Northern to London - could it work?

[Philip]

I know FNW tried a London service & failed but this was planned poorly (DMU, truncated route etc) and was in a different era. In this current time of cheap advance tickets and people wanting to save as much as they can on rail journeys, could Northern make a Manchester-London service viable? If so and with perhaps 3 trains per day each way operated with 6-car 331s, how does this look as a route?

Manchester Oxford Road/Victoria
Newton-le-Willows
Crewe
Northampton
Bletchley
Bushey
London Euston/Marylebone

Would this strike a good balance between a reasonable journey time, without abstracting fares from other TOCs?

 

[Russel]

Crewe to Euston via Northampton with LNWR is just under 3 hours, add another 45 minutes to get from Manchester to Crewe and you're talking almost 4 hours...

This would be the one service where Northern cancelling every other train would be doing the passengers a favour!

Just wait until a 331 gets substituted by a 323, or a couple of 150s.

Now, excuse me, I need a stiff drink after thinking about this journey!

 

[The Planner]

So apart from filling in Newton le Willows to Crewe, what does it provide that another TOC isn't already providing? Suggest you get a map as well, as how are you getting to Marylebone?

 

[30907]

I know FNW tried a London service & failed but this was planned poorly (DMU, truncated route etc) and was in a different era. In this current time of cheap advance tickets and people wanting to save as much as they can on rail journeys, could Northern make a Manchester-London service viable? If so and with perhaps 3 trains per day each way operated with 6-car 331s, how does this look as a route?

Manchester Oxford Road/Victoria
Newton-le-Willows
Crewe
Northampton
Bletchley
Bushey
London Euston/Marylebone

Would this strike a good balance between a reasonable journey time, without abstracting fares from other TOCs?

Leaving aside the random pattern of Ryanair-style stops (Bushey for Watford I presume - you could try Kings Langley for the M25 instead?), your main problem is that neither Oxford Road nor Victoria has the capacity for terminating trains from the West. You could, I suppose, reverse there and run to Bolton, which might tap a real market as well.

 

[RobShipway]

As @Russel states, the journey I suspect would be too long for such a service. The other question I would ask, is what stock that Northern has would be used for the service? Again, you would not want either class 331 or 323 substituting whatever stock is used on the service. You would also want it to be stock that could do 110mph, so that it can keep out of the way of the LNWR/WMT services. If you are planning on using the fast lines on the West Coast mainline, then the train should be 125mph capable. Does Northern have 125mph capable stock?

The only stock available for either 110mph or 125mph is the Trans Pennine Express Nova 3 Mark 5A coaching stock. But what locomotive do you get to power the coaching stock as the class 68 can only do up to 100mph? The only answer I can see to this would be that Northern use either Scotrail class 43 and MK3 coaches if any spare and available or use the GWR sets when they become available. Failing that you are looking at either Colas Rail or RailAdventure class 43 power cars, but then you have to finding coaching stock that will work with these power units. The only other answer would be the purchase of brand new Hitachi AT300 bi-mode trains or CAF Civity units similar to either class 397 or the recent order of units by LNER for Tri-mode units.

 

[The Planner]

As @Russel states, the journey I suspect would be too long for such a service. The other question I would ask, is what stock that Northern has would be used for the service? Again, you would not want either class 331 or 323 substituting whatever stock is used on the service. You would also want it to be stock that could do 110mph, so that it can keep out of the way of the LNWR/WMT services. If you are planning on using the fast lines on the West Coast mainline, then the train should be 125mph capable. Does Northern have 125mph capable stock?

The only stock available for either 110mph or 125mph is the Trans Pennine Express Nova 3 Mark 5A coaching stock. But what locomotive do you get to power the coaching stock as the class 68 can only do up to 100mph? The only answer I can see to this would be that Northern use either Scotrail class 43 and MK3 coaches if any spare and available or use the GWR sets when they become available. Failing that you are looking at either Colas Rail or RailAdventure class 43 power cars, but then you have to finding coaching stock that will work with these power units. The only other answer would be the purchase of brand new Hitachi AT300 bi-mode trains or CAF Civity units similar to either class 397 or the recent order of units by LNER for Tri-mode units.

People get hung up over the speed required. There is no way on earth this would be running fast lines so 110/125 isn't necessarily the deal breaker. 100mph on the slows wouldn't be an issue.

 

[RobShipway]

People get hung up over the speed required. There is no way on earth this would be running fast lines so 110/125 isn't necessarily the deal breaker. 100mph on the slows wouldn't be an issue.

But you still have the issue of the stock to be used for such a journey? Where if there was a problem with the stock after having left the North could it be taken, to be repaired?

 

[Bald Rick]

It woudl be open access. Normal rules apply. And there’s no space on the WCML.

 

[The Planner]

But you still have the issue of the stock to be used for such a journey? Where if there was a problem with the stock after having left the North could it be taken, to be repaired?

That is down to Phillip to answer. Same applies to any TOC though.

 

[Failed Unit]

Wasn't the original service forced to stop because of Virgin's competition protection at the time?

Personally if there was really demand, I would prefer to see it filled by Avanti using marginal time to some other the other Northern towns. If you want a longer trip to Manchester at a cheaper price, this is already possible with split tickets such as via Sheffield or London Midland.

Maybe when the bi-modes arrive Avanti may try a 1 per day service to Huddersfield or Preston (via Bolton)

 

[61653 HTAFC]

Wasn't the original service forced to stop because of Virgin's competition protection at the time?

Personally if there was really demand, I would prefer to see it filled by Avanti using marginal time to some other the other Northern towns. If you want a longer trip to Manchester at a cheaper price, this is already possible with split tickets such as via Sheffield or London Midland.

Maybe when the bi-modes arrive Avanti may try a 1 per day service to Huddersfield or Preston (via Bolton)

It was unsuccessful because it was unable to serve more significant stations, which was due to Virgin's competition protection.

Nobody has yet been able to explain why or how Virgin had this level of protection when other operators (GNER and their successors) didn't, but that's for another discussion.

 

[yorksrob]

Providing a service with bargain walk-up fares is certainly desirable.

Wouldn't the easiest way be to extend the LNWR Crewe terminator to Piccadilly ?

 

[Neptune]

Nobody has yet been able to explain why or how Virgin had this level of protection when other operators (GNER and their successors) didn't, but that's for another discussion.

It was due to the WCRM.

Taken from Wikipedia which although not the best source is actually pretty much correct in this case:-

Moderation of competition​

As a way of protecting the revenues of Virgin Trains to enable it to pay franchise premiums to the government to partly recoup the cost of the West Coast Main Line upgrade, the Office of Rail Regulation inserted a Moderation of Competition in Virgin's Track Access Agreement. Until its expiry in March 2012, this prevented any other train operating or open access companies operating services in competition that would abstract revenue.

 

[Philip]

That is down to Phillip to answer. Same applies to any TOC though.

Bearing in mind this is a speculative question, but aren't there going to be 350/2s available once LNR/WMT receive their new EMUs, or have these been snapped up by someone else?

I thought there was a link from the WCML to Marylebone, but if not then the service would have to go into Euston. If Bushey was scrapped & the train ran non-stop Northampton-London, where would be a good place to call as a substitute - Nuneaton?

Serving Bolton would be a bigger catchment, but I suggested Newton because it would save on journey times. Perhaps once Westhoughton is electrified with faster speeds then the best option would be from Oxford Road/Victoria to Bolton & then reverse (but not stop) at Wigan. You could use platform 3 at Oxford Road if it's only 3 or 4 trains per day each way. Surely the WCML isn't so full that it can't accomodate an extra 4 trains per day, each way?

 

[DanNCL]

The only stock available for either 110mph or 125mph is the Trans Pennine Express Nova 3 Mark 5A coaching stock. But what locomotive do you get to power the coaching stock as the class 68 can only do up to 100mph?

There’s a number of 90s available, not sure how difficult it would be to modify those to work with Mark 5As. Probably not the easiest task in the world but surely not impossible.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Can't see any sense in Northern doing this. I can see sense in extending the LNR Crewe to either Liverpool or Manchester (in the latter case it could take the path of a Northern service), but this could prove too popular and cause severe overcrowding impacting people who have no other services i.e. the Trent Valley local stations.

 

[43096]

There’s a number of 90s available, not sure how difficult it would be to modify those to work with Mark 5As. Probably not the easiest task in the world but surely not impossible.

If it would need 110mph stock, then the 350/2s would be the obvious choice once they are off-leased from LNR.

 

[Iskra]

Providing a service with bargain walk-up fares is certainly desirable.

Wouldn't the easiest way be to extend the LNWR Crewe terminator to Piccadilly ?

This. Or Northern could just do a ticket offer with LNWR.

 

[jfollows]

Can't see any sense in Northern doing this. I can see sense in extending the LNR Crewe to either Liverpool or Manchester (in the latter case it could take the path of a Northern service), but this could prove too popular and cause severe overcrowding impacting people who have no other services i.e. the Trent Valley local stations.

The two Northern services are

1. All stations from Crewe to Manchester via Stockport
2. Three stations to Wilmslow, then all stations via Styal and Manchester Airport

neither of which would fit all that well, but my consideration would primarily be that they'd wreck the reliability of the stopping services by importing delays from the rest of the WCML. Don't get me wrong, I'd like a through LNR service from Wilmslow but it doesn't sound like a good idea to mix with the stopping service in my area.

EDIT We've only just got over the disaster of the 2018 timetable with imported delays from Castlefield for the local services!

 

[Neptune]

I know FNW tried a London service & failed but this was planned poorly (DMU, truncated route etc) and was in a different era.

To give a little context to the services FNW had 2 different services. Rochdale to Euston using 158’s and Manchester Airport to Euston using 322’s. The 158’s used were 757-759 which had a small 16 seat first class area fitted which was the normal seats given the NSE FC moquette partitioned off at one end. The 322’s were from the whole pool with 484 & 485 repainted in FNW livery. In those days they had 2+2 seating throughout. They ceased due to the fact they were poorly used but also they were cut due to WCRM starting in earnest which included long closures of parts of the WCML.

In this current time of cheap advance tickets and people wanting to save as much as they can on rail journeys, could Northern make a Manchester-London service viable? If so and with perhaps 3 trains per day each way operated with 6-car 331s, how does this look as a route?

Manchester Oxford Road/Victoria
Newton-le-Willows
Crewe
Northampton
Bletchley
Bushey
London Euston/Marylebone

Would this strike a good balance between a reasonable journey time, without abstracting fares from other TOCs?

We had a thread regarding Newark and OAO in a recent thread and it ended up feeling like the only reason it was suggested was to bring some variety to the station for the enthusiasts.

This feels very similar. No detail as to why apart from cheap fares and a list of random stops and units that would be used including possibly Marylebone which doesn’t have the capability to have 331’s running into it. This fact alone means that the whole thing is ill thought out.

Most of the questions have been asked as to why, how etc…. None have been answered so I suspect it’s another vague and ill thought out ‘idea’, this time based on a service that failed 25 years ago.

Can't see any sense in Northern doing this. I can see sense in extending the LNR Crewe to either Liverpool or Manchester (in the latter case it could take the path of a Northern service), but this could prove too popular and cause severe overcrowding impacting people who have no other services i.e. the Trent Valley local stations.

But why can you see sense in LNR extending the Crewe service? By saying extending it to Manchester or Liverpool means that there isn’t actually a definitive reason to extend it other than an allergy to the buffer stops at Crewe.

If replacing a Manchester stopper apart from importing delays you also mention it being popular and causing severe overcrowding. So no use whatsoever to the people from Cheshire trying to use their local service if it’s always full of end to end passengers. Sounds like a great advert for the car for them. The negatives seem to dwarf any of the positives which haven’t actually been included in the idea of extending the Crewe service.

Why is Crewe deemed to be a bad terminating point for the slowest service from Euston?

 

[paul1609]

Northerns parent company already operates trains to London via it's London North Eastern subsidiary, why not merge the companies in to one TOC?

 

[dk1]

Northerns parent company already operates trains to London via it's London North Eastern subsidiary, why not merge the companies in to one TOC?

That would make things rather difficult when franchising out again. They don’t really go hand in hand.

 

[Neptune]

Northerns parent company already operates trains to London via it's London North Eastern subsidiary, why not merge the companies in to one TOC?

It’s not that simple and doing so just because of a suggestion for Northern to run a service to London is a poor reason.

 

[D365]

But you still have the issue of the stock to be used for such a journey? Where if there was a problem with the stock after having left the North could it be taken, to be repaired?

The Class 350/2s, currently based out of Northampton, may soon be going spare...

But... as has been pointed out above... there is already a LNR service operating to Crewe.

 

[dk1]

The Class 350/2s, currently based in Northampton, may soon be going spare...

I was under the impression 50 were being retained.

 

[Neptune]

I was under the impression 50 were being retained.

Yes the retained units are the 30 x 350/1 and 10 each of /3 & /4 sub classes.

The 37 x 350/2’s are coming off lease.

 

[A S Leib]

If so and with perhaps 3 trains per day each way operated with 6-car 331s, how does this look as a route?

At three trains per day the overwhelming amount of people would likely stick with Avanti or TfW + LNR from Crewe.

Manchester Oxford Road/Victoria
Newton-le-Willows
Crewe
Northampton
Bletchley
Bushey
London Euston/Marylebone

Pick up / set down only at Bushey, presumably? Linking Bushey to Marylebone really isn't practical though; it's 70 minutes with a reversal without building any new lines, or 15-20 to Euston.

I don't know if it's necessarily a reason by itself not to do it, but it also seems too different to any other Northern service. Excluding the few cases of services being combined (e.g. the once a week Nottingham – Carlisle), Northern doesn't have any services longer than ~2:40; the only current TOCs which have local, interregional and intercity services are GWR (and ScotRail if you count Edinburgh / Glasgow – Aberdeen / Inverness as intercity).

For both of those their long-distance services are part of a larger group and are more geographically self-contained (again, not a reason not to do your suggestion by itself, as e.g. Norwich and Liverpool are a fair way from the East Midlands core, but it doesn't help the case for it).

 

[yorksrob]

This. Or Northern could just do a ticket offer with LNWR.

Yes, that could work. You'd still have to change at Crewe, so it might avoid too many end to end passengers piling on.

To give a little context to the services FNW had 2 different services. Rochdale to Euston using 158’s and Manchester Airport to Euston using 322’s. The 158’s used were 757-759 which had a small 16 seat first class area fitted which was the normal seats given the NSE FC moquette partitioned off at one end. The 322’s were from the whole pool with 484 & 485 repainted in FNW livery. In those days they had 2+2 seating throughout. They ceased due to the fact they were poorly used but also they were cut due to WCRM starting in earnest which included long closures of parts of the WCML.

We had a thread regarding Newark and OAO in a recent thread and it ended up feeling like the only reason it was suggested was to bring some variety to the station for the enthusiasts.

This feels very similar. No detail as to why apart from cheap fares and a list of random stops and units that would be used including possibly Marylebone which doesn’t have the capability to have 331’s running into it. This fact alone means that the whole thing is ill thought out.

Most of the questions have been asked as to why, how etc…. None have been answered so I suspect it’s another vague and ill thought out ‘idea’, this time based on a service that failed 25 years ago.

But why can you see sense in LNR extending the Crewe service? By saying extending it to Manchester or Liverpool means that there isn’t actually a definitive reason to extend it other than an allergy to the buffer stops at Crewe.

If replacing a Manchester stopper apart from importing delays you also mention it being popular and causing severe overcrowding. So no use whatsoever to the people from Cheshire trying to use their local service if it’s always full of end to end passengers. Sounds like a great advert for the car for them. The negatives seem to dwarf any of the positives which haven’t actually been included in the idea of extending the Crewe service.

Cheap walk on fares and not having to plan your life several weeks in advance.

That's what a lot of people want and that's what the industry and Government seem determined not to provide.

Northerns parent company already operates trains to London via it's London North Eastern subsidiary, why not merge the companies in to one TOC?

It's all about the fares. If the LNER leg remains a choice of "very expensive walk-on fare" or "plan weeks in advance" it won't make any difference to passengers.

 

[RobShipway]

The Class 350/2s, currently based out of Northampton, may soon be going spare...

But... as has been pointed out above... there is already a LNR service operating to Crewe.

I think it better to extend the LNR service to Manchester Piccadilly/Liverpool Lime Street, maybe having a train every other hour to both stations. But I think you would have to incorporate the LNR/WMT Birmingham New Street - Liverpool Lime Street services. To do this service, LNR/WMT will either need more 730/2 trains or retain the class 350/2 units and use the 730/2 on these services.

 

[Neptune]

Cheap walk on fares and not having to plan your life several weeks in advance.

That's what a lot of people want and that's what the industry and Government seem determined not to provide.

Ok so how much would you project the ticket price could be realistically bearing in mind you’ve just made Northern commit to leasing extra stock, paying extra staff, paying more track access charges and requiring a return on the investment. Will planning around 3 trains per day as suggested meet the requirements of all these people who want the lower prices and not having to plan weeks in advance.

I think it better to extend the LNR service to Manchester Piccadilly/Liverpool Lime Street, maybe having a train every other hour to both stations.

I ask again why do these services need extending beyond Crewe. Nobody can come up with a good enough reason other than what seems to be an aversion to terminating at Crewe.