may well not be, then the trains from Manchester could be withdrawn between Preston and Glasgow.

 

[PTR 444]

This should only be done if ridership remains suppressed in the long term, the main benefit being that an additional train per hour is removed from Castlefield. If passenger numbers do recover, it makes sense to keep the second train per hour from Manchester to Lancaster/Cumbria, but I think it should be standardised so that all trains go to either Barrow or Windermere, not a combination of both.

 

[Starmill]

This should only be done if ridership remains suppressed in the long term, the main benefit being that an additional train per hour is removed from Castlefield.

I thought that people were talking about splitting the services, not withdrawing them completely between Preston and Manchester Airport?

 

[507020]

I thought that people were talking about splitting the services, not withdrawing them completely between Preston and Manchester Airport?

The problem is probably that if there is no capacity to reverse EMUs at Preston and they can’t go to Barrow or Windermere they may have to be scrapped entirely. Would Carnforth not be a better place to reverse EMUs if the Barrow platforms are electrified? I have been on a 158 that reversed there. Likewise a 331 could definitely reverse in the electrified bay platform at Oxenholme, but connect there with a 195 in one direction only.

Would Avanti West Coast’s new bi-modes be able to go to Barrow or Windermere from somewhere?

 

[MattRat]

Yes, see my edit above. Hourly Manchester to Windermere just isn't necessary, but a skeleton service as suggested would be good and for this I think TPE with a high quality bi-mode intercity train would be the more appropriate operator.

I'm suggesting in place of a couple of Scotland trains because I'm guessing there isn't enough track capacity, nor enough 802s, to run the service separately/additionally.

If they can't run 802s to Scarborough in place of the 68s, and instead have to rely on the 185s, I doubt they have enough of them for Windermere.

 

[Starmill]

The problem is probably that if there is no capacity to reverse EMUs at Preston and they can’t go to Barrow or Windermere they may have to be scrapped entirely. Would Carnforth not be a better place to reverse EMUs if the Barrow platforms are electrified? I have been on a 158 that reversed there. Likewise a 331 could definitely reverse in the electrified bay platform at Oxenholme, but connect there with a 195 in one direction only.

Would Avanti West Coast’s new bi-modes be able to go to Barrow or Windermere from somewhere?

They probably can turn back at Preston without too much trouble. Preston will have to have an additional through platform added for HS2 works also, platform 0. The short platforms 3c and 4c will probably have to be closed however.

 

[tbtc]

Given that Northern don't have any suitable bi-mode trains (769s being for shorter distance) and the new bi-modes are rumoured to have no EMU capabilities, I can certainly see the argument for removing some of the Cumbria - Manchester services, given that they require a lot of diesel operation under the wires - I think that the priority for Windermere should be one morning return journey (e.g. getting into Manchester around half past eight for business travel, then passing back through Castlefield around half past nine on it's way back from the Airport, to suit the leisure market heading to Cumbria in the morning... with the same kind of deal in the afternoon, say arriving back at Manchester around five o'clock (long enough day for leisure passengers) and then heading back to Windermere around six o'clock (after going to the Airport and back in the meantime... a bit like the way that ATN used the Class 37s to provide capacity on the Harrogate - Leeds corridor and then do a return trip on the S&C on the diagram most suited to leisure passengers having a day out from Leeds.

But otherwise you get into problems... a short DMU from Cumbria to Manchester is insufficient on the line south of Preston, but relying on portion working Barrow and Windermere trains to provide a doubled up service at the Manchester end is going to be risky for performance reasons - I wouldn't want to waste a Castlefield path on a two coach DMU but then I wouldn't want Castlefield's reliability to be hurt by the problem with getting the two Cumbrian portions to arrive in Lancaster within a couple of minutes of each other... there's no easy answer there!

On the one hand electrifying the Windermere branch could be a consolation prize for the loss of most direct Manchester trains, but if you're going to sling some wires up then the problems disappear (and there are plenty of EMUs that could be used to provide direct Windermere - Manchester trains)!

other than the Scotlands, there seem to be comparatively few services between Manchester Pic and the North West around Preston and Lancaster as it is

pre-Covid there were up to five trains per hour from Manchester to Preston (slow Balckpools, the stopper that terminated at Preston, plus the Barrow/ Windermere/ Glasgow/ Edinburgh services)

Given that there are a finite number of paths through Castlefield (and the precious people of Southport obviously take priority over ordinary passengers), I don't know how they could have run more services from Manchester to Preston?

 

[yorksrob]

Given that Northern don't have any suitable bi-mode trains (769s being for shorter distance) and the new bi-modes are rumoured to have no EMU capabilities, I can certainly see the argument for removing some of the Cumbria - Manchester services, given that they require a lot of diesel operation under the wires - I think that the priority for Windermere should be one morning return journey (e.g. getting into Manchester around half past eight for business travel, then passing back through Castlefield around half past nine on it's way back from the Airport, to suit the leisure market heading to Cumbria in the morning... with the same kind of deal in the afternoon, say arriving back at Manchester around five o'clock (long enough day for leisure passengers) and then heading back to Windermere around six o'clock (after going to the Airport and back in the meantime... a bit like the way that ATN used the Class 37s to provide capacity on the Harrogate - Leeds corridor and then do a return trip on the S&C on the diagram most suited to leisure passengers having a day out from Leeds.

But otherwise you get into problems... a short DMU from Cumbria to Manchester is insufficient on the line south of Preston, but relying on portion working Barrow and Windermere trains to provide a doubled up service at the Manchester end is going to be risky for performance reasons - I wouldn't want to waste a Castlefield path on a two coach DMU but then I wouldn't want Castlefield's reliability to be hurt by the problem with getting the two Cumbrian portions to arrive in Lancaster within a couple of minutes of each other... there's no easy answer there!

On the one hand electrifying the Windermere branch could be a consolation prize for the loss of most direct Manchester trains, but if you're going to sling some wires up then the problems disappear (and there are plenty of EMUs that could be used to provide direct Windermere - Manchester trains)!



pre-Covid there were up to five trains per hour from Manchester to Preston (slow Balckpools, the stopper that terminated at Preston, plus the Barrow/ Windermere/ Glasgow/ Edinburgh services)

Given that there are a finite number of paths through Castlefield (and the precious people of Southport obviously take priority over ordinary passengers), I don't know how they could have run more services from Manchester to Preston?

This summer I was waiting at Piccadilly over half an hour for as train to Lancaster. There seem to be fewer in that direction than one would expect.

 

[Starmill]

I think that the priority for Windermere should be one morning return journey (e.g. getting into Manchester around half past eight for business travel,

Is this really necccesary? We already have a 0422 Glasgow Central to Manchester Airport for this purpose, arriving at Manchester Oxford Road at 0820. Its all of 8 minutes connection at Oxenholme into it.

The 0642 from Windermere would have to leave earlier to get to Preston without being caught up by the service from Glasgow, and a second unit would have to come up to the branch to work the next Windermere service. It would be a nightmare.

This summer I was waiting at Piccadilly over half an hour for as train to Lancaster. There seem to be fewer in that direction than one would expect.

A reduced timetable was running last summer.

The December 2021 timetable introduced Lancaster stops back into all Windermere services, meaning that for the first time ever 2tph was available all day between Lancaster and Manchester.

I don't think more than 2tph is really sensible. I've attached a screenshot of services in the long term plan from Lancaster towards Manchester.

 

[yorksrob]

Is this really necccesary? We already have a 0422 Glasgow Central to Manchester Airport for this purpose, arriving at Manchester Oxford Road at 0820. Its all of 8 minutes connection at Oxenholme into it.

The 0642 from Windermere would have to leave earlier to get to Preston without being caught up by the service from Glasgow, and a second unit would have to come up to the branch to work the next Windermere service. It would be a nightmare.


A reduced timetable was running last summer.

The December 2021 timetable introduced Lancaster stops back into all Windermere services, meaning that for the first time ever 2tph was available all day between Lancaster and Manchester.

I don't think more than 2tph is really sensible. I've attached a screenshot of services in the long term plan from Lancaster towards Manchester.

Well that's certainly a good thing (thanks for posting @Starmill). Two per hour seems (to my amateur mind) about right for Manchester to Lancaster, but that presumably relies on the Barrow train running through.

 

[Starmill]

Well that's certainly a good thing (thanks for posting @Starmill). Two per hour seems (to my amateur mind) about right for Manchester to Lancaster, but that presumably relies on the Barrow train running through.

At the moment only three of those Northern services aren't running, and five of the TransPennine Express services are not running.

 

[yorksrob]

At the moment only three of those Northern services aren't running, and five of the TransPennine Express services are not running.

So one could still turn up at a gap in the half hourly service !

 

[Starmill]

So one could still turn up at a gap in the half hourly service !

It's worse than that because (for example) at Manchester Piccadilly currently both the 1926 to Glasgow Central and the 1947 to Barrow-in-Furness are cancelled. The same situation occurs twelve hours earlier at 0726 and 0747.

But the situation now from last summer is quite different.

 

[yorksrob]

It's worse than that because (for example) at Manchester Piccadilly currently both the 1926 to Glasgow Central and the 1947 to Barrow-in-Furness are cancelled. The same situation occurs twelve hours earlier at 0726 and 0747.

But the situation now from last summer is quite different.

That's good, although my direct service to Lancaster via the little North Western is also back, so I'll have less reason to benefit from the better service from Manchester !

 

[507020]

They probably can turn back at Preston without too much trouble. Preston will have to have an additional through platform added for HS2 works also, platform 0. The short platforms 3c and 4c will probably have to be closed however.

The Royal Mail platform will be opened to passengers in lieu of the south facing bay platforms which will be closed as part of HS2 works, but what will happen to the Ormskirk and Colne services or the possibility of a future service to Southport which will need to use that platform?

 

[Greybeard33]

What has happened to the plan for Northern to acquire battery 331s for the Windermere services? See this closed thread from 2020:

Windermere battery trial

I read in MR (I think) about an order having been placed with CAF for some additional vehicles for 3-car 331s fitted with batteries for Windermere. Does anyone know anything more about this? If this trial is successful, do the batteries have enough capacity to get to Barrow?

www.railforums.co.uk

 

[507020]

What has happened to the plan for Northern to acquire battery 331s for the Windermere services? See this closed thread from 2020:

I’ve been wondering this. Surely it’s within their capabilities to build 3 Battery Trailer vehicles for 331s.