England's new three-tier lockdown system

Bletchleyite

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This story highlights just how ridiculous this has all become


One lady comments that she will not see her granddaughter, even though they live on opposite sides of the same street, their homes are in different Tiers.

There’s no way I would comply in that situation
That situation arises in all sorts of areas, because in the UK we seem to find it hard to ensure our local authority boundaries actually equate to towns, something other countries seem to manage.

Mind you, any arbitrary limit does that. For instance, there was a street in my hometown on which people on one side got free school travel and people on the other side didn't, despite them using the same train from the same station. This was because you only got it if you were more than 3 miles away as the crow flies.
 
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philosopher

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In what sense has the Scottish government done better? Sturgeon periodically does a hand-wavy grimace thing whenever mental health gets mentioned before making it perfectly clear that while she of course cares deeply about the issue, it's absolutely secondary to her bizarre elimination fantasy and people will just have to suck it up for the moment. The rules have prevented any households meeting up in private residences for a while here, while the stay-at-home advice has been much more heavily-messaged throughout.
Fair enough, as you live in Scotland you clearly know the situation up there better than I will. Living in England I got the impression Nicola Sturgeon was at least giving some consideration to mental well being in her actions, though it may be that she is just good at marketing herself as such.
 

Richard Scott

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In what sense has the Scottish government done better? Sturgeon periodically does a hand-wavy grimace thing whenever mental health gets mentioned before making it perfectly clear that while she of course cares deeply about the issue, it's absolutely secondary to her bizarre elimination fantasy and people will just have to suck it up for the moment. The rules have prevented any households meeting up in private residences for a while here, while the stay-at-home advice has been much more heavily-messaged throughout.
Agree. No way Sturgeon cares about mental well-being, only the power she has. Scotland has more Draconian measures than England, my sister lives there and is totally fed up.
 

Andyh82

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This story highlights just how ridiculous this has all become


One lady comments that she will not see her granddaughter, even though they live on opposite sides of the same street, their homes are in different Tiers.

There’s no way I would comply in that situation
The media have been doing stories like this ever since regional restrictions came in months ago, with reporters being sent to boundary towns. They are obsessed with either geographical or time based boundaries

How come we are Tier 2 and the next street is Tier 1
How come we can go to pubs today but can’t tomorrow
How come we can go to pubs at 9:59 but can’t at 10

This sort of thing just pushes the general thought to the idea that everywhere should be shut all the time
 

yorkie

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This sort of thing just pushes the general thought to the idea that everywhere should be shut all the time
I'm not so sure; the recent article linked to by @Skimpot flyer appears to suggest most people are against the more restrictive elements. It also highlighted how the relevant local authorities just dismiss the issue and assert authoritarianism, which will get more backs up.

I think articles like this are actually making more people see sense
 

Andyh82

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I'm not so sure; the recent article linked to by @Skimpot flyer appears to suggest most people are against the more restrictive elements. It also highlighted how the relevant local authorities just dismiss the issue and assert authoritarianism, which will get more backs up.

I think articles like this are actually making more people see sense
The only other alternative swirling around on the TV News at least, is a full lockdown or more restrictive measures

Until a major political party or devolved government suggests less measures this won’t change
 

Freightmaster

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The only other alternative swirling around on the TV News at least, is a full lockdown or more restrictive measures

Until a major political party or devolved government suggests less measures this won’t change
Unfortunately, this is a classic example of the 'sunk cost fallacy':
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunk_cost#Fallacy_effect
The bygones principle does not accord with real-world behavior. Sunk costs do, in fact, influence people's decisions,[8][14] with people believing that investments (i.e., sunk costs) justify further expenditures.[16] People demonstrate "a greater tendency to continue an endeavor once an investment in money, effort, or time has been made."[17][18] This is the sunk cost fallacy, and such behavior may be described as "throwing good money after bad,"[19][14] while refusing to succumb to what may be described as "cutting one's losses".[14]


A related phenomenon is plan continuation bias,[23][24][25][26][27] also called get-there-itis or press-on-itis, which is an unwise tendency to persist with a plan that is failing.

This is a dangerous hazard for ships' captains or aircraft pilots who may stick to a planned course even when it is leading to fatal disaster and they should abort instead....
In other words, just because something (local lockdowns in this case) isn't having the desired effect
doesn't mean that the answer is to 'double down' and keep doing it more and more in the vain hope
that it must surely work eventually!!


MARK
 
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Peter Sarf

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Unfortunately, the is a classic example of the 'sunk cost fallacy':
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunk_cost#Fallacy_effect

In other words, just because something (local lockdowns in this case) isn't having the desired effect
doesn't mean that the answer is to 'double down' and keep doing it more and more in the vain hope
that it must surely work eventually!!






MARK
Trouble is I am not sure the local lockdowns are not having any effect. I think things would have been a lot worse over the summer without the restrictions then. The three tier system of local lockdowns has got to be better than a blunt instrument for the whole country thus restricting areas that don't need a lock down. We are not looking to get rid of Covid-19 we are just looking to slow it down enough for the NHS to cope. There might be a vaccine ready eventually. More likely Covid-19 will drag on until there are a limited number of people likely to die left. Then we can ease off. The question is what would the costs be of just letting Covid-19 rip through society - I suggest panic.
 

yorkie

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Trouble is I am not sure the local lockdowns are not having any effect. I think things would have been a lot worse over the summer without the restrictions then.
Infections continued to decline throughout the Summer as restrictions were eased, because this is (despite the WHO's claims to the contrary) a seasonal virus, and that's what seasonal viruses do!
The three tier system of local lockdowns has got to be better than a blunt instrument for the whole country thus restricting areas that don't need a lock down.
I agree. But we are going round in circles; this has all been said before.
We are not looking to get rid of Covid-19 we are just looking to slow it down enough for the NHS to cope. There might be a vaccine ready eventually. More likely Covid-19 will drag on until there are a limited number of people likely to die left. Then we can ease off. The question is what would the costs be of just letting Covid-19 rip through society - I suggest panic.
Yes but again we are just going round in circles again, and I don't think the choice is as binary as you suggest, nor do I agree with the "rip through" terminology.
I think the problem is with tier three.

Tier two bans the mixing of households, which whilst I argue is unduly draconian, could probably be said to impede transmission. However, what's the point of tier three if you've already banned households mixing indoors ? It's utterly pointless and just creates economic damage for no gain whatsoever. I would have more sympathy for this system if tier three was deleted altogether.
Yes; the financial packages for Tier 3 should be available for businesses in Tier 2, and all other aspects of Tier 3 should be abolished.

Another problem with Tier 3, is that although the Government does not mandate the closing of gyms and leisure centres, it does grant the powers to local authorities to close them. I find that absolutely appalling, unacceptable and it is a cause of worry to many people.

I cannot stress how furious I am with the pro-lockdown media, individuals and Government over this. If anyone who supports draconian restrictions wants an argument, I'll give them an argument.
 

yorksrob

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Trouble is I am not sure the local lockdowns are not having any effect. I think things would have been a lot worse over the summer without the restrictions then. The three tier system of local lockdowns has got to be better than a blunt instrument for the whole country thus restricting areas that don't need a lock down. We are not looking to get rid of Covid-19 we are just looking to slow it down enough for the NHS to cope. There might be a vaccine ready eventually. More likely Covid-19 will drag on until there are a limited number of people likely to die left. Then we can ease off. The question is what would the costs be of just letting Covid-19 rip through society - I suggest panic.
I think the problem is with tier three.

Tier two bans the mixing of households, which whilst I argue is unduly draconian, could probably be said to impede transmission. However, what's the point of tier three if you've already banned households mixing indoors ? It's utterly pointless and just creates economic damage for no gain whatsoever. I would have more sympathy for this system if tier three was deleted altogether.
 

david1212

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Ireland, France, Germany etc. are also doing their own thing. Scotland and Wales are countries in their own right. If they merely duplicate what England is doing, then there is no reason for separate governments. Ireland, France, Germany, Scotland, Wales and England are all European countries with separate governments doing their own thing.
England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are, supposedly, the United Kingdom though.

-------------------

As we all know, Lancashire has agreed a government settlement to go to Tier 3 but Greater Manchester has not. Manchester has a different demographic and economy, partly because several Manchester towns run into each other while most Lancashire towns are separated by rural areas. More hospitality and tourism could be affected in Manchester. I would not be surprised if the settlement offered to Manchester failed to reflect this.

I shall go further. Blackpool Council leader Lynn Williams is still inviting people to travel there and visit subject to us behaving safely.


From the above link I am quoting the following:-

"But in a press conference this afternoon, Councillor Lynn Williams, leader of Blackpool Council, said there is no "mandatory ban on travel" in and out of Lancashire.

In regards to Blackpool, Coun Williams said the seaside resort remains open - but "safely" so.

"Anyone in Lancashire can travel countywide," Coun Williams said.

"And if coming from out the area it is advisory not to."

When pressed on people visiting Blackpool, Coun Williams said there are no travel restrictions and that the guidance is "only advisory".

She said: "Our key resorts, the Pleasure Beach for example, will remain open. Our businesses have done an awful lot of work to make sure they are Covid-safe.

"Blackpool remains safely open. Not bars and pubs [that don't serve food], but in terms of everything else. People are able to come but will have to ensure that they abide by the measures our public health colleagues have stated and other restrictions, and travel within their own family, household unit."

Dr Sakthi Karunanithi, director of public health for Lancashire County Council, said the travel rules from Government is "guidance", rather than law."
I really do feel for all in Blackpool who in some way are connected with hospitality and tourism and were relying on the next two weeks of school half-terms for a boost in income to help through the winter. Also all who had planned a day trip or booked short break away from from work, school etc.

However given the statement
'The only reason people should travel to or from a Tier 3 area is for work, education, caring responsibilities, or to travel through as part of a longer journey'
for Councillor Lynn Williams to be effectively be saying just ignore any messages about travel restrictions because they are only advisory really is wrong.
 
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Richard Scott

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I cannot stress how furious I am with the pro-lockdown media, individuals and Government over this. If anyone who supports draconian restrictions wants an argument, I'll give them an argument.
Perhaps you can have an argument with Welsh Assembly on my behalf as rumours circulating of 17 day period of tighter measures for whole of Wales despite many areas having low rates so not like England system, we all have to suffer (maybe needs a new thread? If I'd looked further than end of my nose would've seen someone already done that!!!). I've had enough and written (again) to Welsh Assembly and local MP. Won't make any difference but makes me feel better and doubt they care about my lost vote but if enough people bother.....
 

317 forever

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England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are, supposedly, the United Kingdom though.

-------------------



I really do feel for all in Blackpool who in some way are connected with hospitality and tourism and were relying on the next two weeks of school half-terms for a boost in income to help through the winter. Also all who had planned a day trip or booked short break away from from work, school etc.

However given the statement
'The only reason people should travel to or from a Tier 3 area is for work, education, caring responsibilities, or to travel through as part of a longer journey'
for Councillor Lynn Williams to be effectively be saying just ignore any messages about travel restrictions because they are only advisory really is wrong.
It may be wrong morally but not in terms of travel instructions. To keep it in proportion, it is not mandatory that people avoid travelling to such areas unless we have the virus etc (although there is a case against going for the time being).

The web page https://www.gov.uk/guidance/local-covid-alert-level-very-high#travel includes the following 2 sentences:

We are advising people not to travel into or out of an area if it has been categorised as a very high alert level area.
You must not travel if you are experiencing any coronavirus symptoms, are self-isolating as a result of coronavirus symptoms, are sharing a household or support bubble with somebody with symptoms, or have been told to self-isolate after being contacted by NHS Test and Trace.
 

yorkie

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However given the statement
'The only reason people should travel to or from a Tier 3 area is for work, education, caring responsibilities, or to travel through as part of a longer journey'
for Councillor Lynn Williams to be effectively be saying just ignore any messages about travel restrictions because they are only advisory really is wrong.
I'll tell you what's wrong: it's wrong for people to try to destroy livelihoods in the manner that is being done; it is wrong to try to tell people they shouldn't be exercising their legal right to make journeys lawfully.
 

takno

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It may be wrong morally but not in terms of travel instructions. To keep it in proportion, it is not mandatory that people avoid travelling to such areas unless we have the virus etc (although there is a case against going for the time being).

The web page https://www.gov.uk/guidance/local-covid-alert-level-very-high#travel includes the following 2 sentences:
The councils made it pretty clear that they signed up to the legal obligations because a financial gun was held to their heads, and that's as far as it goes. Councillors aren't government employees, and are under no obligation to tell people they believe in some additional arbitrary government guidelines that they don't believe in and haven't signed up for.
 

DelayRepay

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Isn't the restriction on car boot sales an odd thing? Car boot sales take place out doors, typically once a week, and most of them don't happen during the winter.

It is almost as if Lancashire were pressured into picking an additional restriction from the 'menu' and picked this as the one they thought would have least impact on anything.
 

Bletchleyite

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Isn't the restriction on car boot sales an odd thing? Car boot sales take place out doors, typically once a week, and most of them don't happen during the winter.
I suppose people do crowd round the stalls.

It is almost as if Lancashire were pressured into picking an additional restriction from the 'menu' and picked this as the one they thought would have least impact on anything.
That's perhaps more likely - "for tier 3 you must pick any 4 of these additional measures" or something.
 

Richard Scott

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I suppose people do crowd round the stalls.



That's perhaps more likely - "for tier 3 you must pick any 4 of these additional measures" or something.
Now it's a multiple choice game, really, I hope this is said in jest? If that is the case then any scientific justification is totally out of the window. I get more fearful of the future every day if this is what it's all coming to.
 

Yew

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Now it's a multiple choice game, really, I hope this is said in jest? If that is the case then any scientific justification is totally out of the window. I get more fearful of the future every day if this is what it's all coming to.
I'm not sure about if it was on here; but I did hear somewhere that the issue with the classic "trolley problem" is that regardless of the consequences, politicians will always pull the lever, as they can't be seen to do nothing.
 

Peter Sarf

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Infections continued to decline throughout the Summer as restrictions were eased, because this is (despite the WHO's claims to the contrary) a seasonal virus, and that's what seasonal viruses do!
I think you are right about the summer. It is my assumption that the virus is going to prevail during the winter. If the measures taken during the Spring-Summer were necessary then we are in for an extremely bad time this winter. I am really dreading it.

I wish there was more that could be done (like masks) to protect the NHS without really screwing everyone's life up.

Now it's a multiple choice game, really, I hope this is said in jest? If that is the case then any scientific justification is totally out of the window. I get more fearful of the future every day if this is what it's all coming to.
Its probably a way of taking a lot away and then making a token gesture for appeasement.
 

Bletchleyite

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I wish there was more that could be done (like masks) to protect the NHS without really screwing everyone's life up.
While that's more one for that thread, N95 masks (rather than bits of thin fabric) may well achieve that, as unlike said bits of old teatowel they are actually designed to do that. Perhaps we should be manufacturing and distributing them now?
 

Richard Scott

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While that's more one for that thread, N95 masks (rather than bits of thin fabric) may well achieve that, as unlike said bits of old teatowel they are actually designed to do that. Perhaps we should be manufacturing and distributing them now?
Only any good if used correctly, in work we have to wear them for walking around then can take them off when in the room. Likely to cause more harm than good. We seem to think mask is knight in shining armour, I think it's more of an enemy decoy.
 

Yew

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Only any good if used correctly, in work we have to wear them for walking around then can take them off when in the room. Likely to cause more harm than good. We seem to think mask is knight in shining armour, I think it's more of an enemy decoy.
Indeed, I think a lot of this that they've became a symbol of the crisis, rather than an evidence-based public health measure.
 

Peter Mugridge

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Now it's a multiple choice game, really, I hope this is said in jest? If that is the case then any scientific justification is totally out of the window. I get more fearful of the future every day if this is what it's all coming to.
With Johnson, Drakeford and Sturgeon battling it out I can just imagine it:

Two tiers
up on top!
Look, you.
I can do it, too.
Look!
See!
I can do three!
Three . ..
Three . . .
I see, I see...
You can do three
but I can do more.
You have three
but I have four
Look! See, now.
I can hop
with four tiers
up on top.
And I can hop
up on a tree
with four tiers
up on me.
See here, you two.
I can get five
on top.
Can you?

etc etc


More seriously, it does now look very much as if all these different schemes and plans and strategies are very much a huge game of national one-upmanship and that is not good at all for anyone or for any part of the country.

The politicians would do well to remember what happened at the end of the story I have just used to illustrate the way they seem to be behaving with all this...
 

DustyBin

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With Johnson, Drakeford and Sturgeon battling it out I can just imagine it:

Two tiers
up on top!
Look, you.
I can do it, too.
Look!
See!
I can do three!
Three . ..
Three . . .
I see, I see...
You can do three
but I can do more.
You have three
but I have four
Look! See, now.
I can hop
with four tiers
up on top.
And I can hop
up on a tree
with four tiers
up on me.
See here, you two.
I can get five
on top.
Can you?

etc etc


More seriously, it does now look very much as if all these different schemes and plans and strategies are very much a huge game of national one-upmanship and that is not good at all for anyone or for any part of the country.

The politicians would do well to remember what happened at the end of the story I have just used to illustrate the way they seem to be behaving with all this...
The irony is that the three tier system was designed to get away from variable and confusing local restrictions! You couldn't make it up....
 

Darandio

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So no deal has been reached in the Greater Manchester saga and Boris is going to go ahead with tier 3 as promised, but apparently it won't be immediately because they need time to 'adjust'.

Do they still think people are falling for this garbage? They've been arguing for what seems to be an eternity with party politics and what money should be involved, now they are going to go to tier 3 at a later date. Surely if tier 3 was do desperately needed then it was needed last week, not after a few days of bickering and a few days to get used to the idea.

All it does is make the people involved have no interest in complying. They talk about protecting the people but never seem in no hurry to protect them so why the hell should the people give a stuff?
 

Howardh

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So no deal has been reached in the Greater Manchester saga and Boris is going to go ahead with tier 3 as promised, but apparently it won't be immediately because they need time to 'adjust'.

Do they still think people are falling for this garbage? They've been arguing for what seems to be an eternity with party politics and what money should be involved, now they are going to go to tier 3 at a later date. Surely if tier 3 was do desperately needed then it was needed last week, not after a few days of bickering and a few days to get used to the idea.

All it does is make the people involved have no interest in complying. They talk about protecting the people but never seem in no hurry to protect them so why the hell should the people give a stuff?
Just prolonging the agony then. If T3 comes, say, at the weekend, what do they do if the cases and hospital admissions falls significantly before then?
 

Scotrail12

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More seriously, it does now look very much as if all these different schemes and plans and strategies are very much a huge game of national one-upmanship and that is not good at all for anyone or for any part of the country.

The politicians would do well to remember what happened at the end of the story I have just used to illustrate the way they seem to be behaving with all this...
This will get me hung in Scotland but I think this shows why we either need to be fully independent or ditch devolution altogether. This halfway house thing that they have just now only creates division among the population.
 

Bletchleyite

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This will get me hung in Scotland but I think this shows why we either need to be fully independent or ditch devolution altogether. This halfway house thing that they have just now only creates division among the population.
Wouldn't worry, you will be within 10 years. Sturgeon is only getting more popular all the time.
 

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