Without a doubt. They are definitely what we'd call a fair-weather friend.
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Russia invades Ukraine
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Runningaround
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It's the only NATO country within easy reach of the conflict with a significant military capability, probably far bigger than Ukraine's ever was is. For all its faults Turkey is a buffer zone between the Middle East and Europe. And is the country that controls access to the Black Sea.
Turkey seems to be the only country that Putin may take notice of, they have recent history too in Syria, and the Azerbaijan-Armenian conflicts while with not being on ''the same side''. Turkey has shot down Russian Fighter jets that violated it's airspace without any retaliation off Russia.
Absolutely.
Turkey though does keep its side of a deal, they dont waiver unlike several countries. Ive worked there several times, and despite the financial stats trotted out on TV, in the cities life isnt bad, lots of construction and modern infrastructure is growing, people I speak to dont seem unhappy.. that is based on westernised cities*
Sweden and Finland still need Turkeys vote, but once that card is played, their hand is gone, and they know it. So it doesnt hurt to build up a fresh hand as the only “western” country to be on negotiating terms with Putin, since the French embarrased themselves. At some point Biden will visit Turkey, there will be a huge military deal and somewhere in that mix will be two new Nato members, a settlement in Ukraine, probably with Turkish peacekeepers… but not all at once to keep the deniability.
Longer term, Turkey will become “spook” hotspot for spying, and it will be Russias gateway to the west. It will be a big investor in Ukraine, setting itself up as always to a political, economic advantage.
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Pete_uk
Established Member
Good news!
From The Telegraph:
'Powerful explosions were heard near a Russian military airfield in the Russia-occupied Crimea on Tuesday afternoon. Footage from the scene showed plumes of smoke towering over a beach and a local park.
Oleg Kryuchkov, an adviser to Moscow-appointed head of Crimea, on Tuesday confirmed the explosions but stopped short of giving any details.
Ukrainian media said the Russian military airfield in Nefedorovka on Crimea’s western coast came under attack.'
That's deep into enemy territory.
From The Telegraph:
'Powerful explosions were heard near a Russian military airfield in the Russia-occupied Crimea on Tuesday afternoon. Footage from the scene showed plumes of smoke towering over a beach and a local park.
Oleg Kryuchkov, an adviser to Moscow-appointed head of Crimea, on Tuesday confirmed the explosions but stopped short of giving any details.
Ukrainian media said the Russian military airfield in Nefedorovka on Crimea’s western coast came under attack.'
That's deep into enemy territory.
DustyBin
Established Member
Some interesting thoughts, at least some of which are spot on in my opinion.
Turkey will as you say look to gain advantage at any opportunity, but are a valuable NATO member. Together with Greece they provide NATO with considerable military capability in that part of the world although of course, somewhat ironically, it’s the animosity between the two countries that has in part led to them developing their respective capabilities.
The Russians are claiming it was an accident and having seen videos of them handling ammunition I’d say it’s entirely possible! Ukraine hasn’t officially claimed responsibility either, presumably to avoid any kind of escalation. If it was them however it certainly sends a message.
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Pete_uk
Established Member
Seems it might have been a special forces attack.
I've seen videos allegedly showing traffic jams of Russians trying to get back to Russia!
I've seen videos allegedly showing traffic jams of Russians trying to get back to Russia!
DustyBin
Established Member
It seems incredibly unlikely that it was an accident; there are now satellite images showing the damage and it looks like a targeted attack. Who or what exactly carried out the attack however still isn’t clear.
I’ve seen the same videos; hopefully the Russian military will follow in due course!
"They don't like it up em", fine when its Ukrainian Jewish Nazis being bombed but when it gets close to home they are all fleeing the special military operation.
Hopefully this isn't the last attack on Russian military infrastructure in Crimea.
They are really going to regret using their air defense weapons to hit shopping malls and hospitals.
Interesting place Crimea, in that not only is everyone stepping back being involved, but the “experts” are having a hard time coalescing what weapon was used. Even CNN took the war off its front page yesterday for a few hours.
it was a multi-attack, so whatever was used, they have sufficient quantity of them to risk a number of them in 1 attack.
I did note a few days ago, the 12 Himars simultaneous attack in daylight from 4 launchers side by side the other week, as side of the 7 figure sum being launched in 60 seconds, the video itself was a message of willingness to take such risk. I noted the target hits werent shown but various other videos suggested it was Donbass… Again out of range for Crimea, but a show of strength, on top of the recent Ammo dump hits.
The Russian response to Crimea was interesting, a UN meeting to discuss the situation at the NPP… I expect a whole load of “risk by Ukraine” diatribe to be expelled, and hopefully the US has an equally belligerent response… but that Russia even made this move, suggests they are trying to force open a discussion using the NPP as the negotiating chip... I dont expect much from today, probably lots of strong statements, but it could be the path to more. importantly for US politics, its a clear sign of a Russian first move, which is what they always want before engaging, so its the US move next and their wording (aside of the chastisement) that will be worth watching.
so far open discussion has been largely rebuffed by the west, since the wars early days, so maybe some pain is being felt ?
As for Russia, thousands of Russian tourists are now heading home to their towns have seen a real war on “their land” which they have felt safe at “at home” about for 7+ years, and will be talking and sharing videos etc.
And the military, well i’d expect the navy to move a few vessels, after all theyve under performed, lack real purpose currently but are bigger sitting ducks to whatever was used.
Regardless the volume of Russias arsenal, replacing 50-70 Dumps* (*depending on your source), supply lines are now stretching from a half dozen miles out to a 100 mile round trip on often gravel roads and now being exposed in Crimea… thats going to hurt and will need a huge resource uplift on a significant scale way beyond what weve seen so far to sustain for too long. More significantly to all this is water… Crimea relies on the Dniepr for water, Russia opened the routes closed by Ukraine in 2014… if Ukraine has taken out the bridges, reaches the river, they can then turn off the taps to Crimea once more.
Russia cannot supply its forces on the northern side, and their backs are to that river relying on a raft, without bridges, now minus air cover from Crimea…waiting for Ukraine to start attacking.
All of that sets the pretext for a massacre, mass surrender or fleeing into the river in Kherson by Russia’s army, a hugely embarrasing result is at stake.
The outcome, if Putin wants to press on, he has that capability, he can mobilise millions, move the remaining weapons, it will really hurt Russia down at the street level, which is where Russian leaders ultimately die. Does he really want to go all in, risk it all, when all along he’s had a bad hand at the roulette table so far and for what gain at the end of it ?
To me the NPP could be the start of seeking a way out, one way or the other… and the outcome of Kherson is the counter stake. If it isnt, then its going to get very ugly on both sides.
it was a multi-attack, so whatever was used, they have sufficient quantity of them to risk a number of them in 1 attack.
I did note a few days ago, the 12 Himars simultaneous attack in daylight from 4 launchers side by side the other week, as side of the 7 figure sum being launched in 60 seconds, the video itself was a message of willingness to take such risk. I noted the target hits werent shown but various other videos suggested it was Donbass… Again out of range for Crimea, but a show of strength, on top of the recent Ammo dump hits.
The Russian response to Crimea was interesting, a UN meeting to discuss the situation at the NPP… I expect a whole load of “risk by Ukraine” diatribe to be expelled, and hopefully the US has an equally belligerent response… but that Russia even made this move, suggests they are trying to force open a discussion using the NPP as the negotiating chip... I dont expect much from today, probably lots of strong statements, but it could be the path to more. importantly for US politics, its a clear sign of a Russian first move, which is what they always want before engaging, so its the US move next and their wording (aside of the chastisement) that will be worth watching.
so far open discussion has been largely rebuffed by the west, since the wars early days, so maybe some pain is being felt ?
As for Russia, thousands of Russian tourists are now heading home to their towns have seen a real war on “their land” which they have felt safe at “at home” about for 7+ years, and will be talking and sharing videos etc.
And the military, well i’d expect the navy to move a few vessels, after all theyve under performed, lack real purpose currently but are bigger sitting ducks to whatever was used.
Regardless the volume of Russias arsenal, replacing 50-70 Dumps* (*depending on your source), supply lines are now stretching from a half dozen miles out to a 100 mile round trip on often gravel roads and now being exposed in Crimea… thats going to hurt and will need a huge resource uplift on a significant scale way beyond what weve seen so far to sustain for too long. More significantly to all this is water… Crimea relies on the Dniepr for water, Russia opened the routes closed by Ukraine in 2014… if Ukraine has taken out the bridges, reaches the river, they can then turn off the taps to Crimea once more.
Russia cannot supply its forces on the northern side, and their backs are to that river relying on a raft, without bridges, now minus air cover from Crimea…waiting for Ukraine to start attacking.
All of that sets the pretext for a massacre, mass surrender or fleeing into the river in Kherson by Russia’s army, a hugely embarrasing result is at stake.
The outcome, if Putin wants to press on, he has that capability, he can mobilise millions, move the remaining weapons, it will really hurt Russia down at the street level, which is where Russian leaders ultimately die. Does he really want to go all in, risk it all, when all along he’s had a bad hand at the roulette table so far and for what gain at the end of it ?
To me the NPP could be the start of seeking a way out, one way or the other… and the outcome of Kherson is the counter stake. If it isnt, then its going to get very ugly on both sides.
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and lose support of the military and you're toast.
Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
Though I have the impression that the military actually want him to go in harder, including potentially the use of tactical nuclear, so he may be being more restrained than he could be.
They may have wanted him to go in harder, but that was before they suffered the terrible losses that they did.
Pete_uk
Established Member
The new air defence system the Russians are bringing in is going to cause problems
DustyBin
Established Member
Quite possibly, although when you look back at the first few days of the invasion they weren’t exactly messing about. I suspect at this point the majority just want to see an end to the war to be honest.
There are of course hardliners who say they’d support the use of tactical nukes, but I strongly suspect that in most cases it’s propaganda. Tactical nuclear weapons aren’t actually much use when fighting highly mobile and relatively thinly spread forces along a two hundred plus mile front, and firing one into the centre of Kyiv is out of the question.
The question at this stage is go in harder with who and with what? and I’m not sure there are any palatable options really.
UN session was subdude really, but lets not forget no one speaks adlib, the responses are all heavily vetted, discussed diplomatically for alignment and are pre-prepared speeches.
The one to watch was the US response which linked the situation at the NPP with negotiations on the renewal of the Nuclear Non-prolifaration treaty.
That Suggests no real mood for negotiations and calling Russias bluff, but also points at the open channel for further discussions but in the long grass. It was the only statement pointing to a direction from the west side.
Western responses are fairly predicatble, get out get iaea in, Russia supporters are more concilatory… and that to me was the message.
It feels Russia is seeking dialog, the US turned this away from a headline to a side discussion. The lack of western media coverage also reflects that. That could be to avoid elevating public fear, to build max shock if it happens, or to not give Russia the publicity its seeking, or all three.
I suspect pain is being felt behind the scenes in Russia, and western governments feel confident enough not to be in the mood to take off that pressure yet..
for those wanting a read out, its not easy to find but its here..
world-nuclear-news.org
it means a big battle in the south looms one day closer.
The one to watch was the US response which linked the situation at the NPP with negotiations on the renewal of the Nuclear Non-prolifaration treaty.
That Suggests no real mood for negotiations and calling Russias bluff, but also points at the open channel for further discussions but in the long grass. It was the only statement pointing to a direction from the west side.
Western responses are fairly predicatble, get out get iaea in, Russia supporters are more concilatory… and that to me was the message.
It feels Russia is seeking dialog, the US turned this away from a headline to a side discussion. The lack of western media coverage also reflects that. That could be to avoid elevating public fear, to build max shock if it happens, or to not give Russia the publicity its seeking, or all three.
I suspect pain is being felt behind the scenes in Russia, and western governments feel confident enough not to be in the mood to take off that pressure yet..
for those wanting a read out, its not easy to find but its here..
In quotes: UN Security Council discusses Zaporizhzhia : Regulation & Safety - World Nuclear News
The United Nations Security Council has held an emergency meeting to discuss the situation involving the Zaporozhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine. Here is a round-up of what was said at the meeting, which was called following shelling of the site over the past week.
it means a big battle in the south looms one day closer.
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Xenophon PCDGS
Veteran Member
Could the current European heatwave have any military consequences either in Ukraine or in the Russian-controlled areas?
It will mean the ground is hard and firm (which is good for tracked vehicles crossing fields) and also makes wildfires more likely. Natural smokescreens will make targeting troops more difficult.
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DustyBin
Established Member
It may also make things even more unpleasant for the Russian soldiers, many of whom don’t want to be there in the first place. Whether that’s “significant” or not I couldn’t say, but it’s certainly not a bad thing.
TwoYellas
Member
The risks involving the Zaporozhzhia NPP and the wider risk of escalation to nuclear war in this conflict reminds me of the Fermi paradox. This is the question that with the universe being so large with so many habitable planets then why haven't we found any sign of any life?
One notion that could partly explain this is that as technologically intelligent life develops they also develop the means to destroy themselves but not the moral capacity to control or limit that destruction. Therefore these civilisations don't last long enough to contact each other.
On a different note, I've been watching that brilliant miniseries 'Chernobyl'. What strikes me even more after watching this is the complete insanity of Ukrainians and Russians fighting each other. The quicker a peaceful settlement to this the better.
One notion that could partly explain this is that as technologically intelligent life develops they also develop the means to destroy themselves but not the moral capacity to control or limit that destruction. Therefore these civilisations don't last long enough to contact each other.
On a different note, I've been watching that brilliant miniseries 'Chernobyl'. What strikes me even more after watching this is the complete insanity of Ukrainians and Russians fighting each other. The quicker a peaceful settlement to this the better.
Ah The Great Filter, the most depressing answer to the Fermi Paradox. I prefer the answer where we are early to the party in terms of intelligent life.
The peaceful settlement should be Russia withdrawing and Vlad handing himself into The Hague...
TwoYellas
Member
Very, very early. I would argue currently more closer to 'dumb' life.
Fully agree. War crimes trials for all major war criminals would be a good idea.
Gloster
Established Member
Unfortunately there is no way that he would do that, and little chance that his generals would depose him and hand him over, with the slight possible exception of them cutting a deal to avoid prosecution in return for Putin’s body (live or dead). Realpolitik means that if you can’t crush him militarily, you may have to accept a deal that lets him off lightly or completely.
Pete_uk
Established Member
Let's hope Ukraine can do enough damage to their forces that the completely collapse and sod off back home.
Hopefully, humiliated, they pay a visit to the government in Moscow.
Hopefully, humiliated, they pay a visit to the government in Moscow.
brad465
Established Member
Putin having to resort to strengthening ties with North Korea:
Russia vows to expand relations with North Korea
President Vladimir Putin made the comments in a letter sent to North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.
www.bbc.co.uk
DynamicSpirit
Established Member
Putin having to resort to strengthening ties with North Korea:
Russia vows to expand relations with North Korea
President Vladimir Putin made the comments in a letter sent to North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.www.bbc.co.uk
With this and also the news that Iran may be supplying Russia with some weapons, plus the loose alliance between Russia and China, I really get the sense that the World is splitting into two hostile blocs again, just like happened after WWII. The difference is that whereas then it was democracy+capitalism vs. authoritarian communism, now it's basically just democracy vs. authoritarianism - and there's not really any unifying ideology behind the countries on the authoritarian side.
Was it ever not thus?