Northern to London - could it work?

[RobShipway]

Ok so how much would you project the ticket price could be realistically bearing in mind you’ve just made Northern commit to leasing extra stock, paying extra staff, paying more track access charges and requiring a return on the investment. Will planning around 3 trains per day as suggested meet the requirements of all these people who want the lower prices and not having to plan weeks in advance.

I ask again why do these services need extending beyond Crewe. Nobody can come up with a good enough reason other than what seems to be an aversion to terminating at Crewe.

It gives passengers more choice, other than changing at say Birmingham New Street to get another train to Liverpool Lime Street. The price of a service from LNR would be more of a cost that people can afford, more so than the cost of train tickets with Avanti West Coast. I am also thinking that a service going straight from Euston to Liverpool Lime Street would also be easier for the disabled to access with LNR, than the class 390, 805 or 807 with AWC.

You already have services that go from either Rugby or Northampton or Birmingham to Crewe. You also have services that travel London Euston to Birmingham New Street, so I would have thought that it would be more cost effective to combine these services with those that travel onwards to Liverpool Lime Street and extend the services from Birmingham New Street from Crewe to Manchester Piccadilly.

 

[The Planner]

You already have services that go from either Rugby or Northampton or Birmingham to Crewe. You also have services that travel London Euston to Birmingham New Street, so I would have thought that it would be more cost effective to combine these services with those that travel onwards to Liverpool Lime Street and extend the services from Birmingham New Street from Crewe to Manchester Piccadilly.

Because that went really well when LNWR/WMT did it a few years back! Nothing goes from Northampton to Crewe apart from two trains at the start of service as its convenient for getting them off Kings Heath. Northampton currently has an 8 minute connection into the Crewe at Rugby.

 

[43074]

It gives passengers more choice, other than changing at say Birmingham New Street to get another train to Liverpool Lime Street. The price of a service from LNR would be more of a cost that people can afford, more so than the cost of train tickets with Avanti West Coast. I am also thinking that a service going straight from Euston to Liverpool Lime Street would also be easier for the disabled to access with LNR, than the class 390, 805 or 807 with AWC.

A 2 hourly service alternating between one or other isn't going to any difference to the amount of choice people have when there are 2 (fast) trains per hour from Crewe to Liverpool or Manchester as a rule anyway, plus Northern stopping services. Solution looking for a problem.

 

[jfollows]

Because that went really well when LNWR/WMT did it a few years back! Nothing goes from Northampton to Crewe apart from two trains at the start of service as its convenient for getting them off Kings Heath.

Exactly, it was one of the (at least) two major timetabling disasters of recent years - Birmingham is a black hole and delays anything, the other one being Manchester Castlefield of course. What works on paper has to be tempered with reality, and plenty of people here warned about the dangers of both attempts at the time.

 

[yorksrob]

Ok so how much would you project the ticket price could be realistically bearing in mind you’ve just made Northern commit to leasing extra stock, paying extra staff, paying more track access charges and requiring a return on the investment. Will planning around 3 trains per day as suggested meet the requirements of all these people who want the lower prices and not having to plan weeks in advance.

I ask again why do these services need extending beyond Crewe. Nobody can come up with a good enough reason other than what seems to be an aversion to terminating at Crewe.

I seem to recall that LNWR do an off-peak return for around £45 from Crewe to London. Maybe add on another fiver for the extra bit to Manc.

They also have some units about to go off-lease, so have some stock that could go towards it.

Also, the routes between Crewe and Piccadilly don't seem too overstretched for capacity either.

 

[bspahh]

This seems to follow Betteridge's law of headlines:

Betteridge's law of headlines is an adage that states: "Any headline that ends in a question mark can be answered by the word no."

 

[gg1]

Why Bushey? If you're looking at southern WCML stations not served by Avanti, either Harrow & Wealdstone (much better London connections) or Hemel Hempstead (the largest settlement on the southern WCML with no services to anywhere north of MK) would IMO be better options.

 

[YorkRailFan]

One I could see working is if LNER launches a Huddersfield-London service that they're rumored to begin at some point, or GC could get in first (doubt it).

 

[Philip]

That is down to Phillip to answer. Same applies to any TOC though.

Bearing in mind this is a speculative question, but if there are going to be 350/2s available once LNR/WMT receive their new EMUs, what would be wrong with using these?

I thought there was a link from the WCML to Marylebone, but if not then the service would have to go into Euston. If Bushey was scrapped & the train ran non-stop Northampton-London, where would be a good place to call as a substitute - Nuneaton?

Serving Bolton would be a bigger catchment, but I suggested Newton because it would save on journey times. Perhaps once Westhoughton is electrified with faster speeds then the best option would be from Oxford Road/Victoria to Bolton & then reverse (but not stop) at Wigan. You could use platform 3 at Oxford Road if it's only 3 or 4 trains per day each way. Surely the WCML isn't so full that it can't accommodate an extra 4 trains per day, each way?

 

[Sad Sprinter]

I suggested recently a TPEX service to Euston. At least that would provide ManVic, Huddersfield and Dewsbury with a London service so would be more useful. As well as a Crewe/MK to Leeds connection - plus they have the stock for it as well. But as TPEX can't run their core services at the moment it's never going to happen. Would be "cool" though.

Although to be more speculative, how about Northern to Blackpool North? Calling at Euston, Tame Bridge Parkway, Crewe, Winford, Preston and Blackpool?

 

[skyhigh]

One I could see working is if LNER launches a Huddersfield-London service that they're rumored to begin at some point

It wasn't a rumour, it would have been an extension of existing Leeds services. It went as far as training runs but then Covid happened and it got put on hold.

Not sure what the connection is with the suggested low cost service operated by someone new is though.

 

[Neptune]

I seem to recall that LNWR do an off-peak return for around £45 from Crewe to London. Maybe add on another fiver for the extra bit to Manc.

Just looking randomly an OP return is coming up at £50.20. Can I ask how you’ve calculated the ‘extra fiver’ Crewe to Manchester please or have you plucked a number out of the sky? Bear in mind the cost of setting it up regardless of which TOC would work it would need to be recouped somehow (additional staff, additional rolling stock, training costs, track access charges). I think your £50.20 would be going up for a start.

They also have some units about to go off-lease, so have some stock that could go towards it.

As mentioned this would be a cost above what is budgeted. Bear in mind the reason why the 350/2’s are being handed back.

I know you really hate it when costs are put up as reasons to push back but this would be a business decision regardless of what you think, it needs to make money to make improvements. The large additional costs would have to be recouped and if they can’t be then they aren’t going to do it. Crewe is not the worst place to change trains.

Also, the routes between Crewe and Piccadilly don't seem too overstretched for capacity either.

Have you accounted for freight in this capacity? I’m no expert on this route but I’m sure those that do know it would be able to give us an definitive answer that doesn’t include the word ‘seem’

It gives passengers more choice, other than changing at say Birmingham New Street to get another train to Liverpool Lime Street. The price of a service from LNR would be more of a cost that people can afford, more so than the cost of train tickets with Avanti West Coast. I am also thinking that a service going straight from Euston to Liverpool Lime Street would also be easier for the disabled to access with LNR, than the class 390, 805 or 807 with AWC.

They wouldn’t change at Birmingham. They’d change at Crewe which is far better for this purpose. Also what is the problem with the disabled area on a 390, 805 or 807 (not that the latter 2 have been in service yet?) They are compliant.

You already have services that go from either Rugby or Northampton or Birmingham to Crewe. You also have services that travel London Euston to Birmingham New Street, so I would have thought that it would be more cost effective to combine these services with those that travel onwards to Liverpool Lime Street and extend the services from Birmingham New Street from Crewe to Manchester Piccadilly.

Do the paths line up across New Street and what are the cost savings in doing this without the phrase ‘I would have thought’?

 

[Starmill]

I seem to recall that LNWR do an off-peak return for around £45 from Crewe to London. Maybe add on another fiver for the extra bit to Manc.

They also have some units about to go off-lease, so have some stock that could go towards it.

Also, the routes between Crewe and Piccadilly don't seem too overstretched for capacity either.

This is already available from Manchester to London using Transport for Wales between Manchester Piccadilly and Crewe, with London Northwestern Railway between Crewe and London Euston.

Sadly the Transport for Wales services are roughly at capacity between Crewe and Manchester, and the Northern services are between Stockport and Manchester.

I think your £50.20 would be going up for a start.

Given there's already a Manchester to London Off Peak return for £50.40 using West Midlands Trains then I guess you're right but only by a maximum of 20p? In any case the Super Off Peak Return is £39.20.

I’m no expert on this route but I’m sure those that do know it would be able to give us an definitive answer that doesn’t include the word ‘seem’

There's no capacity for an additional service in the daytime. You won't get rights across Cheadle Hulme and into Manchester Piccadilly.

 

[The Planner]

Also, the routes between Crewe and Piccadilly don't seem too overstretched for capacity either.

Errrr no....

 

[paul1609]

This is already available from Manchester to London using Transport for Wales between Manchester Piccadilly and Crewe, with London Northwestern Railway between Crewe and London Euston.

Sadly the Transport for Wales services are roughly at capacity between Crewe and Manchester, and the Northern services are between Stockport and Manchester.

Wouldnt it make sense to terminate the 2 or 3 car diesel tfw service at Crewe and extend the electric 8 car Lnwr service to Picadilly?

 

[jfollows]

Also, the routes between Crewe and Piccadilly don't seem too overstretched for capacity either.

I don't see any spare capacity, I just did a "thought experiment" with today's mix of services which didn't take into account conflicts at Cheadle Hulme either, and the mix of

• 2 fast trains (Wilmslow and Stockport only)
• 1 stopping train from Crewe to Stockport
• 1 semi-fast from Crewe to Wilmslow
• 1 stopping train from Alderley Edge to Stockport
• 1 freight train from Sandbach to Wilmslow

don't leave room for more services, I don't think, my hypothetical hour had run out with these services so no room for an additional fast train, for example. However my experiment wasn't rigorous and I'm not doing this as my job. Scheduling trains to use Chelford Loop wouldn't be good for reliability, either, I don't think.

Wouldnt it make sense to terminate the 2 or 3 car diesel tfw service at Crewe and extend the electric 8 car Lnwr service to Picadilly?

It might if the connection at Crewe between the two were to be held, but it won't be, and Cardiff-Manchester would no longer be a reliable service ..... well, it isn't today, but at least the passengers usually get as far as Wilmslow.
Personally, it'd be great, because I avoid the Cardiff-Manchester services for my trips Wilmslow-Manchester because they're usually late and usually full.

 

[Starmill]

Wouldnt it make sense to terminate the 2 or 3 car diesel tfw service at Crewe and extend the electric 8 car Lnwr service to Picadilly?

Yes. That'd be a solid commercial benefit. Sadly there are two enormous problems: firstly it would be far too popular and the trains would be overwhelmed south of Stafford, and secondly the Welsh Government would go entirely bananas at the idea of losing their direct South Wales to Manchester service.

 

[jfollows]

Yes. That'd be a solid commercial benefit. Sadly there are two enormous problems: firstly it would be far too popular and the trains would be overwhelmed south of Stafford, and secondly the Welsh Government would go entirely bananas at the idea of losing their direct South Wales to Manchester service.

The second could be partially fixed if passengers for connecting services Crewe to Manchester could use any train by any operator, even if on an advance ticket, given that the connections at Crewe would doubtless be missed. But this blows up the basis of railway ticketing today, in a good way, but not likely to happen.

 

[A S Leib]

If Northern services to London could be done at all, wouldn't it be best to try via the Midland Main Line? I know that it's slower than the WCML / ECML, but there's currently no equivalent to GC / HT / WMT fares directly from Leicester, Nottingham, Derby or Sheffield to London. Granted, changing at Grantham, Tamworth or Doncaster isn't necessarily much slower, let alone the cost savings, but I'd suspect that a budget service from South or West Yorkshire via Leicester would be more capable of producing more demand.

I don't know if there's space for it though; I'd guess CrossCountry would want to keep paths for an hourly Newcastle – Reading north of Derby and I think the domestic high level platforms at St. Pancras have less space than pre-pandemic because of the Corby services.

 

[Sad Sprinter]

Yes. That'd be a solid commercial benefit. Sadly there are two enormous problems: firstly it would be far too popular and the trains would be overwhelmed south of Stafford, and secondly the Welsh Government would go entirely bananas at the idea of losing their direct South Wales to Manchester service.

XC split and join and Birmingham with Bournemouth services?

 

[Philip]

Yes. That'd be a solid commercial benefit. Sadly there are two enormous problems: firstly it would be far too popular and the trains would be overwhelmed south of Stafford, and secondly the Welsh Government would go entirely bananas at the idea of losing their direct South Wales to Manchester service.

Unless the South Wales-Manchester went via Warrington & the Chat Moss line into Victoria?

 

[The Planner]

Wouldnt it make sense to terminate the 2 or 3 car diesel tfw service at Crewe and extend the electric 8 car Lnwr service to Picadilly?

Yes. That'd be a solid commercial benefit. Sadly there are two enormous problems: firstly it would be far too popular and the trains would be overwhelmed south of Stafford, and secondly the Welsh Government would go entirely bananas at the idea of losing their direct South Wales to Manchester service.

It would be a relative loss in revenue as well as the WG going mad. Cardiff Manchester earns a big chunk of cash, more than what cheap tickets via LNWR would bring. Especially with the journey time penalty it would bring to TfW passengers. Without finding an extra path, the LNWR arrives xx.54 and the TfW path is xx.30 northbound, southbound is better as the TfW arrives at xx.10 with the LNWR going at xx13, you couldn't actually make that any better if you tried to join a path, but it doesn't work as a connection to the two journeys as Crewe requires 10 minutes. If you tried to extend the LNWR path, it would need to leave at xx.56, and be reliable as hell or the down fast Glasgow behind it would get clattered. The next issue is the Crewe stopper, that leaves at xx.46, you will run that down at Wilmslow.

XC split and join and Birmingham with Bournemouth services?

What do you mean? XC don't spit and join at New St.

 

[Sad Sprinter]

It would be a relative loss in revenue as well as the WG going mad. Cardiff Manchester earns a big chunk of cash, more than what cheap tickets via LNWR would bring. Especially with the journey time penalty it would bring to TfW passengers. Without finding an extra path, the LNWR arrives xx.54 and the TfW path is xx.30 northbound, southbound is better as the TfW arrives at xx.10 with the LNWR going at xx13, you couldn't actually make that any better if you tried to join a path, but it doesn't work as a connection to the two journeys as Crewe requires 10 minutes. If you tried to extend the LNWR path, it would need to leave at xx.56, and be reliable as hell or the down fast Glasgow behind it would get clattered. The next issue is the Crewe stopper, that leaves at xx.46, you will run that down at Wilmslow.


What do you mean? XC don't spit and join at New St.

As an alternative to losing the TfW service to Manchester. You could add a unit to the Manchester to Bournemouth service to continue to Cardiff

 

[yorksrob]

Just looking randomly an OP return is coming up at £50.20. Can I ask how you’ve calculated the ‘extra fiver’ Crewe to Manchester please or have you plucked a number out of the sky? Bear in mind the cost of setting it up regardless of which TOC would work it would need to be recouped somehow (additional staff, additional rolling stock, training costs, track access charges). I think your £50.20 would be going up for a start.

As mentioned this would be a cost above what is budgeted. Bear in mind the reason why the 350/2’s are being handed back.

I know you really hate it when costs are put up as reasons to push back but this would be a business decision regardless of what you think, it needs to make money to make improvements. The large additional costs would have to be recouped and if they can’t be then they aren’t going to do it. Crewe is not the worst place to change trains.

Have you accounted for freight in this capacity? I’m no expert on this route but I’m sure those that do know it would be able to give us an definitive answer that doesn’t include the word ‘seem’

They wouldn’t change at Birmingham. They’d change at Crewe which is far better for this purpose. Also what is the problem with the disabled area on a 390, 805 or 807 (not that the latter 2 have been in service yet?) They are compliant.

Do the paths line up across New Street and what are the cost savings in doing this without the phrase ‘I would have thought’?

The OP return may have gone up a little since I used it, but it's still excellent value.

My £5 extra was a bit of a finger in the air job but I was aiming to be roughly proportional to the additional length of journey.

This is already available from Manchester to London using Transport for Wales between Manchester Piccadilly and Crewe, with London Northwestern Railway between Crewe and London Euston.

Sadly the Transport for Wales services are roughly at capacity between Crewe and Manchester, and the Northern services are between Stockport and Manchester.


Given there's already a Manchester to London Off Peak return for £50.40 using West Midlands Trains then I guess you're right but only by a maximum of 20p? In any case the Super Off Peak Return is £39.20.


There's no capacity for an additional service in the daytime. You won't get rights across Cheadle Hulme and into Manchester Piccadilly.

I wasn't aware that there was a joint ticketing arrangement with ATW, however I agree with your point regarding those trains being at capacity. Conversely, when I've used the Northern stopper from Crewe, there's generally been plenty of space.

Errrr no....

I don't see any spare capacity, I just did a "thought experiment" with today's mix of services which didn't take into account conflicts at Cheadle Hulme either, and the mix of

• 2 fast trains (Wilmslow and Stockport only)
• 1 stopping train from Crewe to Stockport
• 1 semi-fast from Crewe to Wilmslow
• 1 stopping train from Alderley Edge to Stockport
• 1 freight train from Sandbach to Wilmslow

don't leave room for more services, I don't think, my hypothetical hour had run out with these services so no room for an additional fast train, for example. However my experiment wasn't rigorous and I'm not doing this as my job. Scheduling trains to use Chelford Loop wouldn't be good for reliability, either, I don't think.


It might if the connection at Crewe between the two were to be held, but it won't be, and Cardiff-Manchester would no longer be a reliable service ..... well, it isn't today, but at least the passengers usually get as far as Wilmslow.
Personally, it'd be great, because I avoid the Cardiff-Manchester services for my trips Wilmslow-Manchester because they're usually late and usually full.

Regarding track capacity, ok looks can be deceiving - there looks to be a lot of multiple track, but the bit North of Stockport is a bottleneck.

As @Iskra has mentioned, perhaps a ticketing arrangement between LNWR and Northern is the way to go. This could achieve the cheap, flexible fare without any additional rolling stock cost.

 

[jfollows]

Regarding track capacity, ok looks can be deceiving - there looks to be a lot of multiple track, but the bit North of Stockport is a bottleneck.

Two track, from Crewe, but reversible Crewe Sandbach to Cheadle Hulme. Two track but not reversible Cheadle Hulme to Adswood Road Junction, then four track to Manchester. Freight uses separate lines to join at Sandbach. Chelford loop is available for passenger trains as well as freight, but generally not used much (the back platform at Sandbach is instead used to hold down stopping trains for fast trains to pass there more usually). The reversible signalling does get used in case of disruption, eg train failures. It's not a bad setup but it's realistically at a sensible capacity limit.

 

[RobShipway]

They wouldn’t change at Birmingham. They’d change at Crewe which is far better for this purpose. Also what is the problem with the disabled area on a 390, 805 or 807 (not that the latter 2 have been in service yet?) They are compliant.

Have you tried getting on a class 390 or class 8xx unit with being in a wheelchair? The trains are not compliant, if you talk to people within the disabled community with regards having to book tickets about 4 - 6 weeks in advance and then you have to believe that you will be lucky on the day with station staff etc.... as demonstrated by a recent video posted on Youtube, where a train entered Kings Cross station the wrong way round for a disabled person to be able to enter the train.

Do the paths line up across New Street and what are the cost savings in doing this without the phrase ‘I would have thought’?

Admittedly, this does not answer your question. But surely, it is more expensive to have a service from Euston to Birmingham and then another to Crewe/Liverpool when the services could be combined?

With regards to timing, well you have the 07:23 from London Euston that arrives at Birmingham New Street at 09:45. At 09:52 you have a service that starts at Birmingham New Street that has a destination of Crewe. Maybe these services could be combined? Also, how much is the cost of setting up the two sets of trains?

 

[jfollows]

With regards to timing, well you have the 07:23 from London Euston that arrives at Birmingham New Street at 09:45. At 09:52 you have a service that starts at Birmingham New Street that has a destination of Crewe. Maybe these services could be combined? Also, how much is the cost of setting up the two sets of trains?

The problem is that the 07:23 from London Euston is supposed to arrive at Birmingham New Street at 09:45, and when it doesn't it would cause the following train to be delayed if they're joined in the way you suggest. This was attempted a couple of years ago and was a complete disaster, as has already been mentioned above.

 

[Energy]

Why would a Northern service be cheaper than Avanti?

A stopping service means paying staff for longer and using rolling stock for longer. LNWR London to Birmingham works as a lot of its traffic isn't end to end, it gets a lot from Coventry - Birmingham, Northampton - London etc.

If 85% of your traffic is London - Manchester then why spend time and money stopping a lot enroute.

I think it better to extend the LNR service to Manchester Piccadilly/Liverpool Lime Street, maybe having a train every other hour to both stations. But I think you would have to incorporate the LNR/WMT Birmingham New Street - Liverpool Lime Street services.

The LNWR London - Birmingham - Liverpool services really didn't work, they got stuck at Birmingham so had appalling reliability and didn't help anyone significantly.

South of (and including) Rugby you'd be far quicker going up the Trent Valley and changing at Crewe than the slow way via Birmingham and Wolverhampton. For Coventry/Berkswell area the change at New St is pretty easy.

 

[dk1]

Yes the retained units are the 30 x 350/1 and 10 each of /3 & /4 sub classes.

The 37 x 350/2’s are coming off lease.

Cheers for the info.

 

[Philip]

An alternative route could be Marylebone via Shrewsbury, if no space on the WCML. Basically Manchester-Crewe-Shrewsbury via Bolton/Chat Moss & then the same route that the former Wrexham & Shropshire used (avoiding New Street), but running non-stop after Leamington Spa to avoid fare abstraction fron the local stations on the Chiltern route.

Northern would need more DMUs, bi-modes/hybrid or loco-hauled to run it but this wouldn't be a major obstacle. The single line south of Coventry may present capacity problems, but this needs doubling as it's an intercity line, so money should be spent on this anyway.