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From Monday 19th July - Government has laid Regulations revoking (most) restrictions

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DustyBin

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Because we don't get back to normal by wishing it to be the case. Deaths are low but they're doubling every couple of weeks and will almost certainly hit 100 per day in the next week or so. Of course that trend will stop at some point but no one really knows when. We can't just wish these realities away by arbitrarily declaring 'freedom day'. We can hardly 'get on with life with covid in the background' when hospitals are cancelling operations and reconfiguring ICUs for the increasing numbers of Covid patients.

The paradox is that getting back to normal now depends on people acting as if it might not. The more cautious we are now, the sooner the exit wave will dissipate and the earlier things will get back to normal.

At this stage we really need to know whether these people died “with” or “from” Covid. I’ve always maintained that this is an important distinction but it is now more so than ever. With an average of 1.5k deaths everyday in the UK the number of people dying “with” Covid is inevitably going to increase as we enter the endemic stage.
 
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Huntergreed

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At this stage we really need to know whether these people died “with” or “from” Covid. I’ve always maintained that this is an important distinction but it is now more so than ever. With an average of 1.5k deaths everyday in the UK the number of people dying “with” Covid is inevitably going to increase as we enter the endemic stage.
The current metric is “within 28 days of a positive test”, so in other words, “with at some point in the last 4 weeks”

I would argue that the metric should’ve been exclusively “from” from the very beginning, but that wouldn’t look as bad or scary, would it?
 

MikeWM

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For people who don't look look and sound British it's been that way for years already.

I don't think the solution to something bad happening to one group in society (and yes, I've always fundamentally opposed things such as the 'hostile environment') is to extend and expand that to all other groups in society.
 

DustyBin

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Yes, agree with what you’ve put there. This is the next step in the state sponsored bullying that started with demanding care workers get vaccinated.

For those saying ‘it won’t affect me’, well maybe it won’t this time around, but ‘thin end of the wedge’ describes it perfectly.

I’ve had both jabs, but find the notion of a two tier society absolutely abhorrent.

I totally agree with you and @MikeWM. This is exactly the kind of thing many of us have feared for months. I’m sure the usual suspects will see no problem with it and when the mission creeps a little further that will be ok too, and so on. The question is where will it end? This is an absolutely fundamental shift in how our society works, a shift nobody voted for or had a say in. How anybody can fail to see the problem with that is beyond me.
 

stevetay3

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The idea that there is a 'door' we go through and things a suddenly back to normal is fundamentally misplaced. In reality it's a gradual reduction in restrictions as the risks associated with Covid reduce. It's more like walking down a mountain - we're getting closer to the end of the journey but you can't just decide the trek is over - it's over when it's over.


Because we don't get back to normal by wishing it to be the case. Deaths are low but they're doubling every couple of weeks and will almost certainly hit 100 per day in the next week or so. Of course that trend will stop at some point but no one really knows when. We can't just wish these realities away by arbitrarily declaring 'freedom day'. We can hardly 'get on with life with covid in the background' when hospitals are cancelling operations and reconfiguring ICUs for the increasing numbers of Covid patients.

The paradox is that getting back to normal now depends on people acting as if it might not. The more cautious we are now, the sooner the exit wave will dissipate and the earlier things will get back to normal.
The idea that there is a 'door' we go through and things a suddenly back to normal is fundamentally misplaced. In reality it's a gradual reduction in restrictions as the risks associated with Covid reduce. It's more like walking down a mountain - we're getting closer to the end of the journey but you can't just decide the trek is over - it's over when it's over.


Because we don't get back to normal by wishing it to be the case. Deaths are low but they're doubling every couple of weeks and will almost certainly hit 100 per day in the next week or so. Of course that trend will stop at some point but no one really knows when. We can't just wish these realities away by arbitrarily declaring 'freedom day'. We can hardly 'get on with life with covid in the background' when hospitals are cancelling operations and reconfiguring ICUs for the increasing numbers of Covid patients.

The paradox is that getting back to normal now depends on people acting as if it might not. The more cautious we are now, the sooner the exit wave will dissipate and the earlier things will get back to normal.
So we just carry on hiding for ever do we, it’s not going away any time soon we have to live with it as we do with flu and other illnesses. You want to bankrupt country do you 100 deaths per day now is far better than 6 months ago when it could be as high as 1200 Come September when everybody is vaccinated no one will catch it or die
 

XAM2175

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I don't think the solution to something bad happening to one group in society (and yes, I've always fundamentally opposed things such as the 'hostile environment') is to extend and expand that to all other groups in society.
Of course. I make the point lest it be forgotten that Britain's record on this point is not unblemished, even in modern times.
 

brad465

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Now there's an article on this revelation, the very angry reaction from the Night Time industries' association to this announcement:


Full vaccination will be a condition of entry to nightclubs and other venues where large crowds gather from September, the government says.

The latest figures show 35% of 18-30 year olds have still not had both jabs.

Currently nightclubs and other crowded venues are only encouraged to ask revellers to show proof of vaccination, a negative test result or immunity.

But Boris Johnson said he was concerned by the "continuing risk" of transmission posed by nightclubs.

The announcement came on the day nightclubs were allowed to reopen after almost 18 months of closure.

The Prime Minister told a press conference on Monday: "I don't want to have to close nightclubs again as they have elsewhere. But it does mean nightclubs need to do the socially responsible thing.

"As we said last week, we do reserve the right to mandate certification at any point if it's necessary to reduce transmission.

"And I should serve notice now that by the end of September, when all over 18s have had their chance to be double jabbed we're planning to make full vaccination the condition of entry to nightclubs and other venues where large crowds gather."

Mr Johnson added he wanted people to be able to take back their freedoms, but to do this "we must remain cautious".

Many clubs have shut down during the pandemic and the industry reacted angrily to the prime minister's announcement.

"So, 'freedom day' for nightclubs lasted around 17 hours then," said Michael Kill, boss of the Night Time Industries Association.

"Leaving aside the fact that this is yet another chaotic U-turn that will leave nightclubs who have been planning for reopening for months will now have to make more changes to the way they operate - this is still a bad idea.

"80% of nightclubs have said they do not want to implement Covid passports, worrying about difficulties with enforcing the system and a reduction in spontaneous consumers, as well as being put at a competitive disadvantage with pubs and bars that aren't subject to the same restrictions and yet provide similar environments."


What also annoys me about this is the statement that 35% of 18-30 years still haven't had both jabs. Being 25 I've had my first and have booked my second for early August, so it's happening, but they're including single jabbed people as if they've not had any yet and are a problem. I'd like to know how many haven't had one full stop, which I suspect will be contrastingly lower.

80% of nightclubs against this move is a strong figure, our best hope is their resistance is strong enough to either get the measure dropped before introduced, or fail to have an effect so it later gets dropped, akin to other countries trying passports but giving up on them.
 

Bayum

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Now there's an article on this revelation, the very angry reaction from the Night Time industries' association to this announcement:





What also annoys me about this is the statement that 35% of 18-30 years still haven't had both jabs. Being 25 I've had my first and have booked my second for early August, so it's happening, but they're including single jabbed people as if they've not had any yet and are a problem. I'd like to know how many haven't had one full stop, which I suspect will be contrastingly lower.

80% of nightclubs against this move is a strong figure, our best hope is their resistance is strong enough to either get the measure dropped before introduced, or fail to have an effect so it later gets dropped, akin to other countries trying passports but giving up on them.
Don’t forget, it’s a threat. Not guaranteed yet.
 

quantinghome

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So we just carry on hiding for ever do we, it’s not going away any time soon we have to live with it as we do with flu and other illnesses. You want to bankrupt country do you 100 deaths per day now is far better than 6 months ago when it could be as high as 1200 Come September when everybody is vaccinated no one will catch it or die
Oh please. Get off your high horse and stop putting words into my mouth.

It was just announced that 60% of covid hospitalisations are double-vaccinated. Vaccinations work. But they don't provide 100% immunity. Neither you, nor I, nor anyone else knows what the outcome of the PM's gamble is going to be. It could turn out 'OK' with a peak of 100 deaths a day and 'only' a few thousand deaths; or it could be very much worse. We just don't know. Hence why it's such a colossal gamble.
 

stevetay3

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Vaccine passports for nightclubs, What next Pubs Stadiums, Shops or is Boris just ranting because he has been forced to.isolate like the rest of us have to because his pilot scheme did not wash with the people. Would have been Barnard Castle all over again had he refused to, the first wise move he has made in a long time.

Oh please. Get off your high horse and stop putting words into my mouth.

It was just announced that 60% of covid hospitalisations are double-vaccinated. Vaccinations work. But they don't provide 100% immunity. Neither you, nor I, nor anyone else knows what the outcome of the PM's gamble is going to be. It could turn out 'OK' with a peak of 100 deaths a day and 'only' a few thousand deaths; or it could be very much worse. We just don't know. Hence why it's such a colossal gamble.
Does any jab provide 100% immunity .
 

MikeWM

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Two gems from today's conference from our wonderful PM Johnson from https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pm-statement-at-coronavirus-press-conference-19-july-2021

(about being pinged by T&T) 'And even if they have been vaccinated there is a significant risk that they can still pass the disease on.'

(about young people being vaccinated) 'And so I would remind everybody that some of life’s most important pleasures and opportunities are likely to be increasingly dependent on vaccination... As we said last week, we reserve the right to mandate certification at any point, if it is necessary to reduce transmission. And I should serve notice now that by the end of September ... we are planning to make full vaccination the condition of entry to nightclubs and other venues where large crowds gather. Proof of a negative test will no longer be sufficient.

Yes, they make perfect sense together :rolleyes:

Oh, and this

'Let me stress - we want people to be able to take back their freedoms as they can today.'

By coerced medical treatment and the introduction of a 'papers please' society? Not a definition of 'freedoms' I recognise, or indeed most people would have done 19 months ago when they voted this wretched government into power.
 

yorksrob

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Oh please. Get off your high horse and stop putting words into my mouth.

It was just announced that 60% of covid hospitalisations are double-vaccinated. Vaccinations work. But they don't provide 100% immunity. Neither you, nor I, nor anyone else knows what the outcome of the PM's gamble is going to be. It could turn out 'OK' with a peak of 100 deaths a day and 'only' a few thousand deaths; or it could be very much worse. We just don't know. Hence why it's such a colossal gamble.

The term "colossal gamble" suggests that there was an alternative path.

Frankly, I don't think there is one (I don't count keeping a few marginal measures such as face coverings for a bit longer as an alternative likely to make a difference to outcomes) so it is what it is.
 

eastdyke

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Two gems from today's conference from our wonderful PM Johnson from https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pm-statement-at-coronavirus-press-conference-19-july-2021

Yes, they make perfect sense together :rolleyes:

Oh, and this

By coerced medical treatment and the introduction of a 'papers please' society? Not a definition of 'freedoms' I recognise, or indeed most people would have done 19 months ago when they voted this wretched government into power.
'They (he) must think that everybody is really dumb to be shooting those lines on the same page.

As to 'this wretched government' it could have been worse under another lot!
This is for another thread but I would stongly campaign for 'none of the above' to be added as a choice to all ballot papers.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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So we just carry on hiding for ever do we, it’s not going away any time soon we have to live with it as we do with flu and other illnesses. You want to bankrupt country do you 100 deaths per day now is far better than 6 months ago when it could be as high as 1200 Come September when everybody is vaccinated no one will catch it or die
Careful people will still die from Covid as its pretty clear we aren't going to get everyone vaccinated hence the start of veiled threats at todays briefing and the changes for large crowded settings from September. So the next few weeks will severely test whether the level of vaccinations we have achieved is sufficient to contain hospitalisation and mortality rates. Initial observations says it is extremely promising but case rates need to plateau out which they might just be doing over last few days to ensure hospitalisations rates don't get above 10% of bed occupancy at about 4% in England currently.
 

HSTEd

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Just wait until these socialisation permits are proposed as a method to stop "scroungers" on benefits drinking their benefits in pubs and nightclubs instead of spending it on gruel etc etc etc
 

MikeWM

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As to 'this wretched government' it could have been worse under another lot!

As someone who was rather keen on a Labour win in 2017 and 2019 - well, yes, you're probably right.

Whatever else he would have done - lockdown would probably have been worse and/or gone on for longer - I don't think Corbyn would have introduced domestic vaccine passports though. (I didn't think Johnson would either, but then Johnson isn't exactly known for sticking to his principles).
 

brad465

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We know illegal raves were a big thing last year during restrictions, if they take off again I expect they will render the policy untenable, in the same way underground pubs/drinking lots helped bring an end to prohibition in the US in the 30s.
 

eastdyke

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Careful people will still die from with Covid as its pretty clear we aren't going to get everyone vaccinated hence the start of veiled threats at todays briefing and the changes for large crowded settings from September. So the next few weeks will severely test whether the level of vaccinations we have achieved is sufficient to contain hospitalisation and mortality rates. Initial observations says it is extremely promising but case rates need to plateau out which they might just be doing over last few days to ensure hospitalisations rates don't get above 10% of bed occupancy at about 4% in England currently.
From my quote upthread:
Sir Patrick Vallance says 60% of those admitted to hospital have been fully vaccinated but he stresses this is "not surprising" as most people have now been vaccinated.
It is very clear that 'immunisation' does not eliminate disease severe enough for hospitalisation. As others have stated above we really do need to start looking at figures with covid as the true cause of death to be at all confident about anything at all.
 

MikeWM

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Just wait until these socialisation permits are proposed as a method to stop "scroungers" on benefits drinking their benefits in pubs and nightclubs instead of spending it on gruel etc etc etc

And why bother with sugar or salt taxes? The government can just set a limit for each of us, and we can scan our 'health passport' when we go to the supermarket. Already used your ration for the week - well, we can't have you buying that can we, it would put pressure on the NHS.

Scan it before you're allowed in a pub. Already been in two pubs this week? Clearly we can't let you in another - the NHS you know.

Or scan it before you get on a train. Have you used up your carbon allowance for the month - well, no train for you then. Got to save the planet you know.

Or scan it before you're allowed to use the internet - we want the internet to be 'safe' don't we, and the levels of current abuse from people posting anonymously can't be allowed to continue, so maybe that will help.

This entirely predictable 'feature creep' is precisely why I so strongly resisted Blair's ID cards. The prison that can trivially be constructed by the state over the individual once such things are normalised is truly horrifying.
 

WelshBluebird

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Once again here we go with the hyperbole and exaggeration, and statements that literally have nothing to do with topic being discussed.
 

DustyBin

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Once again here we go with the hyperbole and exaggeration, and statements that literally have nothing to do with topic being discussed.

It has everything to do with the topic being discussed as these restrictions look increasingly like the precursor to something more far reaching. The line between conspiracy theory and reality looks somewhat blurred at present, and I’d rather be criticised or ridiculed even for daring to look past the end of my nose than sleepwalk into a future nobody voted for.
 

duncanp

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And why bother with sugar or salt taxes? The government can just set a limit for each of us, and we can scan our 'health passport' when we go to the supermarket. Already used your ration for the week - well, we can't have you buying that can we, it would put pressure on the NHS.

Scan it before you're allowed in a pub. Already been in two pubs this week? Clearly we can't let you in another - the NHS you know.

Or scan it before you get on a train. Have you used up your carbon allowance for the month - well, no train for you then. Got to save the planet you know.

Or scan it before you're allowed to use the internet - we want the internet to be 'safe' don't we, and the levels of current abuse from people posting anonymously can't be allowed to continue, so maybe that will help.

This entirely predictable 'feature creep' is precisely why I so strongly resisted Blair's ID cards. The prison that can trivially be constructed by the state over the individual once such things are normalised is truly horrifying.

As I said a few weeks ago, the passport could be scanned every time you buy a drink in the pub, with the alcohol units for each drink calculated and recorded.

Once you have reached your regulation 14 units for the week, then it's orange juice for you matey until next Friday night.
 

WelshBluebird

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It has everything to do with the topic being discussed as these restrictions look increasingly like the precursor to something more far reaching. The line between conspiracy theory and reality looks somewhat blurred at present, and I’d rather be criticised or ridiculed even for daring to look past the end of my nose than sleepwalk into a future nobody voted for.
I can guarantee you that the current government is not going to bring in a rule that will only let you have 14 units in a week as someone else has just suggested. You know as well as I do that just isn't going to happen so to discuss it like it may happen is utterly pointless and distracting from the real issues.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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It has everything to do with the topic being discussed as these restrictions look increasingly like the precursor to something more far reaching. The line between conspiracy theory and reality looks somewhat blurred at present, and I’d rather be criticised or ridiculed even for daring to look past the end of my nose than sleepwalk into a future nobody voted for.
Maybe but with 1st dose vaccinations dropping considerably over the last couple of weeks maybe a veiled threat for vaccination passports in a setting that younger people will gravitate to may give the vaccination levels a boost. Why else would they hold back for another two months as the highest risk is now not in two months time even with current reduced vaccine uptake in 18-30 year old group.

Mind you many are naturally acquiring some level of immunity just by catching it.
 

Bertie the bus

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Deaths are low but they're doubling every couple of weeks and will almost certainly hit 100 per day in the next week or so.
You do like to exaggerate. You say deaths are doubling every 2 weeks, which they are, and then go on to say they will be above 100 per day in 1 week or so. Deaths are currently at 30 per day so presumably in your mind about 3 or 4 weeks is covered by “or so”.
 

bramling

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Getting this statement to be widely believed is the greatest trick the Tories ever pulled. It has no basis in reality.

It’s perhaps fair to say we don’t really know what Labour would have done, however certainly from what little we have had from them it suggests they would likely have been worse. Though who knows really, better comms and less flip-flopping would have made quite a difference even if the policy was just as rubbish.
 
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