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From Monday 19th July - Government has laid Regulations revoking (most) restrictions

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Alex C.

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Only if you look under 21 or 25 though. I haven’t been ID’d for years, although my GF has, much to her delight!
I think that depends where you are - I can quite happily go for a night out in Sheffield without needing ID for example - in my home town I can get into local pubs but pretty much all bars and clubs do ID scanning, without it you won’t get in - not just for age checking, they also monitor if you’re on pub watch.

I presume it’s down to the local council how stringent they are with licensing requirements
 
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35B

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I’m absolutely appalled by this decision. Just hang in there, we need to see what actually happens. Something this significant surely can’t be implemented without parliamentary scrutiny and is likely to result in a legal challenge. That’s what I’m hoping anyway!
Parliamentary scrutiny will be required, though this government's approach to that is cause for concern - especially with the summer recess looming. As for legal challenges, I'd be surprised if they'd be successful given the strike rate of challenges against Covid restrictions so far, and the legal precedents supporting mandatory vaccination.
 

DustyBin

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Parliamentary scrutiny will be required, though this government's approach to that is cause for concern - especially with the summer recess looming. As for legal challenges, I'd be surprised if they'd be successful given the strike rate of challenges against Covid restrictions so far, and the legal precedents supporting mandatory vaccination.

I fear you may be correct, sadly.
 

NorthKent1989

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Oh please. Get off your high horse and stop putting words into my mouth.

It was just announced that 60% of covid hospitalisations are double-vaccinated. Vaccinations work. But they don't provide 100% immunity. Neither you, nor I, nor anyone else knows what the outcome of the PM's gamble is going to be. It could turn out 'OK' with a peak of 100 deaths a day and 'only' a few thousand deaths; or it could be very much worse. We just don't know. Hence why it's such a colossal gamble.

Life is a gamble, people will die, people have died of other things through lockdown and the media hasn’t given two hoots.

Normality has to return now, not later, now, locktavists have had their way this past 18 months.

Last I checked, one typically needs photo ID to get into a nightclub.
that’s different from an illiberal health passport

I agree that there shouldn't be discussion of domestic vaccine passports, and at the moment I think that the government's intent is just to use them as a threat to get a few stragglers to book their vaccine appointments.

I think the government will look at the vaccination percentages some time in September, but also at the figures for new cases and hospitalisations, before deciding whether to go ahead with the proposal.

How on earth would domestic vaccine passports be enforced in a setting such as a crowded nightclub?

The "COVID Pass" would have to be checked against Photo ID, so what happens if you don't have a driving licence or passport?

And if it is checked against photo ID, then hey presto you have a de facto compulsory identity card scheme by the back door.

Indeed, Blair is probably rubbing his hands with glee with this draconian measure.
 

PTR 444

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These people do not exist.
You sure about that? We’ve been talking about these types a lot on these forums lately, particularly on this thread:
 

WelshBluebird

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You sure about that? We’ve been talking about these types a lot on these forums lately, particularly on this thread:

And as I replied in that thread:
Except of course its employers who decide if someone is furloughed not the staff themselves. But let's not let the facts get in the way of the narrative.
 

DustyBin

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And as I replied in that thread:
Except of course its employers who decide if someone is furloughed not the staff themselves. But let's not let the facts get in the way of the narrative.

And some employees inexplicably don't seem to realise that furlough will end at some point, quite possibly along with their employment. I could point you in the direction of a couple of people who are in this category. I'm not saying there are millions of such people out there, but to say they don't exist is patently incorrect.
 

quantinghome

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You sure about that? We’ve been talking about these types a lot on these forums lately, particularly on this thread:
Oh well, if you've been talking about them on this forum then it must be true. Because there's never been a case of people saying stuff on this forum that turns out to be incorrect or a wild exaggeration. And Andrea Leadsom is always a reliable source, of course,

And just to make it crystal clear, this is what you said:
6. Those who want Covid to go on forever so they can stay on furlough indefinitely.
It remains my view that no one holds this opinion. As ever, happy to be proved wrong.

I'm not saying there are millions of such people out there, but to say they don't exist is patently incorrect.
Then show me an example of people "who want Covid to go on forever so they can stay on furlough indefinitely".
 

DustyBin

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Then show me an example of people "who want Covid to go on forever so they can stay on furlough indefinitely".

I could certainly show you examples of people who are quite happy for it to continue for a long time yet, as they like being furloughed. That's close enough in the context of this discussion unless you want to argue over semantics.
 

quantinghome

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That's close enough in the context of this discussion unless you want to argue over semantics.
I applaud your rhetorical positioning. You can now present a very different example, say "it's close enough" and then if I point this out you can accuse me of "arguing over semantics".
 

DustyBin

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I applaud your rhetorical positioning. You can now present a very different example, say "it's close enough" and then if I point this out you can accuse me of "arguing over semantics".

Thanks. ;)

Joking aside though, "forever" and "indefinitely" are strong words and I didn't take them literally.
 

jumble

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Well safe to say I am absolutely desolate right now - I am now a third class citizen who the Government has deemed surplus to requirements.

Frankly they are probably right.

I don't think they appreciate the real damage that vaccine passports are going to do and for absolutely no gain whatsoever.

Vaccines are wonderful things and the scientists have done an amazing job but medicine should always be a personal choice.

Good luck folks!

I don't believe this will happen but is just a ploy to get the young to be vaccinated
Are the authorities seriously going to stop foreign tourists and overseas residents going to nightclubs as in the absence of every single club being aware of what every single countries ID and proof of covid looks like as the government cannot realistically be saying you can only enter if you were vaccinated by our NHS ?
Are the nightclubs seriously going to be checking properly anyway ?
Are there bogus Apps that look exactly like the NHS one?



I am reminded in the USA buying petrol, paying by credit card and being asked for my british driving license but the person checking it did not have a clue if it was real or bogus and has no possible way of checking.
This is like Sadiq Kahn and his enforcement teams where he wants to be seen to be doing something
I have seen the same ones in a group of 7 twice once a few weeks ago and again today prowling about but stopping no one
( including me as I was on a phone call on an empty Harrow on the Hill Station)
The reason of course is that it is not a very effective tactic to deny someone travel on the tube as they can easily take another route, put on a mask and take it off 3 minutes later etc ( in the sticks with an hourly bus service it is obviously a different kettle of fish)
Interestingly there is not much difference in compliance on trains but at the open air stations there are many non maskers
 

Failed Unit

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Interestingly there is not much difference in compliance on trains but at the open air stations there are many non maskers

The police once said to me about speed limits, that for road users to respect them they need to feel like it is needed.

I think this is the same on public transport, I didn't realize that masking was needed on open platforms to be honest, but when you look at it, you think why is it any worse then walking down the high street? Recently you can easily spread yourself out enough to get lots of space from others until the train stops. The number of people on open platforms masked up in my experience is very low, although the mask up when the train arrives. Simply because they can't see the benefit. Underground I can see why the compliance is greater. If the open platforms were crowded it is possible more people would mask up, but at the moment why bother? Who are you protecting? (when you are probably not more then 2 metres from anyone)
 

Cdd89

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The government cannot realistically be saying you can only enter if you were vaccinated by our NHS ?
The government could reissue domestic certificates to those who present official proof of a foreign vaccine. I expect the EU certificate will be accepted pretty quickly.

Are the nightclubs seriously going to be checking properly anyway ?
Depends how many sticks the government threatens them with. They successfully persuaded them to close for 16 months!

Are there bogus Apps that look exactly like the NHS one?
They may look exactly the same, but the signature on the QR code won’t be valid. The government has released an app to check Covid Pass barcodes and displays the name on the barcode for rapid verification.

I don’t agree with this either, but I wouldn’t make the mistake of thinking it’s unworkable.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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I don't believe this will happen but is just a ploy to get the young to be vaccinated
Are the authorities seriously going to stop foreign tourists and overseas residents going to nightclubs as in the absence of every single club being aware of what every single countries ID and proof of covid looks like as the government cannot realistically be saying you can only enter if you were vaccinated by our NHS ?
Are the nightclubs seriously going to be checking properly anyway ?
Are there bogus Apps that look exactly like the NHS one?



I am reminded in the USA buying petrol, paying by credit card and being asked for my british driving license but the person checking it did not have a clue if it was real or bogus and has no possible way of checking.
This is like Sadiq Kahn and his enforcement teams where he wants to be seen to be doing something
I have seen the same ones in a group of 7 twice once a few weeks ago and again today prowling about but stopping no one
( including me as I was on a phone call on an empty Harrow on the Hill Station)
The reason of course is that it is not a very effective tactic to deny someone travel on the tube as they can easily take another route, put on a mask and take it off 3 minutes later etc ( in the sticks with an hourly bus service it is obviously a different kettle of fish)
Interestingly there is not much difference in compliance on trains but at the open air stations there are many non maskers
The 20-29 age group has been running at 20-25% of all cases for several weeks so c100k people a week are getting natural immunity. Also i suspect that this age group is less likely to get a test so its probably understated. Then with the ability to mix more readily from yesterday i would expect this age groups case rate as a total percentage to increase as well so highly possible 1m plus people will have had it before end of August. So if they gain some immunity from catching it the case levels will naturally decay away in next 3-4 weeks so the govt will be able to conveniently put on hold the idea of a vaccine passport. However, remember many countries are insisting on being double vaccinate to gain entry so its not just a UK lever that's being deployed.

The longer term issue is how long natural immunity gives some level of protection as if there is a flare up in the winter months what will the response be? Currently govt hasn't communicated how it will deal with that situation but with the level of vaccination it ought not involve national lockdowns. Personally i favour more locally targeted measures but many others don't I appreciate and there effectiveness is debatable but the neither so i want to see nationwide lockdowns again being used.
 

jumble

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The government could reissue domestic certificates to those who present official proof of a foreign vaccine. I expect the EU certificate will be accepted pretty quickly.


Depends how many sticks the government threatens them with. They successfully persuaded them to close for 16 months!


They may look exactly the same, but the signature on the QR code won’t be valid. The government has released an app to check Covid Pass barcodes and displays the name on the barcode for rapid verification.

I don’t agree with this either, but I wouldn’t make the mistake of thinking it’s unworkable.
Time will tell
Track and trace was mandatory for pubs
Spoons had someone on the doors enforcing for a few weeks but it pretty soon stopped
 

Xenophon PCDGS

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Noting that comment was made by a club owner with regard to vaccine passports affecting numbers attending events in his premises when it was stated that club goes would attend illegal events, remember those illegal raves that occurred in 2020 which were very well patronised.
 

35B

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Noting that comment was made by a club owner with regard to vaccine passports affecting numbers attending events in his premises when it was stated that club goes would attend illegal events, remember those illegal raves that occurred in 2020 which were very well patronised.
I’d be interested in what “very well patronised” means in terms of hard numbers as a proportion of those who regularly go to clubs. My hunch is that, in percentage terms, it’s a small but high profile minority.
 

johncrossley

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Cases in England may be shooting up at the moment, but can the Scotland data be used as a proxy as to what will happen in England over the next month? Cases in Scotland exceeded the January peak but are clearly on the way down. The level of restrictions in Scotland weren't very different to that in England before yesterday.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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Cases in England may be shooting up at the moment, but can the Scotland data be used as a proxy as to what will happen in England over the next month? Cases in Scotland exceeded the January peak but are clearly on the way down. The level of restrictions in Scotland weren't very different to that in England before yesterday.
I'd observe some plateauing in cases using 7 day average but with education settings now on summer hols i suspect we will see it fall as you identified it did in Scotland. The other point of interest in Scotland is that they never changed course on level relaxation despite considerable uplift in cases and its has naturally abated. Anyhow early days from step 4 so lets see where we are in 2-3 weeks.
 

43066

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I know my views will conflict with a lot on here, but I see no problem with the idea in general.
What I don't get is why from the end of September? That is literally two months from now - by which point it hopefully should be a pointless exercise! If you are going to do such a scheme it needs to be from now (with the options to show a negative test or a historic positive test for those who can't get vaccinated), otherwise it is just pointless.

I would imagine it’s the lack of honesty about the motives that many people find annoying.

AIUI there has never been any evidence that hospitality was a significant driver of infections, but obviously the government calculated that it would be politically awkward to have schools (which were a huge driver) shut with the pubs still open, hence an entire industry was thrown under the bus.

Clearly the ulterior motive now is to pressure more young people into being vaccinated, and once again to hell with the consequences for the hospitality industry.
 

sjpowermac

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I would imagine it’s the lack of honesty about the motives that many people find annoying.

AIUI there has never been any evidence that hospitality was a significant driver of infections, but obviously the government calculated that it would be politically awkward to have schools (which were a huge driver) shut with the pubs still open, hence an entire industry was thrown under the bus.

Clearly the ulterior motive now is to pressure more young people into being vaccinated, and once again to hell with the consequences for the hospitality industry.
Whilst I agree with most of what you’ve put there, do you have a source to back up this claim:
schools (which were a huge driver)…
It’s a claim that has been made several times by a variety of posters in recent days. @yorkie produced several links on the ‘Return to Education’ thread earlier in the year and they all indicated that schools were not major drivers.

*Not trying to catch anyone out, just genuinely interested if the evidence has changed *
 

35B

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Whilst I agree with most of what you’ve put there, do you have a source to back up this claim:

It’s a claim that has been made several times by a variety of posters in recent days. @yorkie produced several links on the ‘Return to Education’ thread earlier in the year and they all indicated that schools were not major drivers.

*Not trying to catch anyone out, just genuinely interested if the evidence has changed *
Correlation isn't causation, but it certainly appears that term time has some correlation to case numbers, directly and when schools stopped having to enforce mask wearing. I make no claims about cause and effect, but would be interested if there is any research proving or disproving that very general observation, ideally also providing a view of what has caused what.
 

NorthKent1989

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Reality does not conform to our wishes, unfortunately. We're in the exit wave and normality will resume after it's over, not during. It'll take as long as it takes.

More goal post moving I see, when will this be over? It’s only cases rising not deaths, it’s just more pandering to the fearful little locktavists, how about they lock themselves away and let the rest of us rational minded folk get on with living with this respiratory virus that we must live with

I know my views will conflict with a lot on here, but I see no problem with the idea in general.
What I don't get is why from the end of September? That is literally two months from now - by which point it hopefully should be a pointless exercise! If you are going to do such a scheme it needs to be from now (with the options to show a negative test or a historic positive test for those who can't get vaccinated), otherwise it is just pointless.

No problem with the idea, apart from the fact that it’ll create a two tier, discriminatory society it’s all Hunky dory isn’t it!

Maybe because this is some nudge tactics to get some more adults to take up the vaccine?

I suspect it is a blackmail ploy, but it does seem that Boris is becoming less like his idol and more like his idols enemy!

Boris Johnson referenced it in his press conference. The reason he has given is because everybody will have had the opportunity to have had both doses by the end of September. Whether you agree with vaccine passports or not you can't really argue with if they are to be introduced then people should be given the opportunity to get vaccinated first.

Then yesterday wasn’t freedom day, it was a temporary break from continual authoritarianism, we don’t need domestic vaccine passports for other more serious illnesses, and Covid is hardly Ebola, why bother with them at all, quite frankly the hospitality industry is right to not want this as it won’t do anything to save the economy
 
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43066

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Whilst I agree with most of what you’ve put there, do you have a source to back up this claim:
It’s a claim that has been made several times by a variety of posters in recent days. @yorkie produced several links on the ‘Return to Education’ thread earlier in the year and they all indicated that schools were not major drivers.

Honestly, no not really!

I’m going really on the furore around the closures in the first lockdown, and the logic that schools potentially lead to children taking infection back home to parents, grandparents etc., whereas pubs and clubs are more likely to spread infection amongst young/healthy people.


Correlation isn't causation, but it certainly appears that term time has some correlation to case numbers

IIRC last autumn many observers noted the return of schools preceded the rapid increase in cases that ultimately led to the “Christmas is cancelled” debacle. Obviously the seasons were also changing for the worse, so I’m not sure if it was ever conclusively proved one way or t’other.
 

quantinghome

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More goal post moving I see, when will this be over?
What is it with you and goalposts? The virus isn't done. I don't know when it will be over. Neither do you, nor does anybody. But it's quite clearly not over.

It’s only cases rising not deaths, it’s just more pandering to the fearful little locktavists, how about they lock themselves away and let the rest of us rational minded folk get on with living with this respiratory virus that we must live with.
This is where we are today. Any idea how many deaths we'll see in two weeks, four weeks, six weeks?

1626810164856.png
 

geoffk

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Correcting a statistic I gave at the press conference today, 19 July. About 60% of hospitalisations from covid are not from double vaccinated people, rather 60% of hospitalisations from covid are currently from unvaccinated people.

This is a copy of a tweet from Patrick Vallance.
Aren't most nightclubbers currently unvaccinated?
 

HSTEd

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This is where we are today. Any idea how many deaths we'll see in two weeks, four weeks, six weeks?

Cold bloodedly, ultimately a negligible number, given that ~1500 people die each and every day.
 
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43066

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This is where we are today. Any idea how many deaths we'll see in two weeks, four weeks, six weeks?

No idea.

But ultimately, once we are in the best position we can be, with the vulnerable and elderly long since fully vaccinated, there will remain a base level of mortality from the virus in general circulation. But I’m not sure what the rational argument is for extending restrictions beyond that point?

Unless, of course, the real agenda is a political one, and the intention is to cow the population and make it more more accepting of authoritarianism. Given the political leanings of certain sage advisors, and of those sections of the media who are most pro restriction, I’m increasingly convinced that’s what’s really going on here…
 
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