Is there any sections of line that actually sees an increase of trains per hour? From my understanding Chichester - Barnham now sees 6 tph vice the current 5. I’ve not really looked in detail at stations east of Barnham.
Good question, so as far as I understand, here are the frequency changes
- Barnham to Ford - 8 tph - unchanged, but with 1 fewer service to Littlehampton and 1 additional train to Brighton from Portsmouth (avoiding Littlehampton), still 1 to Littlehampton which reverses then continues to Brighton.
- Ford to Littlehampton - 1 tph - down from 2 tph due to the Brighton to Portsmouth service being reinstated but now avoiding Littlehampton.
- Ford to Angmering - 3 tph - up from 2tph (1 of which doesnt even call at Ford anyway, the existing Brighton to Portsmouth service)
- Littlehampton to Angmering - 3 tph - up from 2 tph with the 2 existing London (via Hove) services and 1 new service to Brighton
- Angmering to Hove - 6 tph - up from 4 tph with 2 additional services into Brighton (1 each from Southampton and Chichester (via Littlehampton)), which also restores the pre-covid levels between Hove and West Worthing with the stoppers.
- Hove to Brighton - 4 tph - unchanged because Hove shuttles will no longer run, with their paths being taken up by the additional trains from west of Hove, as mentioned above, albeit, that is a reduction from pre-covid levels, which were 6 tph when combined with the west worthing stoppers, I'm sure how evenly spaced though.
Generally, there's not too much difference, but the section from Worthing to Brighton, one of the busiest routes will be increasing in frequency back to pre-covid levels, from when the West Worthing stopping services ran that were withdrawn in 2022. They are increasing frequency where it matters most, that is on balance a good increase in frequency.
They aren’t really doubling the number of trains at the particular destinations, they’re rearranging the origin/destination pairs. Both Southampton services will be to Brighton, and both Victoria services will be to Portsmouth Harbour. Portsmouth & Southsea retains a third service to Brighton.
There's no doubling in the west, because the increase is meant to be in the east, which is busier for southern, particularly as they are the only major operator there.
That does significantly impact upon the attractiveness of the train for reaching Gatwick from Southampton, you either have a more expensive journey via Clapham or a less-than-optimal connection via Barnham.
If there had never been a through service, it wouldn't be such a problem - but there has been an hourly through service since 1990 (i.e. Solent electrification). If there was a quick connection at Barnham it would be considerably more attractive though I recognise this may not be possible.
To be honest I do wonder whether they should have just left things as they were, as the "least worst" solution. Perhaps with longer turnarounds at Southampton (e.g. Victoria and Brighton interworking) to improve reliability.
It will of course make it less attractive, but there is simply fewer people that use the service from southampton compared to the service from Littlehampton. Southern looked at keeping it, but its not possible. There is not enough airport traffic to justify the service on its own. I think this an unfortunate case where they probably have to get used to a future without trains to Gatwick Airport. In regards to the status quo, that is not an option, because longer turnaround times have been mentioned time and time before, as evidence by a list southern made of changes made to the London Victoria to Portsmouth Harbour via Horsham service with some of the changes dating back as far as 2015. None of these plans worked, and southern have argued that the best option now is a radical timetable change to sort out reliability and increase capacity on busy routes. From personal experience, with your idea of having longer turnarounds at Southampton, I really think that is impractical with the station layout. If the station was larger, you could have a separate unit always at Southampton Central station for the next service, so therefore, you can avoid the issue of short turnaround time by allowing a late train to arrive late, and the next train to depart on time. However, with platform space, as well as siding space and the number of units that southern currently have, that is just impossible to achieve, and therefore majorly retiming for longer turnaround time is probably the best option at this time.