New national restrictions in Wales

[Richard Scott]

education continues online

Sorry, it's not very effective and kids need to be in school for their own mental well-being, I work in education so do know what I'm talking about.

 

[adc82140]

education continues online

As has been proven by the first lockdown, it doesn't.

Edit: What @Richard Scott said, and he's far more qualified to comment than I am.

 

[DB]

education continues online

Pretty poor substitute though, isn't it!

 

[Richard Scott]

Pretty poor substitute though, isn't it!

Probably what will happen is most won't bother and go out and meet their mates!

 

[Dai Corner]

Pretty poor substitute though, isn't it!

Having worked in a school, my experience is that little studying takes place in the last week of term. There is lots of video-watching, carol singing, disco-ing and the like.

Announcing the closure with a day's notice has at least meant teaching and learning has continued to the last but one day.

 

[Richard Scott]

Having worked in a school, my experience is that little studying takes place in the last week of term. There is lots of video-watching, carol singing, disco-ing and the like.

Announcing the closure with a day's notice has at least meant teaching and learning has continued to the last but one day.

In recent years not the case, maybe last one or two days but not whole week.

 

[Crossover]

In recent years not the case, maybe last one or two days but not whole week.

It also puts parents in an awkward position of dealing with additional childcare at short notice.

Has Drakeford et al really lost their mind now?!

 

[Butts]

Has "Darth Drakeford" lost the plot in Wales ?

He seems to be lurching from one disaster to another, "The Force does not seem to be with him"

Unfortunately he is completely lacking in charisma and comes across as The most boring Welshman since The late Geoffrey Howe - "savaged by a dead sheep" anyone ?

Glad I am resident in Scotland now and not Wales.

Not that our whingeing "Ayrshire Lass" is much better.

 

[Smidster]

So it now seems inevitable that Wales will go back into "Firebreak" from December 28th - If that isn't proof that it didn't work the first time round I don't know what would be.

Just as well the Virus has access to the Christian calendar and is planning a few days off for Christmas. If you were going to do something you should have done so weeks ago and run it right through to Christmas not wait till the horse has bolted.

 

[Richard Scott]

So it now seems inevitable that Wales will go back into "Firebreak" from December 28th - If that isn't proof that it didn't work the first time round I don't know what would be.

Politicians just don't have a clue do they? All they're doing now is that didn't work so we need more of it. I have no time for any if them. Nothing remotely scientific in their actions and all they're doing is wrecking people's businesses and mental well-being. Viruses do what viruses do, firebreak or not. They just can't grasp this.

 

[PHILIPE]

In the FMs brief today regarding COVID some obvious Remoaner decided to ask a question about Brexit

 

[krus_aragon]

So the lockdown didn't work. Well, they will have to have another one in January.

That's what I was expecting back in October. I interpreted the October firebreak as an attempt to tamp numbers down enough to make it as far as Christmas, with the implication that we'd be doing another one afterward, before schools reopened. If you want to keep schools open, you have to make your interventions during the school holidays.

While the firebreak worked (in the sense that numbers did drop through early November), it didn't work well enough to get us through to January. The college I work has decided that both next week and the first week of January will be taught remotely, trying to preempt future WG decisions in that regard. (They may have had a high-level briefing on that, for all I know.)

 

[PHILIPE]

That's what I was expecting back in October. I interpreted the October firebreak as an attempt to tamp numbers down enough to make it as far as Christmas, with the implication that we'd be doing another one afterward, before schools reopened. If you want to keep schools open, you have to make your interventions during the school holidays.

While the firebreak worked (in the sense that numbers did drop through early November), it didn't work well enough to get us through to January. The college I work has decided that both next week and the first week of January will be taught remotely, trying to preempt future WG decisions in that regard. (They may have had a high-level briefing on that, for all I know.)

Actually they need one NOW with the rapid rise in new cases

 

[Dai Corner]

Actually they need one NOW with the rapid rise in new cases

The rise isn't quite as rapid as the 'new cases per 100,000' headline figures suggest.

See this tweet from a former NSO statistician

https://twitter.com/statsjamie/status/1337404054981447680?s=21

In the 7 days to 07 December there were 69,250 Covid-19 tests carried out in Wales. This was 75% higher than the number of tests carried out in the 7 days to 13 November.

This is a critical factor in the rapid rise in cases per 100k in Wales the past 3 weeks.

The positivity rate (% of tests coming back positive) has been increasing but not as much and gives a better indication as to how much the virus is increasing outside of increased testing

 

[krus_aragon]

Actually they need one NOW with the rapid rise in new cases

Arguably so. (Though things are relatively calm in my corner of the world, that's definitely not the case nationwide.)

But I was only guessing at a January sequel back in October.

 

[Richard Scott]

Arguably so. (Though things are relatively calm in my corner of the world, that's definitely not the case nationwide.)

But I was only guessing at a January sequel back in October.

No we don't, figures were about 370 in 100,000 people that means 1 in 270 have it or have tested positive for it. Not what I'd call a big problem. People need to really start looking critically at statistics. If we keep having lockdowns/firebreaks or whatever you want to call them you'll just crucify some people's livelihoods and mental wellbeing. Still seems this is a one horse race in some people's eyes, it really isn't. They still bleat on about hospitals being overwhelmed, possibly, isn't it the same this time of year anyway?

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

The web site that produces Welsh Covid stats is being changed this weekend, and there will be several days of distorted numbers (and none tomorrow Sun 13th).
Just when everybody is sweating on the trends, good or bad.
Bad today - 2443 new cases, highest daily total ever.
Rapid COVID-19 virology - Public - Public Health Wales Health Protection | Tableau Public

 

[DB]

Bad today - 2443 new cases, highest daily total ever.

But what is that as a percentage of the total tests on the day?

Too many of these shouty headline figures ignore the basic fact that if you test more, you will find more.

 

[Dai Corner]

The web site that produces Welsh Covid stats is being changed this weekend, and there will be several days of distorted numbers (and none tomorrow Sun 13th).
Just when everybody is sweating on the trends, good or bad.
Bad today - 2443 new cases, highest daily total ever.
Rapid COVID-19 virology - Public - Public Health Wales Health Protection | Tableau Public

And even once they're back up and running the timeliness will be worse, with a four day lag instead two days according to the small print in red at the bottom of the page.

 

[adc82140]

Politicians just don't have a clue do they? All they're doing now is that didn't work so we need more of it. I have no time for any if them. Nothing remotely scientific in their actions and all they're doing is wrecking people's businesses and mental well-being. Viruses do what viruses do, firebreak or not. They just can't grasp this.

People often quote Sweden as a example of how things should be done. I disagree. We should be looking to South Korea. They have had a large case increase over the last few days. Are they locking down? No. They are pouring resources in to testing and tracing on a hyper local level.

 

[Kite159]

People often quote Sweden as a example of how things should be done. I disagree. We should be looking to South Korea. They have had a large case increase over the last few days. Are they locking down? No. They are pouring resources in to testing and tracing on a hyper local level.

Isn't it a case in South Korea that you need to have the app installed on your phone?

Also a different culture, I doubt many South Koreans will be signing into places giving their names as "M Mouse" or false details.

 

[island]

The 1st minister told BBC News earlier that “there is a danger the NHS turns into the National Coronavirus Service”.

I thought that was already the case.

 

[DB]

The 1st minister told BBC News earlier that “there is a danger the NHS turns into the National Coronavirus Service”.

I thought that was already the case.

Indeed, and the governments have all turned into the coronavirus task force! Nothing else seems to be of importance to them now.

 

[johntea]

Wales aren’t even waiting until January, just announced all non-essential retail in Wales and close contact services like hairdressers and nail bars, leisure and fitness centres must close at the end of trading on Christmas Eve

Also after the relaxation period for household mixing between 23-27 December, Wales will go into a level four lockdown on 28 December where "tighter restrictions for household mixing, staying at home, holiday accommodation and travel will apply".

 

[NorthOxonian]

Wales aren’t even waiting until January, just announced all non-essential retail in Wales and close contact services like hairdressers and nail bars, leisure and fitness centres must close at the end of trading on Christmas Eve

Also after the relaxation period for household mixing between 23-27 December, Wales will go into a level four lockdown on 28 December where "tighter restrictions for household mixing, staying at home, holiday accommodation and travel will apply".

Have they announced an end date to their planned lockdown, or is it indefinite?

 

[Smidster]

Have they announced an end date to their planned lockdown, or is it indefinite?

There is no end date...it will be reviewed after 3 weeks. If they are doing this route then it must last until at least February

I think this decision significantly increases the risk of Christmas in Wales - People who are facing increased restrictions on Boxing Day onward are much more likely to take risks in the run up to that date. They have the chance to see family / friends for a last time for the foreseeable future and you have to expect they will take it.

 

[kristiang85]

So the original Welsh lockdown was to ensure there are no further lockdowns, yet they are going down the lockdown route again? It's madness.

At this rate, Wales might as well put into law that their entire country will lockdown between November and February each and every year, forever.

 

[Dai Corner]

The decision appears to have been made without the relevant public health information

https://twitter.com/publichealthw/status/1339225042165620739?s=21

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

So the original Welsh lockdown was to ensure there are no further lockdowns, yet they are going down the lockdown route again? It's madness.
At this rate, Wales might as well put into law that their entire country will lockdown between November and February each and every year, forever.

No, the 17-day firebreak was to get to Christmas without further restrictions - which has just about happened.
I think there was always an expectation that more action would be needed in January until the warmer weather arrived.
It's hard, but I don't see what else the WG could do.
Lower rates might allow some areas to relax earlier than others, but currently rates continue to climb everywhere.
South Wales (Newport-Merthyr-Swansea triangle) is still markedly higher than other areas.

 

[HSTEd]

People often quote Sweden as a example of how things should be done. I disagree. We should be looking to South Korea. They have had a large case increase over the last few days. Are they locking down? No. They are pouring resources in to testing and tracing on a hyper local level.

They also have a vestigal police state apparatus

A large part of the population of South Korea remember when people who questioned the state simply dissapeared.

Or were openly gunned down by government troops.