HS2 Manchester leg scrapped: what should happen now?

[Bletchleyite]

So if I'm reading that right, if you wanted to save a bit of money, you could just scrap phase 2A but still build something like 2B - having HS2 trains join the WCML at Lichfield and then leave again via a new grade-separated junction, presumably somewhere around Crewe?

You could indeed do that, though with 2A being by far the cheapest bit the saving would be small.

That might arguably be (pointer to my thread about that!) how the Swiss would do a Neubaustrecke - just bypass the congested bits. I think on that model you'd do 1 including Euston and Handsacre first (certainly pre COVID), then 2B, then finally 2A.

 

[Krokodil]

(replaced by a HS2 Manchester-Birmingham service, which would have the biggest speed gain of any HS2 service if I recall)

Only if you're not counting the Eastern Leg or Golborne spur. Birmingham to Leeds would have saved a whopping 1h9m had that section gone ahead.

 

[JamesRowden]

It's a long distance premier InterCity route (other than the Birminghams). You don't want to be sending everything back out within ten minutes with all the coffee cups and crisp packets still all over the floor and no time to stock the buffet, first class kitchen and trolley, there needs to be time to properly service the trains, which means you need a dwell at the London end of at least 20 minutes, ideally 30 (and add a bit on so it leaves again on the correct clockface time). It isn't Southern, Southeastern or SWR, and cannot be compared with those.

You also don't want to be interworking the branches too much as it causes delays to cascade across the whole operation. (I'm aware the nonsensical Avanti working agreements don't allow two trips the same in the same day for crews, but as I recall most crews only do one round trip a day anyway, it's only when you work a Birmingham that a second one is viable).

For a properly maintained, resilient InterCity service you really need about 0.8 to 1 platforms for 1tph, or thereabouts, minimum. Look at how the four platforms of EMR's bit of St Pancras struggled with 4tph, and I'm sure are now even worse with six. (That station was designed for the 2tph operated on the Midland in BR days).

I suppose you could tunnel out some reversing sidings, but would that be much cheaper than just finishing Euston?

About 10 minutes turn around is capable of 4tph per platform with double doors. So 2.25tph per platform does not need to be so fast. Just have the same number of cleaners cleaning trains faster by having fewer trains to simultaneously clean.

Perhaps the relatively short journey times on HS2 will make good catering only a requirement on the Scotlands?

What about an 8tph HS2 service of:
2tph Birmingham
2tph Manchester
2tph Liverpool
2tph Glasgow/Edinburgh

A train every 30 minutes on each branch.

It could be a turn up and go service from where it joins the WCML.

All other northern destinations can be a call or a simple change.

But really, I'm just having a bit of fun thinking up how, from this point in the project, an efficient service could be created by making HS2 a bit different to what everyone was expecting.

 

[stuu]

Unless they were going to change OOC to a larger terminus, it doesn't. Euston isn't just needed because it's in Central London (but it is very much needed for that reason), it's also because OOC won't have the capacity to reverse and service 9tph, which is what's required to move the full WCML fast service onto HS2.

What are you basing that assumption on? Turning around 1 train every 40 minutes per platform is hardly taxing. There may well need to be changes to the internal layout to support it, but in theory there's no obvious reason it can't be done. The single point of failure if the EL breaks is a bigger problem IMO

 

[Bletchleyite]

What are you basing that assumption on?

Euston as it is now.

Turning around 1 train every 40 minutes per platform is hardly taxing.

It is if you want any resilience at all. It might work if HS2 was all captive, but with services running onto the existing WCML you need a lot of slack for resilience.

 

[richieb1971]

HS2 announcements of late are particularly worrying. Not just because of scrapping of legs, but because the value for money on what is on the table is not anywhere near what the populace would consider value for money. Lets not forget it was the conservative government that pushed this to where it is now by literal force. I don't understand the budget for it sky rocketting but I know its a common theme in our country. It seems a bit like an insurance comparison website company that quotes the bear minimum at the start, but when you add all the bells and whistles you want it suddenly goes up.

Ideally the government should have said something a bit more stern by now. So much is going on right now on the project it just seems wasteful even further if it eventually gets the cancel a few months down the road.

 

[Mogster]

Not to mention remodelling Oxford Road.

Crikey, was that a pig I saw flying through the sky?


What are they going to do about it? Vote Labour? Hardly!


No, it's the swing voters who will lose this election for them. The ones such as those in the North who now know that the Tories still don't care about them.

From my very unscientific sampling of NW views relating to HS2 I’ve formed some conclusions. It appears most people living and working in and around Manchester are at best ambivalent towards HS2 and at worst openly hostile. The disinformation campaign of the mass media and the anti rail lobby has been very effective, almost totally so. As I’ve said previously I do feel HS2 has been sold incredibly poorly to the public and this is a major part of the problem.

At this point if I was in Sunak’s position then I’d see a bit of HS2 bashing as a possible vote winner. He may just be testing the water. The silence from Labour on this issue is also very telling. Although it may be the case of “never interfere with the enemy while he’s making a mistake”

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

There may well be 'stacks of capacity' from Lichfield to Stafford or a bit beyond, but I don't think that's true as you head nearer to Manchester: I believe capacity is huge problem for example between Stockport and Manchester, preventing more frequent commuter services to places South of Manchester. Although having said that, I'm not sure HS2 would've done that much to alleviate that particular problem.

The problems start north of Rugby where there are only 3 lines for a stretch (no Down Slow), and worse at Colwich as the WCML comes down to 2 tracks for a mile or so through Shugborough tunnel.
There are still 75mph slow lines in the Trent Valley (and via Northampton).
Then there are capacity issues on all lines beyond Crewe, despite the WCRM upgrade which just tackled a few pinch points.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Turkeys don't vote for Christmas

When were turkeys given the vote?

 

[Mogster]

HS2 announcements of late are particularly worrying. Not just because of scrapping of legs, but because the value for money on what is on the table is not anywhere near what the populace would consider value for money. Lets not forget it was the conservative government that pushed this to where it is now by literal force. I don't understand the budget for it sky rocketting but I know its a common theme in our country. It seems a bit like an insurance comparison website company that quotes the bear minimum at the start, but when you add all the bells and whistles you want it suddenly goes up.

Ideally the government should have said something a bit more stern by now. So much is going on right now on the project it just seems wasteful even further if it eventually gets the cancel a few months down the road.

If you view rail more as a national strategic asset then how do you decide if it’s providing “value for money” during its lifetime?

The backbone of energy security: The role of rail

Significant investments are needed in rail infrastructure modernisation to align more coherently with broader energy security goals.

ukdefencejournal.org.uk

In the current climate of scrutiny regarding the United Kingdom’s energy security, the recently published House of Commons Environmental Audit Committee report, ‘Accelerating the transition from fossil fuels and securing energy supplies’, serves as a wake-up call.​

Among the myriad elements that contribute to energy security, rail infrastructure emerges as an indispensable but often underrated player.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

You could indeed do that, though with 2A being by far the cheapest bit the saving would be small.

That might arguably be (pointer to my thread about that!) how the Swiss would do a Neubaustrecke - just bypass the congested bits. I think on that model you'd do 1 including Euston and Handsacre first (certainly pre COVID), then 2B, then finally 2A.

Although the saving would be small, you'd also gain more flexibility in which services you can run, since doing that would allow trains to run on the WCML to Crewe and then on HS2 to Manchester - something that's not possible with the current plans. That would allow you to run services from Manchester via HS2 to serve Stafford/Trent Valley/Rugby/Northampton/Milton Keynes/Wolverhampton/etc., not only giving those places a better service to Manchester, and Manchester Airport but also freeing up more capacity on the line via Stockport, and making better use of Phase 2B (which as I recall wasn't planned to have that many services on it).

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Not surprisingly Andy Burnham (mayor of Manchester) has called in disrespect to the north

Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham slams “disrespect” towards the North as HS2 hangs in the balance - Mancunian Matters

Andy Burnham has suggested the UK “is not a country of equals” to the Conservative government and “run more for

www.mancunianmatters.co.uk

I don't recall him saying this when the large sum of Treasury money came his way to allow him to develoip his pet project.

 

[Sorcerer]

Although it may be the case of “never interfere with the enemy while he’s making a mistake”

To be honest, while this strategy more often than not works, I think Labour should take the opportunity to capitalise on HS2 by not only phrasing it as a failure of the current Conservative Government, but also as a failure to invest into the north along the result of a broken system that had consultants circling around HS2 like vultures to a corpse instead of drawing upon the experience of people such as Rob Holden leading to the spiralling costs. In other words, phrase HS2 not as a failed investment, but the product of a failing government that the country could do without. I understand it's risky, but at this point Keir Starmer just does not inspire whatsoever because he's mostly seen as just a means of getting rid of the Tories and not necessarily a Prime Minister in waiting. The issue for me as a non-partisan left-leaning voter Labour just doesn't seem to properly stand for anything.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

To be honest, while this strategy more often than not works, I think Labour should take the opportunity to capitalise on HS2 by not only phrasing it as a failure of the current Conservative Government, but also as a failure to invest into the north along the result of a broken system that had consultants circling around HS2 like vultures to a corpse instead of drawing upon the experience of people such as Rob Holden leading to the spiralling costs. In other words, phrase HS2 not as a failed investment, but the product of a failing government that the country could do without. I understand it's risky, but at this point Keir Starmer just does not inspire whatsoever because he's mostly seen as just a means of getting rid of the Tories and not necessarily a Prime Minister in waiting. The issue for me as a non-partisan left-leaning voter Labour just doesn't seem to properly stand for anything.

Good shout but Labour will say nothing their paranoid of their own shadow now.

 

[Gaelan]

Incidentally, talking with a friend about this brought up an interesting point, albeit one that's maybe rather moot now: were there ever actually concrete plans for new local services to make use of the capacity freed up by HS2? It would be so dreadfully in character for the UK to spend billions of pounds to free up capacity, then balk at the cost of, say, the rolling stock to actually run new services on the conventional lines.

 

[Irascible]

Can East Kent join, leave London and the southwest. It could be an "overland territory"!

Feel free - the south-west is gonna join Wales & Scotland & NI in a new celtic country. We'll claim a little bit of Somerset & Dorset as spoils ( say, Bristol to Bournemouth ). London can become it's own city state & the tories can stay in the home counties & waffle as they like.

 

[Purple Orange]

It's a long distance premier InterCity route (other than the Birminghams). You don't want to be sending everything back out within ten minutes with all the coffee cups and crisp packets still all over the floor and no time to stock the buffet, first class kitchen and trolley, there needs to be time to properly service the trains, which means you need a dwell at the London end of at least 20 minutes, ideally 30 (and add a bit on so it leaves again on the correct clockface time). It isn't Southern, Southeastern or SWR, and cannot be compared with those.

You also don't want to be interworking the branches too much as it causes delays to cascade across the whole operation. (I'm aware the nonsensical Avanti working agreements don't allow two trips the same in the same day for crews, but as I recall most crews only do one round trip a day anyway, it's only when you work a Birmingham that a second one is viable).

For a properly maintained, resilient InterCity service you really need about 0.8 to 1 platforms for 1tph, or thereabouts, minimum. Look at how the four platforms of EMR's bit of St Pancras struggled with 4tph, and I'm sure are now even worse with six. (That station was designed for the 2tph operated on the Midland in BR days).

If we assume the Birmingham services are all 200m units and they (as well as the Manchesters) are on a 3 tph frequency. Additionally there are 2 Liverpool and a Glasgow on a 2 tph and 1 tph frequency respectively. Could the 6 platforms at OOC be split in to A and B sections, could the station therefore not accommodate a full WCML transfer of 9 tph?

For example, a Glasgow service comes in on P1 and terminates at the city end, with a 90 min dwell. 20 minutes later a Liverpool services comes in on P1 and terminates at the country end, with a 20 min dwell. This is followed by another Liverpool service 10 mins later with a 20 min dwell. The process is repeated on P6 offset by an hour, which means a 1 tph pattern for the Glasgow services, which arrive on the hour and depart on the half hour. The Liverpool services depart at XX:10 and XX:40.

Meanwhile on P2-P5, 200m Birmingham & Manchester services operate. A service arrives from Birmingham and 30 mins later departs to Manchester. A service from Manchester arrives and departs to Birmingham 30 mins later. This cycle happens on a 10 min frequency, giving 3 tph to both Manchester and Birmingham spaced 20 mins apart.

 

[Bornin1980s]

Deleted

 

[Krokodil]

but with services running onto the existing WCML you need a lot of slack for resilience.

Ah, you can solve that by keeping the trains on dedicated track, all the way to er - Manchester. Hang on...

The Times is reporting that Euston is safe though, so it's probably academic.

Incidentally, talking with a friend about this brought up an interesting point, albeit one that's maybe rather moot now: were there ever actually concrete plans for new local services to make use of the capacity freed up by HS2? It would be so dreadfully in character for the UK to spend billions of pounds to free up capacity, then balk at the cost of, say, the rolling stock to actually run new services on the conventional lines.

I don't reckon that the detail will have been gone into, but regardless the extra white space would make the existing lines more resilient. I don't doubt that the FOCs will be bidding for paths too.

 

[Luke McDonnell]

What about Phase 2a to Crewe the assumption seems that this if for the chop too but I have just read that the bill for 2a was given Royal Assent in 2021 so wouldn't it be more difficult to reverse that now or if not would that be more simple for say an incoming Labour government to reinstate?

 

[DynamicSpirit]

The Times is reporting that Euston is safe though, so it's probably academic.

Umm. I know this is still speculative, but if that means we're scrapping the Northern half of the line but still building the hyper-expensive underground station in London... you can imagine how well that's not going to go down with people in the North!

Incidentally, talking with a friend about this brought up an interesting point, albeit one that's maybe rather moot now: were there ever actually concrete plans for new local services to make use of the capacity freed up by HS2? It would be so dreadfully in character for the UK to spend billions of pounds to free up capacity, then balk at the cost of, say, the rolling stock to actually run new services on the conventional lines.

Given that much of HS2 won't be finished for another 10 years or so, it's a bit early to be making definitely commitments to service patterns. But yes, there were rough outline plans for making use of the freed up capacity. Broadly speaking, the southern WCML would see more semi-fast services. And services like some of the the Avanti London-Birmingham, London-Manchester and London-Liverpool trains would still run, but would stop at more places, so they'd be there primarily to serve intermediate WCML stations rather than - as today - for through end-to-end journeys.

And you wouldn't need new rolling stock to use the capacity - since all the existing Avanti trains will still be there, and will no longer be required for the superfast London-the North services that they currently run.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

What about Phase 2a to Crewe the assumption seems that this if for the chop too but I have just read that the bill for 2a was given Royal Assent in 2021 so wouldn't it be more difficult to reverse that now or if not would that be more simple for say an incoming Labour government to reinstate?

With the involved costings that all and sundry seem aware of, I am sure that Labour will find more alternative projects to spend money on, should they enter office at the next General Election.

 

[Bornin1980s]

Given that much of HS2 won't be finished for another 10 years or so, it's a bit early to be making definitely commitments to service patterns. But yes, there were rough outline plans for making use of the freed up capacity. Broadly speaking, the southern WCML would see more semi-fast services. And services like some of the the Avanti London-Birmingham, London-Manchester and London-Liverpool trains would still run, but would stop at more places, so they'd be there primarily to serve intermediate WCML stations rather than - as today - for through end-to-end journeys.

Might that be why Avanti is now buying non-tilt stock?

 

[Krokodil]

With the involved costings that all and sundry seem aware of, I am sure that Labour will find more alternative projects to spend money on, should they enter office at the next General Election.

It's not a fixed pot of money.

Might that be why Avanti is now buying non-tilt stock?

Tilt no longer gives the advantages it used to. Modern stock can accelerate faster and as good as match Pendo journey times.

 

[Bornin1980s]

It's not a fixed pot of money.


Tilt no longer gives the advantages it used to. Modern stock can accelerate faster and as good as match Pendo journey times.

I hope that means no more tilt profile trains.

 

[Tezza1978]

Ah, you can solve that by keeping the trains on dedicated track, all the way to er - Manchester. Hang on...

The Times is reporting that Euston is safe though, so it's probably academic.

As bad as this "announcement" will be, clearly the pressure on Sunak to NOT cancel Euston (to avoid the line being a complete joke) has seemingly had some effect.

If this is how it pans out - expect Labour to quickly commit to 2A if they win (its cheap as chips comparatively speaking) and sweep 2B under the carpet temporarily, by bundling the whole thing in to NPR as a seperate project.

 

[WatcherZero]

Times front page says Old Oak to Euston has been kept.
Several papers saying this is Sunaks personal decision and hes overriding Cabinet which is broadly against axing it. I believe the Treasury has been briefing the decision has been made even before its been put to Cabinet.

Its hardly gone down well with the Business community

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Might that be why Avanti is now buying non-tilt stock?

No, that's just the most economic way to replace Voyagers under the wires.
Right now, you can't buy a UK-spec tilting train, while 80x are essentially off the shelf.

 

[Austriantrain]

The Times is reporting that Euston is safe though, so it's probably academic.

As long as that is true, the cornerstone of HS2 (=a new high-capacity railway into London with a commensurate high-capacity central station) is preserved. All else can build on it, even if it takes another generation.

 

[Bletchleyite]

As long as that is true, the cornerstone of HS2 (=a new high-capacity railway into London with a commensurate high-capacity central station) is preserved. All else can build on it, even if it takes another generation.

One could argue it worth "delaying" 2a and 2b to do an 11 platform Euston and domestic station rebuild properly and sooner to be a good plan - but Euston is essential - without it the project is worthless.