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From Monday 19th July - Government has laid Regulations revoking (most) restrictions

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Furrball

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Based on the government success rate for implementing anything that requires an element of IT highly doubt that anything will see the light of day
 
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takno

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I'm not sure what to make of the vaccine passports, are they good or bad?
ScotGov seem intent on avoiding the issue altogether by being too incompetent to actually provide them. Of course at this rate Scottish clubs probably won't ever be allowed to reopen, which would render the whole domestic-use question pretty moot up here
 

Scotrail314209

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ScotGov seem intent on avoiding the issue altogether by being too incompetent to actually provide them. Of course at this rate Scottish clubs probably won't ever be allowed to reopen, which would render the whole domestic-use question pretty moot up here

I’ve heard from bar staff that they are preparing for a mid August reopening.
 

takno

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I’ve heard from bar staff that they are preparing for a mid August reopening.
The assumption is that they will come back in the August 8th loosening. I'm not convinced they will - Sturgeon is far more interested in them as a political football than legitimate businesses and sources of entertainment. I'm getting progressively more confident that there will be a hand-wringing "difficult" decision to let the entire sector die. One for a different thread anyway
 

DustyBin

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I can guarantee you that the current government is not going to bring in a rule that will only let you have 14 units in a week as someone else has just suggested. You know as well as I do that just isn't going to happen so to discuss it like it may happen is utterly pointless and distracting from the real issues.

I took it as an example of the kind of thing that could happen if we carry on the way we are to be honest. It’s the principle that needs discussing. The real issue right now is that domestic covid passports have reappeared very suddenly and having done so it opens the door to other kinds of “passport” being needed to simply go about your everyday business.

Maybe but with 1st dose vaccinations dropping considerably over the last couple of weeks maybe a veiled threat for vaccination passports in a setting that younger people will gravitate to may give the vaccination levels a boost. Why else would they hold back for another two months as the highest risk is now not in two months time even with current reduced vaccine uptake in 18-30 year old group.

Mind you many are naturally acquiring some level of immunity just by catching it.

I hope this is simply an attempt at coercion but I’m very uncomfortable with it to say the least.

That’s a good point regarding natural immunity, most people will end up either jabbed or infected very quickly at the rate we’re going.
 

quantinghome

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You do like to exaggerate. You say deaths are doubling every 2 weeks, which they are, and then go on to say they will be above 100 per day in 1 week or so. Deaths are currently at 30 per day so presumably in your mind about 3 or 4 weeks is covered by “or so”.
The average number of deaths reported over the last seven days is 42, with 63 deaths reported in a single day.

You want a more specific prediction? OK. In the next 2 weeks we will see at least one day where more than 100 deaths will be reported. Naturally, I hope that I am wrong.
 

Bertie the bus

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The average number of deaths reported over the last seven days is 42, with 63 deaths reported in a single day.

You want a more specific prediction? OK. In the next 2 weeks we will see at least one day where more than 100 deaths will be reported. Naturally, I hope that I am wrong.
No it isn't. That is the UK total. This thread is about England and the effect lifting of restrictions in England will have.
 

quantinghome

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This thread is about England and the effect lifting of restrictions in England will have.
Really?
The assumption is that they will come back in the August 8th loosening. I'm not convinced they will - Sturgeon is far more interested in them as a political football than legitimate businesses and sources of entertainment. I'm getting progressively more confident that there will be a hand-wringing "difficult" decision to let the entire sector die. One for a different thread anyway
 

brad465

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It’s perhaps fair to say we don’t really know what Labour would have done, however certainly from what little we have had from them it suggests they would likely have been worse. Though who knows really, better comms and less flip-flopping would have made quite a difference even if the policy was just as rubbish.
I don't like to delve into whataboutery often, but I expect they could well have done a lot of stricter stuff as you suggest. However, the bulk of the media who tend to support Tory policy would have not stopped slating a Labour Government that imposed draconian measures and may have even incited disobedience to the point that any stricter measures would have been short lived or backed down on. However a lot of things like Test and Trace would have been handled more competently, again as the press would have pounced on them had they not been.
 

Domh245

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You want a more specific prediction? OK. In the next 2 weeks we will see at least one day where more than 100 deaths will be reported. Naturally, I hope that I am wrong.

It's inevitable that we'll see a 100+ day within the next couple of weeks, down to the way the patterns are if nothing else. Tuesdays always tend to be "bumper" days for deaths, so put the 27th down in the calendar!

The interesting one is when we'll see 100+ deaths a day "of" covid-19. English data for week ended 2/7 showed 81 deaths registered with covid as the underlying cause (vs 106 registered with Covid on death certificate vs 103 on 28 day metric, lagged a week to get them lined up) - Extrapolating those forward we won't hit 100 "bona-fide" covid deaths until around mid October assuming the current trends hold (english 'UCOD' has only been rising for a handful of weeks and is still quite noisy). This would require (assuming current trends) 1590 daily '28 day' deaths
 

Nicholas Lewis

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It's inevitable that we'll see a 100+ day within the next couple of weeks, down to the way the patterns are if nothing else. Tuesdays always tend to be "bumper" days for deaths, so put the 27th down in the calendar!

The interesting one is when we'll see 100+ deaths a day "of" covid-19. English data for week ended 2/7 showed 81 deaths registered with covid as the underlying cause (vs 106 registered with Covid on death certificate vs 103 on 28 day metric, lagged a week to get them lined up) - Extrapolating those forward we won't hit 100 "bona-fide" covid deaths until around mid October assuming the current trends hold (english 'UCOD' has only been rising for a handful of weeks and is still quite noisy). This would require (assuming current trends) 1590 daily '28 day' deaths
Agree in July highest daily rate, by date of death, so far is 38 on 9th July with wide variations in between but this statistic is notoriously sticky to get a handle on a trend. Currently its correlation to hospitalisation is about 1/4th of winter peak but hospitalisation ratio is a 1/10th of winter peak so mortality rate is c 1/40th of winter rate so highly unlikely to reach 100 unless case rate shifts up considerably.
 

SJN

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Correcting a statistic I gave at the press conference today, 19 July. About 60% of hospitalisations from covid are not from double vaccinated people, rather 60% of hospitalisations from covid are currently from unvaccinated people.

This is a copy of a tweet from Patrick Vallance.
 

DustyBin

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Correcting a statistic I gave at the press conference today, 19 July. About 60% of hospitalisations from covid are not from double vaccinated people, rather 60% of hospitalisations from covid are currently from unvaccinated people.

This is a copy of a tweet from Patrick Vallance.

The problem is, a lot of older people worried about the delta variant aren’t on Twitter so it’s damage (or job?) done…
 

yorksrob

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The problem is, a lot of older people worried about the delta variant aren’t on Twitter so it’s damage (or job?) done…

Indeed. Whilst it's easy to stumble of a statistic, it's important to make sure the correction is as close to widely known as the original statement as possible.

I would hope that the BBC would publish the correction on their live Covid update.
 

duncanp

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I took it as an example of the kind of thing that could happen if we carry on the way we are to be honest. It’s the principle that needs discussing. The real issue right now is that domestic covid passports have reappeared very suddenly and having done so it opens the door to other kinds of “passport” being needed to simply go about your everyday business.

That is what I meant when I suggested that the App could be used to limit the number of alcohol units per week you buy.

No-one in the government is suggesting that at the moment, but the introduction of the App makes it possible, and I think there are plenty of health fascists out there who would think it is a good idea.

If vaccine passports are required for normal everyday activities, it raises the possibility of the passport being suspended or revoked as a criminal or civil penalty.

I think there should be proper parliamentary scrutiny of the vaccine passport schem before it is introduced, rather than the regulations being laid before parliament at an antisocial time of day five seconds before they are due to come into effect.
 

NorthKent1989

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I'm not sure what to make of the vaccine passports, are they good or bad?

They're a terrible idea, it’s veiled coercion to get young people to get the jab, it’ll create a two tier society and won’t do much to save the economy, Boris has just become what Tory voters feared about Corbyn.

That is what I meant when I suggested that the App could be used to limit the number of alcohol units per week you buy.

No-one in the government is suggesting that at the moment, but the introduction of the App makes it possible, and I think there are plenty of health fascists out there who would think it is a good idea.

If vaccine passports are required for normal everyday activities, it raises the possibility of the passport being suspended or revoked as a criminal or civil penalty.

I think there should be proper parliamentary scrutiny of the vaccine passport schem before it is introduced, rather than the regulations being laid before parliament at an antisocial time of day five seconds before they are due to come into effect.

There should be no discussion on domestic vaccine passports because they should never come to pass, it’s illiberal and authoritarian, and breaks so many laws it’s crazy, you don’t need a DVP for more serious illness, and Covid is just a respiratory illness that will be seasonal now, this is an overreaction to a virus with a 99% survival rate.
 

Xenophon PCDGS

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They're a terrible idea, it’s veiled coercion to get young people to get the jab.
Can anyone produce any information on how other countries, world-wide, are treating the matter of "young people" being vaccinated. I know that this thread is specifically concerned with our own Government areas, but a comparison with other countries can be useful to know,
 

philosopher

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Can anyone produce any information on how other countries, world-wide, are treating the matter of "young people" being vaccinated. I know that this thread is specifically concerned with our own Government areas, but a comparison with other countries can be useful to know,
In Greece they are resorting to bribes to get the young vaccinated, according to a couple of my Greek colleagues. Those getting vaccinated receive 150 Euros.
 

island

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Can anyone produce any information on how other countries, world-wide, are treating the matter of "young people" being vaccinated. I know that this thread is specifically concerned with our own Government areas, but a comparison with other countries can be useful to know,
In France, ages 12-17 will need vaccine passport, proof of recovery, or recent negative test to do almost any activity besides grocery shopping from 30 August.
 

DustyBin

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In France, ages 12-17 will need vaccine passport, proof of recovery, or recent negative test to do almost any activity besides grocery shopping from 30 August.

And rather worryingly France is just over the channel, we’re not talking about some Far East military dictatorship here. I can well imagine a “harmonised” EU-wide scheme to be honest.
 

Smidster

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Well safe to say I am absolutely desolate right now - I am now a third class citizen who the Government has deemed surplus to requirements.

Frankly they are probably right.

I don't think they appreciate the real damage that vaccine passports are going to do and for absolutely no gain whatsoever.

Vaccines are wonderful things and the scientists have done an amazing job but medicine should always be a personal choice.

Good luck folks!
 

duncanp

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There should be no discussion on domestic vaccine passports because they should never come to pass, it’s illiberal and authoritarian, and breaks so many laws it’s crazy, you don’t need a DVP for more serious illness, and Covid is just a respiratory illness that will be seasonal now, this is an overreaction to a virus with a 99% survival rate.

I agree that there shouldn't be discussion of domestic vaccine passports, and at the moment I think that the government's intent is just to use them as a threat to get a few stragglers to book their vaccine appointments.

I think the government will look at the vaccination percentages some time in September, but also at the figures for new cases and hospitalisations, before deciding whether to go ahead with the proposal.

How on earth would domestic vaccine passports be enforced in a setting such as a crowded nightclub?

The "COVID Pass" would have to be checked against Photo ID, so what happens if you don't have a driving licence or passport?

And if it is checked against photo ID, then hey presto you have a de facto compulsory identity card scheme by the back door.
 

DustyBin

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Well safe to say I am absolutely desolate right now - I am now a third class citizen who the Government has deemed surplus to requirements.

Frankly they are probably right.

I don't think they appreciate the real damage that vaccine passports are going to do and for absolutely no gain whatsoever.

Vaccines are wonderful things and the scientists have done an amazing job but medicine should always be a personal choice.

Good luck folks!

I’m absolutely appalled by this decision. Just hang in there, we need to see what actually happens. Something this significant surely can’t be implemented without parliamentary scrutiny and is likely to result in a legal challenge. That’s what I’m hoping anyway!

And if it is checked against photo ID, then hey presto you have a de facto compulsory identity card scheme by the back door.

In other words “job done”!
 

island

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How on earth would domestic vaccine passports be enforced in a setting such as a crowded nightclub?

The "COVID Pass" would have to be checked against Photo ID, so what happens if you don't have a driving licence or passport?

And if it is checked against photo ID, then hey presto you have a de facto compulsory identity card scheme by the back door.
Last I checked, one typically needs photo ID to get into a nightclub.
 

kristiang85

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Can anyone produce any information on how other countries, world-wide, are treating the matter of "young people" being vaccinated. I know that this thread is specifically concerned with our own Government areas, but a comparison with other countries can be useful to know,

A colleague went to the states to see her family and decided to get her second jab there (it's on a no questions asked basis, as they want undocumented immigrants to get jabbed too, so mnimial details were needed). Not only did she get a jab as effectively a tourist, she was also given a $25 department store voucher.
 

Yew

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Oh please. Get off your high horse and stop putting words into my mouth.

It was just announced that 60% of covid hospitalisations are double-vaccinated. Vaccinations work. But they don't provide 100% immunity. Neither you, nor I, nor anyone else knows what the outcome of the PM's gamble is going to be. It could turn out 'OK' with a peak of 100 deaths a day and 'only' a few thousand deaths; or it could be very much worse. We just don't know. Hence why it's such a colossal gamble.
If that is the standard you are expecting, we will be under this cruel tyranny forever, as nothing is 100%.

I can guarantee you that the current government is not going to bring in a rule that will only let you have 14 units in a week as someone else has just suggested. You know as well as I do that just isn't going to happen so to discuss it like it may happen is utterly pointless and distracting from the real issues.
Didn't they "absolutely rule out" vaccine passports too? Or didn't our pandemic plans include the line "we will not close the borders or stop large events happening in any pandemic, no matter how severe"?
 
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