22nd February - Roadmap out of the pandemic, lifting of restrictions.

[duncanp]

My guess is that the current restrictions on international travel may be kept in place until the continent has got its third wave under control.

Which could happen before 17th May anyway, as this is two months in the future.

I would imagine that when international travel does open up, proof of vaccination or a recent negative COVID test will be required.

On a more positive note, I see that President Biden has said that all US citizens will be eligible for a COVID vaccination by May 1st, and that he hopes to substantially ease restrictions before the 4th July holiday.

So I might finally be able to visit the US in August this year, around 16 months later than originally planned.

 

[Luke McDonnell]

My guess is that the current restrictions on international travel may be kept in place until the continent has got its third wave under control.

The most ludicrous thing in that quote in the Times from a government source was that it citied unvaccinated children as a justification for keeping international travel restrictions in place they very very rarely get seriously ill and the clinical trials for vaccines for kids are only in early stages so if you could say that could rule it out for quite a while.

 

[yorksrob]

Which could happen before 17th May anyway, as this is two months in the future.

I would imagine that when international travel does open up, proof of vaccination or a recent negative COVID test will be required.

On a more positive note, I see that President Biden has said that all US citizens will be eligible for a COVID vaccination by May 1st, and that he hopes to substantially ease restrictions before the 4th July holiday.

So I might finally be able to visit the US in August this year, around 16 months later than originally planned.

I hope we'll be in a similar position by then.

The most ludicrous thing in that quote in the Times from a government source was that it citied unvaccinated children as a justification for keeping international travel restrictions in place they very very rarely get seriously ill and the clinical trials for vaccines for kids are only in early stages so if you could say that could rule it out for quite a while.

I'm guessing there will be a sweet spot by which time most adults both here and in Europe will have had the jab, by which time travel between the two will have eased substantially.

 

[Mintona]

Fairly sure the rise in cases in Europe will be enough of a reason not to ease restrictions any time soon.

 

[kristiang85]

Fairly sure the rise in cases in Europe will be enough of a reason not to ease restrictions any time soon.

There is no way we should have domestic restrictions because our continental neighbours are having another "wave". Besides, it will probably peak in mid April anyway, so it will be even less of an excuse for the May/June easing.

 

[Richard Scott]

The most ludicrous thing in that quote in the Times from a government source was that it citied unvaccinated children as a justification for keeping international travel restrictions in place they very very rarely get seriously ill and the clinical trials for vaccines for kids are only in early stages so if you could say that could rule it out for quite a while.

To be honest I'm fed up with the media, politicians and other panickers coming up with ever more ridiculous reasons for continual restrictions. They are pathetic and really lacking in any intelligence.

 

[Eyersey468]

To be honest I'm fed up with the media, politicians and other panickers coming up with ever more ridiculous reasons for continual restrictions. They are pathetic and really lacking in any intelligence.

+1

 

[Bald Rick]

One of the things politicians are going to have to used is that infections (not cases) do not necessarily translate into hospitalisations or deaths, especially once a significant amount of the most vulnerable are vaccinated.

They know that, and always have.

The key stat is the number of people in hospital, particularly those on mechanical ventilation and/or in high dependency units. These are following a steady trend, down around 25% a week through this month, with the first signs of the trend slowing a little in the last few days. By the end of the month we will still have somewhere around 4,000 people in hospital, with 5-600 on ventilation, and still be on a downward trend.

 

[kristiang85]

. By the end of the month we will still have somewhere around 4,000 people in hospital, with 5-600 on ventilation, and still be on a downward trend.

But in the context of 1250 hospitals and 180,000 hospital beds, that's not bad at all.

 

[Bald Rick]

But in the context of 1250 hospitals and 180,000 hospital beds, that's not bad at all.

Certainly much better than 2-3 months ago, for sure. And approaching the level of being sustainable, but I’m fairly sure Government would want it lower still - possibly at the level it will be by mid-end April, which will be about half these numbers.

 

[bramling]

+1

+1,000,000!

Some of the stuff on Facebook is absolutely absurd now. One on my local page is sounding off as we speak at the moment that we should have “tough new restrictions to reassure the elderly”.

 

[Bald Rick]

+1,000,000!

Some of the stuff on Facebook is absolutely absurd now. One on my local page is sounding off as we speak at the moment that we should have “tough new restrictions to reassure the elderly”.

I’m glad I’m not in the same Facebook groups as you; I’m afraid I’d be rather impolite to anyone saying that. The same as I’m impolite to the antivaxxers.

 

[kristiang85]

+1,000,000!

One on my local page is sounding off as we speak at the moment that we should have “tough new restrictions to reassure the elderly”.

I have to wonder if the plan is for me to be turned into a lifeless drone simply designed to sit at home, working away to pay taxes that will keep a cycle of vaccinations and testing going for the elderly whilst the rest of society fades away.

 

[Jamiescott1]

Went for my morning run slightly later today so it was busier.
Alot of people still turned into the hedge or put a scarf over their mouth when we passed.
2 old ladies in front of us going in the sane direction along a narrow part of the path refused to move one behind the other so we could pass and kept walking to abreast. When the path widened and we got past they accused us of breathing all over them. My response contained a lot of 4 letter words

 

[Bald Rick]

My response contained a lot of 4 letter words

Personally, I’d have coughed (after passing them).

 

[Freightmaster]

2 old ladies in front of us going in the sane insane direction along a narrow part of the path refused to move one behind the other so we could pass and kept walking to abreast. When the path widened and we got past they accused us of breathing all over them...

Fixed that for you...






MARK

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

The "third wave" in Europe is just Europe catching up on the highly infectious British variant, so effectively we've already had it. We know we're absolutely miles ahead on vaccinations, so now isn't the time to start panicking over the fact that other countries are entering exactly the same situation we were in 3-4 months ago.

GSIAD data suggests it the Sth African and Brazilian variants that are on the march across Europe not the UK variant.

Its also interesting to see in UK that areas that had high prevalence of Kent variants are now amongst the lowest areas of cases currently. Further beyond London cases are increasing, not exponentially, but certainly at a rate that will cause them concern. of the view that areas but you do have to question whether letting it rip, if its done at a level the NHS can cope, is still not the most sound strategy.

One of the things politicians are going to have to used is that infections (not cases) do not necessarily translate into hospitalisations or deaths, especially once a significant amount of the most vulnerable are vaccinated. A country could have millions of new infections, but this wouldn't mean that their healthcare systems would get overwhelmed providing that a) They have progressed with a sensible & non-political vaccination programme and b) they have invested properly into their healthcare systems.

Spot on and the next few weeks will show whether politicians recognise that link has been broken or not when they do the first review as my belief is we will see areas outside of London & SE showing increasing rates albeit at levels way below the need for a full lockdown.

 

[bramling]

I’m glad I’m not in the same Facebook groups as you; I’m afraid I’d be rather impolite to anyone saying that. The same as I’m impolite to the antivaxxers.

I spent yesterday being absolutely pilloried on there. Gave as good as I got though.

I have to wonder if the plan is for me to be turned into a lifeless drone simply designed to sit at home, working away to pay taxes that will keep a cycle of vaccinations and testing going for the elderly whilst the rest of society fades away.

It feels like it. There’s certainly a subset of people who seem to want a “basic zombie existence” where they get up, take the dog for a short rural walk, pick up a coffee from the take-away coffee shop, visit Tesco’s, check the furlough payments have gone in, and repeat the cycle ad-nauseam.

 

[Bertie the bus]

I can accept not easing things quicker but really fear that the easing of restrictions will be delayed, some wont happen or measures will be reintroduced after a short time.

Every stat on the virus is going the right way and on a personal level by the middle of may I will have had both doses of the vaccine so will have as much protection as I'm going to get. This is all good but the scientists keep telling us how worried they are by variants and now rising cases in Europe.

Having been stuck at home for nearly three months now apart from walks round the local are its getting to be to much. I've therefore made plans for days out at the end of April and a UK holiday in June. If they get cancelled it would be devastating.

I wish I had more faith but Boris has previously said we will send the virus acking in 12 weeks, then it was back to normal by Christmas, then Easter, then June and now they're talk of keeping some restrictions.

Incidentally when will it end if the vacine isn't enough?

I had little faith in the roadmap when it was published and I’ve seen nothing since to change my mind.

I think at this stage people who want to get out and about should be asking themselves 3 questions:

What am I permitted to do?

Would I enjoy it?

Would I feel comfortable doing it?

If a day out involves visiting or doing something that is still prohibited then there isn’t much point doing it. Similarly if the very thought of encountering the police fills you with dread or every time you see a police car you think they might pull you over and attempt to issue a fine it isn’t going to be much fun. However, if a day out is simply going somewhere outside of your local area for recreation and you understand there is virtually no chance of even seeing a police car, never mind being stopped, people really need to start doing things again.

 

[Eyersey468]

I’m glad I’m not in the same Facebook groups as you; I’m afraid I’d be rather impolite to anyone saying that. The same as I’m impolite to the antivaxxers.

I'd be struggling to bite my tongue to anyone saying that as well. Depends what is meant by antivaxxer, I don't buy into all this 5G and microchip rubbish but did have concerns about how quickly they were developed and the fact we don't know if there any long term effects to them

 

[Philip]

GSIAD data suggests it the Sth African and Brazilian variants that are on the march across Europe not the UK variant.

Its also interesting to see in UK that areas that had high prevalence of Kent variants are now amongst the lowest areas of cases currently. Further beyond London cases are increasing, not exponentially, but certainly at a rate that will cause them concern. of the view that areas but you do have to question whether letting it rip, if its done at a level the NHS can cope, is still not the most sound strategy.

Spot on and the next few weeks will show whether politicians recognise that link has been broken or not when they do the first review as my belief is we will see areas outside of London & SE showing increasing rates albeit at levels way below the need for a full lockdown.

Regional comparisons really need to be played down; because of various reasons (less WFH, higher density housing, more people per household, poorer health etc) there are some areas which are always likely to have higher case rates and more susceptible to surges. But regional lockdowns/restrictions, tiers etc didn't work last year so if there are surges in case numbers in some regions then the government will either rely on the vaccines doing their job, or if they go with more restrictions (unlikely I think) then these will be on a national scale.

 

[initiation]

One of the things politicians are going to have to used is that infections (not cases) do not necessarily translate into hospitalisations or deaths, especially once a significant amount of the most vulnerable are vaccinated. A country could have millions of new infections, but this wouldn't mean that their healthcare systems would get overwhelmed providing that a) They have progressed with a sensible & non-political vaccination programme and b) they have invested properly into their healthcare systems.

Absolutely this. Public opinion /perception is obviously key and all depends on the media 'optics' of the situation. It would be very easy for the Government to pump out information that cases are rising expontentially, the NHS is 'at risk' of being overwhelmed etc... Conversely they could very easily start a proper conversation around yes cases are rising but the NHS is no longer at risk due to our heroic efforts.

I know which is more likely...

 

[Eyersey468]

Absolutely this. Public opinion /perception is obviously key and all depends on the media 'optics' of the situation. It would be very easy for the Government to pump out information that cases are rising expontentially, the NHS is 'at risk' of being overwhelmed etc... Conversely they could very easily start a proper conversation around yes cases are rising but the NHS is no longer at risk due to our heroic efforts.

I know which is more likely...

So do I

 

[Domh245]

Conversely they could very easily start a proper conversation around yes cases are rising but the NHS is no longer at risk due to our heroic efforts.

Which heroic efforts are those? NHS bed capacity is little changed compared to this time last year, and even with the success of the vaccine rollout there's still a large body of people for whom it won't work and are thus liable to be hospitalised, giving a definitively non-zero risk of overwhelming the health service, particularly if restrictions are fully removed with relatively high case numbers, and low population immunity

A proper conversation would highlight that this risk still exists, and why we can't just "jab the vulnerable & go"...

 

[Bald Rick]

Depends what is meant by antivaxxer, I don't buy into all this 5G and microchip rubbish but did have concerns about how quickly they were developed and the fact we don't know if there any long term effects to them

Well in the case of my Facebook feed, a couple of people who think all vaccines for all ailments are a massive conspiracy by pharmaceutical companies, Governements, and (evidently) almost the entire medical profession. There’s no need to put ‘chemicals’ in your body, because the Lord will save you. (I regularly use to see one of these people eat food that was stuffed full of ‘E’ numbers’.)

In terms of the Covid vaccine - it’s safe. I think in the last 30 years there have been only two vaccines withdrawn for longer term side effects, and both of those showed themselves in a shorter time than this vaccine has been around. Don’t forget that the vaccines (the AZ one at least) were already development, and were ‘only’ amended to fit Covid. The people developing these (and I know a couple of them) have a very good understanding of the detail of the biological formulations, and what triggers side effects.

 

[Bertie the bus]

A proper conversation would highlight that this risk still exists, and why we can't just "jab the vulnerable & go"...

Why are people talking about conversations? The government and the people advising them have never had, and never will have, any interest in starting a conversation. We will decide what is and isn’t acceptable and you will do as we say. That is the limit of the conversation.

 

[Eyersey468]

Well in the case of my Facebook feed, a couple of people who think all vaccines for all ailments are a massive conspiracy by pharmaceutical companies, Governements, and (evidently) almost the entire medical profession. There’s no need to put ‘chemicals’ in your body, because the Lord will save you. (I regularly use to see one of these people eat food that was stuffed full of ‘E’ numbers’.)

In terms of the Covid vaccine - it’s safe. I think in the last 30 years there have been only two vaccines withdrawn for longer term side effects, and both of those showed themselves in a shorter time than this vaccine has been around. Don’t forget that the vaccines (the AZ one at least) were already development, and were ‘only’ amended to fit Covid. The people developing these (and I know a couple of them) have a very good understanding of the detail of the biological formulations, and what triggers side effects.

I'm glad that the vaccine programme seems to be working well and we are ahead of schedule on it. I have never thought the governments would deliberately allow an unsafe Vaccine to be used

 

[greyman42]

I personally think that if more people considered the possibility, it would lead them to think more clearly about the implications of long term restrictions. The continual "freedom is just around the corner" mindset enables people to avoid thinking about the balance between risk and freedom properly.

If this carries on, more people are going to loose their jobs than already have done, and this may bring some people back to the reality that this is not one long holiday that can go on forever.

 

[Pete_uk]

If this carries on, more people are going to loose their jobs than already have done, and this may bring some people back to the reality that this is not one long holiday that can go on forever.

But are those screaming for a harsher lockdown going to loose anything?

Would any benefits they get reduce by 20% if we lock down again?

 

[Yew]

Which heroic efforts are those? NHS bed capacity is little changed compared to this time last year, and even with the success of the vaccine rollout there's still a large body of people for whom it won't work and are thus liable to be hospitalised, giving a definitively non-zero risk of overwhelming the health service, particularly if restrictions are fully removed with relatively high case numbers, and low population immunity

The majority of adults in the UK have been vaccinated.