Without a doubt. They are definitely what we'd call a fair-weather friend.True though it does seem Turkey is rather more chummy with Russia than perhaps is ideal and certainly more so than many other NATO members are at present.
Without a doubt. They are definitely what we'd call a fair-weather friend.True though it does seem Turkey is rather more chummy with Russia than perhaps is ideal and certainly more so than many other NATO members are at present.
It's the only NATO country within easy reach of the conflict with a significant military capability, probably far bigger than Ukraine's ever was is. For all its faults Turkey is a buffer zone between the Middle East and Europe. And is the country that controls access to the Black Sea.True though it does seem Turkey is rather more chummy with Russia than perhaps is ideal and certainly more so than many other NATO members are at present.
Absolutely.Without a doubt. They are definitely what we'd call a fair-weather friend.
Absolutely.
Turkey though does keep its side of a deal, they dont waiver unlike several countries. Ive worked there several times, and despite the financial stats trotted out on TV, in the cities life isnt bad, lots of construction and modern infrastructure is growing, people I speak to dont seem unhappy.. that is based on westernised cities*
Sweden and Finland still need Turkeys vote, but once that card is played, their hand is gone, and they know it. So it doesnt hurt to build up a fresh hand as the only “western” country to be on negotiating terms with Putin, since the French embarrased themselves. At some point Biden will visit Turkey, there will be a huge military deal and somewhere in that mix will be two new Nato members, a settlement in Ukraine, probably with Turkish peacekeepers… but not all at once to keep the deniability.
Longer term, Turkey will become “spook” hotspot for spying, and it will be Russias gateway to the west. It will be a big investor in Ukraine, setting itself up as always to a political, economic advantage.
Good news!
From The Telegraph:
'Powerful explosions were heard near a Russian military airfield in the Russia-occupied Crimea on Tuesday afternoon. Footage from the scene showed plumes of smoke towering over a beach and a local park.
Oleg Kryuchkov, an adviser to Moscow-appointed head of Crimea, on Tuesday confirmed the explosions but stopped short of giving any details.
Ukrainian media said the Russian military airfield in Nefedorovka on Crimea’s western coast came under attack.'
That's deep into enemy territory.
Seems it might have been a special forces attack.
I've seen videos allegedly showing traffic jams of Russians trying to get back to Russia!
I've seen videos allegedly showing traffic jams of Russians trying to get back to Russia!
What is "NPP"? "Nuclear Power Plant"?To me the NPP could be the start of seeking a way out, one way or the other… and the outcome of Kherson is the counter stake.
The problem for Putin is that a mass mobilisation would shatter the mythos of his invincibility. At which point the generals would start to question if Putin is actually the right person to lead the country.The outcome, if Putin wants to press on, he has that capability, he can mobilise millions, move the remaining weapons, it will really hurt Russia down at the street level, which is where Russian leaders ultimately die. Does he really want to go all in, risk it all, when all along he’s had a bad hand at the roulette table so far and for what gain at the end of it ?
and lose support of the military and you're toast.The problem for Putin is that a mass mobilisation would shatter the mythos of his invincibility. At which point the generals would start to question if Putin is actually the right person to lead the country.
and lose support of the military and you're toast.
They may have wanted him to go in harder, but that was before they suffered the terrible losses that they did.Though I have the impression that the military actually want him to go in harder, including potentially the use of tactical nuclear, so he may be being more restrained than he could be.
The new air defence system the Russians are bringing in is going to cause problems
They may have wanted him to go in harder, but that was before they suffered the terrible losses that they did.
It will mean the ground is hard and firm (which is good for tracked vehicles crossing fields) and also makes wildfires more likely. Natural smokescreens will make targeting troops more difficult.Could the current European heatwave have any military consequences either in Ukraine or in the Russian-controlled areas?
It will mean the ground is hard and firm (which is good for tanked vehicles crossing fields) and also makes wildfires more likely. Natural smokescreens will make targeting troops more difficult.
The risks involving the Zaporozhzhia NPP and the wider risk of escalation to nuclear war in this conflict reminds me of the Fermi paradox. This is the question that with the universe being so large with so many habitable planets then why haven't we found any sign of any life?
One notion that could partly explain this is that as technologically intelligent life develops they also develop the means to destroy themselves but not the moral capacity to control or limit that destruction. Therefore these civilisations don't last long enough to contact each other.
On a different note, I've been watching that brilliant miniseries 'Chernobyl'. What strikes me even more after watching this is the complete insanity of Ukrainians and Russians fighting each other. The quicker a peaceful settlement to this the better.
Very, very early. I would argue currently more closer to 'dumb' life.Ah The Great Filter, the most depressing answer to the Fermi Paradox. I prefer the answer where we are early to the party in terms of intelligent life.
Fully agree. War crimes trials for all major war criminals would be a good idea.The peaceful settlement should be Russia withdrawing and Vlad handing himself into The Hague...
The peaceful settlement should be Russia withdrawing and Vlad handing himself into The Hague...
Russia and North Korea will expand their "comprehensive and constructive bilateral relations", President Vladimir Putin has said.
In a letter sent to his counterpart Kim Jong-un on Pyongyang's liberation day, Mr Putin said the move would be in both countries' interests.
In turn, Mr Kim said friendship between both nations had been forged in World War Two with victory over Japan.
He added that their "comradely friendship" would grow stronger.
The Soviet Union was once a major communist ally of North Korea, offering economic co-operation, cultural exchanges and aid.
According to North Korean state news agency KCNA, Mr Putin said expanded bilateral relations would "conform with the interests of the two countries".
In his letter, Mr Kim said the Russia-North Korea friendship "forged in the anti-Japanese war" had been "consolidated and developed century after century".
It added "strategic and tactical co-operation, support and solidarity" between the two countries "had been put on a new high stage, in the common front for frustrating the hostile forces' military threat and provocation".
Pyongyang did not identify the hostile forces by name, but the term has been used repeatedly by North Korea to refer to the US and its allies.
Putin having to resort to strengthening ties with North Korea:
Russia vows to expand relations with North Korea
President Vladimir Putin made the comments in a letter sent to North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.www.bbc.co.uk
Was it ever not thus?I really get the sense that the World is splitting into two hostile blocs again, just like happened after WWII.