Timetable implications of Avanti West Coast's 805/807 Hitachi AT300 sets

[TT-ONR-NRN]

Can we see this proposed timetable please

 

[The Planner]

Can we see this proposed timetable please

Its not in the public domain yet, basically because it isnt finished.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Decision was meant to be made today by ministers I heard?
MK gets a Liverpool stop now though. Loses the Chester as well.

Does Liverpool keep Crewe? If not this is going to make connecting to Scotland very bad too.

 

[hexagon789]

805s and 807s are effectively the same as 802s and 803s respectively from a technical point of view.

I appreciate that and I don't dispute that, but the information currently available says they are 125mph not 140mph. Unless that's just reflecting the in-service speed but other 80x were advertised as being 140 capable.

I guess we'll see when they enter service what they are "stencilled" for.

 

[DanNCL]

I appreciate that and I don't dispute that, but the information currently available says they are 125mph not 140mph. Unless that's just reflecting the in-service speed but other 80x were advertised as being 140 capable.

I guess we'll see when they enter service what they are "stencilled" for.

The existing 80xs are all "stenciled" for 125mph despite being 140mph capable, as 125mph is the max they're permitted to do in regular traffic. Believe the 91s and 390s are the same too. I assume it would be the same with the 805s and 807s?

 

[Pumbaa]

Decision was meant to be made today by ministers I heard?
MK gets a Liverpool stop now though. Loses the Chester as well.

Well as Ministers were involved I assumed there would be no decision. Smoke sometime next week perhaps. But if they couldn’t get comfortable with it up until now, I don’t see how they’d suddenly get there.

Does Liverpool keep Crewe? If not this is going to make connecting to Scotland very bad too.

Essentially a swap between the Liverpool and Chester - Liverpool gets the MK, Chester gets the Stafford.

 

[Halish Railway]

Essentially a swap between the Liverpool and Chester - Liverpool gets the MK, Chester gets the Stafford.

A very good move in my opinion, it makes sense to have a 9/11 carriage Pendolino or in the future 7 carriage 807 serve the station with the higher demand of the two stations rather than a 5 carriage 221/805.

Also Stafford gains a connection to Chester/North Wales and retains a direct service to Liverpool with LNWR.

A couple of unclear points:
1. What stations will the second hourly Liverpool service stop at if it happens (It has been mentioned that it will stop at Liverpool South Parkway, but where else?
2. How will the Birmingham (and beyond) to Euston services be spread? Will it be every 20 minutes departing Birmingham or arriving into Euston, or will the non-stop Coventry to Euston run on a clock face half-hourly frequency, with the ‘stopper’ pathed in between the two?
3. Will Coventry keep its 2tph non-stop service to Euston post HS2? I can see the stopper being kept post HS2 and personally I’d have a ‘Coventry Cruiser’, a simple non stop Euston to Coventry service that in the future could be worked by just a 5 carriage 80x.

 

[Watershed]

Will Coventry keep its 2tph non-stop service to Euston post HS2?

Almost certainly not. The likes of Coventry and Stoke will lose out in a big way once HS2 service patterns are fully introduced, both in terms of frequency and journey time.

That said, they never received their level of service (3tph and 2tph fast) on the basis of the demand between them and London, but rather for pathing reasons, as well as to provide local connectivity with a skip-stopping pattern.

With the one of the Brum-Euston "fast" services gaining additional stops, whilst WMT have speeder up their Birmingham services (particularly in the southbound direction), Chiltern and WMT actually stand to gain market share.

 

[Wyrleybart]

Since when have they been a 110mph train? I thought the 805/807 were going to be 125mph?
And it’s always been said they would have to slow for the corners, and the acceleration is improved based on a 390 so wouldn’t have much impact.
So based on that comment in magazine, to me, that’s nothing new, and has been known about since they were ordered.

I have sensed a "phobia" over the past fifteen years of anything non Tass fitted but capable of 125mph, being allowed anywhere near the WCML. This is gradually being eroded but is there a ban on anything 125mph capable being allowed at more han 110mph without operating Tass ?

 

[craigybagel]

I have sensed a "phobia" over the past fifteen years of anything non Tass fitted but capable of 125mph, being allowed anywhere near the WCML. This is gradually being eroded but is there a ban on anything 125mph capable being allowed at more han 110mph without operating Tass ?

Effectively yes - in that the only sections of the WCML passed for greater than 110mph have TASS differentials, so no TASS, no going over 110mph (other than the aforementioned Stafford - Wolverhampton section which has a 125 MU/EPS differential).

I'm not sure if I'd call it a phobia - more likely it seems that until recently there hasn't really been a need for it.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

It is indeed being withdrawn, the through train will be non-stop south of Coventry. Though smart money is on Dec 22 not happening at the moment, so you may have a little longer to enjoy it.

The article also talks about different stopping patterns for other Avanti services, so there may be compensation for MK there (and for Trent Valley stations).
But that is more about the general Dec 22 timetable recast and is going off-the Avanti 80x topic...

 

[The Planner]

2. How will the Birmingham (and beyond) to Euston services be spread? Will it be every 20 minutes departing Birmingham or arriving into Euston, or will the non-stop Coventry to Euston run on a clock face half-hourly frequency, with the ‘stopper’ pathed in between the two?

The latter.

 

[Watershed]

The latter.

Actually quite a smart way of doing it, as the GJT increase of 5 minutes is offset by the decrease in journey time, whilst still providing improved connectivity between Coventry/Rugby/MK/Watford.

I suppose it's a loss to people who used the services between Coventry and Birmingham, as they're no longer a clockface 20 minutes apart. But you can't have everything.

 

[James90012]

Interesting, I always understood the proposals to be a tweak of VHF but this sounds more fundamental.

What happens to the Manchesters? I can't mentally reconcile a 20 minute pattern with the introduction of the slower Birmignham path.

 

[hexagon789]

The existing 80xs are all "stenciled" for 125mph despite being 140mph capable, as 125mph is the max they're permitted to do in regular traffic. Believe the 91s and 390s are the same too. I assume it would be the same with the 805s and 807s?

91s/Mk4s are all stencilled for 140mph though, so are 390s

 

[physics34]

Sorry for not reading whole thread, buf are the Voyagers destined for CrossCountry?

 

[The Planner]

Interesting, I always understood the proposals to be a tweak of VHF but this sounds more fundamental.

What happens to the Manchesters? I can't mentally reconcile a 20 minute pattern with the introduction of the slower Birmignham path.

It is far from a tweak. Manchester stay as 20 minute intervals.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Sorry for not reading whole thread, buf are the Voyagers destined for CrossCountry?

Who knows? Nothing seems to have been decided.
It will be up to the DfT.
Same with EMR's Meridians.

 

[seagull]

Effectively yes - in that the only sections of the WCML passed for greater than 110mph have TASS differentials, so no TASS, no going over 110mph (other than the aforementioned Stafford - Wolverhampton section which has a 125 HST differential).

The Rugby-Coventry section also is 125 mph max for high speed Multiple Units, the funny thing being that, along with Bushbury-Stafford, a non-tilt Pendolino can only do 100 or 90 respectively, as not classed as a Multiple Unit.

 

[craigybagel]

The Rugby-Coventry section also is 125 mph max for high speed Multiple Units, the funny thing being that, along with Bushbury-Stafford, a non-tilt Pendolino can only do 100 or 90 respectively, as not classed as a Multiple Unit.

Ah yes, I always forget about that rather odd section of line.

It's also reminded me that it's not a HST differential on Stafford - Wolverhampton like I said originally, it's MU like Coventry - Rugby.

The article also talks about different stopping patterns for other Avanti services, so there may be compensation for MK there (and for Trent Valley stations).
But that is more about the general Dec 22 timetable recast and is going off-the Avanti 80x topic...

Indeed, and I wonder if it's worth the mods creating a separate thread to discuss the ins and outs of the recast?

 

[Bletchleyite]

It is far from a tweak. Manchester stay as 20 minute intervals.

Interesting, as I've long thought 2tph all day (using 11 car sets) with peak extras ("peak" not necessarily coinciding with Anytime fares) slotted in as necessary would make more sense.

 

[A0]

In the current proposed timetable that’s exactly where it is, so you have evenly spaced connectivity as far as Rugby. Unfortunately the Watford call in the Birmingham via Northampton had to swap to the other, so Watford get their calls about 5 mins apart. But MK and Rugby both benefit.


It is indeed being withdrawn, the through train will be non-stop south of Coventry. Though smart money is on Dec 22 not happening at the moment, so you may have a little longer to enjoy it.

Presumably some of these changes to Avanti between London and Birmingham will also have an impact on LNW as well ? Are you able to give an indication of what that impact is ?

 

[craigybagel]

Interesting, as I've long thought 2tph all day (using 11 car sets) with peak extras ("peak" not necessarily coinciding with Anytime fares) slotted in as necessary would make more sense.

Given how broad a time those extras would need to cover, is it really worth dropping to 2tph for part of the day and losing the Takt? Especially when you consider it either mean Stoke losing 1tph to both Manchester and London (on top of the current loss of the Bristol - Manchester XC service) or the loss of the service via Crewe, with the reduced connectivity that would cause.

In my experience the 3tph Manchester service always seemed to be busier than the West Midlands anyway.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Given how broad a time those extras would need to cover, is it really worth dropping to 2tph for part of the day and losing the Takt?

Is it losing the Takt? The idea would be a clockface 2tph all day, and peak "point to point" off pattern extras slotted between those without changing them, potentially looking at 4tph at the busiest times, very similar to what is being looked at for Brum. I do see your point, though.

 

[craigybagel]

Is it losing the Takt? The idea would be a clockface 2tph all day, and peak "point to point" off pattern extras slotted between those without changing them, potentially looking at 4tph at the busiest times, very similar to what is being looked at for Brum. I do see your point, though.

And I see yours to be fair - I was thinking that the busy period was potentially so long that you'd have as much time 3tph as 2tph, if not even more, so the question would become which timetable is actually Takt? But yes, I guess it wouldn't actually be all that different from the West Midlands.

My biggest fear though would be the implications of losing 1tph out of Euston if Manchester dropped to 2tph. Given the implications of that would have Milton Keynes most at risk I'm surprised you'd be supportive of it?

It's going to be a very interesting timetable what every they come up with. Swapping the Stafford and Milton Keynes calls between the Chesters and North Wales is surely also going to require swapping the paths, or else the Chester will catch up with the Liverpool at Milton Keynes, unless the time difference between 805s and 390s is enough to cancel that out?

 

[Bletchleyite]

My biggest fear though would be the implications of losing 1tph out of Euston if Manchester dropped to 2tph. Given the implications of that would have Milton Keynes most at risk I'm surprised you'd be supportive of it?

The 2tph COVID timetable didn't miss MKC out of the Manchesters (not even the 1tph one did), and if the one that does call is cancelled they near-always stick the stop in another one, so I doubt going to 2tph Manchester would result in loss of the MKC stop.

 

[craigybagel]

The 2tph COVID timetable didn't miss MKC out of the Manchesters (not even the 1tph one did), and if the one that does call is cancelled they near-always stick the stop in another one, so I doubt going to 2tph Manchester would result in loss of the MKC stop.

No, I'm sure it wouldn't lose in that respect. But it would be a lot busier with passengers from further north.

 

[TheBigD]

Does the proposed December 2022 WCML timetable changes to the west midlands services allow for the potential rerouting of the XC Newcastle to Reading service via Coventry, or are they other constraints preventing this?

 

[Halish Railway]

Does the proposed December 2022 WCML timetable changes to the west midlands services allow for the potential rerouting of the XC Newcastle to Reading service via Coventry, or are they other constraints preventing this?

The single track section between Coventry and Leamington Spa is a huge constricter of capacity, with it already having to handle an hourly XC and WMR service, along with the occasional freight train.

 

[TheBigD]

The single track section between Coventry and Leamington Spa is a huge constricter of capacity, with it already having to handle an hourly XC and WMR service, along with the occasional freight train.

Appreciate that but the Newcastle-Reading service (pre covid) ran via Coventry on Sundays, alongside the local service and the Manchester-Bournemouth service.
I was under the impression that it was timetabling constraints in the Coventry to New Street section that prevented it on weekdays.