Is the Heathrow Express a viable, worthwhile service?

[railfan99]

2 extra trains per hour, those paths now used to allow the GWR semi-fasts to run on the Mains to Slough

What is the minimum train headway on that section (assuming all trains are operating at similar speeds and with identical stopping conditions, which may be an unrealistic scenario)?

 

[Horizon22]

Despite HEx’s reduced passenger numbers (which Heathrow have spent more than a decade expecting and planning for!), Elizabeth Line doesn’t have the capacity to take on all of Heathrow’s heavy rail traffic. The locals at Ealing, Southall etc are already up in arms about “their” trains being overly full of travellers to/from the Airport with their luggage; and consequently not getting the improved service that years of disruption promised them.

Well they’ve got at least 6tph of 9 car trains as opposed to 2-3 car Turbos rattling down the line! There’s been a lot of population change in the area though.

The only way I can see which works is “fast” Elizabeth line trains from Paddington to Heathrow crossing at Ladbroke Grove which is a performance risk, and is that the right use of the fast paths? Unsure. All moot anyway as HeX isn’t going anywhere soon.

What is the minimum train headway on that section (assuming all trains are operating at similar speeds and with identical stopping conditions, which may be an unrealistic scenario)?

Pretty sure it’s 3 minutes.

 

[railfan99]

Pretty sure it’s 3 minutes.

If minimum headway is that, it's impressive by world standards given it's not a 'metro'.

 

[The Planner]

If minimum headway is that, it's impressive by world standards given it's not a 'metro'.

3 minute headways all over the place on the network. Its as low as 2 between Paddington and Reading in specific circumstances.

 

[Horizon22]

If minimum headway is that, it's impressive by world standards given it's not a 'metro'.

The trains are obviously not stopping though.

 

[185143]

I used HEX the only time I've flown out of Heathrow. I'd just missed a CrossRail train, the next one wasn't for 25 minutes so I got the Heathrow Express. Expensive, especially given I had a Travelcard, but I was in the airside 'Spoons with a beer in my hand 40 minutes later.

It's definitely a premium option, but it is a good passenger experience. Especially when the alternative would have been a full and standing 345 in the evening peak, and I had luggage.

But is it a good use of paths out of Paddington? That's the debate. I was in the second carriage and had the "third" of the carriage to myself. So I'd say no. But as mentioned above, GWR with their current IET fleet are not in a position to expand services. So if the paths would lie unused then go for it. HAL clearly see value in it. Plus, wedging everyone onto Metro style trains (be that CrossRail or the Piccadilly line) with limited luggage space wouldn't be good for either the airport passengers who are probably jet lagged coming off long haul flights nor the passengers from the likes of Southall and Ealing Broadway who would be left to climb over suitcases just to board the train. Heathrow's airlines and their passengers will be dealing with suitcases en mass, it's very different to the Ryanair crowd who are incentivised to stuff their possessions into the smallest bag you can find.

Most major cities will have a fast train, or a fast coach from the main airport, Heathrow shouldn't be any different. At least HEX actually is a premium service compared to the alternatives, unlike a certain other TOC to another airport who also use 387s.

 

[JonathanH]

GWR with their current IET fleet are not in a position to expand services

Is that actually true, or do they just choose not to occupy every possible path? Is it actually Heathrow Express which is the limiting factor?

A lot of the dissent about Heathrow Express is based on the fares charged. If it were being charged at a more universally affordable fare, I don't think people would question its existence.

If it was 'Reading Express', offering a cheaper fare to Reading but using 110mph 387s taking up two 125mph paths, and there was a prospect of splitting up Reading flows from long distance flows, I don't think there would be the same questions about the use of paths.

 

[Horizon22]

Is that actually true, or do they just choose not to occupy every possible path? Is it actually Heathrow Express which is the limiting factor?

A lot of the dissent about Heathrow Express is based on the fares charged. If it were being charged at a more universally affordable fare, I don't think people would question its existence.

If it was 'Reading Express', offering a cheaper fare to Reading but using 110mph 387s taking up two 125mph paths, and there was a prospect of splitting up Reading flows from long distance flows, I don't think there would be the same questions about the use of paths.

Yes; GWR's IET fleet woes are well documented.

 

[JonathanH]

Yes; GWR's IET fleet woes are well documented.

That wasn't the question. I was asking whether GWR, given no fleet constraints, would actually be able to justify using the Heathrow Express paths, and whether it is just because they are used for a premium service that people object to it.

 

[zwk500]

True the H&C/Circle is of course better.

Maybe they don't but passenger numbers to Heathrow overall haven't changed much, and Heathrow Connect wasn't super popular so you have to wonder where the people have transferred from. I don't think modal analysis has been done on this yet although maybe HAL would rather not know!

There was a 2019 Surface Access Report that was quite clear (Although obviously pre-covid). https://www.heathrow.com/content/da...ading/Heathrow-Airport-Travel-Report-2019.pdf

For 2019, the public transport mode share for passengers was 39.3%. This is a very slight (0.1%) decrease from 2018. Of passengers arriving on public transport, just over half (51%) use the underground, 29% use bus and coach, and 20% use rail. For more detailed information on passenger surface access, please see Section 7.2.
(Section 5.2.4, page 15 (page 12 of file)).

Heathrow Airport report in 2023 that Public Transport usage for surface access had gone to 43% (Target of 45% in 2026), after the Elizabeth Line opened.https://www.heathrow.com/content/dam/heathrow/web/common/documents/company/heathrow-2-0-sustainability/reports/2023_Heathrow_Sustainability_Report.pdf

 

[JN114]

That wasn't the question. I was asking whether GWR, given no fleet constraints, would actually be able to justify using the Heathrow Express paths, and whether it is just because they are used for a premium service that people object to it.

Probably not. An additional 2-4 tph isn’t going to yield the additional revenue to make such enhancements viable; even if you could make room for them further down the line.

The “commuter” runs to Bristol or Cardiff aren’t busy enough to support more trains economically; and the “leisure” market further afield to Wales or Cornwall fills trains but at typically low ticket prices paid (the XC conundrum all over again). A Reading super shuttle to relieve the IC services would be welcome from a passenger numbers standpoint; but would cost more than it earns - and siphon revenue away to TfL in the process with revenue sharing rules. It would also struggle to find capacity to turn around a train at Reading with platform utilisation as it is already. So there isn’t a “viable” use case in my eyes even if HEx did give up those paths.

And unlike Heathrow Airport; who could theoretically run HEx at a loss if they chose to and absorb those costs into the wider airport operation quite comfortably - neither GWR nor their DfT paymasters remotely have any interest in introducing further losses to the GWR operation. What should be a lucrative Intercity operation a la LNER or Avanti is already hamstrung by having to cross-subsidise local and regional services in and across the South West.

HEx is expensive; largely because at present that’s the price enough of their market will pay. The point I’ve made several times before stands - HEx have, and are aware they have, plenty of headroom to reduce fares to stimulate demand if they feel they need to. That they didn’t when EL opened fully, and continue not to now in the face of reduced passenger numbers, shows their conviction in the post-EL business plan they’ve been working on for over a decade.

And Elizabeth Line, with 90mph stock, can go whistle frankly; it wouldn’t work to Airport Jn never mind beyond.

 

[Meerkat]

Well when Heathrow Express is extended through to Woking and beyond……..

 

[Class93]

New chief executive of Heathrow has been tasked with 20% cuts (no source, common local knowledge) so I wouldn’t be suprised if the service is ‘right sized’ at some point in the future. Depends how much the true cost is to HAL and if there is scope to drop it to 3tph, especially with the dire loadings.

The death of the third runway, likewise to the southern and western access proposals as a result will mean there will be little drive from HAL to want to bother having such an intensive service; even if they chucked planning in tomorrow for all three projects, it would still be 6 - 10 years before they would open (on the past application timelines).

 

[Failed Unit]

Which I could understand prior to the Elizabeth line. But now you can be run to the heart of London (TCR), the City (Liverpool Street) or Canary Wharf on one direct train (less tph for the latter and none from T5). Obviously there is still the type of passenger who loathes public transport and wants to get into a taxi as quickly as possible (still a fair walk from P6/7 at Paddington) but the usage case must have significantly diminished now.

Someone at my office did HeX to Paddington, then taxi to the office (near Liverpool Street). They were late to the meeting as a result.

They were from the US - so were very surprised about the Elizabeth line as we all told said - “Well that will teach you to take HeX“. They won’t next time.

But un scientific observations are HeX trains are very empty now and at T2&3 I get the impression more people wait for the Elizabeth line. Could be different in the peaks. But for the reasons you state in your post you can take your taxi further down the line where there is less traffic. That said - I lot of people don’t know about the other options and think it is HeX or nothing, (although using the same platforms helps) in the same way at Gatwick many people go straight for the express when quicker and better options (for some) exist such as Thameslink.

 

[dk1]

Someone at my office did HeX to Paddington, then taxi to the office (near Liverpool Street). They were late to the meeting as a result.

They were from the US - so were very surprised about the Elizabeth line as we all told said - “Well that will teach you to take HeX“. They won’t next time.

That just appears to show they may be very intelligent with a very good career but absolutely no common sense.

Should I be going to a meeting in a city in another country I would’ve done all my homework on transport options on arrival.

 

[Failed Unit]

That just appears to show they may be very intelligent with a very good career but absolutely no common sense.

Should I be going to a meeting in a city in another country I would’ve done all my homework on transport options on arrival.

Absolutely, I always ask the people at the local office recommendations about transport / hotels before I book the trip. People often forget about the tube to get from Heathow, but certain destinations in West London it will beat the HeX and Elizabeth line. (or be close enough that the premium isn’t worth paying)

My biggest fear now with the Elizabeth line when you are travelling during the peak from stations such as Farringdon or Liverpool Street is will you be able to get on board. They can be very cosy which shows how much the line was needed. (I am not sure if the tube is less busy now I haven’t noticed but the Central line has its own problems) The luggage versus commuters is already happening. One for a different thread but it does still give HeX / Taxi a bit of value. I never haven’t got on board.

I have learnt a few things however, like check the live departure boards at Finsbury Park. Getting to Farringdon to find out you need to return to the tube because of infrastructure issues in West London is irritating but avoidable. However normally when they occur it is wiping out the HeX as well so you are tubing it.

 

[dk1]

Absolutely, I always ask the people at the local office recommendations about transport / hotels before I book the trip. People often forget about the tube to get from Heathow, but certain destinations in West London it will beat the HeX and Elizabeth line. (or be close enough that the premium isn’t worth paying)

My biggest fear now with the Elizabeth line when you are travelling during the peak from stations such as Farringdon or Liverpool Street is will you be able to get on board. They can be very cosy which shows how much the line was needed. (I am not sure if the tube is less busy now I haven’t noticed but the Central line has its own problems) The luggage versus commuters is already happening. One for a different thread but it does still give HeX / Taxi a bit of value. I never haven’t got on board.

I have learnt a few things however, like check the live departure boards at Finsbury Park. Getting to Farringdon to find out you need to return to the tube because of infrastructure issues in West London is irritating but avoidable. However normally when they occur it is wiping out the HeX as well so you are tubing it.

I have heard it’s taken some pressure off the Central line and journey patterns have changes as a result to some mainline terminal commuter flows. However recent trips on the H&C/Circle have seen it as busy as ever but then it serves the likes of Baker St & Kings Cross.

 

[Failed Unit]

I have say with a number of people that were heading to Stratford on the Elizabeth line to change to other services there. I definitely thing that 4tph could be justified between Stratford and Heathrow T5.(extending an existing service from Paddington of course) - Although I understand this can’t be pathed at the moment.

 

[jfollows]

3 minute headways all over the place on the network. Its as low as 2 between Paddington and Reading in specific circumstances.

Attachment from https://sacuksprodnrdigital0001.blo...rational Rules/TPR 2024/V4/TPR 2024 V4 WW.pdf
2 minutes mainly Paddington to Reading, 3 minutes Reading to Didcot, 4 minutes Didcot to Uffington as I read it.

 

[Horizon22]

That said - I lot of people don’t know about the other options and think it is HeX or nothing, (although using the same platforms helps) in the same way at Gatwick many people go straight for the express when quicker and better options (for some) exist such as Thameslink.

Probably because HeX marketing is absoutely pasted across the terminals, it's pretty hard to find reference to Elizabeth line!

I have say with a number of people that were heading to Stratford on the Elizabeth line to change to other services there. I definitely thing that 4tph could be justified between Stratford and Heathrow T5.(extending an existing service from Paddington of course) - Although I understand this can’t be pathed at the moment.

The only way to do that would be remove a freight path (highly unlikely), remove another Relief line service (Thames Valley passengers will not be happy) or replace a HeX path (fast Paddington to Heathrow) but as @JN114 points out the 90mph 345s vs 125 line speed makes that hard to achieve, as does the crossing move at Ladbroke Grove and then you'd have to argue that is it a worthwhile use of the 4 paths per hour on the Main Line before we either talk about whether HAL want to relinquish anything - which as many people have said, they do not.

As a note, delays and congestion are increasingly common around Heathrow now, with 10tph into Platform 2/3 and a single line in and out of T4.

Until about 2030 at the earliest, I don't think anything much will change.

I have learnt a few things however, like check the live departure boards at Finsbury Park. Getting to Farringdon to find out you need to return to the tube because of infrastructure issues in West London is irritating but avoidable. However normally when they occur it is wiping out the HeX as well so you are tubing it.

I presume you mean Service Status "rainbow boards" for TfL? Yes very helpful when the latest infrastructure failure has reared its head on the GWML!

 

[TT-ONR-NRN]

HeX are incredibly anti OOC from what I hear.

I suppose it loses them the bragging rights to non-stop Paddington Heathrow, which is obviously a large marketing advantage over the Elizabeth line.

I just want to say to people in the thread saying HX is a waste of resources though, that I've taken it several times in the peaks when the 8-387 has been very busy...

 

[JN114]

I just want to say to people in the thread saying HX is a waste of resources though, that I've taken it several times in the peaks when the 8-387 has been very busy...

I was managing an incident involving their penultimate train of the night from Heathrow a few months back; the passenger count that came back from the driver, at well beyond 11pm scheduled time from Heathrow, was north of 300… The ex-Heathrow Elizabeth line train right behind it didn’t manage a sixth of that.

HEx peaks don’t coincide with railway peaks at all; with often the very earliest and very latest trains probably some of the busier ones of the day. Meanwhile I can well imagine at 1800 out of Paddington there only being 50-80 people onboard.

 

[Failed Unit]

The airlines do have surges of passengers arriving departing to certain destinations. Early afternoon seems to have lots of people from the West Coast of the USA for example, I notice a lot of East Asia flights are fairly early in the morning. Both outside traditional railway peaks.

To me it is the baggage space that is the selling point of the HeX. Elizabeth line has none. But the fact the Elizabeth line takes me to places I want to go it will always win. Others who prefer to take a Taxi will stick with Hex (there are a lot of them surprisingly)

 

[Horizon22]

The airlines do have surges of passengers arriving departing to certain destinations. Early afternoon seems to have lots of people from the West Coast of the USA for example, I notice a lot of East Asia flights are fairly early in the morning. Both outside traditional railway peaks.

The airlines will align with convenient times to fly overnight with regards to timezones, which means going East you can normally fly later and instead of arriving at say 0600, it's more like 1000. And also early morning slots (i.e as soon as departures open after the curfew) are well coveted. Of course dependent on distance although somewhere like Heathrow is probably more steady throughout the day because of the sheer number of destinations served.

 

[greatkingrat]

HeX are incredibly anti OOC from what I hear.

I suspect one of the reasons is it will make charging premium fares for Oyster/contactless very difficult. Presumably HEx won't have dedicated platforms at OOC so there will be no way of telling what train you used.

 

[JonathanH]

Presumably HEx won't have dedicated platforms at OOC so there will be no way of telling what train you used.

Just gate the mainline platforms separately from the relief line ones, although it does seem that it isn't really the market HEx would want to be serving if they are predominantly there for passengers getting into a taxi from Paddington.

 

[Wolfie]

Unfortunately an outcome of the "Heathrow premium" which the airport effectively placed on rail traffic, particularly for TfL as opposed to the expected zonal fare.

You could also say its the best of both worlds; cheaper than HeX but faster than the tube! Is your glass half full or empty haha.

God forbid that the airport might want a return on it's investment on the access tunnel.....

 

[Horizon22]

God forbid that the airport might want a return on it's investment on the access tunnel.....

Think they've got a lot of that return after 30+ years. Charging a premium for rail travellers is at odds with much of Europe. At some point it becomes "national infrastructure", although I do appeciate it invested a lot into building in the first place.

It's also cheeky when they're reliant on Network Rail to attend a lot of their faults; I hope NR bill them suitably!

 

[Class93]

Think they've got a lot of that return after 30+ years. Charging a premium for rail travellers is at odds with much of Europe. At some point it becomes "national infrastructure", although I do appeciate it invested a lot into building in the first place.

It's also cheeky when they're reliant on Network Rail to attend a lot of their faults; I hope NR bill them suitably!

At a cost of the tunnel which they took on fully under BAA in 1993 of £500m (including tunnel collapse etc) which today in simple inflation costs is £1.24bn. Even without that its £872m. I don’t think even with the astronomical fares HEX charge, they could get that much of a return. perhaps with the landing fees but still..

 

[Clarence Yard]

That’s the whole point of the tunnel and HEx. It’s on the RAB for the airport so they get their money through the fees from the airlines.

What they get from punters using the service is very much secondary.