22nd February - Roadmap out of the pandemic, lifting of restrictions.

[Jamiescott1]

Within minutes of the televised premier league fixtures being announced, I cancelled the reservation i didn't need, giving over 10 days notice.

 

[VauxhallandI]

Within minutes of the televised premier league fixtures being announced, I cancelled the reservation i didn't need, giving over 10 days notice.

I’m sure they’ll struggle to reallocate that what with demand being so low...

 

[Class 33]

Additionally to add to my comments just now, the press and media seem to be generally very one-sided with their coverage to Coronavirus and the restrictions. Too much coverage of the doom and gloomers scare mongering(based on dodgy out of date "modelling"), and very little(if any atall!) coverage of the more optimistic opinions and those who say what damage these continuing restrictions are doing to the economy and people's mental health, and that these restrictions really needs to go. For instance a few weeks ago some "expert" said that there is going to be a third wave this summer which would mean a HUGE surge in cases leading to a HUGE surge in hospital admissions and deaths which would be as bad as the peak back in mid January! This of course is absolute nonsense, there is now way that will happen now due to the success of the continuing vaccination programme. But Good Morning Britain took that "expert's"(whoever he or she was) opinion as gold stamped and went and put an overblown report about this as the top headline on their programme! Absolutely ridiculous!

Also Good Morning Britain's Dr Hillary Jones recently saying "Abandon social distancing at your peril."!!! Absolutely ridiculous. Get with the real world Dr Jones, at the damage social distancing(or social nuisancing as I now prefer to call it!) is doing to the economy, people's livelihoods and mental health. We can't continue with this nonsense restriction for much longer now!

Today's total deaths in the UK just 22. That's a fair drop from last Wednesday's 38. Current 7 day average is down 28%. Deaths still absolutely tumbling week on week! Current daily average deaths in ENGLAND is now just 20. Which is absolutely miniscule. Numbers of people in hospital with Coronavirus in England now just 1,649. High high time for these nuisance damaging over the top restrictions to be completely scrapped!

 

[35B]

I'm sure that Joe public will assess the risk differently, however it's not the job of scientists to perpetuate such unfounded perceptions across the rest of the population.

I agree - which is what he is reported (albeit late in the piece @Class 33 referred to) as saying. The view that opening up is finely balanced between benefitting from the protection of vaccines and lost social contact is nothing new, and I don't see why a respected scientist repeating consensus opinion should be considered controversial.

 

[liam456]

Page 40 of the roadmap, paras 130 & 131.



See pages 47-52 of the roadmap.

Could you kindly link this detailed roadmap document, Bald Rick? I can only seem to find the short summary of each red-letter day.

 

[kez19]

Flu has been around "for ever"; Covid is new. Even if the risks of the two were the same, the fact that people assess risk differently between existing diseases and new diseases means that the perception of risk will be different.

We need to wait things out a bit while the new relationship between infections and pressure on the NHS stabilises, and we see how the mixture of downward pressure due to vaccination, and upward pressure due to increased social contact offset.

I wonder how long that wait is? They all seem to have their own ideas and models

I thought the NHS was pretty much stable since February or something? Let alone I haven’t much heard on anything else the NHS will open to the public yet?

I've read that piece, and think you're overreacting. Reading that piece, he is saying that there's a wide range of uncertainty about the impact of an increased number of cases, because we have still to see how the rest of the vaccination programme goes - both how fast it proceeds, and how many people come out for vaccination. Given - as some on here have argued vociferously - the personal benefits of vaccination become less clearcut the younger you are, assuming that the current rates will follow through into the remaining cohort is optimistic.

My own instinct is that he's being over-cautious, but I'm not going to damn him for telling me what I don't want to hear when the past year has shown that the optimists have rarely been right. And I certainly don't think that the media should avoid talking to serious scientists when they say something like this.

The media should be talking to serious scientists are we having a laugh? If the scientists bat for another team they are scolded and as I have read on numerous threads on here to the spectrum of conspiracy theorists yet if someone like Whitty produces slides and predicts things that fall on his feet the media don’t dig deeper, it’s more of a rollover effect, so why should I believe one or not the other or let’s have a halfway point but of course that’s not the point it just suits the narrative the media perceives us to believe

Fine question one person but question the other even the same questions then let us judge (that be a lot simpler to what we get spoon fed at the moment)

 

[greyman42]

IF in the event the government comes up with some claptrap as to why these restrictions must continue for however much longer, then I hope many people will rise up against these restrictions and not bother to "socially distance" and not bother to wear face masks in shops, on public transport, etc. Many will not be prepared to put up with this nonsense for any longer.

I have already risen up against these restrictions.

 

[Bikeman78]

I have already risen up against these restrictions.

More people are definitely reverting to normal behaviour. Today I rode on some HSTs. When getting off, people queued up inches away from each other just like before. At Nailsea I helped a lady off with her buggy. At Cardiff Central there were four of us in the lift. Me first, then a lady with a suitcase, then two more blokes with their bikes.

That depends on my journey. I used to have to travel from Woking to Waterloo during the evening peak. My journeys weren't usually time critical, and knowing that I'd have a more comfortable journey on the 2nd train than the 1st would definitely have affected my choice of train. If it takes Covid to make the case for this information being available, then I'll see that as a (very small) silver lining.


Completely agree.

It would be useful at high frequency places such as Woking. If the system shows that trains two and three are just as busy, there's little point in rejecting the first train. It would also be useful if it provided info as to how busy a given train is likely to be based on historical loadings. Then people with some degree of flexibility can avoid the busiest trains if they wish.

 

[duncanp]

Thought I would share this article with everyone.

It suggests that there is a "lockdown divide" opening up, and why some people want the roadmap out of the pandemic to, in the words of the article, "..take the most scenic route possible..."

Lockdown supporters can't claim to be caring liberals when they're condemning millions to poverty

Over the past year, a massive divide has opened up between those who have saved during Covid and those who have been driven into debt

www.telegraph.co.uk

Lockdown supporters can't claim to be caring liberals when they're condemning millions to poverty​

Over the past year, a massive divide has opened up between those who have saved during Covid and those who have been driven into debt

he expensive commute has been ditched. That homemade sandwich costs far less than an avocado and salmon baguette from Pret. And no one has to get their suit pressed, or worry about whether they have the right kind of jacket and skirt combination for a meeting with clients.

For whole swathes of society, the Covid-19 crisis has been surprisingly rewarding, with vast sums of money saved. But hold on. As a report from the Resolution Foundation today made clear, a gulf has opened up between what might be called the "locked-ups" and the "locked-downs". An affluent, shielded majority seems to care less and less about the people who are losing out from this pandemic and its associated lockdowns – and that gulf is becoming more painfully obvious with every day that passes.

If you work in the public sector, or in a skilled, white-collar profession, the last year might have been a little samey. But financially it has probably been very good. Incomes have been protected, either by working from home, or through the furlough scheme, while restaurants have remained unbooked, and holidays have been left on hold. The result? The British, who normally hammer their credit cards with a gleeful irresponsibility, have been turned into a nation of savers again.

Pantheon Macroeconomics calculates there has been £150 billion of "extra saving" over the last year, the equivalent of 7 per cent of GDP. One-off mortgage repayments have hit record levels as debts get paid off, and huge amounts of extra cash has been stashed into ISAs. The number of houses bought has reached a record high. Overall, money has been banked for a spending spree – 20 per cent of households report that they have saved more than usual over the last year.

Here’s the problem, however. Not everyone can join the party. The Resolution Foundation report found that there were pockets of real hardship despite the various support schemes the Government has put in place. It calculated that 33 per cent of families had been forced to cut spending. Another 17 per cent have been forced to take on more debt just to make ends meet, a much higher figure than in France or Germany where lockdowns have been less severe, at least up until now, and welfare systems are more generous.

It is not hard to work out why. Job losses have been concentrated at the bottom of the income scale, especially in low-earning sectors such as bars, restaurants, nail salons and hairdressers. Many small businesses have just about limped through the last year with soft loans and some breaks on business rates but they know they will not be able to survive when life gets back to normal. The self-employed, almost as big a slice of the workforce as the public sector, and far more important in Britain than most of our competitors, have been shamefully excluded from support schemes. Add it all up, and you get the third of households that have suffered over the last year.

In truth, Covid-19 is driving a new wedge between the economy’s winners and losers. Among the top fifth of earners, 35 per cent of households report that they have saved more, but in the bottom fifth it is just 6 per cent, and in the next lowest quintile just 10 per cent. Our society will come out of this crisis less equal than ever.

What is genuinely shocking, however, is how little the lockdown winners appear to care. Switching from Zoom meetings, to online Powerpoint presentations, to baking another loaf of sourdough bread, many of them seem happy for the roadmap out of lockdown to take the most scenic route possible, and for the virus to be completely eradicated, not just in the UK but around the world, before we get back to normal again.

Ironically many of them no doubt think of themselves as caring liberals. But they have retreated into a cosy "zero Covid" worldview that is condemning many of their fellow citizens to poverty.

The longer lockdown lasts, even in its truncated form, the worse that divide will get. And as we finally emerge from lockdown, that will become more and more painfully apparent: the affluent majority will be spending all their extra money while the hard-pressed minority will be worrying about how to pay off all the extra debt they have taken on.

A new divide is opening up – and it will take a long time for those scars to heal.

 

[Jamiescott1]

Thought I would share this article with everyone.

It suggests that there is a "lockdown divide" opening up, and why some people want the roadmap out of the pandemic to, in the words of the article, "..take the most scenic route possible..."

Lockdown supporters can't claim to be caring liberals when they're condemning millions to poverty

Over the past year, a massive divide has opened up between those who have saved during Covid and those who have been driven into debt

www.telegraph.co.uk

I think there's a middle group here who saved during lockdown but now want to restrictions to end and spend their saved money in restaurants and on holidays

 

[Jamesrob637]

I think there's a middle group here who saved during lockdown but now want to restrictions to end and spend their saved money in restaurants and on holidays

Which is why I want furlough to end ASAP and people to start contributing to the economy.

 

[Smidster]

Could you kindly link this detailed roadmap document, Bald Rick? I can only seem to find the short summary of each red-letter day.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/963491/COVID-19_Response_-_Spring_2021.pdf

 

[Ediswan]

See pages 47-52 of the roadmap.

I looked there. I don't see anything which says

"reclaiming our lost freedoms & getting back to normal hinges on us all getting tested regularly"?

This appears to have reached the limit of my compliance. To the extent that the numbers are availble, I consider that, for me, twice-weekly testing is far more likely to result in a false positive than detecting an infection.

Look at the numbers. False positives are 'less than' 1 in 1,000. 'Less than' could mean 1 in 1,001. Take ten tests (two per week takes just over a month) and you are close to 1 in 100. No thanks.

 

[yorkie]

Lockdown enthusiasts are extremely dangerous; the majority of us need to ensure our voice is heard and send them packing.

 

[kez19]

Thought I would share this article with everyone.

It suggests that there is a "lockdown divide" opening up, and why some people want the roadmap out of the pandemic to, in the words of the article, "..take the most scenic route possible..."

Lockdown supporters can't claim to be caring liberals when they're condemning millions to poverty

Over the past year, a massive divide has opened up between those who have saved during Covid and those who have been driven into debt

www.telegraph.co.uk

we should remember what has exactly caused this and for people to think this way, I don’t blame a majority of them on furlough who are willing to return to work but it’s the attitude that needs to change, I’ll guess media will soon class these people who are on/had been on furlough as heroes too next? In general all this leads to those that’s created this division this leads from media, scientists and governments but what do you expect they are in it together (there is probably more togetherness with them ie media scientists governments than you and I - is that because that’s what they wanted you and I at each other’s throats whilst they sit and watch? (not personally at you but get point)).

If that article says is true then surely the public should be at least being more aware of what’s happening or again just sleepwalking?

 

[cuccir]

It would be nice though if they could convey the nuance of Prof Finn's message a bit more than halfway through the article though, but that's a matter for a different thread!

I'd say though that it drives this thread. Soooo many posts I see on here are responding in dismay to negative claims that upon scrutiny are scientifically fair: they express reasonable uncertainty, ranges of possibility, and make deliberate uses of shoulds, coulds and mights. These hesitations are then stripped out of headlines and only quoted in the second half of any reporting.

 

[Bald Rick]

Duplicate.

 

[liam456]

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/963491/COVID-19_Response_-_Spring_2021.pdf

Duplicate.

Thank you both

 

[kristiang85]

Lockdown enthusiasts are extremely dangerous; the majority of us need to ensure our voice is heard and send them packing.

Indeed. Given the lack of conviction even from Fauci when being questioned on it, I still really think that governments are struggling to show it was the best option so they can justify the collatoral damage they have caused.

(sorry this is a Breitbart video, but it's the only one I could find beyond the full 3hr version!)

 

[Bikeman78]

I looked there. I don't see anything which says


This appears to have reached the limit of my compliance. To the extent that the numbers are availble, I consider that, for me, twice-weekly testing is far more likely to result in a false positive than detecting an infection.

Look at the numbers. False positives are 'less than' 1 in 1,000. 'Less than' could mean 1 in 1,001. Take ten tests (two per week takes just over a month) and you are close to 1 in 100. No thanks.

Is any other country in the world doing this number of tests, or proposing to do so? What's the end game? I've never had a test; never had any reason to take one.

 

[Bantamzen]

Is any other country in the world doing this number of tests, or proposing to do so? What's the end game? I've never had a test; never had any reason to take one.

And this is the key question. When even someone like Whitty admits that more testing will result in more cases being found, and given that the virus is now endemic it is going to be a permanent feature, you do have to ask where are we going with this?

I'm sorry to say but I am of the conclusion that this is now about profits more than anything else. In the short term the government has to justify the billions spent on track and trace as well as all the tests bought. However they are not going be buying tests to offer out for free forever. Sooner or later in a system where mass tracing becomes a semi-permanent thing, Joe Public will have to start reaching into their own pockets to pay for it all. And that I fear is the end game in the minds of this government, a society that requires you to test for covid at least once or twice a week to allow you to function normally. So they sell you the LFTs at say £5 a pop, and if those dodgy little white strips detect anything that loosely resembles the virus, you get to isolate until your £120 PCR results come back.

Cynical, me?

 

[duncanp]

And that I fear is the end game in the minds of this government, a society that requires you to test for covid at least once or twice a week to allow you to function normally. So they sell you the LFTs at say £5 a pop, and if those dodgy little white strips detect anything that loosely resembles the virus, you get to isolate until your £120 PCR results come back.

Cynical, me?

If this is what transpires, then people will simply not bother to insert the cotton bud up their nose or down their throat, and then just register the test result as negative.

If people have to pay as much as £10 per week, per person, just to be able to function normally, there will be huge protests, both in parliament and in the country in general.

The incident where Sir Keir Starmer got chucked out of the pub a few days ago () shows just how much anger there is in the country, bubbling under the surface.

 

[Ianno87]

I'd say though that it drives this thread. Soooo many posts I see on here are responding in dismay to negative claims that upon scrutiny are scientifically fair: they express reasonable uncertainty, ranges of possibility, and make deliberate uses of shoulds, coulds and mights. These hesitations are then stripped out of headlines and only quoted in the second half of any reporting.

Yep, ask a scientist and you'll get the scientific answer. "The science" comes with assumptions and uncertainties. But nobody pays attention to the boring bits and caveats that are just as important in what they are trying to say.

 

[yorksrob]

And this is the key question. When even someone like Whitty admits that more testing will result in more cases being found, and given that the virus is now endemic it is going to be a permanent feature, you do have to ask where are we going with this?

I'm sorry to say but I am of the conclusion that this is now about profits more than anything else. In the short term the government has to justify the billions spent on track and trace as well as all the tests bought. However they are not going be buying tests to offer out for free forever. Sooner or later in a system where mass tracing becomes a semi-permanent thing, Joe Public will have to start reaching into their own pockets to pay for it all. And that I fear is the end game in the minds of this government, a society that requires you to test for covid at least once or twice a week to allow you to function normally. So they sell you the LFTs at say £5 a pop, and if those dodgy little white strips detect anything that loosely resembles the virus, you get to isolate until your £120 PCR results come back.

Cynical, me?

Exactly. I always ask "what is the endgame" with these sorts of things. If there isn't a point at which some improved state is achieved and the said intervention can be removed, then it's probably pointless. It's the same with indefinate restrictions beyond the vaccine programme. No defined circumstance at which point they will be removed ? Don't impose them in the first place.

This mass testing seems to be a distraction from the one thing that is genuinely likely to make a difference. The vaccine rollout.

 

[PHILIPE]

Yesterday Bojo was praising the success of the Vaccine in reducing cases but a few days ago he claimed the reduction in cases was due to the Lock Down in December and not due to the vaccine. The man is clueless.

 

[Eyersey468]

Yesterday Bojo was praising the success of the Vaccine in reducing cases but a few days ago he claimed the reduction in cases was due to the Lock Down in December and not due to the vaccine. The man is clueless.

I've come to the conclusion he throws darts at a board to decide what his point of view is for the day. Actually he might be more consistent if he did that lol

 

[Mag_seven]

I've come to the conclusion he throws darts at a board to decide what his point of view is for the day. Actually he might be more consistent if he did that lol

That's more or less what he did when he decided what his view on Brexit would be - remember he wrote two articles for the Torygraph, one pro and one anti.

 

[LAX54]

Lockdown enthusiasts are extremely dangerous; the majority of us need to ensure our voice is heard and send them packing.

and get rid of the daft 'one way' systems that some places have, called into a Garden Centre the other day, only needed one thing, but had to go on about a mile hike just to get to it...near the checkouts, staff did not seem happy when I tried a shortcut ! lol, and there are still 'scared' people out there too, the person in front of me waiting to have a checkout lane free kept looking at me, intimating I was too close, and kept shuffling around, trying to keep away from me ! (unless I needed a bath of course! )

 

[greyman42]

Regarding the one way systems and other pointless rules, if people simply ignore them then the establishments will soon drop them, so the ball is in our court.

 

[brad465]

And this is the key question. When even someone like Whitty admits that more testing will result in more cases being found, and given that the virus is now endemic it is going to be a permanent feature, you do have to ask where are we going with this?

I'm sorry to say but I am of the conclusion that this is now about profits more than anything else. In the short term the government has to justify the billions spent on track and trace as well as all the tests bought. However they are not going be buying tests to offer out for free forever. Sooner or later in a system where mass tracing becomes a semi-permanent thing, Joe Public will have to start reaching into their own pockets to pay for it all. And that I fear is the end game in the minds of this government, a society that requires you to test for covid at least once or twice a week to allow you to function normally. So they sell you the LFTs at say £5 a pop, and if those dodgy little white strips detect anything that loosely resembles the virus, you get to isolate until your £120 PCR results come back.

Cynical, me?

If this is what transpires, then people will simply not bother to insert the cotton bud up their nose or down their throat, and then just register the test result as negative.

If people have to pay as much as £10 per week, per person, just to be able to function normally, there will be huge protests, both in parliament and in the country in general.

The incident where Sir Keir Starmer got chucked out of the pub a few days ago () shows just how much anger there is in the country, bubbling under the surface.

I think if mass testing continues on the grounds of what Bantamzen says then what duncanp has said will be the result, even if the protests are muted the falsification of test results will take off, proof of this is how few people are known to be isolating because they can't afford it, so either refuse to take a test or pick the phone up from T&T.

What we need is someone in Parliament to make a strong stand and question the costs of this testing and put forward the case such money would be far better spent on healthcare improvements and encouraging healthy lifestyles that reduce the NHS burden overall.