South Wales, yes - don't imagine it'll have much impact on the north though as most will see their regional centre as Chester/Liverpool/Manchester.
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can public transport ever recover from COVID-19
- Thread starter Ken H
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South Wales, yes - don't imagine it'll have much impact on the north though as most will see their regional centre as Chester/Liverpool/Manchester.
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Markdvdman
Member
Well North Wales is having 4 regions going into lockdown so that will put the spanner in that! This is idiocy by the Welsh Government - destroying leisure transport, and hence, business! The question is how far back this puts us on the road to revory? 5 years? 10 years?
Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
I don't entirely understand the Welsh obsession with keeping people in their neat little regional boxes. There is almost nothing to be lost by allowing people to travel around between areas of similar case prevalence.
And can you imagine being stuck in Merthyr Tydfil?
It depends on where you class as being back to recovered.
It probably also depends on what happens coming out the other side.
For instance if the airlines are hit hard (I know not an overly big thing for much of Wales) then it could well be that air travel is more expensive. If that's the case then travel within the UK may increase, however even if it doesn't chances are there'll be more travel within the UK by rail as there's less likely to be the air routes.
Either way that could actually increase rail passenger flows on some routes.
Likewise if more people holiday in the UK then that could also increase passenger flows.
WFH will harm rail travel, however most who do it wouldn't be doing so for more than 80% of the time and so the impact will be reduced from the maximum number of jobs which can be done from home. Especially given that not everyone will opt to take advantage of WFH when they can (my whole department would rather be in the office of they can be and I design roads which we've been able to do from home during the hard lockdown).
Others in other companies (who haven't gone back) would like to be back in, as they've identified that there's other relationships which they have which are useful to have but they don't have a reason to call (zoom, teams, etc.) those individuals.
Others have realised, due to being made redundant, that by living a simpler life they can live on a lower income and can still do simple but enjoyable things.
Others have realised that they were wasting a lot of money in travel costs and so like working from home, however they may also realise that working locally can get you the best of both worlds. This may result in needing to take a pay cut to do so, however given the time and cost saving from not working a long way from home they could find that they are better off than they were before.
Things are going to changes and some of them will negatively impact on rail travel, however other changes will positively impact on rail travel.
Overall, once there's almost no restrictions, chances are is likely to be 3 - 5 years before we're close to or at 2019 passenger miles traveled. That's likely to still be another free years to reach actual journey numbers, it's just that there's likely to be less shorter travel and more longer travel.
As an example there's likely to be less within M25 rail travel due to reduced commuting, however there could be more miles travel but less frequently from (say) Derbyshire to London to go into the office for 3 days every few weeks.
Chances are some routes (such as some within the SWR network) may take 10 - 15 years to recover to 2019 numbers and the peaks may even take longer than that to recover. However peak time trains with 50% now people than seats on then probably isn't a great idea.
Of course the other side of the coin is that if we're traveling less then rail may work out well for many due to the high upfront cost of car ownership (especially among those with limited no claims bonuses, were insurance can be over £1,000).
Driving 30 miles a day to get to and from work is about 7,000 miles a year. If you reduce that to 4,000 miles (3/5 days in the office) then the cost per mile of the car goes up significantly. That's fine if you use that car a lot on none work days, however if it isn't and it's now going to be say idle or very lightly used for 3 or 4 days a week some might consider is it needed. Especially if there's more than one car in the household.
It's unlikely that all those miles would be replaced by rail travel, however if everyone increased their rail miles by under 200 miles a year we'd increase by 15% the numbers of miles traveled by rail.
Some would do that easily, with a single trip to see friends or family. Others might go for more day trips by train a few times a year to achieve this. Others might not increase their use of trail at all and their miles are undertaken by others.
Now that 15% isn't likely to be increasing rail travel above the 2019 figures, but rather making so that (say) in 2022 rail use isn't as low as it otherwise would be.
As such, and especially given that we need to reduce our carbon emissions and public transport can a that very well, public transport will recover in time, however just don't expect it in 2023 to be the same as 2019.
Scotrail314209
Established Member
Up in Strathclyde, Public Transport usage at weekends seems to be back to near enough the way it was Pre - COVID. Trains into Glasgow Central are now substantially busier than they were a few weeks back.
On weekdays, peak time trains are still quiet but are still slightly busy. Much better than the full and standing on most routes out of Glasgow Central during the evening.
On weekdays, peak time trains are still quiet but are still slightly busy. Much better than the full and standing on most routes out of Glasgow Central during the evening.
Perhaps now might be an opportunity to look at which stations have potential to generate a good level of all day patronage, but which are hampered by passenger unfriendly services.
As an example, it must surely be time to provide a half hourly service between Leeds and Normanton. Hallam line passenger numbers have already recovered well and Normanton is the only large settlement on the route stuck at hourly. It's time that sea-change in service provision was made to bolster the recovery.
As an example, it must surely be time to provide a half hourly service between Leeds and Normanton. Hallam line passenger numbers have already recovered well and Normanton is the only large settlement on the route stuck at hourly. It's time that sea-change in service provision was made to bolster the recovery.
telstarbox
Established Member
This week's graph. Hovering about 40% compared to this time last year.
Which isn't bad given that there's still a lot of restrictions and WFH which wouldn't be the case if the virus was no longer of such concern to do many people.
It would be interesting if there was a by TOC version of this, as I'd expect that some (primarily London commuter trains) which would be lower than this, whilst others wouldn't be as low.
theironroad
Established Member
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Looks like a few % decline from above to below 40 which I assume is the retreat to WFH if you can recently.
You are almost certainly correct about some being lower than others and some not so low. On the Overground , specifically the North London line and Gospel oak to Barking , I would be surprised if we weren't back to normal. Obviously I don't see every train every day , but I'm driving absolutely packed to the rafter's train's at different times and day's . Can barely get passenger's on sometimes and at the bigger station's ( Highbury , Willesden ) I'm sometimes picking up a good 100 + passenger's at each.
Noticed a reduction in use again, no doubt in line with the measures up North. Some train I've been on were over 50% a few weeks ago, now returning to the lull of June time.
However, chatting to some I've noticed a few people who've been WFH deliberately trying to get out and about as they're sick of it.. Which is why I don't buy the whole WFH is the new normal. The sooner the rail industry can provide an appropriate ticketing option for the recovery, the better.
However, chatting to some I've noticed a few people who've been WFH deliberately trying to get out and about as they're sick of it.. Which is why I don't buy the whole WFH is the new normal. The sooner the rail industry can provide an appropriate ticketing option for the recovery, the better.
Jozhua
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I'll put across this theory:
Buses & trams take the majority of carless commuting during the week, the railways serve as a way of covering longer distances for leasure at the weekend, or business trips. Friday rush is always noticeably busier, as people go to visit friends/family at the weekends.
The fact that the railways are running at almost 50% of pre-covid levels, when they're supposed to have a quarter capacity due to social distancing is pretty impressive really. Especially considering all the efforts made to reduce usage. Of course, the tories will miss this when they make their cuts lol.
Metrolink is standing room only at certain times, buses are often running "full" in Manchester.
The car-less make up a significant number of people and claiming to be fighting climate change, while making life worse for this group would be incredibly silly. At least Boris has some sense in regards to cycling, but wether any money to put the suggestions in to place ever actually materialises, I'll be very suprised.
bramling
Veteran Member
I don't entirely understand the Welsh obsession with keeping people in their neat little regional boxes. There is almost nothing to be lost by allowing people to travel around between areas of similar case prevalence.
And can you imagine being stuck in Merthyr Tydfil?
It does seem like another case of mission creep. They started with Caerphilly, then within a short space of time they’ve ended up with the whole of urban South Wales. Evidently they can’t find a way of backing out.
Still, I had the most luxurious journey east along the M4 on Tuesday evening. I did not see a single other car on my side from Swansea all the way to Newport, only lorries. Not so good for business, we were in a restaurant in Pembrokeshire and they’d gone from doing reasonably well to being pretty much empty, which they blamed on the lockdowns. Likewise the staff at the hotel I was in were despairing about how they will get through 8 months.
Indeed, WFH is (for most people) only likely to be a part time activity, maybe a few days a week, rather than something that they do all the time.
If you can have a bit of a lie in, be back from work early and reduced costs for 2 days a week or one week out of 4 then that's going to feel like it's brought a lot of the benefits without the loss of the working in the office environment.
It would likely be enough to reduce transport congestion for everyone, so that commuting was nicer when you did have to do it.
Yes there will be some who would WFH all the time, however the risk to business is that they could be more inclined to try to set up their own business as they lose their tie to the company. Even if they don't, they are more likely to move jobs, especially if there's one which allows them to also WFH but pays more/is easier to get to, as there's no longer the thought "if I leave I leave my team a person down" as their team no longer matters so much.
squizzler
Established Member
This is a good illustration of how activity may have become more dispersed since the virus. Such a trend would increase the need for new lines to link medium sized places to each other, rather than simply to London or other big regional centre. We also need to start building orbitals as well as radial routes. I would hazard a guess the business case for East - West Rail, for instance, just got stronger.
We need a new methodology of demand forecasting for new railways as well as for better deployment of services that models the "new normal" situation, and fast. Busses can be redeployed very quickly. Here in Jersey the bus service is entirely radial in nature, and I think now would be an ideal opportunity to add a "cross country" route linking the country ends of these radial routes through the rural parishes.
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telstarbox
Established Member
Please can you sort your apostrophes out
I would not of thought that it was 40% regarding the long distance operators.
I would, given the regional operators !
I have only used LNER recently and they still seem to be quiet.
telstarbox
Established Member
* Not have thought
Yes, given what I've heard about them it doesn't surprise me - I was on GC a few weeks ago and every double seat was occupied !
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Your red pen is out today!!!
Completely different to what I've heard figures wise. Apparently TPE are First Group's busiest TOC.
LNER are doing pretty well. Apart from the slightly tiresome compulsory reservations they are going out of their way to offer a decent service, and all the trains I've been on have looked like they're approaching 50% of normal usage.
The GC train I saw at King's Cross on Wednesday looked pretty deserted by comparison - I considered getting it to avoid the Azuma seats as far as York.
Jamesrob637
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I hate bad grammar too but won't make a song and dance about it on here in case I receive a barrage of abuse!
If the industry can maintain that 40% or thereabouts throughout the current wave, it should go some way towards keeping the hounds of the treasury at bay.
Essentially the railway needs to ignore "essential travel only" messaging being excreted by Gmt departments. Or if compelled to promote it, it should do so so half heartedly as to be barely noticable.
cactustwirly
Established Member
I doubt that, I would have thought SWR and GWR would be busier
I would think that SWR and GWR are hugely affected by the (supposed) collapse in London commuting, SWR in particular as being predominantly commuter focused
SWR will in some areas have also seen noticeable drops due to some of the local 6th form education establishments reducing physical contact time, in one example this results in 1/2 the students being in each week.
Student's may not be a significant number compared to those going into Central London, however that halving from one college could result in circa 2,500 fewer passenger movements each day, scale that up over a year and several colleges and it's millions of movements a year (just that one could be nearly a million movements if the numbers are not that much higher than the 2,500 figure estimated above).
You may doubt it, but it is correct on percentage of use.
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