New national restrictions in Wales

[yorksrob]

The Welsh Government has been on the Radio 4 news this morning and it seems that the firebreak lockdown hasn't worked there.

Government advisors across the UK really need to be thinking about human nature, and whether imposing periods of enforced isolation is counter-productive in that they cause people to react in the opposite direction when they're ended, or whether they should be encouraging consistent and sustainable behaviour through sustainable long term guidance.

 

[Smidster]

The Welsh Government has been on the Radio 4 news this morning and it seems that the firebreak lockdown hasn't worked there.

Government advisors across the UK really need to be thinking about human nature, and whether imposing periods of enforced isolation is counter-productive in that they cause people to react in the opposite direction when they're ended, or whether they should be encouraging consistent and sustainable behaviour through sustainable long term guidance.

It is interesting to see what is happening in Wales , and especially South Wales, where things are not going to plan at all.

7 of the top 10 areas with the highest case rates right now are in Wales

Unfortunately the mood music seems to be saying that rather than going for your approach the message is that they relaxed too much on reopening and will be going further in the opposite direction

 

[yorksrob]

It is interesting to see what is happening in Wales , and especially South Wales, where things are not going to plan at all.

7 of the top 10 areas with the highest case rates right now are in Wales

Unfortunately the mood music seems to be saying that rather than going for your approach the message is that they relaxed too much on reopening and will be going further in the opposite direction

Yes, the emphasis seems to be on repeating the same mistakes again and again.

 

[Mag_seven]

It is interesting to see what is happening in Wales , and especially South Wales, where things are not going to plan at all.

Oddly enough I remember that South Wales was a bit of a hot spot at the start of the pandemic in March.

 

[duncanp]

A Welsh minister swiped at William and Kate over their cross-Britain tour to thank frontline workers today - warning it must not be an 'excuse' for people to break coronavirus rules.

Health minister Vaughan Gething delivered a thinly-veiled rebuke to the royals after he was asked about their 48-hour rail trip stopping in England, Scotland and Wales.

Mr Gething told BBC Radio 4's Today programme: 'I'd rather that no-one was having unnecessary visits.'



He added: 'People have views about the monarchy. But their visit isn't an excuse for people to say they are confused about what they are being asked to do.'

Pressed on whether the royal couple should not be coming to Wales, he replied: 'I'm not particularly that bothered or interested.

'Because I don't think that is going to be an excuse for people to say, ''I should go and behave in a different way''.'

And now the Welsh health minister is taking a thoroughly pathetic swipe at William and Kate for coming to Wales on their tour of Britain.

What a nasty man he is, presumably throwing some mud at the Duke & Duchess of Cambridge in order to try and deflect attention from the utter failure of the Welsh government's so called "firebreak" lockdown.

 

[joncombe]

And now the Welsh health minister is taking a thoroughly pathetic swipe at William and Kate for coming to Wales on their tour of Britain.

What a nasty man he is, presumably throwing some mud at the Duke & Duchess of Cambridge in order to try and deflect attention from the utter failure of the Welsh government's so called "firebreak" lockdown.

Sturegon is also at it, suggesting that by coming to Scotland they may have broken Covid laws.

 

[rcro]

It does feel a bit like the same people who criticised “firebreak” being applied to slow infection rates are also criticising Wales for opening everything up and letting the rate increase. Whether you say it worked or not, and if it was worth the cost, the infection and death rates in Wales are currently lower than they would have been if they did nothing. Would you honestly not be finding fault if they left everything open, the infection rates soared to 2,000/100,000/week and all the hospitals claimed they were at breaking point?

The past is in the past and what matters now is that the best approach is taken going forward. I don’t know what Wales’s criteria is for allowing Christmas to go ahead - but I want them to decide that now, and what actions have to be taken now, rather than them leave things as they are and turn around in two weeks and say, “sorry, Christmas is cancelled this year.”

To be fair, Wales has been more consistent and open with it’s decision making on COVID - so it gets easier to predict in advance when interventions come in. *If* their goals are the same as before, then they *should* be tightening up further between now and 23rd Dec.

 

[yorksrob]

It does feel a bit like the same people who criticised “firebreak” being applied to slow infection rates are also criticising Wales for opening everything up and letting the rate increase. Whether you say it worked or not, and if it was worth the cost, the infection and death rates in Wales are currently lower than they would have been if they did nothing. Would you honestly not be finding fault if they left everything open, the infection rates soared to 2,000/100,000/week and all the hospitals claimed they were at breaking point?

The past is in the past and what matters now is that the best approach is taken going forward. I don’t know what Wales’s criteria is for allowing Christmas to go ahead - but I want them to decide that now, and what actions have to be taken now, rather than them leave things as they are and turn around in two weeks and say, “sorry, Christmas is cancelled this year.”

To be fair, Wales has been more consistent and open with it’s decision making on COVID - so it gets easier to predict in advance when interventions come in. *If* their goals are the same as before, then they *should* be tightening up further between now and 23rd Dec.

From my point of view, I'm not at all convinced that closing everything was the right thing to do then, and I'm not convinced it is now.

Who's to say that the increase in infection hasn't been caused by people popping around eachother's houses, infact the Minister seemed to imply as much in his interview. Yet shutting everything down seems to be their only response to anything.

 

[Dai Corner]

The Welsh Government has published the advice from their Technical Adisory Group which the Health Minister says 'reinforces the basis for their measures'

https://gov.wales/sites/default/files/publications/2020-12/technical-advisory-group-statement-regarding-non-pharmaceutical-interventions-in-the-pre-christmas-period.pdf

Partial quote below

Take home messages
 The virus spreads when an infected individual comes into contact with an uninfected individual(s). The likelihood of a contact between an infected individual and an uninfected individual resulting in a transmission is dependent upon the nature of the contact. Some environments and behaviours are more likely to enable the virus to transmit.
 Social distancing and quarantining remains highly effective at reducing the risk of infecting others, if observed correctly. Pre-isolating (e.g. not mixing outside of the household) for one incubation period (10 days) would be an effective way of lowering your risk of infecting others. Self-isolation remains of paramount importance for anyone with COVID-19 symptoms.
 The best way to protect older family members is not to expose them to potential infection, no matter how well-intended the reason for contact.
 Survey data suggests evidence of household-mixing with those outside of the extended household. This is accompanied by a misunderstanding of the risks of transmission associated with mixing. Evidence suggests that increased mixing of households and individuals in indoor settings poses a substantial risk of transmission. Therefore, the fewer households and individuals mix, the lower the risk of transmission, hospitalisation and deaths.
 Policy modelling illustrates that keeping Rt1 lower (e.g. by the reduction of social mixing of people generally) would significantly reduce numbers of expected deaths and pressure on the NHS.
 Policy modelling suggests that introducing the equivalent of Tier 3 restrictions (e.g. closure of hospitality and entertainment, reduction in mixing) prior to the relaxation of restrictions before Christmas will reduce the number of hospital and ICU beds required for COVID-19 patients, and subsequent deaths.

 

[WelshBluebird]

And now the Welsh health minister is taking a thoroughly pathetic swipe at William and Kate for coming to Wales on their tour of Britain.

What a nasty man he is, presumably throwing some mud at the Duke & Duchess of Cambridge in order to try and deflect attention from the utter failure of the Welsh government's so called "firebreak" lockdown.

To be fair - someone doing a national tour at a time like this does seem somewhat ill-timed.
Maybe they should wait until you know, the majority of people aren't having to deal with serious restrictions on their day to day lives.

 

[yorksrob]

The Welsh Government has published the advice from their Technical Adisory Group which the Health Minister says 'reinforces the basis for their measures'

https://gov.wales/sites/default/files/publications/2020-12/technical-advisory-group-statement-regarding-non-pharmaceutical-interventions-in-the-pre-christmas-period.pdf

Partial quote below

Take home messages
 The virus spreads when an infected individual comes into contact with an uninfected individual(s). The likelihood of a contact between an infected individual and an uninfected individual resulting in a transmission is dependent upon the nature of the contact. Some environments and behaviours are more likely to enable the virus to transmit.
 Social distancing and quarantining remains highly effective at reducing the risk of infecting others, if observed correctly. Pre-isolating (e.g. not mixing outside of the household) for one incubation period (10 days) would be an effective way of lowering your risk of infecting others. Self-isolation remains of paramount importance for anyone with COVID-19 symptoms.
 The best way to protect older family members is not to expose them to potential infection, no matter how well-intended the reason for contact.
 Survey data suggests evidence of household-mixing with those outside of the extended household. This is accompanied by a misunderstanding of the risks of transmission associated with mixing. Evidence suggests that increased mixing of households and individuals in indoor settings poses a substantial risk of transmission. Therefore, the fewer households and individuals mix, the lower the risk of transmission, hospitalisation and deaths.
 Policy modelling illustrates that keeping Rt1 lower (e.g. by the reduction of social mixing of people generally) would significantly reduce numbers of expected deaths and pressure on the NHS.
 Policy modelling suggests that introducing the equivalent of Tier 3 restrictions (e.g. closure of hospitality and entertainment, reduction in mixing) prior to the relaxation of restrictions before Christmas will reduce the number of hospital and ICU beds required for COVID-19 patients, and subsequent deaths.

Whilst I can see the point of most of these interventions, I have the same problem with the final bullet point that I have with the tier 3 measures in England.

Namely that the tier 3 restrictions i.e. the scapegoating of hospitality represents a very small proportion of overall transmission of the virus, rendering them far more damaging than they are helpful. The evidence for this is in the ONS and NHS England stats that suggest that hospitality amounts to 3 - 4% of infections (as opposed to in the home, care homes, work, school etc).

I note that the last bullet doesn't attempt to quantify this effect, which doesn't surprise me because it wouldn't stand up. Therefore, as far as I'm concerned, the tier 3 restrictions have no credibility.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

I think we will be lucky to get through to Christmas without more restrictions in Wales.
Rates are increasing fast and there are more people in hospital with Covid than at the peak in March/April.
For a long time, rates in Wales were less than in England, but no longer.
In my view, people have become careless (ie they don't care) about social distancing, while piling into shops doing Christmas shopping.
I'm not surprised Vaughan Gething is dismayed at events.

Across the border in Chester, my daughter, a teacher, is one of 15 staff who have tested positive for Covid, and the school has been closed for 2 weeks while all the staff isolate.
That's after getting through 9 months of the epidemic as key workers in small bubbles, without problems.
It's simply too early to be opening up socially, pretending the disease is diminishing.

 

[packermac]

And now the Welsh health minister is taking a thoroughly pathetic swipe at William and Kate for coming to Wales on their tour of Britain.

What a nasty man he is, presumably throwing some mud at the Duke & Duchess of Cambridge in order to try and deflect attention from the utter failure of the Welsh government's so called "firebreak" lockdown.

Did seem an "own goal" (I think the Royal Family do contribute to UK society), but when you are telling folks not to make unnecessary journeys or that you cannot visit Scotland or Wales without a valid reason.

 

[greyman42]

Did seem an "own goal" (I think the Royal Family do contribute to UK society), but when you are telling folks not to make unnecessary journeys or that you cannot visit Scotland or Wales without a valid reason.

They had a valid reason.

 

[duncanp]

To be fair - someone doing a national tour at a time like this does seem somewhat ill-timed.
Maybe they should wait until you know, the majority of people aren't having to deal with serious restrictions on their day to day lives.

But if they didn't go on the tour, the same old moaning minnies would be complaining about the royal family shirking their duties, and getting vast amounts of taxpayers money for doing very little.

Can't help thinking that the people in the Welsh and Scottish governments who are complaining about the tour have a hidden agenda, related to the elections next year.

As far as I am concerned, they had a valid reason for going to Scotland and Wales, and the governments in both these countries do not have the power to close the border.

 

[WelshBluebird]

But if they didn't go on the tour, the same old moaning minnies would be complaining about the royal family shirking their duties, and getting vast amounts of taxpayers money for doing very little.

Can't help thinking that the people in the Welsh and Scottish governments who are complaining about the tour have a hidden agenda, related to the elections next year.

As far as I am concerned, they had a valid reason for going to Scotland and Wales, and the governments in both these countries do not have the power to close the border.

I'm not talking about restrictions or valid reasons.
I'm just thinking about what looks good or not. Not arguing about what is legally the case or not.
Just at least in my eyes, doing a "national tour" of any kind when people are under the current restrictions looks pretty crass and ill-timed!

To give a non royal example - given relatively large socially distant gigs are now permitted again (cap of 1000 people indoors I believe - obviously socially distanced so to sell 1000 tickets you'd probs have to hold it in an arena normally holding many thousands more), a band or artist could do a national tour (or an international one - depending on countries and isolation periods etc) if they really wanted to. The reason that isn't happening is mainly because of cost - i.e. it would be expensive and not make nay money. But it would also look bad and probably be ill-timed - and indeed looking at the reaction to some of the events that happened in the summer, there was some of that similar reaction to those events.

 

[greyman42]

I'm just thinking about what looks good or not. Not arguing about what is legally the case or not.

So its just a matter of opinion. I do not think they are doing anything they should not be. If they had not gone to Wales then some people would of said "why are we being ignored".

 

[Pete_uk]

So the lockdown didn't work. Well, they will have to have another one in January.

 

[Smidster]

It does feel a bit like the same people who criticised “firebreak” being applied to slow infection rates are also criticising Wales for opening everything up and letting the rate increase. Whether you say it worked or not, and if it was worth the cost, the infection and death rates in Wales are currently lower than they would have been if they did nothing. Would you honestly not be finding fault if they left everything open, the infection rates soared to 2,000/100,000/week and all the hospitals claimed they were at breaking point?

The past is in the past and what matters now is that the best approach is taken going forward. I don’t know what Wales’s criteria is for allowing Christmas to go ahead - but I want them to decide that now, and what actions have to be taken now, rather than them leave things as they are and turn around in two weeks and say, “sorry, Christmas is cancelled this year.”

To be fair, Wales has been more consistent and open with it’s decision making on COVID - so it gets easier to predict in advance when interventions come in. *If* their goals are the same as before, then they *should* be tightening up further between now and 23rd Dec.

I agree with you to a point...but a part of that is to learn from mistakes and that might not be happening.

The fact that within 3 weeks of the "Firebreak" you are in a worse position than you were when it started would suggest that it really didn't work. Now we can argue about why it didn't work - was it the right measure just not for long enough? by closing everything did you push people to socialise at home in unsecured settings? have people got pandemic fatigue and stopped listening? or to quote the President "well it was a Christmas party!"

For me if you are doing the lockdown strategy, and I am not convinced it is the way to go, then 17 days was never going to be anywhere near enough to have an impact. It meant that the levels were still very high when you came out of it so it is no surprise that you are back in high growth immediately. This is why Christmas is a 3rd peak waiting to happen..it is not going to be pretty.

 

[bramling]

I think we will be lucky to get through to Christmas without more restrictions in Wales.
Rates are increasing fast and there are more people in hospital with Covid than at the peak in March/April.
For a long time, rates in Wales were less than in England, but no longer.
In my view, people have become careless (ie they don't care) about social distancing, while piling into shops doing Christmas shopping.
I'm not surprised Vaughan Gething is dismayed at events.

Across the border in Chester, my daughter, a teacher, is one of 15 staff who have tested positive for Covid, and the school has been closed for 2 weeks while all the staff isolate.
That's after getting through 9 months of the epidemic as key workers in small bubbles, without problems.
It's simply too early to be opening up socially, pretending the disease is diminishing.

I agree with you to a point...but a part of that is to learn from mistakes and that might not be happening.

The fact that within 3 weeks of the "Firebreak" you are in a worse position than you were when it started would suggest that it really didn't work. Now we can argue about why it didn't work - was it the right measure just not for long enough? by closing everything did you push people to socialise at home in unsecured settings? have people got pandemic fatigue and stopped listening? or to quote the President "well it was a Christmas party!"

For me if you are doing the lockdown strategy, and I am not convinced it is the way to go, then 17 days was never going to be anywhere near enough to have an impact. It meant that the levels were still very high when you came out of it so it is no surprise that you are back in high growth immediately. This is why Christmas is a 3rd peak waiting to happen..it is not going to be pretty.

I think whatever happens they need to stop having these “lockdown-lites”. They are utterly pointless. The England one just gone I think has actually made things worse, by simply compressing Christmas shopping into a short period. Shops and the like are now utterly rammed round my way.

 

[Bikeman78]

I think whatever happens they need to stop having these “lockdown-lites”. They are utterly pointless. The England one just gone I think has actually made things worse, by simply compressing Christmas shopping into a short period. Shops and the like are now utterly rammed round my way.

Cardiff is very busy now. People going to the city to do their Christmas shopping. Even the buses are quite busy around shopping hours now.

 

[tomwills98]

The firebreak lockdown did work as cases were starting to go on a downward trend, keeping cases low is a mix of how well the restrictions coming out are and how well people follow them. Firebreak should have been for four weeks rather than two, but Drakeford back himself into a corner guaranteeing that two week period.

The virus spreads from person to person and if people can't be trusted to stay apart the government needs to step in and shut up shop. People will complain if everything's rammed after getting opened back up, people will complain when everything's shut. The worst thing for any government to do is do nothing, which is why restrictions are coming back in. I'm quite surprised Gething hasn't thrown his papers up in the air and with a cry of "**** it" leaves us to our own devices.

I am looking forward to the inevitable rise of cases in England over Christmas and seeing everyone here rue about pubs/gyms/etc being closed down again.

For the Royals, it is a bit galling seeing them swan around the UK when some people are being told to stay at home and haven't seen loved ones in months.

 

[Bantamzen]

The firebreak lockdown did work as cases were starting to go on a downward trend, keeping cases low is a mix of how well the restrictions coming out are and how well people follow them. Firebreak should have been for four weeks rather than two, but Drakeford back himself into a corner guaranteeing that two week period.

The virus spreads from person to person and if people can't be trusted to stay apart the government needs to step in and shut up shop. People will complain if everything's rammed after getting opened back up, people will complain when everything's shut. The worst thing for any government to do is do nothing, which is why restrictions are coming back in. I'm quite surprised Gething hasn't thrown his papers up in the air and with a cry of "**** it" leaves us to our own devices.

I am looking forward to the inevitable rise of cases in England over Christmas and seeing everyone here rue about pubs/gyms/etc being closed down again.

For the Royals, it is a bit galling seeing them swan around the UK when some people are being told to stay at home and haven't seen loved ones in months.

I'm curious, how do expect people to stay apart? Short of shutting everything down, and that includes things like hospitals, shops, transport, people will & have to interact. Its a basic fact of life, as is viruses spreading regardless of political solutions to biological problems.

The sooner this reality comes back into focus, the sooner we can get back to the business of getting on with our lives whilst also protecting those that need it.

 

[yorksrob]

The firebreak lockdown did work as cases were starting to go on a downward trend, keeping cases low is a mix of how well the restrictions coming out are and how well people follow them. Firebreak should have been for four weeks rather than two, but Drakeford back himself into a corner guaranteeing that two week period.

The virus spreads from person to person and if people can't be trusted to stay apart the government needs to step in and shut up shop. People will complain if everything's rammed after getting opened back up, people will complain when everything's shut. The worst thing for any government to do is do nothing, which is why restrictions are coming back in. I'm quite surprised Gething hasn't thrown his papers up in the air and with a cry of "**** it" leaves us to our own devices.

I am looking forward to the inevitable rise of cases in England over Christmas and seeing everyone here rue about pubs/gyms/etc being closed down again.

For the Royals, it is a bit galling seeing them swan around the UK when some people are being told to stay at home and haven't seen loved ones in months.

Well, if you keep on shutting everything down every five minutes, what do you expect ? They're going to turn up as soon as things open again.

The sensible thing would have been to allow some limited level of socialising in controlled public settings, and maintained that. I'm in tier 3, and likely won't have the chance to rue pubs and restaurants closing down again, because they won't have been reopened in the first place.

 

[Crossover]

I am looking forward to the inevitable rise of cases in England over Christmas and seeing everyone here rue about pubs/gyms/etc being closed down again.

I'm not sure "looking forward to" is the words you are looking for there

For the Royals, it is a bit galling seeing them swan around the UK when some people are being told to stay at home and haven't seen loved ones in months.

Travel for work is allowed - they were travelling for purposes of work

 

[Cdd89]

Ah, the usual:

Restrictions introduced and cases rise = “people aren’t obeying by the rules”

Restrictions introduced and cases fall = “look how wonderfully my intervention worked”

The best thing is a drop is virtually guaranteed (based on the ebb and flow in regions that haven’t introduced significant restrictions), so as long as a politician can fiddle with the formula for long enough (every couple of weeks ideally) they are guaranteed a triumph.

 

[duncanp]

Ah, the usual:

Restrictions introduced and cases rise = “people aren’t obeying by the rules”

Restrictions introduced and cases fall = “look how wonderfully my intervention worked”

This seems to be what is happening in London, whereby people are being urged to "stick to the rules" otherwise London will end up in Tier 3.

Cases have started to rise again in London, as they have in parts of South Wales (eg, the rate in Neath Port Talbot is 646.1 in the seven days to 4th December, which represents an increase of 75% in a week)

But just as in London, it isn't necessarily the fault of people in Neath Port Talbot that this increase is taking place. The authorities need to look into the figures in more detail, and stop making the people scapegoats for the increase in cases.

 

[joncombe]

Secondary schools and colleges are to close in Wales on Friday presumably until the New Year.

Also rumors of a total ban on alcohol sales too (I.E. also in supermarkets) though I really do think there would be rioting if that happens! The Welsh Government has denied it.

 

[Richard Scott]

Secondary schools and colleges are to close in Wales on Friday presumably until the New Year.

Good to see they're considering the wellbeing and education of the youngsters again!

 

[Meole]

Good to see they're considering the wellbeing and education of the youngsters again!

education continues online