22nd February - Roadmap out of the pandemic, lifting of restrictions.

[Eyersey468]

But are those screaming for a harsher lockdown going to loose anything?

Would any benefits they get reduce by 20% if we lock down again?

In my experience the income of those screaming for longer/harsher lockdowns is safe through being retired, working in the public sector etc

 

[greyman42]

In my experience the income of those screaming for longer/harsher lockdowns is safe through being retired, working in the public sector etc

In my experience it is not the retired who are screaming for lockdowns. These are people who have worked all their working lives and do not want to spend what years they have left in lockdown. In my opinion the people who do want lockdowns are people who do not like working for a living and have no social life.

 

[Eyersey468]

In my experience it is not the retired who are screaming for lockdowns. These are people who have worked all their working lives and do not want to spend what years they have left in lockdown. In my opinion the people who do want lockdowns are people who do not like working for a living and have no social life.

I wasn't trying to imply all retired people were wanting lockdown, I apologise if my post came across like that

 

[packermac]

Which could happen before 17th May anyway, as this is two months in the future.

I would imagine that when international travel does open up, proof of vaccination or a recent negative COVID test will be required.

On a more positive note, I see that President Biden has said that all US citizens will be eligible for a COVID vaccination by May 1st, and that he hopes to substantially ease restrictions before the 4th July holiday.

So I might finally be able to visit the US in August this year, around 16 months later than originally planned.

But what as does a vaccination provide? Yes you are likely not to need hospitalisation or die, but you can still pass on the virus. A negative Covid test (maybe up to 5 days before) just proves at the time of the test you did not have it. So what is the roadmap beyond most being vaccinated?
Is the world prepared to live with high Covid levels, the last 12 months says not.
What about those that have had closed borders NZ, Australia for example, what is their plan?
Domestic may open, I see no path for international travel yet.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Regional comparisons really need to be played down; because of various reasons (less WFH, higher density housing, more people per household, poorer health etc) there are some areas which are always likely to have higher case rates and more susceptible to surges. But regional lockdowns/restrictions, tiers etc didn't work last year so if there are surges in case numbers in some regions then the government will either rely on the vaccines doing their job, or if they go with more restrictions (unlikely I think) then these will be on a national scale.

Indeed but parts of London fall into that category but they had high prevalence over Xmas into January but its dropped right off now. So my thoughts are that where the B1.1.7 variant already had high penetration into the local population they are showing limited if any impact from step 1.

 

[NorthOxonian]

But what as does a vaccination provide? Yes you are likely not to need hospitalisation or die, but you can still pass on the virus. A negative Covid test (maybe up to 5 days before) just proves at the time of the test you did not have it. So what is the roadmap beyond most being vaccinated?
Is the world prepared to live with high Covid levels, the last 12 months says not.
What about those that have had closed borders NZ, Australia for example, what is their plan?
Domestic may open, I see no path for international travel yet.

It's about the risks and benefits. The likelihood of someone passing the virus on is lower if they've been vaccinated, and it's far less likely that they'll become seriously ill. That means the risks of international travel are reduced substantially. They aren't zero, but they're low enough to where the benefits of tourism to the economy and people's mental health outweigh that small risk.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

It's about the risks and benefits. The likelihood of someone passing the virus on is lower if they've been vaccinated, and it's far less likely that they'll become seriously ill. That means the risks of international travel are reduced substantially. They aren't zero, but they're low enough to where the benefits of tourism to the economy and people's mental health outweigh that small risk.

Well another 589k achieved 1st dose yesterday or a staggering 710k people including 2nd dose and the key metric of those hospitalised in England continues its relentless decline down to 4589. So conditions are being established to allow domestic relaxation to proceed to plan and in my view if education shows no impact at the point of review then acceleration of subsequent steps should happen.

Much as i want to get back to travelling I do feel we need to exercise extreme caution over allowing international travel just yet as the most important goal currently must be to ensure all UK restrictions are removed fully to allow us to get on with normal daily life. I for one are happy to wait out another year.

 

[greyman42]

I wasn't trying to imply all retired people were wanting lockdown, I apologise if my post came across like that

No bother. Sorry if my reply came across as a bit snappy.

 

[yorksrob]

Well another 589k achieved 1st dose yesterday or a staggering 710k people including 2nd dose and the key metric of those hospitalised in England continues its relentless decline down to 4589. So conditions are being established to allow domestic relaxation to proceed to plan and in my view if education shows no impact at the point of review then acceleration of subsequent steps should happen.

Much as i want to get back to travelling I do feel we need to exercise extreme caution over allowing international travel just yet as the most important goal currently must be to ensure all UK restrictions are removed fully to allow us to get on with normal daily life. I for one are happy to wait out another year.

I agree with this sentiment 100 per cent.

 

[bramling]

In my experience it is not the retired who are screaming for lockdowns. These are people who have worked all their working lives and do not want to spend what years they have left in lockdown. In my opinion the people who do want lockdowns are people who do not like working for a living and have no social life.

Yes I don't think it is the retired. Most of the ones bleating on facebook seem to be middle-aged females, claiming to speak on elderly peoples behalf.

 

[yorksrob]

Indeed. I strenuously dislike working for a living, yet I also hate lockdown.

 

[takno]

Yes I don't think it is the retired. Most of the ones bleating on facebook seem to be middle-aged females, claiming to speak on elderly peoples behalf.

As far as I can that's most of the people still on Facebook anyway. My newsfeed is completely dead, and the groups I'm in seem to be getting progressively less lively as well

 

[Eyersey468]

No bother. Sorry if my reply came across as a bit snappy.

No problem

 

[Bald Rick]

Yes I don't think it is the retired. Most of the ones bleating on facebook seem to be middle-aged females, claiming to speak on elderly peoples behalf.

I know rather a lot of middle aged women (too many, according to Mrs BR) and not one of them holds an opinion like this. Must be the friends you keep / area you live in!

 

[bramling]

I know rather a lot of middle aged women (too many, according to Mrs BR) and not one of them holds an opinion like this. Must be the friends you keep / area you live in!

Yes it does feel like Mumsnet-Central round here at times!

To be fair I don't really know why I bother with the local Facebook page, as the general theme (when not advocating one-way systems and moaning about young people sitting on benches) is "I just went to town, isn't it lovely, aren't we so special to live here"...

 

[Freightmaster]

On a more positive note, I see that President Biden has said that all US citizens will be eligible for a COVID vaccination by May 1st, and that he hopes to substantially ease restrictions before the 4th July holiday.

So I might finally be able to visit the US in August this year, around 16 months later than originally planned.

I'm hoping to get back to the US within the next 12 months, too!


By June, the vast majority of adults in both countries (UK and USA) will have been vaccinated,
so it would be a major political 'win' if Boris and Biden were to announce at the G7 summit in
Cornwall that a 'travel corridor' was to be established to enable people to travel freely between
the two countries again with immediate effect.

Does that sound plausible?





MARK

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

I'm hoping to get back to the US within the next 12 months, too!


By June, the vast majority of adults in both countries (UK and USA) will have been vaccinated,
so it would be a major political 'win' if Boris and Biden were to announce at the G7 summit in
Cornwall that a 'travel corridor' was to be established to enable people to travel freely between
the two countries again with immediate effect.

Does that sound plausible?





MARK

US does seem to have overcome the worst with many states rolling back restrictions and some that never took them to heart like Florida looking in good shape so it looks more possible than half of Europe currently. I would still advocate caution until there is more certainty that vaccination largely keeps a lid on its spread so its no worse than other respiratory viruses.

 

[yorksrob]

US does seem to have overcome the worst with many states rolling back restrictions and some that never took them to heart like Florida looking in good shape so it looks more possible than half of Europe currently. I would still advocate caution until there is more certainty that vaccination largely keeps a lid on its spread so its no worse than other respiratory viruses.

I would exercise caution in terms of international travel for a while. I would bring forward elements of domesic release more quickly.

 

[liam456]

It was abundantly clear that last summer, allowing international travel was the death of us, and we paid for it dearly these last months. Likewise I'm fine with getting my life back soon it it means international travel is next year. My eurotunnel booking will just be pushed back further and further. It's been 5 times I've rescheduled it now!

 

[initiation]

Which heroic efforts are those?

I was referring to the public perception/media 'optics' of the situation. The heoric effort in this case would be sold as the sacrifice of lockdown etc... over the last 12 months.

giving a definitively non-zero risk of overwhelming the health service

When was the decision made for a zero risk!? Why is that even being discussed? Zero risk does not exist. If this is our requirement then we are literally never getting rid of all restrictions.


Even a large hospital could be overwhelmed by a large multi-car crash on a motorway or a big train crash - perhaps we should also ban forever all non-essential journeys by cars or trains.

Insane.

 

[nlogax]

I'm hoping to get back to the US within the next 12 months, too!


By June, the vast majority of adults in both countries (UK and USA) will have been vaccinated,
so it would be a major political 'win' if Boris and Biden were to announce at the G7 summit in
Cornwall that a 'travel corridor' was to be established to enable people to travel freely between
the two countries again with immediate effect.

Does that sound plausible?

Maybe to some of us here but I can't imagine the probability of it occurring is high. As per any of our collective desire for restrictions to disappear, it's just that..desire. It'll happen when it happens and there's bugger all we can do about it.

A typical year for me features multiple weeks in the US for work and other stuff. I've mentally nixed any idea of that happening in 2021.

 

[Yew]

It'll happen when it happens and there's bugger all we can do about it.

I fundamentally disagree, it will happen when it's politically expedient, just as we rapidly diverged from the pandemic plans when it was politically expedient.

 

[nlogax]

I fundamentally disagree, it will happen when it's politically expedient, just as we rapidly diverged from the pandemic plans when it was politically expedient.

..again, there's bugger all we can do about it.

We have no say. Admit it.

 

[david1212]

Matt Hancock was on the TV a couple of weeks ago (BBC Breakfast news) and said he thinks that the wearing of masks should become the normal behaviour in some circumstances (and he specifically mentioned public transport). So I'm afraid there certainly are *some* that would like restrictions to continue "ad-infinitum". I really hope that doesn't happen as I really hate masks.

The problem is even if it isn't legally mandated there is still the risk it could carry on if sufficient pressure is applied to make face coverings part of the national rail conditions, for example.

I had missed this .... grrrr.

'... if sufficient pressure is applied to make face coverings part of the national rail conditions ...'
If that happens my use of any public transport will fall to only being as a last resort. Following on there are places and events there I would not go to with a loss of revenue both to rail and the destination e.g. London.

Depends - voluntarily wearing a face covering on public transport whilst unwell becoming "a thing" culturally, but with no obligation to do so, might not be unreasonable. It certainly will catch on with some, regardless of whether its mandated or not.

You've always seen occasional people (particularly East asians) do so for years in/around London.

This is sensible.
Generally if people want to that is their choice.
The key difference with the culture in/from the Far East is pollution where the particles are larger than Covid so masks are more effective.

...
It feels like it. There’s certainly a subset of people who seem to want a “basic zombie existence” where they get up, take the dog for a short rural walk, pick up a coffee from the take-away coffee shop, visit Tesco’s, check the furlough payments have gone in, and repeat the cycle ad-nauseam.

If that is how they want to carry on fine so long as totally their own expense not the state and ultimately Joe and Joanne Public.

If this carries on, more people are going to loose their jobs than already have done, and this may bring some people back to the reality that this is not one long holiday that can go on forever.

Exactly.

 

[Ted633]

Slightly off topic, but those here saying (and I get why) we should all wait until next year to fly abroad need to realise that all the airlines and travel companies are on their knees right now. If there isn't a reasonable trade this summer, there will be mass redundancies (& associated scrapping of aircraft/equipment) and come 2022 there will be far lower capacity available for the demand, which will push prices through the roof.
Maybe a compromise some will accept and that's fair enough, but I doubt the 100,000's in the industry will think the same!

 

[duncanp]

Slightly off topic, but those here saying (and I get why) we should all wait until next year to fly abroad need to realise that all the airlines and travel companies are on their knees right now. If there isn't a reasonable trade this summer, there will be mass redundancies (& associated scrapping of aircraft/equipment) and come 2022 there will be far lower capacity available for the demand, which will push prices through the roof.
Maybe a compromise some will accept and that's fair enough, but I doubt the 100,000's in the industry will think the same!

I would imagine that when international travel resumes, the Foreign Office advice for each country will be based on the infection rate, the vaccination rate, and which variants are circulating in that country.

You are likely to see a version of the normal situation whereby:-

• The FCO advises against all travel
• The FCO advises against all but essential travel
• There is no restriction on travel

Some countries are likely to require proof of vaccination as a condition of entry, others may accept proof of vaccination or a negative COVID test, others may not impose any restrictions at all.

Whether quarantine or testing is required on return may depend on which of the above three categories each country is placed into.

However I do think that once vaccination and testings becomes widespread, an international journey would be no more risky than one within just one country. Why would London to Paris, for example, be any more risky than London to Edinburgh?

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Slightly off topic, but those here saying (and I get why) we should all wait until next year to fly abroad need to realise that all the airlines and travel companies are on their knees right now. If there isn't a reasonable trade this summer, there will be mass redundancies (& associated scrapping of aircraft/equipment) and come 2022 there will be far lower capacity available for the demand, which will push prices through the roof.
Maybe a compromise some will accept and that's fair enough, but I doubt the 100,000's in the industry will think the same!

This is a possibility and maybe the govt needs to extend them some extra cover but better to have Britain we can freely roam about doing what we enjoy and need to do rather than risk a variant which evades the vaccine starting the whole cycle all over again.

My view with airlines is govt should inject capital and take stakes in them and the airports so when travel is restored we the taxpayer can get our money back potentially.

 

[DustyBin]

Slightly off topic, but those here saying (and I get why) we should all wait until next year to fly abroad need to realise that all the airlines and travel companies are on their knees right now. If there isn't a reasonable trade this summer, there will be mass redundancies (& associated scrapping of aircraft/equipment) and come 2022 there will be far lower capacity available for the demand, which will push prices through the roof.
Maybe a compromise some will accept and that's fair enough, but I doubt the 100,000's in the industry will think the same!

This is a good point, some people just don’t realise the damage being done every day. It’s not just airlines, I work for a reasonably large hospitality business and the weekly looses are eye watering. I noticed the other day that Wetherspoons reported a six month loss of £46.2m, that’s over £1.7m per week! I know for a fact that other firms are in a similar or worse position (M&B losses for example are truly eye watering, they were reporting more like £10m per week at one point). These businesses are fighting to survive, make no mistake.

Going back to airlines, I’ve said it before and I’ve seen or heard nothing to change my view on this, I think the government are quite happy to see a permanent reduction in air travel. I just don’t see how encouraging us to jump on a 737 to Alicante fits in with the green agenda.

 

[Richard Scott]

This is a possibility and maybe the govt needs to extend them some extra cover but better to have Britain we can freely roam about doing what we enjoy and need to do rather than risk a variant which evades the vaccine starting the whole cycle all over again.

My view with airlines is govt should inject capital and take stakes in them and the airports so when travel is restored we the taxpayer can get our money back potentially.

But why, variants are just that, it's extremely unlikely a variant will completely evade the vaccine. As for government injecting capital, they're broke. I'm fed up with the governor continually spending my money in the name of this virus. It needs to stop, now!

 

[yorkie]

But why, variants are just that, it's extremely unlikely a variant will completely evade the vaccine.

Virologists say it's effectively impossible; see this study for example..
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/01/210127140137.htm

Summary: A new study suggests that T cells try to fight SARS-CoV-2 by targeting a broad range of sites on the virus -- beyond the key sites on the virus's spike protein. By attacking the virus from many angles, the body has the tools to potentially recognize different SARS-CoV-2 variants.

Keep an eye out for doom mongers who go on about different "strains"; preying on the fact influenza is difficult to get immunity for, due to the existence of multiple strains. Sars-CoV-2 has only one strain; variants of the original wild type virus are not sufficiently different to completely evade the immune response.

Infections will still occur but that's natural, expected and unavoidable; our immune systems will do the job in the overwhelming majority of cases.