HS2 Manchester leg scrapped: what should happen now?

[JonathanH]

Nobody's saying that though, are they? However you generally can't employ people for most of the roles we're talking about without engineering degrees. These aren't common among our population. It's very difficult to fill roles with experienced staff. Are you seriously suggesting these people could simply be paid less?

Well arguably they won't get paid anything if the project is cancelled, and some of them will unfortunately lose their jobs. That unfortunately does kind of suggest that the country can't afford their skills at the market price.

 

[trebor79]

It’s not at construction yet though. It’s still with the planning inspectors who haven’t made announced a decision yet, and could still request major changes or even refuse (these things won’t happen because it’s in the south-east and it’s a road, not railway).

But the point is 21st century infrastructure projects cost 10s of billions of pounds. Not millions.

There was a piece in Private Eye about this. Current plan is to use 2 TBMs, one for each tunnel.
But it's been shown to be cheaper and almost as quick to use 1 TBM and spin it round for the second bore. This would also save a significant amount of emissions in building and transporting a TBM to site.
But this change means 2 "launch" areas instead of one and various other changes, which potentially means much if the environmental assessments have to be done all over again.

Is it any wonder infrastructure takes an age and costs so much when there is so much over the top nonsense like this to deal with?

With modern technology, we should be able to build things far more quickly than in the past. In the 1940s the country managed to build fully operational heavy bomber airfields from scratch in less than a year, many times over. How long would it take to build an airport now...

 

[Starmill]

Well arguably they won't get paid anything if the project is cancelled, and some of them will unfortunately lose their jobs. That unfortunately does kind of suggest that the country can't afford their skills at the market price.

Indeed and that's obviously a serious indictment of our country.

Luckily for those with the years of experience and the CV to match, the Australians, Swedes and others are more than happy to keep funding flowing to pay for those skills from British workers. Will be really really bad for those in apprentice or new graduate roles though.

 

[HSTEd]

No. They were simply the natural part of moving to the full business case stage and applying background construction industry inflation. That scheme was good value for money.

The scheme was already assessed as low value for moeny by January 2020, as the NAO notes (pg 57/66):

At the time of publishing this report, the Department assessed, using the standard method for appraising transport projects that Phase One would achieve a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of £1 of benefits for every £1 invested,[31] which the Department considers low value for money.[32] Once Phases 2a and 2b estimates are included, the phases that enable the majority of benefits, the estimate increases to £1.40 of benefits for every £1 invested, which remains low value for
money.

These assessments reflect updates to the standard appraisal methodology as well as changes to some of the modelling assumptions used in the Department and HS2 Ltd’s previous BCR assessments in 2017. However, these BCR calculations
are indicative and will change as certainty on future costs and benefits improves

EDIT: Added link to the NAO report in question.
EDIT #2: Added the next few lines to avoid being accused of cherrypicking.

 

[The Planner]

Are there any options to grade-separate Colwich?

None.

 

[Bevan Price]

When do we expect the announcement that money is now available to build / extend / improve several motorways ??

 

[Bornin1980s]

We've heard your arguments before about using more mined tunnels and fewer cuttings before and they've all been debunked. I appreciate your stamina but unfortunately you're not going to convince anyone.

High speed railways in China and Spain are very poor value for money. Much poorer than HS2 would be.

Is there opposition to high speed rail in Spain?

 

[Krokodil]

how will this affect the new Manchester Airport station and how will the line run from there into Manchester?

There won't be a new Manchester Airport station. HS2 will finish at Handsacre and trains will continue to Manchester via the two existing, congested routes. There will be no capacity increase. In fact, given that they will presumably not be extending the platforms to 400m now there may be a capacity decrease because a single HS2 unit was supposed to be shorter than a Pendo. No 400m platforms = no double sets.

 

[HSTEd]

None.

I think if you were going to do something about Colwich you would probably have to do something at Handsacre and switch to paired by destination rather than paired by use.

But then that creates a mess at Rugeley Trent Valley.

What a wonderful bottleneck they've created!

 

[Peter Sarf]

Sky news reporting this now.. again just gossip 'Sky News understands....'

HS2 will go to Manchester on the WCML but wont be high speed.
Baffling eh?

HS2 won't be high speed between Manchester and Birmingham

The rail line will stop in Manchester but from Birmingham it will switch to use existing West Coast Mainline track. It effectively confirms days of speculation that the northern leg of HS2 has been shelved - with Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham branding the plans a "disgrace".

news.sky.com

HS2 will start at Euston rather than Old Oak Common - but between Birmingham and Manchester it will not be high speed, Sky News understands.

The rail line will stop in Manchester, but from Birmingham it will switch to use existing West Coast Mainline track.


It will therefore not be high speed after Birmingham - effectively confirming days of speculation that the northern leg of the controversial project has been shelved.

Alongside the doubt over Manchester, there have also been question marks over Euston station and whether the line would terminate there as originally planned.

There had been rumours that it could stop at Old Oak Common instead, but Sky News understands the rail line will stop at Euston in a move that could be designed to placate critics.


The development, broken on the Politics Hub with Sophy Ridge programme, follows repeated attempts by Rishi Sunak and other members of the Cabinet to bat away questions regarding the future of the northern leg of the project.

The government initially tried to downplay the original reports, saying they were "incorrect" and that no "final decisions" had been made regarding the northern leg, known as phase two.

From this I understand it as :-

Euston-Birmingham intact with a standard speed line built Birmingham to Manchester. But insert the word service and it makes sense and next paragraph corroborates this.

It does not really stop at Euston - in the context of the paragraph it continues to Euston. As for it being a move to placate critics that really is a convoluted way of saying that dropping Euston had to be avoided because it was too big a backwards step.

Its sort of poor English.

Has the East Midlands leg already been scrapped or is an announcement likely on this as well?

The East Midlands leg was kicked into the long grass ages ago.

 

[SCDR_WMR]

I think if you were going to do something about Colwich you would probably have to do something at Handsacre and switch to paired by destination rather than paired by use.

But then that creates a mess at Rugeley Trent Valley.

What a wonderful bottleneck they've created!

Time for a flyover to be built for the Hixon line lol

 

[Energy]

standard speed line built Birmingham to Manchester

No new line, existing infrastructure from Handsacre north supposedly.

I wouldn't be 100% sure if this is settled on, 2a and phase 1 are intertwined for economies of scale so whether it survives or not I'd expect to depend on what cuts Arup get back with. I'm expecting Crewe to Manchester to get bundled in with NPR and deferred.

 

[Luke McDonnell]

What do you expect Labour to say given that they are likely to form the next government do you expect them to make a commitment maybe next week to complete the line to Manchester or at least Crewe at least it puts them on the spot and makes this a live election issue I have written to my MP specifically asking for thier position on this

 

[HSTEd]

What do you expect Labour to say given that they are likely to form the next government do you expect them to make a commitment maybe next week to complete the line to Manchester or at least Crewe at least it puts them on the spot and makes this a live election issue I have written to my MP specifically asking for thier position on this

I expect them to say nothing at all.

Starmer isn't exactly known for making commitments.

They are going to need a pile of money for a rebuild of Rugeley Trent Valley and Colwich Junction to make this work.

 

[Midnight13]

I expect them to say nothing at all.

Starmer isn't exactly known for making commitments.

They are going to need a pile of money for a rebuild of Rugeley Trent Valley and Colwich Junction to make this work.

I’m assuming they’ll just move existing Avanti services onto high speed, so the actual number of services between rugeley and Colwich might not change.
The tricky part is the high speed services joining the WCML on what I presume will be the slow lines

 

[JonathanH]

The tricky part is the high speed services joining the WCML on what I presume will be the slow lines

Given it is paired by direction, it shouldn't be too much of an issue. The trains just move over to the fast at the first opportunity.

 

[HSTEd]

I’m assuming they’ll just move existing Avanti services onto high speed, so the actual number of services between rugeley and Colwich might not change.
The tricky part is the high speed services joining the WCML on what I presume will be the slow lines

The route diagram has a complicated flyover structure with the two HS2 tracks coming into the middle of the existing formation, which I assume are the fast lines.

The problem is what happens at Colwich junction a few kilometres up the route.

I'd suggeest the better option would be to rebuild Rugeley Trent Valley, switch to paired by destination and abolish Colwich junction entirely. HS2 trains would be dropped primarily on the line via Stone.

 

[Midnight13]

Given it is paired by direction, it shouldn't be too much of an issue. The trains just move over to the fast at the first opportunity.

I think the potential issue will be weaving the freight around them

 

[Retorus]

A link to this thread would have been nice when you closed the other one @yorkie.

Anyway, a shocking decision but not at all unexpected. Let’s see what pitiful offerings Sunak tries to push forward as an alternative.

 

[Midnight13]

The route diagram has a complicated flyover structure with the two HS2 tracks coming into the middle of the existing formation, which I assume are the fast lines.

The problem is what happens at Colwich junction a few kilometres up the route.

I'd suggeest the better option would be to rebuild Rugeley Trent Valley, switch to paired by destination and abolish Colwich junction entirely. HS2 trains would be dropped on the line via Stone.

The fast lines would make much more sense, I assumed it would be the slows because they’re on the outside.
If the service quantum and routing north of Rugeley remained the same, would there be much more of an issue compared to todays timetable?

 

[HSTEd]

The fast lines would make much more sense, I assumed it would be the slows because they’re on the outside.
If the service quantum and routing north of Rugeley remained the same, would there be much more of an issue compared to todays timetable?

My understanding is that Colwich Junction and associated track is a major problem even today.
I could be wrong on that score.

Eliminating it as a constraint would go a major way to unlocking the piles of spare capacity that Curzon Street and Euston will have available.
New Street is going to be full and Curzon Street and Euston HS2 almost empty.

 

[snowball]

The route diagram has a complicated flyover structure with the two HS2 tracks coming into the middle of the existing formation, which I assume are the fast lines.

I think that layout was replaced with one in which the up line towards HS2 turns off to the left from the leftmost existing Trent Valley track as seen by a London-bound train, while the down line from HS2 flies over all four Trent Valley tracks and then joins the leftmost track as seen by a northbound train.

 

[Arkeeos]

Since most future rail transport plans are effectively dead, what should happen now? What should the next governments transport policy look like if High speed lines are out of question for the foreseeable future.

 

[HSTEd]

Since most future rail transport plans are effectively dead, what should happen now? What should the next governments transport policy look like if High speed lines are out of question for the foreseeable future.

We try to work out how to squeeze as much as we can out of the line to Curzon Street and Handsacre I guess.

If HS2 Phase 1 can be an operational success we may still be able to get another line built in our lifetimes.

 

[Bucephalus]

Since most future rail transport plans are effectively dead, what should happen now? What should the next governments transport policy look like if High speed lines are out of question for the foreseeable future.

How about an interchange station with East West rail?

 

[ScottGallagher]

I'm sure it's just token solidarity, but why would Manchester United care whether HS2 reaches Manchester, last time I was there its still a Metrolink ride then a fair walk to the stadium in any situation!

 

[WatcherZero]

The Birmingham-Crewe section was required to keep the Scotland/North WCML service times even remotely competitive with the existing service today wernt they, even then they still needed to do something beyond that.

 

[Starmill]

The scheme was already assessed as low value for moeny by January 2020, as the NAO notes (pg 57/66):





EDIT: Added link to the NAO report in question.
EDIT #2: Added the next few lines to avoid being accused of cherrypicking.

Nice try, but that's the number excluding wider economic benefits. Notice how cancelling most of the scheme has also brought the BCR down so it's at risk of being less than 1?

 

[daodao]

Sunak appears to have made the sensible decision to kick the expensive white elephant of HS2 phase 2b/NPR into the long grass, so presumably the bill currently in progress through the Westminster Parliament will be withdrawn. It is good that this is to be done in Manchester to humiliate Burnham.

However, what will happen with HS2 phase 2a? Will the works just be mothballed and the powers granted to construct it be preserved, so that the scheme could be resurrected at a later date, or will the scheme be actively cancelled by destroying the works already done and/or actively cancelling the authority to construct it? Not constructing phase 2a means that a bottleneck will remain on the WCML between Lichfield and Stafford, so I would hope that in the fullness of time it could be built, and also enable trains to run non-stop from Birmingham to Crewe to bypass the congested line via Wolverhampton.

 

[Snow1964]

The Financial Times is reporting that the Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has saved Euston section, as not building to Central London would damage Britains reputation

UK chancellor Jeremy Hunt launched a successful rearguard action to ensure the HS2 high-speed rail line is built to Euston station in central London, even as Rishi Sunak prepared to axe the northern leg of the route. Sunak, the prime minister, had mulled terminating the line at Old Oak Common, six miles from central London, to save money, but government insiders said Hunt fought to ensure it continued to a purpose-built terminus at Euston. One official said Hunt argued the line should be built to Euston on economic grounds, but also because of the damage to Britain’s reputation if the route terminated in the London suburbs. Hunt made his position clear in January when he said: “I don’t see any conceivable circumstances in which [the line] would not end up at Euston.” Sunak recently claimed Old Oak Common had “very strong” links to the rest of London via the new Elizabeth Line. Several Conservative officials said Hunt’s view had prevailed.

Jeremy Hunt pushed for HS2 rail line to end in central London | Financial Times

UK chancellor argued successfully for a Euston terminus as Rishi Sunak prepares to axe the route’s northern leg

www.ft.com